Добавил:
ivanov666
Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз:
Предмет:
Файл:System analyses and control. Учебное пособие
.pdf
Unit 4. Decision Making
71
analysis promote its use because it can lead to increased economic prosperity and
better strategic decision making. Researchers have explored the use of decision
analysis for such purposes as achieving a society free of coercion and making
decisions in life-or-death situations. Formal decision analysis is used by individuals in such varied professions as engineering, business, psychology, social sciences, economics, education and research.
Some of the tools used in decision analysis include decision models, decision trees and influence diagrams. There are several types of decision models,
including rational, intuitive and rational-iterative. Decision models typically prescribe such steps as defining decisions, identifying desired results, considering
possible solutions, predicting the consequences of the solutions and considering
the likelihood of each solution achieving desired results.
A decision tree is a tree graph representing different decisions and their
possible consequences. Typical decision trees represent the percentage chance
that a decision will lead to a positive outcome and the percentage chance that the
same decision will lead to a negative outcome. The tree shows the possible gain
or loss associated with each possible outcome. Decision trees only have diverging paths and, because of the exponential growth potential, can grow very large
and cumbersome.
Another type of visual representation of decisions analysis is the influence
diagram. Influence diagrams are smaller and less detailed than decision trees and
are often chosen as a compact alternative to a decision tree. An influence diagram
represents possible decisions, uncertainties and potential values associated with
different decisions, and compares those with desired outcomes.
A typical decision analysis cycle contains four phases: the deterministic
phase, the probabilistic phase, the informational phase and the decision phase. In
the deterministic phase, the decision situation and desired outcomes are identified. During the probabilistic phase, the probability of different risks and outcomes is assigned to possible decisions. In the informational phase, the results of
the previous phases are used to determine whether it would be cost-effective to
gather more information and reduce uncertainty before proceeding with a decision. A decision is made in the fourth and final phase [9].
15. Are these statements about influence diagrams or decision tree?
1. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can lay out
options and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options.
System analyses and control
72
2. A compact, graphical way to look at the factors involved in making a
decision. It shows how the decisions, variables at work, and desired outcomes
relate to one another, which is useful for making it easy to see the main factors
involved and how each factor impacts the others.
3. It represents all possible paths that the decision maker can follow.
4. They show the dependencies among variables.
5. An excellent tool for helping you to choose between several courses of
action.
6. It consists of a network of nodes representing events joined by directed
links that represent the direct influence between events.
7. A general-purpose tool for helping to think about links between objec-
tives, alternatives and consequences.
8. They can provide a shared understanding of “how things work” and how
various factors influence others.
16. Match the phases of the decision analysis cycle with their
explanations.
1. The deterministic
phase.
2. The probabilistic
phase.
3. The informational
phase.
4. The decision phase.
a. Uncertainty is explicitly incorporated into the
analysis by assigning probability distributions to the important variables.
b. The decision problem is structured by defining
relevant variables, characterizing their relationships in
formal models, and assigning values to possible outcomes.
c. Here is the part of the decision-making process
where you make the decision. You have identified and
clarified what decision needs to be made, gathered all
relevant information, and developed and considered the
potential paths to take. You are perfectly prepared to
choose.
d. The economic value of information is determined
by calculating the worth of reducing uncertainty about
each of the important variables in the problem. The
value of additional information can then be compared
with the cost of obtaining it. If the gathering of additional information is profitable, the three phases are repeated again. The analysis is completed when further
analysis or information gathering is no longer profitable.
Unit 4. Decision Making
73
SPEAKING
17. Imagine you have to make a decision.
Identify the purpose of your decision by asking yourself what exactly is
the problem that needs to be solved? Visualize your decision-making process
using an influence diagrams or a decision tree.
WRITING
18. There are many more tools that help an individual weigh the pros
and cons of any given situation and make decisions the right way.
Choose one of them, give an overview of the tool, and describe its pros
and cons. Write about 250 words.
These links and the supplementary reading section may help you.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-organizationalbehavior/chapter/
decision-making-tools/
https://www.geeknack.com/2020/08/14/top-five-best-decision-makingtools-and-techniques/
https://creately.com/blog/diagrams/decision-making-techniques-tools/
SUPPLEMENTARY READING
THE VROOM-YETTON-JAGO DECISION MODEL
It’s a mouthful, but once you get the hang of the concepts embedded in
this streamlined model, you’ll have one more tool you can use to decipher which
decisions can be made independently and which need a team. Developed by Victor Vroom and Phillip Yetton, with additional collaboration from Arthur Jago,
this model dictates that you involve other people in the decision if one or more
of these elements are present: a high-quality decision is critical, you need everyone to buy into the decision once it’s made, and you have sufficient time to involve others before you make the decision.
