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Deutsche

Another year of signiﬁcant EBITDA margin consensus cut in 2018

Bank

■

FY 18 EBITDA consensus downgrades for cyclical stocks have mainly been driven by margins rather than top-line cuts.

■

We believe in particular that the reinﬂation of coal / oil in Q2 18 after the DM price increase implementation has been particularly detrimental for

AG/London

cement stocks as a second round of price increase has been very di cult to implement.

Figure 70: Consensus margin evolution by sub-sector

Figure 71: Newcastle Coal evolution vs. future price at end of 2017

■

We believe energy price inﬂation above expectations has caused c50% of Heidelberg EBITDA consensus downgrades in 2018E.

20.0%

130

19.5%

19.4%

18.9%

120

19.0%

110

18.5%

100

18.0%

17.6%

17.5%

17.0%

16.5%

16.2%

16.0%

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Average - Cyclical stocks

Average - Structural stocks

Newcastle spot price

Newcastle future price as of Nov 17

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP.

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP

Figure 72: Oil price evolution vs. forecasts end of 2017

Figure 73: Reconciliation Heidelberg EBITDA consensus evolution YTD

3,700

3,600

3,569

3,500

160

3,400

100

3,300

3,200

c10% energy cost

3,088

3,100

inflation for FY 18E

3,000

2,900

17-Jan

17-Feb

17-Mar

17-Apr

17-May

17-Jun

17-Jul

17-Aug

17-Sep

17-Oct

17-Nov

17-Dec

18-Jan

18-Feb

18-Mar

18-Apr

18-May

18-Jun

18-Jul

18-Aug

18-Sep

18-Oct

18-Nov

2,800

quarry sales

(mainly

2018

Start of year

Energy costs

Gains on

Q1 miss

Others

As of Nov

Crude oil price ($/bbl)

DB forecasts as of Jan 18

weather)

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

31 Page

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32 Page	EBITDA margin consensus cuts since start of year
32 Page	■	Cement companies and Tarkett have seen the highest EBITDA margins downgrade due to a high inﬂation environment coupled with a limited ability
		to adjust price over the course of the year.

	Figure 74: Cyclical stocks have had lower pricing power vs. structural growth stocks in 2018
		Cemex	Heidelberg	Tarkett	Buzzi	Titan	LafargeHolcim	Saint Gobain	Sika	Geberit	CRH	Kingspan
	0.0%
	0.0%											-0.3%
	-0.5%									-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
									-0.5%	-0.3%
								-0.6%	-0.5%
								-0.6%
	-1.0%
							-1.1%
	-1.5%
						-1.6%
	-2.0%			-1.9%	-1.9%
				-1.9%	-1.9%
	-2.5%	-2.3%	-2.3%
	-2.5%	-2.3%	-2.3%
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	Costs to follow di erentiated patterns in 2019
	Costs to follow di erentiated patterns in 2019
	■	Heavyside stocks (exposure to Electricity in Europe and US / International coal) should continue to see a high inﬂation environment in H1 19 (around
Bank		c10% energy cost inﬂation forecasted) before a moderation in H2 19.
Bank	■	Lightside products (mostly oil derivatives, limited energy cost exposure) should also see a continuation of cost inﬂation until at least Q1 19 (four to
AG/London	■
AG/London		six months lag between oil price and oil derivatives prices evolution).

	■	The low levels of the Rhine river in Germany could also cause some supply disruption and switch to more expensive alternative suppliers.

