The Economist January 2005

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U.S. Manufacturing Contracts

American manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three months as factories throttled back hiring and investment amid uncertainty about the U.S. economy and budget policies.

Various reports on manufacturing around the globe suggested the world's factories are moving at slightly different speeds: Europe continues to wobble, while China's factories look to be on the mend. Manufacturing in China expanded in November, hitting its highest level in 13 months by one measure. Factories in the euro zone contracted for the ninth consecutive month, but at a slower pace.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity fell to 49.5, the lowest level in more than three years. Readings under 50 indicate activity is shrinking instead of growing.

Employment in the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in three years, while a measure of inventories—a gauge of future demand—dropped sharply to 45 from 50, suggesting firms are delaying hiring and keeping stockpiles low. Production surged, but order backlogs fell, a sign that businesses are fulfilling old orders rather than receiving new ones. New orders and exports also dropped.

The latest pullback by factories could prove temporary. The ISM's manufacturing index has averaged 50.4 over the past five months, below its 53 average in the first half of the year, yet still suggesting manufacturing growth.

Manufacturing was a driver of U.S. growth in the early part of the recovery but has gradually weakened, while other parts of the economy, such as the housing market, have picked up.

Construction spending in the U.S. rose to the highest level in three years in October amid a surge in home and apartment building, the Commerce Department said Monday.

The Wall Street Journal December 2012

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Services Sector Expands in u. K.

THE U. K.’s services sector expanded at a modest pace in January, raising hopes the country can avoid falling into a recession.

But lingering concerns over the health of the economy were exacerbated by data Thursday showing that mortgage approvals weakened, house prices slumped, consumer confidence fell and money supply shrank.

The most positive news from Thursday’s slew of data were figures from the Office for National Statistics showing services output in January increased 0.2% on the month and 1.8% on an annual basis.

The services sector accounts for three-quarters of the U.K. economy, and economists were closely watching Thursday’s data to see whether they indicate the economy returned to growth in the first quarter after shrinking 0.3% in the final three months of 2011.

Vicky Redwood, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said even if there is flat output in February and March, output in the sector would rise by 0.5% overall in the first quarter compared with the 0.1% fall reported in the previous quarter.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s official forecaster, last week said it expects the economy to avoid recession and will instead grow by 0.3% in the first three months of the year.

Hampering the economy’s revival are pressure on household budgets from high inflation and muted wage growth. Data released Wednesday showed real disposable income fell by 1.2% in 2011—the biggest annual drop since 1977.

The Wall Street Journal March 2012

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