Imagine your decision making on a spectrum from the most solitary form
(you decide alone) to the most engaging (you bring others in). The VroomYetton-Jago Normative Decision Model offers five options:
Autocratic I: Decide independently.
Autocratic II: Gather basic additional information from others to inform
your decision, and then decide independently.
System analyses and control
74
Image source: https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_91.htm
Unit 4. Decision Making
75
Consultative I: Share the details of your situation with a small number of
others in order to gather high quality opinions, and then decide independently.
Consultative II: Facilitate a group to generate ideas, share impressions and
weigh in on the decision, and then make the decision independently.
Collaborative: Facilitate a group toward a consensus decision without regard for your own opinions.
Four case studies in decision-making
The designers of this model gifted us with a handy visual tool we can use
to walk through a short series of yes/no questions and arrive at the most appropriate decision-making method for the situation.
Let’s put it to work with a few examples of how you might use it at the
office:
You’re the primary organizer for your organization’s upcoming fundraising event, and you’ve run this event before. You’ve been asked by the catering
team to make a decision on the color of the linens. Since one could argue that
neither the quality of the decision or team buy-in are critical, you can use Autocratic I and make the decision independently.
You’ve been invited to plan an upcoming retreat for your team of 12 in
order to help new colleagues integrate into the group and get everyone focused
on the same objectives. The quality of the decision and team commitment are
both important. Yet you likely don’t have enough information to make the deci-
sion, nor is the problem well-structured. This would suggest you use either the
Consultative II or Collaborative approach to make the decision.
You’d like to make a procedural change to how your program is run, and
the quality of the decision is important. You’d like others on your team to support
what you decide, but you also know they’ll trust you to make the decision your-
self. Using the visual guide, you learn that your best approach is Autocratic II.
You gather basic input from the two other people who will have to make adjustments to their workflow and then you make the decision on your own.
You have thoughts about strategic changes that could be made to your
colleague’s program. Hold on! Common sense and this decision-making model
both dictate that this is not your decision and you need to use the Collaborative
method (or instead, share this model and your specific strategic idea with your
colleague and let them decide).
System analyses and control
76
One nuance of the model is that you’ll need to really lean into collabora-
tion if you think the decision will be met with disagreement from the group. For
those who tend to avoid conflict, it’s a nerve-wracking–though important–reminder of the need for consensus building. A second caution is that other decision-making tools might be more appropriate when a large group is involved (for
that, you might look to the Constructive Controversy method instead) [10].
Unit 2. General Systems Theory (GST)
77
UNIT 5
AUTOMATIC CONTROL THEORY
“Control is a thinly veiled illusion that deceives and seduces mankind.”
Charles Paterson
LEAD IN
1. What do you know about Automatic Control Systems?
Take this quiz. You have to select the right answer to the question and
explain your choice.
1. Replacing a job done by a human with a control system is known as...
a. automation
b. robotisation
c. computerisation
d. feedbacking
2. When the output of a system is used to influence input it is known as...
a. feedback
b. processing
c. automation
d. measuring
3. A small computer found inside control systems such as air-conditioning
units...
a. embedded microprocessor
b. mainframe
c. server
d. PDA
4. Sensors take analogue readings, but computers only understand...
a. digital values
b. numbers
c. processing
d. feedback
PRONONCIATION
2. Make sure you pronounce the following words properly:
System analyses and control
78
automatic [ˌɔː.təˈmæt.ɪk]
abundant [əˈbʌn.dənt]
measure [ˈmeʒ.ər]
evaporation [ɪˌvæp.əˈreɪ.ʃən]
capture [ˈkæp.tʃər]
hydraulic [haɪˈdrɒl.ɪk]
approximately [əˈprɒk.sɪ.mət.li]
frequency [ˈfriː.kwən.si]
continuously [kənˈtɪn.ju.əs.li]
circuit [ˈsɜː.kɪt]
previous [ˈpriː.vi.əs]
value [ˈvæl.juː]
variable [ˈveəriəbl]
stimulus [ˈstɪm.jə.ləs] plural stimuli UK/ˈstɪm.jʊ.laɪ/
WORD STUDY
The following words and phrases will help you to understand the text.