	Figure 75: Electricity prices in Europe (2018 = 100)		Figure 76: Coal & Natural gas price evolution (2018 = 100)

150																							150
150																							140										135
140																							140										135
140																							130
130																							130
130																							120										116
120																																	116

																							110
110																							110
110																							100										94
100																							100										94
100																							90
90																							90										93
90																							80										93
80																							80
80																							70
70																							70
70																							60
60																							60	Feb-18	Mar-18	Apr-18	May-18		Jul-18	Aug-18	Sep-18	Oct-18	Nov-18
60		Jan-18									Jun-18	Jun-18	Jul-18	Jul-18	Jul-18								Jan-18					Jun-18
Jan-18	Jan-18	Jan-18	Feb-18	Feb-18	Mar-18	Mar-18	Apr-18	Apr-18	May-18	May-18	Jun-18	Jun-18	Jul-18	Jul-18	Jul-18	Aug-18	Aug-18	Sep-18	Sep-18	Oct-18	Oct-18	Nov-18	Jan-18					Jun-18
	France			Italy			Belgium				Germany				Poland			Nordics				UK		Newcastle Coal						Rotterdam Coal
	France			Italy			Belgium				Germany				Poland			Nordics				UK		Natural Gas (US)						Central Appalachian coal
																								Natural Gas (US)						Central Appalachian coal
Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP																							Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP. Nov 2018 index as of 26 Nov closing.

Figure 77: Oil and oil derivate product prices (2018 = 100)

120
115
110
105
100										98
100
95										94
90										90
85										86
80										83
75
70			Apr-18	May-18			Aug-18	Sep-18	Oct-18	Nov-18
Jan-18	Feb-18	Mar-18	Apr-18	May-18	Jun-18	Jul-18	Aug-18	Sep-18	Oct-18	Nov-18
	Brent Crude						Naphta
	Polyethytlene linear low density						MDI W Europe

Polystyrene General purpose

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP. Nov 2018 index as of 26 Nov closing.

33 Page

Figure 78: Miscellaneous commodities' prices (2018 = 100)

115								110
115

110
105								102
								102
100								100
								98
95								94
								94
90
85
85	Jan-18 Feb-18		Mar-18		Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18		Jul-18 Aug-18	Sep-18 Oct-18
	Jan-18 Feb-18		Mar-18		Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18		Jul-18 Aug-18	Sep-18 Oct-18
		Paper		Steel		Polyurethane	PVC	Cast iron
		Paper		Steel		Polyurethane	PVC	Cast iron

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP

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34 Page	Negative cement price vs. cost in H2 18 does not bode well for H1 19.
34 Page	■	We expect price vs. cost to remain in general negative in H1 19E: energy costs inﬂation should remain at an elevated level while most prices increases
		in DM should be implemented only in April with full impact to be seen only in Q3.
	■	Among cement stocks, we believe Buzzi (thanks to Germany, Italy and Poland) should be the only one with a positive price vs. cost in H2 18E.

	Figure 79: Price vs. cost in negative territories for cement stocks since								Figure 80: Energy cost inﬂation should remain high at least until Q2 19
	H1 17								(example of Heidelberg)
	4%							130																		14%
	3%							125																		12%
																										12%
	2%							120																		10%
	2%																									10%
	1%							115																		8%
	1%																									8%
	0%							110
								105																		6%
																										6%

	-1%							100													Energy cost inflation					4%
	-1%																				Energy cost inflation					4%
																					Energy cost inflation
	-2%							95													should remain high					2%
								95													should remain high					2%
	-3%		H2 16	H1 17	H2 17	H1 18	H2 18E	90																			0%
	-3%							90																			0%
										Q1 16	Q2 16	Q3 16	Q4 16	Q1 17	Q2 17	Q3 17	Q4 17	Q1 18	Q2 18	Q3 18	Q4 18E	Q1 19E	Q2 19E	Q3 19E	Q4 19E
			Buzzi	Cemex	CRH	Heidelberg	LafargeHolcim						YoY increase (rhs,%)							Energy cost Index HEI (lhs)
			Buzzi	Cemex	CRH	Heidelberg	LafargeHolcim						YoY increase (rhs,%)							Energy cost Index HEI (lhs)
	Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP								Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP
	Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP								Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	LafargeHolcim to beneﬁt from self-help in 2019.
	LafargeHolcim to beneﬁt from self-help in 2019.
Bank	■	Reﬂecting disappointing results in 2017-18, most ‘cyclical growth’ companies have announced new costs savings program.
Bank	■	We believe the impact should be visible in 2019 mostly for LafargeHolcim (we estimate a positive impact of CHF250m in 2019 of SG&A savings, eg
	■
AG/London		4% of FY 19E EBITDA). This does not take into account potential savings from potential downstream businesses margins improvement.
AG/London	■	Between synergies and business improvement measures, CRH has the most ambitious cost savings program over the 2019-21 period. However the
	■
		beneﬁts are expected to be back end-loaded with only E40m of synergies expected in 2019 (c1% of Group EBITDA).

