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Unit 4. Decision Making
61
4. If you could not make a decision, which of these options would you
choose as a solution?
a. Choosing at random.
b. Having someone else make the decision for you.
c. Waiting for some sort of "sign" to tell you what to do.
d. Making a pro and cons list.
PRONONCIATION
2. Make sure you pronounce the following words properly:
decision [dɪˈsɪʒ.ən]
theory [ˈθɪə.ri]
technique [tekˈniːk]
alternative [ɒlˈtɜː.nə.tɪv]
consequence [ˈkɒn.sɪ.kwəns]
certainty [ˈsɜː.tən.ti]
occurrence [əˈkʌr.əns]
criterion [kraɪˈtɪə.ri.ən] plural criteria [-ri.ə ]
procedure [prəˈsiː.dʒər]
previously [ˈpriː.vi.əs.li]
externality [ˌekstɜːˈnæləti]
WORD STUDY
The following words and phrases will help you to understand the text.
3. Can you guess the meaning of each term from the context? Try to
match each term with its definition.
1. If your first choice is not available, we always have alternatives to offer.
2. I’m prepared to accept the consequences of my decision.
3. I'm unable to answer that question with any certainty. We cannot predict
the outcome with absolute certainty.
4. The necessity of making decisions in the face of uncertainty is an inte-
gral part of our lives.
5. The probability of winning the lottery is really very low.
6. The results are consistent with earlier research.
7. There is not necessarily a direct correspondence between salary level
and job satisfaction.
System analyses and control
62
8. The product became popular thanks to its high utility in many different
situations.
9. What criteria do we use to decide whether one book is better than an-
other?
10. The same method can be applied to other situations.
11. The key attribute, the only one that really matters, is distinctiveness.
12. When facing a number of challenges, it is often useful to rank their im-
portance so appropriate attention can be provided.
13. Some jobs are quite likely to have a negative spillover into family life.
1. alternative
2. consequence
3. certainty
4. uncertainty
5. probability
6. consistent
7. correspondence
8. utility
9. criterion (plural cri-
teria)
10. apply
11. attribute
12. rank
13. spillover
a. To use something in a particular situation.
b. A quality or feature regarded as a characteristic
or inherent part.
c. A choice limited to one of two or more possibil-
ities, as of things, propositions, or courses of action, the
selection of which precludes any other possibility.
d. Ability to satisfy a particular need; usefulness.
e. A result of a course of action (or of a decision)
taken by the decision maker.
f. How likely something is, sometimes calculated
in a mathematical way.
g. The fact that something is sure to happen.
h. A situation or feeling that starts in one place but
then begins to happen or have an effect somewhere else.
i. To make a list of things in order, comparing their
importance, level of success, quality, etc.
j. A situation which you are not sure about because
you do not know what will happen.
k. A relationship or connection between two or
more ideas or facts.
l. A standard by which you judge, decide about, or
deal with something.
m. In agreement with other facts or with typical or
previous behaviour, or having the same principles as
something else.
4. Match the following word combinations with their equivalents in
Russian.
Unit 4. Decision Making
63
1. decision maker
2. decision theory
3. course of action
4. mutually exclusive
5. decision under risk
6. probability distribution
7. decision under uncer-
tainty
8. utility function
9. max-min rule
10. subjective probabilities
a. линия поведения, план действий
b. взаимоисключающие
c. теория принятия решений
d. принятие решений в условиях риска
e. правило минимакса
f. принятие решений в условиях неопреде-лен-
ности
g. распределение вероятностей
h. функция полезности
i. субъективная вероятность
j. лицо принимающее решение
5. Match the following words with their synonyms.
1. be consistent
2. alternative
3. consequence
4. select
5. spillovers
6. probability
7. utility
8. attain
9. costs
10. uncertainty
11. benefit
a. match
b. choose
c. unpredictability
d. likelihood
e. usefulness
f. profit
g. outcome
h. externalities
i. expenses
j. accomplish
k. option
WORD BUILDING
Negative prefixes
Negative statements are the opposite of affirmative statements. In English, one way to make negative statements is by adding negative prefixes to
nouns, adjectives, and verbs. Here are some English negative prefixes: a–, dis–,
il–, im–, in-, ir–, non–, un–.
