Part 3 Results and Conclusion a) Survey for managers
Respondents are the junior and senior management of finance, accounting, cost accounting, and across-border operations departments of pharmaceutical sector.
Quantity of respondent are 37 persons(direct questioning face to face), respondent from e-mail questioning is 54 persons, respondent from special created group in Russian social set in Internet “vkontacte” 150 persons. The 1 to 17are indicator number (see the interview questions p.76a). The 1 is low level of using the 6 is high.
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
6 |
0.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Conclusion
The results are to show that main part of middle management use the indicators that not distinguish the time value of project they don’t use the forecasts cash flow and mainly use the accounting information.
B) Survey for specialist
Respondent are senior and top management of finance, invest, accounting, cost accounting and across-border operations departments of pharmaceutical sector.
Quantity of respondents is 25 person (direct questioning face to face), respondent from e-mail questioning 35 persons. The 1 to 17are indicator number (see the interview questions p.77b). The 1 is low level of using the 6 is high.
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
3.5 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
2.5 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
Conclusion
The same situation with senior and top management, but this group has the high level of business education and these results to show high level to use DCF method and information that use the forecasted cash flow. Difficult to say about same performance pyramid of indicator and main decision is made on accounting dares.
C) Survey of experts
Respondent are senior and top management of pharmaceutical company “Zdorovie Ludi”.
Quantity of respondent is 25 persons.
a) Estimation of probability the WACC of the company
Expert’s estimation Optimistic is 0.1226; Most Probable is 0.1338, and Pessimistic is 0.1499
b) Estimation of probability of discount rate which base on MIBOR as risk-free rate in RADR method.
Expert’s estimation Optimistic is 25.275; Most Probable is 25.9880, and Pessimistic is 26.4999
c) Estimation of probability of discount rate which base on WACC as risk-free rate in
RADR method.
Expert’s estimation Optimistic is 23.5171; Most Probable is 24.4988, and Pessimistic is 24.4988
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18 See the Appendix 1-7 Simulation Model and Scenario Analysis calculations.
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