Этап 1: Оценка параметров с помощью 1мнк.

Вид модели

Характеристики модели

S²

R²

K_т

F-статистика

С’=2,32254+0,78334(W₁+W₂)+0,749586P-0,007542*Р_-1

0,2111

99,83%

0,0093

3255,20

I’=1,51148+0,05678Р+0,02457K_t-1

0,01386

93,62%

0,0574

83,09

W₁’=-3,40875+0,7437(Y-T-W₂)+0.118745Y_t-1+1,14296*t

0,34544

99,32%

0,0119

829,04

t

C_t

I_t

W1_t

Y_t

P_t

K_t

1

2

28,159

2,601

21,753

33,020

14,497

50,461

3

25,945

1,780

19,975

30,724

14,349

52,050

4

24,136

2,182

18,668

27,528

12,839

54,452

5

29,294

2,440

22,596

34,774

15,138

56,760

6

34,835

2,050

27,223

41,495

17,412

58,860

7

23,028

1,361

17,581

27,059

13,128

60,321

8

27,489

2,640

18,445

33,429

20,175

62,860

9

40,301

2,502

28,839

49,732

25,743

65,332

10

39,151

1,587

29,352

47,768

23,326

66,997

11

41,989

1,981

31,329

51,200

25,221

69,131

12

34,484

1,521

25,701

41,465

20,974

70,771

13

37,181

2,186

25,614

45,567

26,083

72,886

14

46,042

2,205

32,949

56,847

29,798

75,115

15

47,025

1,519

33,575

57,754

31,448

76,449

16

46,843

1,731

33,182

57,634

31,781

78,021

17

44,510

1,725

31,826

54,245

29,419

79,745

18

42,793

1,712

28,990

52,885

31,335

81,462

19

50,638

2,235

35,233

62,393

34,920

83,875

20

50,140

1,447

34,858

62,107

34,939

85,347

21

45,544

1,554

29,994

56,448

35,504

86,734

22

61,243

2,511

42,603

76,644

42,081

89,331

23

56,021

0,892

40,071

69,403

37,302

90,222

24

53,491

1,474

36,856

66,434

38,348

91,774

25

58,974

1,822

39,254

74,486

44,851

93,492