For example, the prefix un- can be attached to the adjective happy to create the negative adjective unhappy.
De- is almost always used before a verb, or a word formed from that verb.
It means to reverse the verb’s action, as in dehydrate, deregulate, or detoxify. (It
can have other meanings besides making a verb negative. For example, it means
'down' in decline, decrease, and depression). Ex.: deactivate, decode, decompose.
System analyses and control
64
Dis- can be used with verbs, nouns, adjectives or adverbs. It also has other
meanings besides making words negative. Ex.: disagree, disbelief, dishonorable,
disinfection, displeasure.
In-, non-, and un- are usually used for nouns, adjectives, or the adverbs
formed from them (though un- is also used for verbs.) They all mean not _____.
(In- is the negative prefix in Latin. non- means 'not' in Latin, and many words
using it as a prefix came into English via French. Un- comes from Old English).
In- often changes to 'il-' before l; 'im-' before b, m, or p; and 'ir-' before r. These
changes make it easier to pronounce. Ex.: illegal, inaccurate, inconsistent, incredible, inevitable, irrational, etc.
Mis- is from Old English, or in some words from French. It's used with
verbs (and adjectives and adverbs made from them), as well as nouns. It means
bad, wrong, or wrongly. Ex.: misdiagnose, misinform, misunderstand.
Non- usually means not, but also may mean lack of something. Ex.: nonconformist, nonexistence, nonsense, etc.
Un- is the most common negative prefix in English. If in doubt, it's the
best one to try. Un- is the negative prefix even for many words from Latin roots.
Ex.: unable, unattainable, unavailable, unaware, etc.
Important: sometimes an adjective uses one prefix and related nouns or
verbs use different ones. For example:
unable, inability, (to) disable;
unbalanced, imbalance, (to) unbalance;
unstable, instability, (to) destabilize.
Usually, however, the same prefix serves both adjective and noun. Examples: uncertain, uncertainty; unwilling, unwillingness; unfriendly, unfriendliness,
inadequate, inadequacy, disloyal, disloyalty, etc [18].
6. Add the correct negative prefixes.
1. Something that is ___adequate is not good enough.
2. A person who can't read and write is ___literate.
3. If something is ___edible, it means it cannot be eaten.
4. Something that is ___reversible cannot be changed back.
5. If somebody is ___reliable, you cannot trust or depend on them.
6. If something is ___legitimate, it means it is not allowed or accepted.
7. A person who is ___honest cheats others.
Unit 4. Decision Making
65
8. If you get something ___solicited, you didn't ask for it and you don't
want it.
9. Something that is ___measurable is too big to be measured.
10. If something is ___perfect, it is not completely correct.
11. If your love is ___requited, it means that the person you're in love with
doesn't love you.
12. If you are ___loyal, you betray your friends or your country.
7. Complete the chart.
verb
noun
adjective
related
analytical
competition
action
preference
decide
assess
GRAMMAR FOCUS
Before reading the text, revise the grammar material (§4. NON-FINITE
VERBS, INFINITIVE, p.140) and do the exercises.
8. Translate the sentences into Russian paying attention to the
functions of the Infinitive.
1. To understand the system life cycle and its acquisition phases, it is im-
portant to realize how they relate to the systems and software engineering processes.
2. To optimize total system performance and minimize Total Cost of Own-
ership, acquisition managers must employ a total system approach.
3. For any life cycle methodology to be effective, it must be customized to
your specific program goals.
4. A collection of components that work together to realize some objec-
tives forms a system.
5. To make a decision, you must first identify the problem you need to
solve or the question you need to answer.
