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Deutsche	The US: Robust growth in 2019 but housing risks are mounting
Deutsche	US construction still below mid-cycle level
Bank	■	Mainly driven by the residential segment which is still 20% below mid-cycle level and more than 40% below peak levels, US construction market
	■
AG/London		is below the long-term average.
AG/London		Titan Cement has the highest upside potential to mid-cycle due to its Florida exposure while Buzzi is the closest to mid-cycle (however still below)
	■	When taking into account the population growth, we believe 2018 cement demand is c15% below mid-cycle level.
	■
		due to Texas.

Figure 11: US cement demand vs. population evolution																												Figure 12: US cement demand per capita evolution
140																									323		350	450
																									323
120																											300
																												400
100																									94.3		250																				378			Long-term average:
																																																		Long-term average:
80																											200	350																							328 kg / inh.
																												350

60																											150																											292
60																											150	300
																												300				299
40																											100					299
40																											100														281
																																									281
20																											50	250
20																											50
0																											0									233														228
0																											0	200
1965	1967	1969	1971	1973	1975	1977	1979	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017		200
1965	1967	1969	1971	1973	1975	1977	1979	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017		1965	1967	1969	1971	1973	1975	1977	1979	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017

US cement demand (lhs)

US Population (rhs)

US cement demand per cap

1965-2017 average

Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, US PCA

Figure 13: US housing starts (SAAR '000)		Figure 14: Demand evolution per capita on companies' footprint

2,500																													2018 vs 1965-	2018 vs.	Peak vs. 2018
																													2018 average	trough	Peak vs. 2018
2,000																													2018 average	trough
																						Long term avg -						Buzzi	-8%	32%	37%
																							1,433					Buzzi	-8%	32%	37%
																							1,433
1,500																												Cemex	-16%	41%	63%
																												Cemex	-16%	41%	63%
1,000																										1203		CRH (Heavyside)	-15%	21%	46%
500																												Heidelberg	-13%	27%	45%
500
																												LafargeHolcim	-14%	22%	45%
0																												Titan	-21%	46%	94%
1965	1967	1969	1971	1973	1975	1977	1979	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017		Titan	-21%	46%	94%
1965	1967	1969	1971	1973	1975	1977	1979	1981	1983	1985	1987	1989	1991	1993	1995	1997	1999	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017
Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census																											Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census																											Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

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12Page		The US growth should show no sign of moderation in 2019
12Page		■		All leading indicators point at a continued cement demand growth in 2019: building permits are up 6% YoY YTD, Dodge Momentum Index on non
				residential buildings is also up c15-20% YoY while 12m trailing highways awards are up 14% in Sept 18.
		■		PCA (the reference for cement consultants in the US) shares this optimism for 2019E, with cement demand growth forecasts of 2.6%.

		Figure 15: PCA US cement forecasts for 2019E - 20E							Figure 16: YoY change in 9m trailing US building permits
									40%
		FALL 2018			2017	2018E	2019E	2020E	40%
		FALL 2018			2017	2018E	2019E	2020E	35%
									35%
		RESIDENTIAL			6.8%	3.8%	3.1%	1.7%	30%
									25%
		NON-RESI			8.7%	1.7%	2.9%	2.4%	20%
		INFRASTRUCTURE			-2.0%	2.8%	2.2%	1.2%	15%
		INFRASTRUCTURE			-2.0%	2.8%	2.2%	1.2%	10%
									10%													5%
		TOTAL			2.4%	2.9%	2.6%	1.6%	5%													5%
		TOTAL			2.4%	2.9%	2.6%	1.6%	5%
									0%


									-5%
									-10%
									-15%
									-15%
									Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12		Oct-12	Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14	Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14	Jan-15	Apr-15	Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16	Jan-17	Apr-17 Jul-17	Oct-17	Jan-18	Apr-18	Jul-18 Oct-18
		Source: Deutsche Bank, US PCA							Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset
		Source: Deutsche Bank, US PCA							Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset


		Figure 17: Dodge Momentum Index (Commercial + Institutional							Figure 18: YoY change in 12m trailing highway awards
		Building)
	180								20%
	180								20%
	160								15%
									15%
	140							150.5	10%													14%
																						14%
	120
	120
	100								5%
	100
	80								0%
	80								0%
	60								-5%
									-5%
	40
	20								-10%
	20
	0								-15%	Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17	Feb-17	Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17	Jul-17 Aug-17	Sep-17	Oct-17	Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18	Apr-18	May-18	Jun-18	Jul-18	Aug-18	Sep-18