3. Can you guess the meaning of each term from the context? Try to
match each term with its definition.
1. The temperature remained constant. The average speed of the winds re-
mained constant.
2. There are too many variables in the experiment to predict the result ac-
curately. One variable or factor is altered at a time while all others remain con-
stant.
3. Simple mechanical devices were placed in the test room to maintain an
accurate record of output. It is important to maintain a constant temperature inside the greenhouse.
4. Next, we need to measure the temperature of the mixture.
5. Process control is the ability to monitor and adjust a process to give a
desired output. It is used in industry to maintain quality and improve performance. You may need to adjust the image on your screen to keep it centered.
6. Diversification is a good way of reducing risk.
7. I'd like to help but I don't have the power to intervene in this dispute.
8. The cost of the project has increased dramatically since it began.
Unit 5. Automatic Control Theory
79
9. The software division expects to achieve its sales targets this year. I in-
tend to do everything within my power to make sure that we achieve these objectives.
10. The actuators are powered by wires and controlled by three circuits con-
nected to a power supply. The company makes actuators, devices that fit on to
the valves along pipelines, controlling the opening and closing of the valve.
11. Contrary to systems that could be understood by old-fashioned reduc-
tionism, these dynamic systems exhibited emergent behavior.
12. The speed of the computation affects the sampling size and speed of
updates.
13. Profit can be calculated using the simple equation P = R - C (Profit =
Revenue minus Cost).
14. There's a degree of uncertainty over the company's future.
15. Some analysts are attempting to discipline the confused setting, primar-
ily by studying what has happened in similar circumstances. No one has at-
tempted this experiment before.
16. We need a better system for monitoring what is going on.
17. Scientists are studying the cell’s response to stimuli.
18. Ultimate goal is to control a process or analyze a signal. To do this need
to be able to predict the response of a system to various inputs.
19. We should be allowed to determine our own future. The demand for a
product determines its price.
1. constant
2. variable
3. maintain
4. measure
5. adjust
6. reduce
7. intervene
8. increase
9. achieve
10. actuator
11. exhibit
12. equation
13. affect
14. uncertainty
a. To (make something) become larger in amount or size.
b. Reach or attain (a desired objective, level, or result)
by effort, skill, or courage.
c. To make something smaller or less in size, amount, or
price.
d. Part of a machine or system that moves something or
makes something work.
e. To express or show the most important facts about
something. To clearly show a particular quality, emotion, or
ability.
f. Something said or done as a reaction to something that
has been said or done; an answer or reaction.
g. Staying at the same level.
System analyses and control
80
15. attempt
16. monitor
17. stimulus
18. response
19. determine
h. To make something continue in the same way or at the
same level.
i. A mathematical statement consisting of numbers, let-
ters, and symbols that shows that one amount is equal to another.
j. A factor that can change in quality, quantity, or size,
which you have to take into account in a situation. A mathematical quantity which can represent several different
amounts.
k. To try to do something, especially something difficult.
l. To change or move something slightly to improve it
or make it more suitable for a particular purpose.
m. A situation in which something is not known, or some-
thing that is not known or certain.
n. To intentionally become involved in a difficult situa-
tion in order to improve it or prevent it from getting worse.
o. To discover the exact size or amount of something
p. To have an influence on someone or something, or to
cause a change in someone or something.
q. To carefully watch and check a situation in order to
see how it changes over a period of time observe and check the
progress or quality of (something) over a period of time; keep
under systematic review.
r. Something that causes growth, activity, or reaction.
Something that makes someone or something move or react.
s. To control or influence directly; to decide.
4. Match the following word combinations with their equivalents in
Russian.
1. operating conditions
2. electric power grid
3. input/output variables
4. hydraulic actuators
5. nonlinear differential
equations
6. partial differential equa-
tions
7. Petri nets
a. шумы измерения
b. эксплуатационные условия
c. входные/выходные переменные
d. электрическая сеть
e. гидравлический привод
f. нелинейные дифференциальные уравне-
ния
g. информация с датчиков
h. управляющие поверхности (самолета)
Соседние файлы в предмете [НЕСОРТИРОВАННОЕ]