- •Contents
- •Preface
- •Chronology of Main Events
- •Introduction
- •The Systemic Challenge
- •Global Implications
- •A New Approach
- •Conclusion
- •Role of Policy Intellectuals
- •Current Dynamics
- •Reevaluation of Reform
- •Debating Development
- •Policy Response
- •Democracy Debated
- •Official Line Weighs In
- •Foreign Policy: Rise of Nationalism or Peaceful Rise?
- •Looking Ahead
- •Putting Theory into Practice
- •Rhetoric Versus Reality
- •Ongoing Support for the Party
- •Conclusion and Recommendations
- •From Decentralization to Recentralization
- •Current Factors Causing Center-Local Friction
- •How Center-Local Relations Affect Key Policies (and Why the United States Should Care)
- •What It Means for Hu and Wen
- •Steps the Center Is Taking
- •Implications for the United States and Policy Recommendations
- •Corruption Rising to a Plateau
- •Threat of “Local Kleptocracies”
- •Is the Party Over?
- •Causes of Corruption Debated
- •Conclusion and Recommendations
- •Sources of China’s Economic Growth
- •Rethinking China’s Growth Strategy
- •Promoting Consumption-Driven Growth
- •China’s Pursuit of Consumption-Driven Growth
- •Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
- •Evolution of Energy Demand in China
- •Investment-Led Energy Surprise
- •Local and Global Implications
- •The Domestic Response
- •The Energy Footprint of a Rebalanced Chinese Economy
- •Conclusions and Policy Agenda
- •Why Does China Care about Taiwan?
- •Why Has the United States Cared about Taiwan?
- •Why Does the United States Still Care about Taiwan?
- •Limits to US Support
- •Alternative Approaches to Dealing with the Taiwan Impasse
- •How Should the United States Think about Taiwan Today?
- •China’s Assessment of Its Military Needs
- •Key Elements of China’s Military Modernization
- •Future of PLA Modernization
- •US Response to China’s Military Modernization
- •Role of Soft Power in Chinese Foreign Policy
- •China’s International Relationships
- •China’s Impact on the International System
- •Implications for the United States of China’s Rise in Global Influence
- •Bibliography
- •About the Authors
- •About the Organizations
- •Acknowledgments
- •Index
Acknowledgments
The authors express their great appreciation to the following people for their support of the China Balance Sheet Project.
Project co-chairs: C. Fred Bergsten and John J. Hamre
Advisory committee: See list on page 255
Senior advisers: Bates Gill and Ben W. Heineman, Jr.
Project adviser: Adam S. Posen
Contributing authors: David Finkelstein, Trevor Houser, Melissa Murphy, Daniel H. Rosen, and Andrew Wedeman
Editorial adviser: Carla Freeman
Project coordinators: Eve Cary and Carl Rubenstein Research associates: Giwon Jeong and Alyson Slack
Research interns: Shiuan-ju Chen, Orlando Crosby, Fergus Green, Xuan Gui, Liana Lim Hinch, Arthur Kaneko, Roy Levy, Stephen Meyers, Prashanth Parameswaran, Alexis Rado, Shelley Su, Pak To Wong, and Xiao Zhang
Copyeditor and editorial coordinator: Madona Devasahayam
Publication team: Marla Banov, Jim Dunton, Susann Luetjen, David Roth, and Edward A. Tureen
The China Balance Sheet Project
Advisory Committee
We have been fortunate to be able to draw on the extensive knowledge of a remarkable group of experts on China and US-China relations, representing a range of perspectives. Many of these advisers participated in brainstorming meetings or provided comments on draft versions of this volume, and we are deeply grateful for their guidance and support. However, the findings and opinions expressed in this book solely reflect those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of our advisers or other supporters.
Among those from whom we solicited views are:
William Alford, Harvard University Law School Jonathan Anderson, UBS Investment Bank Jeffrey Bader, Brookings Institution
Charlene Barshefsky, WilmerHale Doug Bereuter, The Asia Foundation
Samuel Berger, Stonebridge International, LLC Dennis Blair, National Bureau of Asian Research
Pieter Bottelier, School of Advanced International Studies Richard Bush, Brookings Institution
Kurt Campbell, Center for a New American Security Richard Cooper, Harvard University
Bruce Dickson, George Washington University Thomas Donilon, O’Melveny & Myers, LLP Michael Dooley, University of California
Robert Ebel, Center for Strategic and International Studies Elizabeth Economy, Council on Foreign Relations
James Feinerman, Georgetown University William Ferguson, Citigroup
256 CHINA’S RISE
Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University David Finkelstein, CNA
Charles Freeman, Center for Strategic and International Studies Michael Gadbaw, General Electric Company, retd.
Paul Gewirtz, Yale University
Bonnie Glaser, Center for Strategic and International Studies Morris Goldstein, Peterson Institute for International Economics Michael Goltzman, The Coca-Cola Company
Thomas Gottschalk, Kirkland & Ellis, LLP Maurice Greenberg, C.V. Starr & Company, Inc. Scott Hallford, Federal Express
Carol Lee Hamrin, Global China Center
Harry Harding, George Washington University Benjamin Heineman, Harvard Law School David Henson, Caterpillar Inc.
Carla Hills, Hills & Company Richard Holbrooke, Perseus, LLC Jamie Horsley, Yale University
Janet Howard, The Coca-Cola Company
Richard Jackson, Center for Strategic and International Studies L. Oakley Johnson, American International Group Inc.
James Kelly, Center for Strategic and International Studies Henry Kissinger, Center for Strategic and International Studies William Lane, Caterpillar Inc.
Lawrence Lau, Chinese University of Hong Kong Malcolm Lee, Microsoft China
Cheng Li, Hamilton College
Kenneth Lieberthal, University of Michigan James Lilley, former US Ambassador to China Xiaobo Lu, Columbia University
Keith Maskus, University of Colorado at Boulder Michael McDevitt, CNA
William McDonough, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Carola McGiffert, Center for Strategic and International Studies Eric McVadon, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis
Evan Medeiros, RAND Corporation R. Scott Miller, Procter & Gamble T. James Min, DHL Express
G. Mustafa Mohatarem, General Motors Corporation Peter Morici, University of Maryland
James Mulvenon, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis Kevin Nealer, Scowcroft Group
Paul Neureiter, ACE USA
Matt Niemeyer, ACE USA
Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics
ADVISORY COMMITTEE 257
Minxin Pei, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Dwight Perkins, Harvard University
Ernest Preeg, Manufacturers Alliance
Clyde Prestowitz, Economic Strategy Institute Jean Pritchard, The Boeing Company Thomas Rawski, University of Pittsburgh
William Reinsch, National Foreign Trade Council, Inc. Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
Alan Romberg, Henry L. Stimson Center Daniel Rosen, Rhodium Group
J. Stapleton Roy, Kissinger Associates, Inc. Scott Rozelle, Stanford University
James Sasser, Former Ambassador to China Phillip Saunders, National Defense University Randy Schriver, Armitage International Elizabeth Nash Schwartz, The Boeing Company Jeffrey Shafer, Citigroup
David Shambaugh, George Washington University
Anne Solomon, Center for Strategic and International Studies Michael Swaine, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Murray Scot Tanner, Consultant
Frederick Telling, Pfizer, Inc.
Anne Thurston, School of Advanced International Studies Jennifer Turner, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania
Stephen Yates, DC Asia Advisory, LLC Shirley Zebroski, General Motors Corporation