vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
Data Monitor – EM Asia
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 35: China Activity Growth
Percent change, annualized |
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Percent change, annualized |
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14 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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14 |
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12 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom), 3mma |
12 |
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Physical industrial output (yoy), 3mma |
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10 |
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10 |
8 |
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8 |
6 |
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6 |
4 |
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4 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
0 |
Exhibit 36: India Activity Growth
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
16 |
Real Gross Value Added (qoq) |
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16 |
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14 |
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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14 |
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12 |
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12 |
10 |
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10 |
8 |
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8 |
6 |
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6 |
4 |
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4 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
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0 |
-2 11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
-2 |
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Haver Analytics, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 37: China Inflation |
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Exhibit 38: India Inflation |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
7 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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7 |
14 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
14 |
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6 |
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Central Bank Inflation Target* |
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6 |
12 |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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12 |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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5 |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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5 |
10 |
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10 |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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4 |
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4 |
8 |
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8 |
3 |
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3 |
6 |
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6 |
2 |
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2 |
4 |
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4 |
1 |
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1 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
0 |
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*In practice, the ‘target’ works more like an ‘upper bound’ |
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*Note: Official inflation target for the next five years is 4%+/- 2% |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg, PBOC |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, RBI |
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Exhibit 39: China Financial Conditions |
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Exhibit 40: India Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
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105 |
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105 |
106 |
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106 |
103 |
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tighter |
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103 |
104 |
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104 |
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101 |
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101 |
102 |
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102 |
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tighter |
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100 |
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100 |
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99 |
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99 |
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98 |
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98 |
97 |
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97 |
96 |
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96 |
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Nominal FCI |
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95 |
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FCI including credit quantity |
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95 |
94 |
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Real FCI |
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94 |
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93 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
93 |
92 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
92 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
For more China indicators see China: GS Economic Indicators Update: Final update on
October data
11 December 2018 |
29 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 41: Korea Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 42: Taiwan Activity Growth |
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Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
15 |
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15 |
30 |
10 |
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10 |
20 |
5 |
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5 |
10 |
0 |
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0 |
0 |
-5 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-5 |
-10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-10 |
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-10 |
-20 |
-15 08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -15 |
-30 |
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30 |
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20 |
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10 |
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0 |
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-10 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-20 |
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08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -30 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC
Exhibit 43: Korea Inflation |
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Exhibit 44: Taiwan Inflation |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
5 |
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Central Bank Target Range |
5 |
3 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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3 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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4 |
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4 |
2 |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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2 |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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3 |
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3 |
1 |
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1 |
2 |
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2 |
0 |
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0 |
1 |
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1 |
-1 |
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-1 |
0 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
0 |
-2 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
-2 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, BOK |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg |
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Exhibit 45: Korea Financial Conditions |
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Exhibit 46: Taiwan Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
104 |
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104 |
102 |
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102 |
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Nominal FCI |
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tighter |
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103 |
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103 |
101 |
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101 |
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Real FCI |
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102 |
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102 |
100 |
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tighter |
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100 |
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101 |
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101 |
99 |
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99 |
100 |
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100 |
98 |
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98 |
99 |
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99 |
97 |
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Nominal FCI |
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97 |
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98 09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
98 |
96 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
96 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
30 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 47: Malaysia Activity Growth |