	Figure 81: LafargeHolcim should beneﬁt from self help the most

			Total cost		Assumed	% FY 19E
	Company		Total cost	Timescale	impact in	% FY 19E	Comments
	Company		cutting target	Timescale	impact in	EBITDA	Comments
			cutting target		2019E	EBITDA
					2019E
		Buzzi	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Synergies in newly German asset could bring E5-10m of fixed costs savings (c1.5% FY 19E EBITDA)
		Cemex	$150m	2019-20	$75m	2.8%	Stronger Cemex plan announced in Q2 18 focused on SG&A, process and procurement
		CRH	E450m	2019-21	E40m	1.1%	Synergies (E130m) + Business improvement (E325m) however benefits to be back-end loaded
	Heidelberg		E100m	2019-20	E30m	1.0%	SG&A savings target announced after profit warning in Q3
	LafargeHolcim		CHF400m	2018-20	CHF250m	4.2%	SG&A savings from corp. closures as well as countries / regions
		Titan	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
		Sika	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	No specific cost cutting besides synergies and margin improvement from recently acquired companies
		Geberit	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
		Tarkett	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	No specific plan - but on an ongoing basis the company intends to improve productivity by cE40m per year
	Saint Gobain		E250m	2019-21	E50m	1.5%	E250m of additional savings announced on Nov 26 2018 on top of ongoing fixed costs savings program
	Kingspan		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	No specific cost cutting besides synergies and margin improvement from recently acquired companies
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

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Page	At spot price, FX to be a tailwind on EURO stocks
36

■Reﬂecting the USD appreciation vs. EUR, we calculate at spot price a positive FX translation impact on 2019E Sales for all EURO reporting stocks.

■We estimate at spot price a negative FX translation impact in 2019 for stocks reporting in CHF or USD. (more so for Cemex, penalized by the c6% Mexican Peso depreciation vs. USD ).

■Key LafargeHolcim EM currencies are holding so far well - Mexico and Argentina are two notable exceptions, however in markets where the local industry has historically been able to compensate currencies depreciation by local price increase.

Figure 82: FX impact on Sales based on geographic footprints												Figure 83: Key currency rates and expected movements

4%													FY 18E	FY 19E	Exp. YoY movement
2.9%												EUR --> USD	1.181	1.134	4.1%
3%		2.0%
		2.0%	1.8%									EUR --> GBP	0.884	0.884	-0.1%
2%			1.8%	1.3%	1.3%							EUR --> GBP	0.884	0.884	-0.1%
2%				1.3%	1.3%	1.0%						CHF --> USD	1.022	1.001	2.1%
						1.0%
1%							0.3%
1%							0.3%					CHF --> EUR	0.866	0.883	-1.9%
0%												CHF --> EUR	0.866	0.883	-1.9%
0%												CHF --> Nigerian Naira	369.48	364.67	1.3%
-1%												CHF --> Nigerian Naira	369.48	364.67	1.3%
-1%												CHF --> Indian Rupee	69.84	70.90	-1.5%
-2%								-0.9%	-1.3%	-1.5%		CHF --> Indian Rupee	69.84	70.90	-1.5%
-2%									-1.3%			EUR --> Indonesia Rupee	16776.9	16413.9	2.2%


