- •Abstract
- •1. Introduction
- •1.1. Background
- •1.2. Problem and research questions
- •1.3. Aim and Limitation
- •1.4. Outline of thesis
- •1.5. Abbreviation and definition
- •Irr Internal Rate of Return
- •2. Method
- •2.1. Approach
- •2.2. Data collection method
- •2.3. Primary data
- •2.4. Secondary data
- •2.5. Data processing
- •2.6. Validity, reliability and generalization
- •3. Theories
- •3.1. Principal-Agent Problems
- •3.2. Wacc and opportunity cost of capital
- •3.3. Capm and apt
- •3.4. Estimating β
- •3.4.1. Operating leverage and β
- •3.5. The risk and discount rates for international projects
- •3.6. Purposes of performance measurement
- •3.6.1. Eva, Book roi, and ep
- •3.7. Working capital, depreciation and tax
- •4. Own research
- •4.1. Review of pharmaceutical market in Russia
- •3.1.1. Russian companies and them place in market
- •3.1.2. Pharmaceutical company “Zdorovie Ludi”
- •3.2. Research strategy (Roadmap of decision)
- •3.3. International and European contracts
- •3.4. National contracting in a global economy
- •3.5. National contract low and human rights
- •3.6. (Step 1) Juristic analyses and common mistakes of the contract
- •3.6.1. The formation and scope of a contract:
- •3.6.2. The content of a contract:
- •3.6.3. Policing a contract:
- •3.6.4. Performance, discharge and breach of the contract:
- •3.7. (Step 2) Controlling of strategy and consideration the contract as investment project
- •3.8. Transformation the contract to the invest project
- •Risk of delivery (for buyer)
- •Techniques of payment (risk for buyer)
- •3.9. (Step3) Forecast of outflow and inflow
- •3.10. (Step 4) Determination the risk and discount rate
- •3.10.1. Country risk analysis
- •3.11. Commercial counterparty risk analysis
- •3.12. (Step 5) Procedure of estimation and comparison of the contract
- •3.13. Book Rate of Return (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.14. Payback Period and Discounted-Payback Period (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15. Internal (or discounted-cash-flow) rate of return (irr) and mirr (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15.1. Lending or borrowing position
- •3.15.2. Multiple rates of returns
- •3.15.3. Mutually exclusive projects
- •3.16. The cost of capital for near-term and distant cash flows
- •3.17. Profitability Index (pi, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18. Net Present Value (npv, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18.1 Calculate npv with glance of inflation
- •3.18.2 Calculating npv in other countries and currencies
- •3.19. (Step 6) Performance and agency problems
- •4. Results
- •4.1. Simulation model analysis and calculation
- •4.2.1. Wacc as discount rate
- •4.2.2. Manager’s working capital use penalty points
- •4.2.3. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate (radr) and ceq
- •4.3. Summary of Simulation model analysis
- •4.4. Scenario analysis and calculation
- •4.4.1. Discount rates that based on wacc
- •4.4.2. Discount rates that based on radr
- •4.5. Summary of scenario analysis
- •4.6. Final analysis and Decision Card (Step 7)
- •Decision Card
- •4.7. What could be improved and suggestion for future research.
- •Conclusion
- •References
- •Appendix 1 – 7 (Simulation Model and Scenario analysis calculation) (Excel) Appendix 1 (Excel)
- •Appendix 2 (Excel)
- •Appendix 3 (Excel)
- •Appendix 4 (Excel)
- •Appendix 5 (Excel)
- •Appendix 6 (Excel)
- •Appendix 7 (Excel)
- •Appendix 8 (Interview questions and structure of survey) part 1
- •A) Survey for managers
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Part 2 Survey of experts
- •Part 3 Results and Conclusion a) Survey for managers
- •Conclusion
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Conclusion
- •C) Survey of experts
3.15.3. Mutually exclusive projects
The IRR rule may give the wrong ranking of mutually exclusive projects that differ in economic life or scale of required investment. If we use The IRR to rank mutually exclusive projects, we must examine the IRR on each incremental investment. Consider project A and B:
|
Cash Flows ($) |
|||
Project |
C0 |
C1 |
IRR (%) |
NPV at 10% |
A |
-10.000 |
+20.000 |
100 |
+8.18 |
B |
-20.000 |
+35.000 |
75 |
+11.818 |
Table 3.8
Projects A and В both are good investments, but В has the higher NPV and is, therefore, better. If manager follow the IRR rule, manager has satisfaction of earning a 100 percent rate of return; if manager follow the NPV rule, manager is $11.818 richer. It is possible to salvage the IRR rule in this case by looking at the internal rate of return on the incremental flows. And manager asks themselves whether it is worth making the additional investment in В. The incremental flows from undertaking В rather than an are as follows:
|
Cash Flows ($) |
|
|||
Project |
C0 |
C1 |
IRR (%) |
NPV at 10% |
|
B-A |
-10.000 |
+13.000 |
50 |
+3.636 |
Table 3.9
The IRR on the incremental investment is 50 percent, which is also well in excess of the 10 percent opportunity cost of capital. So we should prefer project В to project A. Sometimes manager may have problems when series of incremental cash flows may involve several changes in sign. In this case there are likely to be multiple IRRs and we will be forced to use the NPV rule after all.
3.16. The cost of capital for near-term and distant cash flows
The cost of capital for near-term cash flows may be different from the cost for distant cash flows. The IRR rule requires us to compare the project’s IRR with the opportunity cost of capital. But sometimes there is an opportunity cost of capital for one year cash flows, a different cost of capital for two-year cash flows, and so on. In these cases there is no simple yardstick for evaluating the IRR of project. It is possible to assume that the opportunity cost of capital is the same for all the cash flows, C1, C2, C3, etc.
NPV = (3.7)
The IRR rules tell us to accept a project if the IRR is greater than the opportunity cost of capital. But what do we do when we have several opportunity cost of capital? Managers may have trouble for the IRR whenever the term structure of interest rates becomes important. Many firms use the IRR, thereby implicitly assuming that there is no difference between short-term and long-term rate of interest. They do this for simplicity. Four examples manager had given of things that can go wrong with IRR. This does not mean that IRR is worse the other measures. The IRR rule is less easy to use than NPV, but, used properly it gives the same result.
|
Cash Flows ($) |
|||||
Project |
C0 |
C1 |
C2 |
C3 |
IRR (%) |
NPV at 8% |
A |
-9.0 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
15.58 |
1.4 |
B |
-9,000 |
2,560 |
3,540 |
4,530 |
8.01 |
1.4 |
Table 3.10