6. Once you've evaluated the alternatives, the next step is to make your
decision!
System analyses and control
66
7. Effective executives know when a decision has to be based on principle
and when it should be made pragmatically, on the merits of the case.
9. Choose the correct infinitive.
1. As much information about the present system needs to be gathered/ to
gather/ gather as possible.
2. The systems analyst needs to collect/ to be collected examples of the
documents used to get/get an understanding of the type and quantity of data that
flows through the business or organisation.
3. Now the problems with present system are understood, the system ana-
lyst can begin/to begin to plan how the new system will fix those problems.
4. Any new system that is designed must meet/to meet these requirements.
5. There are usually two types of output from a system that need to be
designed/ to design: on-screen reports (information displayed on the monitor),
printed reports (hard-copy to be mailed, filed, etc.).
6. There are two types of documentation that should be produced/ to be
produced/ to produce.
7. The outputs from the old and new systems can be compared/ compare
to check that the new system is running correctly.
8. These fundamental questions are often difficult to answer/answer.
9. An evolutionary methodology can be employed/employ on all types of
acquisitions.
10. A graphical representation of alternatives and possible solutions, as well
as challenges and uncertainties, can be created/to be created on a decision tree
or influence diagram.
11. Complex, strategic decisions may require/to require weeks or months
to fully assess all alternatives and potential outcomes.
12. If you need to achieve/to be achieved a specific goal from your decision,
make it measurable and timely so you know for certain that you met the goal at
the end of the process.
13. There is usually more than one option to consider when trying to
meet/meet a goal.
14. You have identified and clarified what decision needs to be made/to
make, gathered all relevant information, and developed and considered the potential paths to take. You are perfectly prepared to choose/choose.
Unit 4. Decision Making
67
15. Depending on the decision, you might want/to want to weigh evidence
using a decision tree.
16. People often say that they find it hard to make/make decisions.
17. Remember that ‘deciding not decide/ to decide’ is also a decision.
SPECIALIST READING
TEXT A
DECISION THEORY
Decision theory is a body of knowledge and related analytical techniques
of different degrees of formality designed to help a decision maker choose among
a set of alternatives in light of their possible consequences.
Alternative is one of the mutually exclusive courses of action attaining
the objectives. Alternatives differ in their nature or character, not only in quantitative details. By mutually exclusive we mean that the alternatives are competitive in the sense that if A is selected, B cannot be chosen. A course of action that
combines features selected from both A and B would be a new alternative.
A consequence is a result of a course of action (or of a decision) taken by
the decision maker. In analysis, the consequences of a course of action are determined (predicted) by the use of models. The consequences that one would like
to have, particularly those that contribute positively to the attainment of objectives, are referred to as benefits; the consequences that one would like to avoid
or minimize are costs. The consequences that do not bear very much on the main
objectives and are not evaluated in the analysis but that may affect the objectives
of other groups of people are referred to as spillovers or externalities.
Decision theory can apply to conditions of certainty, risk, or uncertainty.
Decision under certainty means that each alternative leads to one and only
one consequence, and a choice among alternatives is equivalent to a choice
among consequences.
In decision under risk each alternative will have one of several possible
consequences, and the probability of occurrence for each consequence is known.
Therefore, each alternative is associated with a probability distribution,
and a choice among probability distributions. When the probability distributions
are unknown, one speaks about decision under uncertainty.
System analyses and control
68
Decision theory recognizes that the ranking produced by using a criterion
has to be consistent with the decision maker's objectives and preferences. The
theory offers a rich collection of techniques and procedures to reveal preferences
and to introduce them into models of decision. It is not concerned with defining
objectives, designing the alternatives or assessing the consequences; it usually
considers them as given from outside, or previously determined. Given a set of
alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets,
decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice.
In a decision situation under certainty the decision maker's preferences
are simulated by a single-attribute or multi-attribute value function that introduces ordering on the set of consequences and thus also ranks the alternatives.