-3%											-2.9%	USD --> MXN Peso	19.28	20.52	-6.0%
											-2.9%	USD --> MXN Peso	19.28	20.52	-6.0%
-4%	Titan	CRH	Tarkett	Buzzi	Heidelberg	Kingspan	Saint Gobain	LafargeHolcim	Sika	Geberit	Cemex
	Titan	CRH	Tarkett	Buzzi	Heidelberg	Kingspan	Saint Gobain	LafargeHolcim	Sika	Geberit	Cemex
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset												Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset. Note: FY19E assumed to same as that of 26 Nov closing.
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	DB forecasts vs. consensus
Deutsche
Bank	■	Our 2019E EBITDA forecasts are on average c1% below consensus.
AG/London	■	Our FY 19E EBITDA forecasts for LafargeHolcim are 0.8% above the Street. We believe however that consensus has yet to reﬂect Holcim Indonesia
	■	This is especially the case for Geberit (more cautious view on organic sales growth and impact of the recent CHF appreciation vs. EUR) but also on
		Cemex (Mexican Peso depreciation vs. USD) and Tarkett (more cautious view taken on margins in H1 19).
		divestment (cCHF110m EBITDA impact) - this would place our forecasts c2.5-3% above consensus for FY 19E.

	Figure 84: DB estimates vs. consensus
					DB estimates		Consensus	DBe vs. consensus
	Company		Key operating metric	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E

	Buzzi Unicem		Recurring EBITDA	617	667	614	655	0.6%	1.8%
	Cemex		EBITDA	2,720	2,935	2,765	2,950	-1.6%	-0.5%
	CRH		EBITDA	3,761	4,203	3,778	4,058	-0.5%	3.6%
	Geberit		EBITDA	885	914	917	961	-3.5%	-4.9%
	HeidelbergCement		EBITDA	3,218	3,433	3,231	3,407	-0.4%	0.8%
	Kingspan		EBITA	496	535	498	543	-0.4%	-1.5%
	LafargeHolcim		Recurring EBITDA	6,391	6,793	6,338	6,698	0.8%	1.4%
	Saint Gobain		EBIT	3,353	3,604	3,394	3,638	-1.2%	-0.9%
	Sika		EBIT	1,145	1,263	1,150	1,285	-0.4%	-1.7%
	Tarkett		EBITDA	295	317	307	337	-3.8%	-5.7%
	Titan Cement		EBITDA	299	332	295	317	1.3%	4.9%
	Average							-0.8%	-0.3%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset. Note: Factset estimates as of 28 Nov.

37 Page

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Page	Valuation - Sector trades well below mid-cycle
38

■After 2018 de-rating, the sector now trades at 13.7x 2019E P/E (vs. 14.9x for mid-cycle level) and 9.0x 2019E EV/EBITDA.

■This hides however a clear skew between ‘cyclical stocks’ (heavyside, Saint Gobain & Tarkett - 11.3x 2019E P/E & 6.8x 2019E EV/EBITDA) and the ‘structural growth stocks’ (Sika, Geberit & Kingspan - 20.4x 2019E P/E & 14.7x 2019E EV/EBITDA).

■Cyclical stocks clealry o er value with 2019E P/E well below mid-cycle levels for most companies. This is especially true for Saint Gobain (2019E P/ E only 19% above the historical trough level seen in 2009).

■Our analysis of Saint Gobain 12m forward P/E vs. European PMI also shows value in the stock. While historically Saint Gobain 12m forward P/E has been very well correlated to the European PMI, we note a clear disconnection between both metrics since mid of 2017 with the current stock's 12m forward P/E more consistent with an European PMI level below 45 (eg a clear recession scenario).

■For structural growth stocks, after YTD strong performance, Kingspan valuation discount vs. other structural growth stocks has faded and is now back to pre-Brexit levels. As such, we believe the stock could be now more vulnerable to any negative news regarding the UK market.

