The Economist February 2013

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Thu, Jan 24 2013 Leading economic

Indicators point to quicker growth

A gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose in December, pointing to an improvement in growth despite an ongoing political fight in Washington over fiscal policy.The private Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index gained 0.5 percent to 93.9 last month, after being unchanged in November.

A drop in new claims for jobless benefits helped drive the gain, as did an increase in new building permits."A pickup in domestic growth is now more likely," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to gain 0.3 percent.The Conference Board had previously said its leading index fell 0.2 percent in November, but on Thursday it revised the reading.

Many economists have worried that a debate in Washington over taxes and government spending - which was particularly raucous in December - would lead businesses and consumers to hold back on spending, hurting the economy. The Conference Board's index, however, suggested the economy was picking up speed despite ongoing uncertainty over fiscal policy.

Reuters January 2013

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U.S. Factories Hit by Sharp Decline in Orders

Factory orders in the U.S. fell off sharply in August as demand declined at the fastest rate since the start of the year – a sign that the recovery in manufacturing could be running out of steam.

The decline in orders was led by a 40 per cent drop in demand for commercial aircraft, which helped distort the volatile monthly figures. But there was also weakness across a range of industries, including industrial machinery and home appliances.

Policy makers and investors are generally optimistic that business investment and industrial activity will be supported by overseas appetite for U.S. goods despite a slowdown in domestic demand aggravated by the credit squeeze and falling U.S. house prices.

But yesterday’s sharp decline in factory orders combined with other recent indicators of manufacturing activity underline the risk that industrial momentum may not be sustained in the face of economic headwinds at home and abroad.

The commerce department said orders fell 3.3 per cent last month in the biggest setback for manufacturers since January.

Orders for durable goods expected to last at least three years fell by 4.9 per cent, while demand for products with a shorter lifespan, such as food and petrol, fell by 1.6 per cent.

There were also tentative signs of weakness in the jobs market as the Department of Labor said the number of newly filed claims for unemployment benefits rose last week by 16,000 to a total of 317,000, the largest weekly increase in four months.

Today’s closely watched report on job creation is a critical gauge of the health of the economy and will provide the Federal Reserve with an important indication of how much support consumer spending may get from a tight labour market.

Figures showed a shock fall in jobs last month and triggered a wave of stock market declines, setting the stage for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18.

The Financial Times October 2007

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