- •Preface
- •Contents
- •Geography
- •Demographics
- •Short-Lived Independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan Followed by Soviet Domination
- •End of the Soviet Era
- •The Rise of Nationalism
- •Declarations of Independence
- •Introduction
- •Khojaly Massacre
- •Post War Military Actions
- •Weapons Purchases
- •Conclusion
- •Armenia
- •Azerbaijan
- •Nagorno-Karabakh
- •Conclusion
- •Introduction
- •Armenia
- •Azerbaijan
- •Post-petroleum Azerbaijan
- •Conclusion
- •Diplomatic Maneuvers
- •The Story of Section 907
- •The Peace Process
- •Conclusion
- •6 Final Thoughts
- •Index
86 J. J. COYLE
important role in social, political, cultural and international activities for many years,” the president said. “In general, her multifaceted activities have been successful. I have taken into account exactly these factors when making the decision to appoint her to the post of the first vice president of Azerbaijan.”68
In the 2018 presidential election, the opposition coalition National Council of Democratic forces announced they would boycott the election,69 most likely because they did not want their electoral weakness exposed to the public. Despite President Aliyev’s occasional amnesties, international human rights groups pressed the government for more meaningful, consistent, and substantive political reforms.
Even though there were seven other candidates in the race, Human Rights Watch complained that the voters had not been offered a viable choice.70 The election commission certified the turnout at 75%, with Aliyev receiving 86.09% of the vote. The president was reelected in a landslide.71
Nagorno-Karabakh
Little is known in the West about political developments inside NagornoKarabakh since it is not recognized as an independent state, is totally dependent on Armenia for its existence, and is not a party to peace negotiations. In 1992, the “parliament” gave Robert Kocharyan, as leader of the State Committee for Defense, plenipotentiary powers. Kocharyan ruled with the support of the ANM. He soon sidelined his main opposition, the Dashnaks. The “parliament” then elected Kocharyan de facto president of Nagorno-Karabakh on 22 December 1994. This was later confirmed in
68“Aliyev Appoints Wife as First-Vice President of Azerbaijan,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 21 February 2017. Web. Retrieved 31 July 2019. https://www. rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-aliyev-names-wife-aliyeva-vice-president/28322210.html.
69“Azerbaijani Opposition Coalition to Boycott Early Presidential Election,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 6 February 2018. Web. Retrieved 30 July 2019. https://www. rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-opposition-boycott-early-presidential-election/29021979.html.
70“Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev Set to Win Fourth Term As Polls Close,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 11 April 2018. Web. Retrieved 31 July 2019. https://www.rferl. org/a/azerbaijan-aliyev-expected-win-reelection-april-11-vote/29158177.html.
71Bagirova, Naila. “Azerbaijan’s Aliyev Wins Fourth Term as President,” Reuters, 11 April 2018. Web. Retrieved 31 July 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerba ijan-election/azerbaijans-aliyev-wins-fourth-term-as-president-idUSKBN1HH3CJ.
3 THE POLITICS OF FROZEN CONFLICT 87
November 1996 by a popular vote of those residents who remained in Karabakh.
He did not remain long in the position. Seeking to broaden his political base, Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan reached into Karabakh in March 1997 and appointed Kocharyan prime minister of Armenia. In Karabakh, the people felt abandoned. Kocharyan’s post was filled in September with the election of Arkady Ghukasian who received 85% of the vote. Condemnation of an illegal election was expected from Azerbaijan; more surprising was Russia’s condemnation.
Wartime commander Samvel Babayan had become rather wealthy. He controlled companies that had become leading importers of gasoline and tobacco products in Armenia and Babayan had used Karabakh Army military trucks to transport the cargo. In addition, Babayan meddled in the government affairs in Karabakh, forcing then-Prime Minister Leonard Petrossian to resign in June 1998. He was succeeded by a Babayan ally, Zhirayr Pogossian, who was forced out of office after bugging devices were found in Ghukasian’s office.
Babayan also involved himself in Armenian politics, funding the parliamentary campaigns of two political parties in May 1999. Ghukasian and his allies were displeased, and in June 1999, Ghukasian removed him from his position of “defense minister” and later commander of the army.72
In March 2000, Babayan was involved in the attempted assassination of Ghukasian who was seriously wounded in the attack. The authorities arrested Babayan in the aftermath and sentenced to 14 years in prison. Babayan was released from prison in September 2004 for health reasons, after which he entered politics in Karabakh and later Armenia.
In June 2000, Karabakh held unrecognized parliamentary elections. According to the Central Election Commission, there was a 60% turnout in the election. The Artsakh Union movement (supporters of Ghukasian) won 13 seats, ARF (Dashnaks) 9, independents 10, and the Armenicam Party 1. No serious problems were reported. It was the first election in which the Dashnaks had participated, as they had been outlawed in
72 “The Rise and Fall of Samvel Babayan,” Armenian News Network, 6 October 2004. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. http://groong.usc.edu/ro/ro-20041006.html.
