vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
Data Monitor – Latam
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 88: Brazil Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 89: Argentina Activity Growth |
|
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
15 |
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15 |
25 |
10 |
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10 |
20 |
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15 |
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5 |
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5 |
10 |
0 |
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0 |
5 |
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0 |
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-5 |
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-5 |
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-5 |
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-10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-10 |
-10 |
|||||
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-15 |
||||||
-15 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-15 |
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-20 |
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-20 |
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-20 |
-25 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
25 |
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20 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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-5 |
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-10 |
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-15 |
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-20 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Exhibit 90: Brazil Inflation |
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Exhibit 91: Argentina Inflation |
Percent change, yoy |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
|
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Percent change, yoy |
||
12 |
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12 |
50 |
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50 |
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Central Bank Target Range |
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45 |
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45 |
||
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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|||
10 |
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10 |
40 |
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|
40 |
||
Core CPI Inflation |
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|||||
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BBG Consensus Median |
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35 |
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35 |
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8 |
GS Forecast - Headline |
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8 |
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30 |
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30 |
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6 |
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6 |
25 |
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25 |
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20 |
2017 CB Target Range |
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20 |
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4 |
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4 |
2018 CB Target |
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15 |
National CPI (Headline) |
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15 |
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GS Forecast: Buenos Aires CPI (Headline) |
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10 |
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10 |
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2 |
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2 |
National CPI (Core) |
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Buenos Aires CPI (Headline) |
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|||
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5 |
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5 |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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0 |
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0 |
0 |
GS Forecast: National CPI (Headline) |
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0 |
||
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12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Exhibit 92: Brazil Financial Conditions
Index |
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Index |
102 |
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102 |
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tighter |
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Nominal FCI |
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101 |
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101 |
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100 |
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100 |
99 |
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99 |
98 |
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98 |
97 |
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97 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
11 December 2018 |
38 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 93: Chile Activity Growth |
Exhibit 94: Colombia Activity Growth |
Percent change, annualized |
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Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
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Percent change, annualized |
|||||||||||
15 |
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15 |
15 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
15 |
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10 |
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10 |
13 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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13 |
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10 |
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10 |
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5 |
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5 |
8 |
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8 |
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5 |
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5 |
0 |
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0 |
3 |
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3 |
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-5 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
|
-5 |
0 |
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0 |
||||
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-3 |
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-3 |
|
-10 |
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-10 |
-5 |
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-5 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
|
|
Exhibit 95: Chile Inflation |
|
Exhibit 96: Colombia Inflation |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
|||
7 |
|
|
|
|
Central Bank Target Range |
7 |
9 |
|
Central Bank Target Range |
|
|
9 |
||
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||||
6 |
|
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|
Headline CPI Inflation |
6 |
8 |
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
|
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|
8 |
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|
Core CPI Inflation |
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|
Core CPI Inflation |
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|||
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7 |
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7 |
|||
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BBC Consensus Median |
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||||
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BBC Consensus Median |
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|||||
5 |
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GS Forecast - Headline |
5 |
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|||
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6 |
|
GS Forecast - Headline |
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6 |
|||||
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4 |
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4 |
5 |
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5 |
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3 |
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3 |
4 |
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4 |
2 |
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2 |
3 |
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3 |
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2 |
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2 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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||
0 |
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0 |
0 |
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0 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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|
Exhibit 97: Chile Financial Conditions |
|
Exhibit 98: Colombia Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
101 |
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101 |
101 |
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101 |
100 |
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tighter |
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|
Nominal FCI |
|
100 |
100 |
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|
Nominal FCI |
100 |
||
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tighter |
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99 |
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99 |
99 |
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99 |
98 |
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98 |
98 |
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98 |
97 |
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97 |
97 |
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97 |
96 |
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96 |
96 |
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96 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
39 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 99: Mexico Activity Growth |
Exhibit 100: Peru Activity Growth |
Percent change, annualized |
|
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|
|
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, annualized |
||||||||||||
15 |
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15 |
20 |
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20 |
10 |
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10 |
15 |
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15 |
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5 |
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5 |
10 |
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10 |
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0 |
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0 |
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5 |
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5 |
-5 |
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-5 |
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-10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
-10 |
0 |
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0 |
||||
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||
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|
Real GDP (qoq) |
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-5 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
|
-5 |
||||
-15 |
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-15 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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|||
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-20 |
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-20 |
-10 |
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|
-10 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
|
|
Exhibit 101: Mexico Inflation |
|
Exhibit 102: Peru Inflation |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
||
9 |
|
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9 |
6 |
|
Central Bank Target Range |
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6 |
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|
Central Bank Target Range |
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|||
8 |
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8 |
|
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
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|||
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
|
|
5 |
|
Core CPI Inflation |
|
|
5 |
||||
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||||||
7 |
|
Core CPI Inflation |
|
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|
7 |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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|
GS Forecast - Headline |
|
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||||
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BBC Consensus Median |
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|||
6 |
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6 |
4 |
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4 |
||
|
GS Forecast - Headline |
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|||||
5 |
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5 |
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3 |
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3 |
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4 |
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4 |
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3 |
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3 |
2 |
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2 |
2 |
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2 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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||
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
|
|
Exhibit 103: Mexico Financial Conditions |
|
Exhibit 104: Peru Financial Conditions |
Index |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
101 |
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
||||
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97 |
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
40 |