Figure 85: Valuation - European Building & Construction stocks

Company	Reuters	Current	DB	Upside /	DB	Market	EV/EBITDA (x)		P/E (x)		FCF Yield		Dividend Yield		Net debt / EBITDA (x)
	Code	Price	Target Price	downside	Rating	Cap (E m)	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E	2019E	2020E
Cyclical avg.				17.0%			6.8	6.0	11.3	9.5	8.6%	10.5%	3.4%	3.8%	2.0	1.6
Buzzi Unicem	BZU.MI	16.8	21.0	25.0%	Buy	3,453	5.1	4.1	11.8	10.0	10.1%	11.2%	1.2%	1.6%	1.2	0.6
Cemex	CX.N	4.9	6.0	22.0%	Buy	6,381	6.9	6.0	10.8	7.7	13.4%	17.6%	na	na	3.3	2.6
CRH	CRH.I	24.3	28.0	15.2%	Hold	19,685	7.1	6.0	11.6	9.8	7.3%	8.7%	3.2%	3.8%	1.6	1.1
HeidelbergCement	HEIG.DE	59.4	72.0	21.2%	Hold	11,786	7.3	6.5	9.1	7.9	9.9%	11.9%	4.4%	5.1%	2.3	1.9
LafargeHolcim	LHN.S	44.8	54.0	20.5%	Buy	23,753	7.3	6.7	11.8	10.4	7.0%	8.7%	4.5%	4.6%	2.0	1.7
Saint Gobain	SGOB.PA	32.9	43.0	30.6%	Buy	18,127	5.8	5.3	8.9	8.0	8.5%	9.5%	4.5%	5.0%	1.5	1.2
Tarkett	TKTT.PA	21.7	20.5	-5.4%	Hold	1,372	7.4	6.8	13.4	11.8	5.8%	6.9%	3.0%	3.4%	2.3	1.9
Titan Cement	TTNr.AT	19.6	21.0	7.4%	Hold	1,582	7.7	6.5	12.9	10.6	7.1%	9.2%	2.8%	2.8%	2.1	1.5

Structural growth avg.				21.0%			14.7	13.5	20.4	18.9	4.6%	5.1%	2.1%	2.3%	0.8	0.5
Geberit	GEBN.S	385.1	430.0	11.7%	Hold	12,324	16.8	16.1	22.3	21.4	4.3%	4.4%	2.9%	3.0%	0.5	0.5
Kingspan	KSP.I	37.7	45.0	19.4%	Hold	6,743	13.3	11.9	18.1	16.7	4.9%	5.7%	1.3%	1.4%	0.9	0.3
Sika	SIKA.S	121.3	160.0	31.9%	Buy	15,109	13.9	12.3	20.7	18.6	4.6%	5.1%	2.1%	2.3%	1.1	0.6
Sector average				18.1%			9.0	8.0	13.7	12.1	7.5%	9.0%	3.0%	3.3%	1.7	1.3

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Reuters. Note: Valuation and Current price as of closing of 28 Nov 2018.

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	Cyclical stocks have de-rated since start of year
	Cyclical stocks have de-rated since start of year
Bank	■	Cyclical stocks have clearly de-rated in 2018 and trade for the ﬁrst time since mid 2009 below average STOXX 600 P/E.
Bank	■	Most cyclical stocks 2019E P/E are signiﬁcantly below mid-cycle level.
	■
AG/London	■	In spite of its less cyclical exposure thanks to renovation and increasing geographical diversiﬁcation, Saint Gobain is the closest to trough valuation
AG/London		(only 16% downside P/E to trough).
		(only 16% downside P/E to trough).

	Figure 86: 12m forward P/E evolution over the cycle by sub-sector		Figure 87: 12m forward P/E by sub-sector relative to the market

80%

60%

40%

20%

-20%

Dec-06

Nov-07

Oct-08

Sep-09

Aug-10

Jun-12

May-13

Apr-14

Dec-17

Nov-18

-40%

Dec-06

Nov-07

May-13

Apr-14

Dec-17

Nov-18

Jan-06

Jul-11

Mar-15

Feb-16

Jan-17

Jan-06

Oct-08

Sep-09

Aug-10

Jul-11

Jun-12

Mar-15

Feb-16

Jan-17

Cyclical stocks

Structural stocks

Cyclical stocks

Structural stocks

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset

Figure 88: Valuation analysis of mid-cycle and trough P/E levels

		P/E		(Downside)/Upside on
Company	2019E	Mid-cycle	Trough	Mid-cycle	Trough
Company	2019E	(2008-2018)	Trough	(2008-2018)	Trough
		(2008-2018)		(2008-2018)

