- •Distribution Overview
- •Discrete Distributions
- •Continuous Distributions
- •Probability Theory
- •Random Variables
- •Transformations
- •Expectation
- •Variance
- •Inequalities
- •Distribution Relationships
- •Probability and Moment Generating Functions
- •Multivariate Distributions
- •Standard Bivariate Normal
- •Bivariate Normal
- •Multivariate Normal
- •Convergence
- •Statistical Inference
- •Point Estimation
- •Empirical distribution
- •Statistical Functionals
- •Parametric Inference
- •Method of Moments
- •Maximum Likelihood
- •Delta Method
- •Multiparameter Models
- •Multiparameter delta method
- •Parametric Bootstrap
- •Hypothesis Testing
- •Bayesian Inference
- •Credible Intervals
- •Function of parameters
- •Priors
- •Conjugate Priors
- •Bayesian Testing
- •Exponential Family
- •Sampling Methods
- •The Bootstrap
- •Rejection Sampling
- •Importance Sampling
- •Decision Theory
- •Risk
- •Admissibility
- •Bayes Rule
- •Minimax Rules
- •Linear Regression
- •Simple Linear Regression
- •Prediction
- •Multiple Regression
- •Model Selection
- •Non-parametric Function Estimation
- •Density Estimation
- •Histograms
- •Kernel Density Estimator (KDE)
- •Smoothing Using Orthogonal Functions
- •Stochastic Processes
- •Markov Chains
- •Poisson Processes
- •Time Series
- •Stationary Time Series
- •Estimation of Correlation
- •Detrending
- •ARIMA models
- •Causality and Invertibility
- •Spectral Analysis
- •Math
- •Gamma Function
- •Beta Function
- •Series
- •Combinatorics
3.1 Transformations
Transformation function
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Z = '(X) |
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fZ(z) = P ['(X) = z] = P [fx : '(x) = zg] = P X 2 ' 1(z) = |
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f(x) |
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FZ(z) = P ['(X) z] = ZAz f(x) dx with Az = fx : '(x) zg |
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Special case if ' strictly monotone |
(z) = fX(x) |
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fZ(z) = fX(' 1(z)) |
dz ' 1 |
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The Rule of the Lazy Statistician
Z
E [Z] = '(x) dFX(x)
ZZ
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E [IA(x)] = IA(x) dFX(x) = |
A dFX(x) = P [X 2 A] |
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Convolution |
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Z0 |
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X;Y |
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Z := X + Y |
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fZ(z) = Z 1 fX;Y (x; z x) dx |
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fX;Y (x; z x) dx |
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Z := jX Y j |
fZ(z) = 2 Z0 |
1 fX;Y (x; z + x) dx |
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Z := |
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fZ(z) = Z 1 jxjfX;Y (x; xz) dx ??= |
Z 1 xfx(x)fX(x)fY (xz) dx |
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4Expectation
De nition and properties
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> xfX(x)
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Z> x
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E [X] = X = x dFX(x) =
Z
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> xf (x)
: X
P [X = c] = 1 =) E [c] = c
E [cX] = c E [X]
E [X + Y ] = E [X] + E [Y ]
Xdiscrete
Xcontinuous
E [XY ] = ZX;Y |
xyfX;Y (x; y) dFX(x) dFY (y) |
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E ['(Y )] 6= '(E [X]) (cf. Jensen inequality) |
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P [X Y ] = 0 =) E [X] E [Y ] ^ P [X = Y ] = 1 =) E [X] = E [Y ] |
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E [X] = P [X x] |
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x=1 |
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Sample mean |
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Conditional expectation |
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E [Y j X = x] = Z |
yf(y j x) dy |
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E [X] = E [E [X j Y ]] |
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E['(X; Y ) j X = x] = '(x; y)fY jX(y j x) dx
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Z1
E ['(Y; Z) j X = x] = '(y; z)f(Y;Z)jX(y; z j x) dy dz
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E [Y + Z j X] = E [Y j X] + E [Z j X]
E ['(X)Y j X] = '(X)E [Y j X]
E[Y j X] = c =) Cov [X; Y ] = 0
5Variance
De nition and properties
V |
[X] = 2 |
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[X])2 |
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E [X]2 |
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Xi# |
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Cov [Xi; Yj] |
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" n # n
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Xi = V [Xi] if Xi ?? Xj |
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Standard deviation
p
sd[X] = V [X] = X
Covariance
Cov [X; Y ] = E [(X E [X])(Y E [Y ])] = E [XY ] E [X] E [Y ]
Cov [X; a] = 0
Cov [X; X] = V [X]
Cov [X; Y ] = Cov [Y; X]
Cov [aX; bY ] = abCov [X; Y ]
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Cov [X + a; Y + b] = Cov [X; Y ]
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Correlation
Cov [X; Y ][X; Y ] = p
V [X] V [Y ]
Independence
X ?? Y =) [X; Y ] = 0 () Cov [X; Y ] = 0 () E [XY ] = E [X] E [Y ]
Sample variance
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V [Y j X] = E (Y E [Y j X])2 j X = E Y 2 j X E [Y j X]2 |
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V [Y ] = E [V [ |
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6Inequalities
Cauchy-Schwarz |
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Markov |
E [XY ]2 E X2 E Y 2 |
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P ['(X) t] |
E ['(X)] |
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Chebyshev |
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Chernoff |
P [X (1 + ) ] |
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Jensen |
E ['(X)] '(E [X]) |
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' convex |
7Distribution Relationships
Binomial
n
X
Xi Bern (p) =) Xi Bin (n; p)
i=1
X Bin (n; p) ; Y Bin (m; p) =) X + Y Bin (n + m; p)
limn!1 Bin (n; p) = Po (np) (n large, p small)
limn!1 Bin (n; p) = N (np; np(1 p)) (n large, p far from 0 and 1)
Negative Binomial |
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Geo (p) |
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X NBin (r; p) = |
Pi=1 Geo (p) |
PP
Xi NBin (ri; p) =) Xi NBin ( ri; p)
X NBin (r; p) : Y Bin (s + r; p) =) P [X s] = P [Y r]
Poisson
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Xi Po ( i) ^ Xi ?? Xj =) |
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Xi Po |
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Exponential |
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Xi |
Exp ( ) ^ Xi ?? Xj |
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Gamma (n; ) |
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Memoryless property: P [X > x + y j X > y] = P [X > x] Normal
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Z = aX + b =N |
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P [a < X b] = |
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00(x) = (x2 |
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Upper quantile of N (0; 1): z = 1(1 ) Gamma
X Gamma ( ; ) () X= Gamma ( ; 1)
Gamma ( ; ) Pi=1 Exp ( )
P P
Xi Gamma ( i; ) ^ Xi ?? Xj =) i i; )
( ) = Z 1 x 1e x dx0
Beta |
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x 1(1 x) 1 = |
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B( ; ) |
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Beta (1; 1) Unif (0; 1)
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