vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Data Monitor – CEEMEA
Exhibit 65: Russia Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 66: Czech Republic Activity Growth |
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Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
15 |
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15 |
15 |
10 |
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10 |
10 |
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5 |
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5 |
5 |
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0 |
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0 |
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0 |
-5 |
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-5 |
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-10 |
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-10 |
-5 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-10 |
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-15 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-15 |
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-20 |
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-20 |
-15 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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-5 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-10 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-15 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Exhibit 67: Russia Inflation |
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Exhibit 68: Czech Republic Inflation |
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
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Inflation Target |
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18 |
8 |
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Inflation Target |
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8 |
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Headline CPI |
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16 |
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Headline CPI |
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Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 |
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14 |
6 |
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Inflation Expectations of Forecasters |
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6 |
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year ahead |
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12 |
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Non-Financial Corps Inflation Expectations |
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10 |
4 |
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4 |
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8 |
2 |
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2 |
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6 |
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4 |
0 |
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0 |
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2 |
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0 |
-2 |
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-2 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
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Exhibit 69: Russia Financial Conditions |
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Exhibit 70: Czech Republic Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
106 |
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106 |
102 |
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102 |
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Nominal FCI |
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Nominal FCI |
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tighter |
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Real FCI |
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102 |
Real FCI |
102 |
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101 |
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101 |
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98 |
tighter |
98 |
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100 |
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100 |
94 |
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94 |
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90 |
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90 |
99 |
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99 |
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86 |
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86 |
98 |
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98 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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11 December 2018 |
34 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 71: Hungary Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 72: Poland Activity Growth |
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Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
10 |
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10 |
10 |
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10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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5 |
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5 |
8 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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8 |
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6 |
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6 |
0 |
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0 |
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4 |
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4 |
-5 |
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-5 |
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2 |
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2 |
-10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
-10 |
0 |
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0 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-15 |
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-15 |
-2 |
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-2 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
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Exhibit 73: Hungary Inflation |
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Exhibit 74: Poland Inflation |
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Percent change, yoy |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
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Percent change, yoy |
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Inflation Target |
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12 |
8 |
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Inflation Target |
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8 |
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Headline CPI |
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10 |
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Headline CPI |
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Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 year ahead |
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6 |
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6 |
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Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 year ahead |
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Households Inflation Expectations (mid-point) |
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8 |
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6 |
4 |
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4 |
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4 |
2 |
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2 |
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2 |
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0 |
0 |
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0 |
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-2 |
-2 |
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-2 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
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Exhibit 75: Hungary Financial Conditions |
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Exhibit 76: Poland Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
104 |
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104 |
103 |
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Nominal FCI |
103 |
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Nominal FCI |
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102 |
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tighter |
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102 |
102 |
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Real FCI |
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102 |
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Real FCI |
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tighter |
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100 |
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100 |
101 |
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101 |
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98 |
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98 |
100 |
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100 |
96 |
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96 |
99 |
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99 |
94 |
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94 |
98 |
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98 |
92 |
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92 |
97 |
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97 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
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08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
35 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 77: Israel Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 78: Romania Activity Growth |
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Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
10 |
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10 |
15 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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8 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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8 |
10 |
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6 |
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6 |
5 |
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0 |
4 |
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4 |
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-5 |
2 |
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2 |
-10 |
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0 |
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0 |
-15 |
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-2 |
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-2 |
-20 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
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15 |
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10 |
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5 |
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0 |
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-5 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-10 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-15 |
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-20 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 79: Israel Inflation |
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Exhibit 80: Romania Inflation |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
6 |
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6 |
12 |
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12 |
5 |
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5 |
10 |
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10 |
4 |
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4 |
8 |
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8 |
3 |
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3 |
6 |
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6 |
2 |
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2 |
4 |
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4 |
1 |
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1 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
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Inflation Target |
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0 |
0 |
|
Inflation Target |
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|
0 |
||
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||||
|
|
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Headline CPI |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|||
-1 |
|
|
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|
|
|
-1 |
-2 |
|
Headline CPI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-2 |
|||
|
|
Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 year ahead |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|||||||||||
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|
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|
|
|
|
||||||
-2 |
|
|
Inflation Exp. derived from financial markets, 1 year ahead |
|
-2 |
-4 |
|
Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 year ahead |
|
|
-4 |
|||||||||||
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||||
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics |
Exhibit 81: Israel Financial Conditions
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
||
102 |
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
Real FCI |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
101 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
11 December 2018 |
36 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 82: Turkey Activity Growth |
|
Exhibit 83: South Africa Activity Growth |
|
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
Percent Change, annualized |
25 |
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25 |
8 |
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8 |
20 |
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20 |
6 |
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6 |
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15 |
|
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15 |
4 |
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4 |
10 |
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10 |
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||
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5 |
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5 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
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0 |
0 |
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0 |
-5 |
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-5 |
-2 |
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-2 |
-10 |
|
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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|
-10 |
|
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|
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-15 |
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
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|
|
-15 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
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|
|
-4 |
||
|
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||||||
-20 |
|
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|
-20 |
-6 |
|
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|
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|
-6 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Exhibit 84: Turkey Inflation
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
28 |
|||
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inflation Target |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
24 |
|
Inflation Target (interpolated) |
|
|
|
|
|
24 |
|||
|
|
Headline CPI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
Survey of inflation expectations (appropriate mean) |
|
|
20 |
||||||
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
12 |
|
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12 |
8 |
|
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8 |
4 |
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4 |
0 |
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|
|
|
|
0 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 85: South Africa Inflation
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
|||
12 |
|
|
|
Inflation Target |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
Headline CPI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
Inflation Expectations of Forecasters, 1 year ahead |
10 |
|||||
|
|
|
Inflation Expectation: Business |
|
|
|||||
|
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|
|
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|
||||
|
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|
|
Inflation Expectation: Trade Unions |
|
|
|
|||
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
6 |
4 |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics
Exhibit 86: Turkey Financial Conditions |
Exhibit 87: South Africa Financial Conditions |
Index |
|
Index |
Index |
|
Index |
|
104 |
|
104 |
104 |
|
104 |
|
102 |
Nominal FCI |
102 |
|
Nominal FCI |
|
|
Real FCI |
102 |
Real FCI |
102 |
|||
|
|
|||||
100 |
tighter |
100 |
100 |
|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
98 |
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
96 |
|
96 |
98 |
|
98 |
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
||
94 |
|
94 |
96 |
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
92 |
|
92 |
94 |
|
94 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
11 December 2018 |
37 |