Buzzi	10.1	15.7	7.2	56%	-28%
Cemex	11.0	15.5	7.3	41%	-34%
CRH	11.7	15.0	8.4	29%	-28%
Heidelberg	9.0	12.0	6.3	34%	-30%
LafargeHolcim	12.2	14.2	8.4	16%	-31%
Saint Gobain	8.9	12.4	7.5	39%	-16%
Tarkett	12.9	15.0	12.9	16%	0%
Titan	16.0	14.5	8.5	-10%	-47%
Average	11.5	14.3	8.3	27.7%	-26.7%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset

39 Page

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40 Page	Disconnection of stocks' P/E vs. PMI suggests a sharp slowdown is already priced in
40 Page	■	Cyclical stocks 12m forward P/E is in general well correlated to European PMI - this is especially true for Saint Gobain which is widely seen as a
		European construction proxy.
	■	Since start of year we however note a strong disconnection between valuation and PMI as the market is in our view already anticipating a sharp
		macro slowdown.
	■	In particular, Saint Gobain trades at 8.9x 2019E P/E, a level consistent with a PMI below 45 (i.e. in clear recession mode) and at valuation levels not
		seen since the 2009 and 2012 recessions.

	Figure 89: Europe PMI vs. 12m forward P/E evolution: Saint Gobain		Figure 90: HeidelbergCement

65																	25	65																	25
60																	20	60																	20
																	20																		20
55																		55
50																	15	50																	15
50																		50
45																	10	45																	10
																	10																		10
40																		40
35																	5	35																	5
35																		35
30																	0	30	Oct-06	Jul-07	Apr-08			Jul-10	Apr-11				Apr-14		Oct-15		Apr-17		0
Jan-06	Oct-06	Jul-07	Apr-08	Jan-09	Oct-09	Jul-10	Apr-11	Jan-12	Oct-12	Jul-13	Apr-14	Jan-15	Oct-15	Jul-16	Apr-17	Jan-18	Oct-18	Jan-06	Oct-06	Jul-07	Apr-08	Jan-09	Oct-09	Jul-10	Apr-11	Jan-12	Oct-12	Jul-13	Apr-14	Jan-15	Oct-15	Jul-16	Apr-17	Jan-18	Oct-18
				Europe PMI							SGO 12m forward P/E (rhs)											Europe PMI							HEI 12m forward P/E (rhs)

Source:Deutsche Bank, Factset	Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset

Figure 91: CRH

Figure 92: Buzzi Unicem

	65														25	65															30
	60														20	60															25
															20																25
	55															55															20
	50														15																20
															15	50

																															15
	45														10	45															15
	45

	40															40															10
															5	40
	35														5																5
	35															35															5
																35
	30	Oct-06	Jul-07	Apr-08			Apr-11			Apr-14			Jul-16	Apr-17	0	30															0
	Jan-06				Jan-09	Oct-09		Jan-12	Oct-12		Jan-15	Oct-15			Oct-18	30															0
Deutsche	Jan-06				Jan-09	Oct-09					Jan-15	Oct-15				-Jan06	-Oct06	-Jul07	-Apr08	-Jan09	-Oct09	Apr-11	Jan-12	Oct-12	-Jul13	-Apr14	-Jan15	-Oct15	-Jul16	-Apr17	Oct-18
Deutsche						Jul10-				Jul13-				Jan18-							Jul10-	Apr-11	Jan-12	Oct-12						Jan18-	Oct-18
					Europe PMI					CRH 12m forward P/E (rhs)										Europe PMI					Buzzi 12m forward P/E (rhs)
																				Europe PMI					Buzzi 12m forward P/E (rhs)
	Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset															Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset
AG/London Bank

Building European	2018 December 3 Materials Building
Construction &

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