88 J. J. COYLE
the 1995 elections. With Babayan temporarily out of the picture, the Dashnaks became the leading opposition party.73
Ghukasian was reelected on 12 August 2002 with 89% of the vote. His closest competitor, Artur Tovmasian, received just 8%. Voter turnout was 75%.74 According to the Nagorno-Karabakh “constitution,” Ghukasian could only serve two terms so this would be his last election.
In August 2004, the opposition Movement-88 candidate Eduard Aghabekian scored a major success by winning the Stepanakert mayoralty. They were unable to capitalize on the momentum, however. In the fourth “parliamentary” elections held in June 2005, the main opposition bloc uniting the Karabakh branch of the ARF and the Movement-88 party won only three seats. Political parties loyal to “president” Ghukasian won a surprise landslide victory, winning nearly two-thirds of the vote. Preliminary results released by Karabakh’s Central Election Commission (CEC) on Monday showed Ghukasian’s Democratic Party of Artsakh winning 12 out of the 33 seats in the unrecognized republic’s legislature. The Free Fatherland party, an obscure pro-establishment group, finished second with 10 seats. Eight other seats were won by individual candidates not affiliated with any party. Most of them were also thought to be loyal to Ghukasian. The CEC put the voter turnout at 78%.75
Ghukasian chose as his successor former National Security Service chief Bako Sahakyan who was elected in 2007 with 85% of the vote. Supposedly Bako also had the support of both the Russian and Armenian governments. He was reelected in 2012 on a platform of continuity in pursuing independence and development.76 He extended his rule in 2017 when Karabakh adopted a new “constitution.” “Parliament” extended his term of office for a three-year transition period as the enclave moves to a strong
73“Nagorno Karabakh Parliamentary Election, 18 June 2000,” BHHRG, date unknown. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. http://www.bhhrgarchive.org/Countries/Nag orno%20Karabakh/Nagorno%20Karabakh%20parliamentary%20election%202000.pdf.
74“Nagorno Karabakh,” Freedom House, 2007. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2007/nagorno-karabakh.
75“Ruling Party Wins Karabakh Vote Amid Opposition Outcry.” Azatutyun, 20 June 2005. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/1577392.html.
76Hale, Henry E. Patronal Politics (Cambridge University Press, 2015), 302–304.
3 THE POLITICS OF FROZEN CONFLICT 89
presidential system. He has declared he will not run for reelection in 2020.77
Voters in Karabakh went to the polls on 23 May 2010 to elect their fifth “parliament” since the early 1990s. Results published by the Karabakh “Central Election Commission” (CEC) on May 24 showed Karabakh “Prime Minister” Ara Harutiunian’s Free Fatherland party leading the vote with some 47%. “Parliament speaker” Ashot Ghulian’s Democratic Party of Artsakh and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) garnered some 32 and 24% of the vote, respectively. The Communist Party reportedly failed to clear the 6% hurdle, which is required under Karabakh’s election laws to enter the legislature. More than 70% of some 95,000 eligible voters turned out to vote in the elections, according to the CEC. Four political parties with a total of 82 candidates were vying for 17 parliamentary seats. The remaining seats in the 33-seat body were contested by 44 candidates in single-mandate constituencies.78
The sixth “parliamentary” election was held on 3 May 2015. Seven parties participated in the vote, and five passed the threshold to gain seats. Results were similar to the 2010 elections, but not identical. Prime Minister Arayik Harutyunyan’s Free Motherland party maintained its dominant position in the legislature, winning 15 seats. Fellow coalition partners ARF and the Democratic Party of Artsakh gained seven and six seats, respectively. The big difference from the previous election was that two opposition parties gained representation—Movement 88 gained three seats, while National Revival captured one. An independent candidate won the remaining seat.79
Elections in Nagorno-Karabakh have never been recognized internationally. Azerbaijan and the European Court of Human Rights believe
77“Artsakh President Bako Sahakyan Not to Seek Reelection in 2020,” Armenian Weekly, 12 June 2018. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. https://armenianweekly.com/ 2018/06/12/artsakh-president-bako-sahakyan-not-to-seek-reelection-in-2020/.
78“Armenia Praises Karabakh Parliamentary Elections,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 25 May 2010. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. https://www.rferl.org/a/Arm enia_Praises_Karabakh_Parliamentary_Elections/2052293.html.
79“Freedom in the World 2016-Nagorno Karabakh,” Freedom House, 18 August 2016. Web. Retrieved 2 August 2019. https://www.refworld.org/docid/57bc4f2fe.html.