Этап №5: Прогнозирование с помощью 2мнк

Вид модели

Характеристики модели

S²

R²

F-статистика

С*=3,097t-1,422W₂+0.843G-3,888T+0.623Y_t-1-1,964P_t-1 +0.541K_t-1

3,210

99,87%

1937,49

I*=0.0488G-0.1096T-0,1801P_t-1+0,06830K_t-1

0,0151

99,67%

1504,95

W₁*=1,503t-1,147W₂+1,174G-3,164T +0,408Y_t-1-1.151P_t-1 +0.415K_t-1

1,0474

99,92%

2993,97

t

С*

I*

W1*

Y*

K*

P*

1

2

26,823

2,539

20,639

32,007

50,419

7,871

3

26,569

1,833

21,129

31,350

52,087

6,627

4

22,340

2,108

16,467

25,728

54,389

5,260

5

29,813

2,369

22,320

35,100

56,704

9,898

6

33,339

1,969

25,694

39,643

58,767

10,906

7

25,221

1,409

18,989

28,574

60,345

6,387

8

28,255

2,686

19,677

34,612

62,946

9,578

9

40,587

2,581

30,164

50,437

65,426

15,178

10

40,902

1,669

30,827

49,355

67,051

13,741

11

42,920

1,996

31,559

52,097

69,137

15,247

12

35,149

1,504

25,291

41,521

70,735

11,435

13

37,726

2,223

26,349

46,331

72,936

13,725

14

45,804

2,224

33,030

56,657

75,137

17,708

15

45,213

1,572

32,912

56,057

76,474

15,805

16

48,299

1,778

34,247

59,421

78,053

17,629

17

43,934

1,651

30,433

53,444

79,660

16,131

18

43,301

1,752

29,723

53,411

81,499

16,260

19

47,830

2,142

32,748

59,638

83,795

19,100

20

49,947

1,466

35,046

61,774

85,341

19,090

21

45,606

1,595

30,557

56,755

86,769

17,027

22

61,196

2,447

42,417

76,868

89,286

26,264

23

55,148

0,826

39,119

67,730

90,102

21,105

24

52,943

1,401

35,881

65,476

91,687

21,141

25

60,231

1,834

41,277

76,046

93,501

25,014

26

57,791

1,147

39,626

72,306

94,648

23,188

27

60,366

1,529

40,855

75,747

96,177

25,130

28

60,223

1,259

40,837

75,817

97,436

24,947

29

62,006

1,353

41,777

78,177

98,789

26,098

30

62,648

1,214

42,156

79,162

100,003

26,435

Вид модели

Характеристики модели

S²

R²

F-статистика

С’=2,311+0,7995(W₁*+W₂)+0,673P_t*-0,0323Р*_t-1

0,1065

99,92%

8003,28

I’=2.418+0,0876P*_t-1+ 0,1298P*_t-1

0,0169

92,08%

116,24

W₁’=-3.976+0.7450(Y*-T*-W₂*) +0.141_-1-1.1818t

0,1892

99,67%

1884,56

t

C'

I'

W1'

Y'

K'

P'

1

2

3

26,798

1,977

20,497

31,775

52,395

7,678

4

22,414

2,018

16,949

25,642

54,106

4,714

5

29,357

2,602

22,286

34,999

56,991

9,753

6

33,027

2,088

25,406

39,726

58,792

11,180

7

25,064

1,561

18,688

29,295

60,329

6,957

8

28,848

2,428

19,977

34,575

62,773

9,408

9

40,834

2,504

29,908

50,267

65,450

15,510

10

40,625

1,651

30,922

49,306

67,077

13,474

11

42,530

1,969

32,182

51,729

69,020

14,197

12

34,889

1,440

25,810

41,789

70,576

10,769

13

37,889

2,135

26,328

46,225

72,870

13,767

14

45,803

2,187

33,009

56,590

75,123

17,681

15

45,651

1,503

32,313

56,364

76,640

16,781

16

47,933

1,910

34,328

58,903

78,384

17,245

17

43,670

1,542

31,200

53,222

79,595

15,022

18

43,492

1,747

29,487

53,619

81,408

16,692

19

48,083

1,979

32,993

59,582

83,478

18,830

20

49,949

1,610

34,308

62,079

85,405

20,081

21

46,059

1,431

30,515

56,839

86,772

17,274

22

60,886

2,507

42,881

76,283

89,276

25,362

23

55,018

0,856

38,922

68,364

90,142

21,472

24

52,926

1,529

35,966

65,925

91,631

21,189

25

60,529

1,863

40,979

76,082

93,550

25,483

26

58,002

1,201

39,758

72,572

94,751

23,321

27

60,450

1,608

41,004

75,909

96,359

25,142

28

60,591

1,340

40,750

76,265

97,698

25,483

29

62,327

1,464

41,727

78,609

99,162

26,579

30

63,109

1,344

42,003

79,754

100,507

27,179