Decision theory for risk conditions is based on the concept of utility. The
decision maker's preferences for the mutually exclusive consequences of an alternative are described by a utility function that permits calculation of the expected utility for each alternative. The alternative with the highest expected utility is considered the most preferable.
For the case of uncertainty, decision theory offers two main approaches.
The first exploits criteria of choice developed in a broader context by game theory, as for example the max-min rule, where we choose the alternative such that
the worst possible consequence of the chosen alternative is better than (or equal
to) the best possible consequence of any other alternative. The second approach
is to reduce the uncertainty case to the case of risk by using subjective probabilities, based on expert assessments or on analysis of previous decisions made in
similar circumstances [8].
VOCABULARY IN USE
10. Refer back to the text and match the words to make word
combinations.
1. possible
2. attain
3. a course
4. decision
5. a choice
6. the probability
7. probability
a. maker
b. of choice
c. consequences
d. distribution
e. of action
f. the objectives
g. utility
Unit 4. Decision Making
69
8. previously
9. expected
10. criteria
11. game
h. among alternatives
i. theory
j. of occurrence
k. determined
11. Complete the text with words given below.
decisions, outcomes, decision making, utility theory, complex, framework,
theory, the decision maker, the alternative, guarantee, preferences,
decision, knowledge, problems
Decision ____ (1) is a way of formalizing common sense. The decision
maker analyzes the possible ____ (2) resulting from his available alternatives in
two dimensions: value (by means of ____ (3)) and probability of occurrence. He
then chooses ____ (4) that he expects to have the highest value. He cannot ____
(5) that the outcome will be as good as he might hope for, but he has made the
best ____ (6) he can, based on his preferences and available ____ (7).
Decision theory gives no magical formulas for correct ____ (8). In fact, it
forces _____ (9) to rely more strongly than ever on his own ____ (10) and judgments. But it does give him a logical ____ (11) in which to work, a framework
that is adaptable in principle to all decision ____ (12), from the simplest to the
most ____ (13). As modern society continues to grow in size and complexity,
such a framework for ____ (14) will become more and more necessary.
COMPREHENSION CHECK
12. Answer the questions.
1. What is Decision theory designed for?
2. What does the phrase ‘mutually exclusive’ mean regarding alternatives?
3. What is the means to determine the consequences of a course of action?
4. What is the difference between costs and benefits?
5. What are spillovers or externalities?
6. What does the ranking produced by using a criterion have to match?
7. What does a utility function describe?
8. Which alternative is considered to be the most preferable?
9. Which approaches does decision theory offer for the case of uncer-
tainty?
System analyses and control
70
13. Decide whether the following statements are true or false (T/F) by
referring to the information in the text. Then make the necessary changes
so that the false statements become true.
1. Alternative is one of the mutually exclusive outcomes of the courses of
action.
2. Alternative is a choice between two or more things only one of which
may be chosen.
3. The consequences that one would like to avoid or minimize are benefits.
4. Decision theory can only apply to conditions of certainty.
5. Decision under certainty means that each alternative leads to many pos-
sible outcomes.
6. In decision under risk the probability of occurrence for each conse-
quence is known.
7. When the probability distributions are known, one speaks about deci-
sion under uncertainty.
8. Decision theory is concerned with defining objectives, designing the al-
ternatives or assessing the consequences.
9. The utility function permits estimation of the expected utility for each
alternative.
SPECIALIST READING
TEXT B
DECISION ANALYSIS
14. Read the text, make up a plan of the main content and write out
key words for every point of your plan.
points
key words
Decision analysis (DA) is the art and science of formal decision making.
DA uses specific methods and tools to identify and assess factors, risks and possible outcomes to reach optimal decisions.
The phrase “decision analysis” was introduced into popular use by Stanford University professor Ronald A. Howard in 1964. Proponents of decision
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