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Exhibit 48: Thailand Activity Growth |
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Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
15 |
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15 |
40 |
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40 |
10 |
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10 |
30 |
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30 |
5 |
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5 |
20 |
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20 |
0 |
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0 |
10 |
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10 |
-5 |
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-5 |
0 |
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0 |
-10 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-10 |
-10 |
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Real GDP (qoq) |
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-10 |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
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-15 08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -15 |
-20 08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
-20 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC
Exhibit 49: Malaysia Inflation |
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Exhibit 50: Thailand Inflation |
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Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
6 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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6 |
5 |
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5 |
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5 |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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5 |
4 |
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4 |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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3 |
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3 |
4 |
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4 |
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3 |
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3 |
2 |
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2 |
2 |
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2 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
0 |
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Central Bank Target Range |
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0 |
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-1 |
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Headline CPI Inflation |
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-1 |
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0 |
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0 |
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Core CPI Inflation |
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BBG Consensus Median |
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-1 13 |
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-1 |
-2 11 |
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GS Forecast-headline |
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-2 |
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14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg |
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, BOT |
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Exhibit 51: Malaysia Financial Conditions |
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Exhibit 52: Thailand Financial Conditions |
Index |
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Index |
Index |
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Index |
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103 |
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103 |
104 |
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104 |
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Nominal FCI |
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Real FCI |
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tighter |
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103 |
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Nominal FCI |
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tighter |
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103 |
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102 |
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102 |
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Real FCI |
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102 |
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102 |
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101 |
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101 |
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101 |
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101 |
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100 |
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|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
|
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
31 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 53: Indonesia Activity Growth |
|
Exhibit 54: Philippines Activity Growth |
|
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
15 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
|
10 |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
0 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 0 |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
|
-5 |
||||
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -10 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC |
|
|
|
Exhibit 55: Indonesia Inflation |
|
Exhibit 56: Philippines Inflation |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
||||||
10 |
|
|
|
|
Central Bank Target Range |
10 |
7 |
|
|
|
Central Bank Target Range |
|
7 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
9 |
|
|
|
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
|
9 |
6 |
|
|
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Core CPI Inflation |
|
|
|
|
Core CPI Inflation |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
BBG Consensus Median |
|
|
|
|
|
|
BBG Consensus Median |
|
5 |
||
8 |
|
|
|
|
GS Forecast-headline |
|
8 |
5 |
|
|
|
GS Forecast-headline |
|
|
||
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
2 |
-1 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
-1 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, BI |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, BSP |
|
|
|
Exhibit 57: Indonesia Financial Conditions |
|
Exhibit 58: Philippines Financial Conditions |
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
|
108 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
108 |
104 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
104 |
|
106 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
106 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real FCI |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real FCI |
102 |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
104 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
104 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
|
102 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
|
100 |
||
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94 |
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
90 |
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|||
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
32 |
vk.com/id446425943
Goldman Sachs
EM Macro Navigator
Exhibit 59: Hong Kong Activity Growth |
|
Exhibit 60: Singapore Activity Growth |
|
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
Percent change, annualized |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
15 |
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
15 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
-5 |
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (qoq) |
|
|
|
|
-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
-10 |
|
|
|
|
GS Current Activity Indicator (mom) |
|
|
-10 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
-15 08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -15 |
-5 11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 -5 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, CEIC |
Exhibit 61: Hong Kong Inflation
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
||
8 |
|
|
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
BBG Consensus Median |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Core CPI Inflation |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
CPI inflation excluding govt measures |
6 |
||
|
|
|
GS Forecast-headline |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
0 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
0 |
Exhibit 62: Singapore Inflation
Percent change, yoy |
|
|
|
|
Percent change, yoy |
||
5 |
|
|
|
|
MAS Inflation Forecast* |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
4 |
|
|
|
|
Headline CPI Inflation |
4 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
Core CPI Inflation** |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
BBG Consensus Median |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
2 |
|
|
|
|
GS Forecast-headline |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-1 |
-2 13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
-2 |
*The forecast is for headline |
CPI inflation. |
|
|
|
|
||
**Official MAS core CPI excludes accommodation and private road transportation costs but includes food inflation.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg |
|
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, MAS |
|
|
|
Exhibit 63: Hong Kong Financial Conditions |
|
Exhibit 64: Singapore Financial Conditions |
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index |
||
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
101 |
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
Nominal FCI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
100 |
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
tighter |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
96 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
94 |
98 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
98 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research |
11 December 2018 |
33 |