- •Abstract
- •1. Introduction
- •1.1. Background
- •1.2. Problem and research questions
- •1.3. Aim and Limitation
- •1.4. Outline of thesis
- •1.5. Abbreviation and definition
- •Irr Internal Rate of Return
- •2. Method
- •2.1. Approach
- •2.2. Data collection method
- •2.3. Primary data
- •2.4. Secondary data
- •2.5. Data processing
- •2.6. Validity, reliability and generalization
- •3. Theories
- •3.1. Principal-Agent Problems
- •3.2. Wacc and opportunity cost of capital
- •3.3. Capm and apt
- •3.4. Estimating β
- •3.4.1. Operating leverage and β
- •3.5. The risk and discount rates for international projects
- •3.6. Purposes of performance measurement
- •3.6.1. Eva, Book roi, and ep
- •3.7. Working capital, depreciation and tax
- •4. Own research
- •4.1. Review of pharmaceutical market in Russia
- •3.1.1. Russian companies and them place in market
- •3.1.2. Pharmaceutical company “Zdorovie Ludi”
- •3.2. Research strategy (Roadmap of decision)
- •3.3. International and European contracts
- •3.4. National contracting in a global economy
- •3.5. National contract low and human rights
- •3.6. (Step 1) Juristic analyses and common mistakes of the contract
- •3.6.1. The formation and scope of a contract:
- •3.6.2. The content of a contract:
- •3.6.3. Policing a contract:
- •3.6.4. Performance, discharge and breach of the contract:
- •3.7. (Step 2) Controlling of strategy and consideration the contract as investment project
- •3.8. Transformation the contract to the invest project
- •Risk of delivery (for buyer)
- •Techniques of payment (risk for buyer)
- •3.9. (Step3) Forecast of outflow and inflow
- •3.10. (Step 4) Determination the risk and discount rate
- •3.10.1. Country risk analysis
- •3.11. Commercial counterparty risk analysis
- •3.12. (Step 5) Procedure of estimation and comparison of the contract
- •3.13. Book Rate of Return (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.14. Payback Period and Discounted-Payback Period (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15. Internal (or discounted-cash-flow) rate of return (irr) and mirr (Advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.15.1. Lending or borrowing position
- •3.15.2. Multiple rates of returns
- •3.15.3. Mutually exclusive projects
- •3.16. The cost of capital for near-term and distant cash flows
- •3.17. Profitability Index (pi, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18. Net Present Value (npv, advantages and disadvantages)
- •3.18.1 Calculate npv with glance of inflation
- •3.18.2 Calculating npv in other countries and currencies
- •3.19. (Step 6) Performance and agency problems
- •4. Results
- •4.1. Simulation model analysis and calculation
- •4.2.1. Wacc as discount rate
- •4.2.2. Manager’s working capital use penalty points
- •4.2.3. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate (radr) and ceq
- •4.3. Summary of Simulation model analysis
- •4.4. Scenario analysis and calculation
- •4.4.1. Discount rates that based on wacc
- •4.4.2. Discount rates that based on radr
- •4.5. Summary of scenario analysis
- •4.6. Final analysis and Decision Card (Step 7)
- •Decision Card
- •4.7. What could be improved and suggestion for future research.
- •Conclusion
- •References
- •Appendix 1 – 7 (Simulation Model and Scenario analysis calculation) (Excel) Appendix 1 (Excel)
- •Appendix 2 (Excel)
- •Appendix 3 (Excel)
- •Appendix 4 (Excel)
- •Appendix 5 (Excel)
- •Appendix 6 (Excel)
- •Appendix 7 (Excel)
- •Appendix 8 (Interview questions and structure of survey) part 1
- •A) Survey for managers
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Part 2 Survey of experts
- •Part 3 Results and Conclusion a) Survey for managers
- •Conclusion
- •B) Survey for specialist
- •Conclusion
- •C) Survey of experts
4.7. What could be improved and suggestion for future research.
This thesis has tried to adopt a invest decision approaches to valuing the cross-border contract. Further empirical work is required to test this approaches in real business. I did a lot of assumption in research. The main problem was gaining access to the reliability data it was a major barrier.
I think that the research can be improved by the SWOT analysis of methods of the estimation the project (contract), with both strong and weak sides, opportunities and threat of each topic which are shown separately in detail.
To another hand, I had the cash flow problems in topic (2.3 Step 3). The activities of the financial manager about forecasted CF present the first several steps to create a short-term financing plan. The next step means that financial managers cover the forecasted requirements in the way possible for the firm.
First Second Third Fourth
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
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New borrowing: |
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1. Bank loan |
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2. Stretching payable |
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3. Total |
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Repayment: |
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4. Bank loan |
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5. Stretching payables |
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6. Total |
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7. Net new borrowing |
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8. Plus securities sold |
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9. Less securities bought |
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10. Total cash raised |
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Interest payments: |
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11. Bank loan |
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12. Stretching payables |
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13. Interest on securities sold |
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14. Net interest paid |
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15. Cash required for operation |
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16. Total cash required |
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Figure 4.5
In Figure 4.5 it is possible to see proximately short-term financing plan, in the top of the table possible to see that I divide the planning process into a quarter and a month. The divided in quarters plan is usually the method used by the majority of company, but if I have interest in payment which is usually calculated monthly it is better to forecast CF the same method. Other advantages of calculating the plan per moths are possibilities to delegate the same responsibility to junior managers and they will plan the cash flow on their own level, per month and the senior managers- per quarters. All levels of financial managers will take part in the processes of planning and will improve trial and error that helps them to understand the real nature of the problem the firm faces. Manager must keep on thinking about improvements.
At the same time a short-term financing plan requires the crucial calculation. Working out the plan can be delegate to the computer. Most corporations have created short-term financial planning models. All these models are usually simulation programs. Smaller companies can build the model by Excel programs. The short-term financial planning helps the company to optimize the budget.
When the managers of all level complete the last roadmap (Step 7 Decision Card) they collect crucial number of useful information. It is bringing the company extra possibilities.
C ollecting the date
Figure 4.6
The company can have the possibility to make more accurate forecast and complete the plan. Even more the company can have remarkable and useful date in real time, not as accounting date after several times, for decision about short-term borrowing such as:
Bank loan.
Commercial Paper (CP).
Short-Term Notes (STN).
Medium-Term Notes (MTN).
The STN and MTN are very interesting financial tools, the importance of which is increased at a current period. The bank loans will be expensive, IPO only one time, but CP in this situation, in times of crisis is very interesting and cheap tools for borrowing. I think that these financial tools will be developing in Russian Federation in the nearest future.
For the future research the area of Commercial Paper (CP) would be highly topical, in other words the market share of Short-Term Note (STN) and Medium-Term Note (MTN) will increase essentially after the crisis.