				JUN-11 OCT-11 FEB-12 JUN-12 OCT-12 FEB-13 JUN-13 OCT-13	FEB-14 JUN-14 OCT-14 FEB-15		OCT-16 FEB-17 JUN-17 OCT-17 FEB-18	JUN-18 OCT-18
			FEB-11	JUN-11 OCT-11 FEB-12 JUN-12 OCT-12 FEB-13 JUN-13 OCT-13	FEB-14 JUN-14 OCT-14 FEB-15	JUN-15 OCT-15 FEB-16 JUN-16	OCT-16 FEB-17 JUN-17 OCT-17 FEB-18	JUN-18 OCT-18
AG/LondonBankDeutsche		Source: Deutsche Bank, Dodge Data & Analytics							Source: Deutsche Bank, US DoT, Bloomberg Finance LP
AG/LondonBankDeutsche		Source: Deutsche Bank, Dodge Data & Analytics							Source: Deutsche Bank, US DoT, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Deutsche	2019 Growth in the US should remain dictated by the footprint

Bank		■	With US regions at di erent stages of the recovery, we believe cement demand growth will remain dictated by the footprint.
Bank		■	We see above average demand growth on Cemex and Titan (driven by the residential but also strong infrastructure).
		■
AG/London		■	State by state building permits and highways awards analysis suggest CRH and LafargeHolcim could see demand growth below country average.

		12%	10.7%											30%
		Figure 19: YoY % YTD US building permits on companies’ US footprints												Figure 20: YoY change in trailing 12m highway awards dollars
			9.9%										25%																	22%
			9.9%
	10%
	10%												20%
													20%
	8%					6.5%							15%
								5.8%					15%

	6%												10%
									4.2%				10%

													5%																	5%
	4%									2.7%			0%																	5%
											2.4%


	2%												-5%
	2%
													-10%
	0%		CementTitan		Cemex	USAverage		Heidelberg	CRH	UnicemBuzzi	LafargeHolcim		-15%		16-Sep	16-Oct 16-Nov 16-Dec	Jan-17 AllFeb-17otherMar-17		marketsApr-17 May-17	17-Jul 17-Aug	17-Sep 17-Oct 17-Nov	17-Dec		VulcanFeb-18	marketsApr-18		18-Jun	18-Jul	18-Aug	18-Sep
													-15%
													-20%
													-20%						Jun-17				Jan-18		Mar-18	May-18
																			Jun-17				Jan-18		Mar-18	May-18

	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data													Source: Deutsche Bank, US DoT
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data													Source: Deutsche Bank, US DoT


		Figure 21: ABI Index by region and regional exposure by company												Figure 22: Overlap with key Vulcan states by company

				ABI Index	Buzzi		Cemex	CRH	Heidelberg	LafargeHolcim		Titan				LTM		VMC
		North East		46.6	6%	0%		15%	26%	12%		15%				awards	revenues		Buzzi	Cemex	CRH	Heidelberg				LafargeHolcim				Titan
		West		51.3	1%	29%		28%	21%	14%		0%		California		66%	17%		0%	22%	0%		15%			0%				0%
		South		54.1	53%	66%		30%	35%	38%		85%		California		66%	17%		0%	22%	0%		15%			0%				0%
		South		54.1	53%	66%		30%	35%	38%		85%		Texas		23%	17%		35%	17%	6%		14%			15%				0%
		Midwest		59.7	39%	5%		27%	18%	36%		0%		Texas		23%	17%		35%	17%	6%		14%			15%				0%
		Midwest		59.7	39%	5%		27%	18%	36%		0%		Tennessee		43%	10%		6%	6%	2%		0%			1%				0%
		Average		52.9	55.8	53.6		53.7	52.6	54.8		53.0		Tennessee		43%	10%		6%	6%	2%		0%			1%				0%
		Average		52.9	55.8	53.6		53.7	52.6	54.8		53.0
														Virginia		172%	10%		0%	0%	1%		4%			3%				20%
														Georgia		-45%	10%		0%	6%	0%		3%			3%				0%
														Total			64%		41%	51%	9%		37%			23%				20%
	Source: Deutsche Bank, AIA													Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, US DoT, Company data
	Source: Deutsche Bank, AIA													Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, US DoT, Company data

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14Page		2017-18 weather has been exceptionally unfavourable in the US
14Page			■		Weather impact on volumes in the US has been a recurring theme in 2017 and 2018.
			■		Our analysis also conﬁrms Q1 18 has been impacted by more freezing days than Q1 17 – however this was more due to exceptionally mild weather
					conditions in Q1 17 rather than particulary cold weather in Q1 18.
			■		This points as comps for Q1 19 in the US not as easy as investors might believe.
			■		Our analysis on each company’s US footprint shows however that 2017 and 2018 have seen exceptionally wet weather on all companies’ US footprints
					(mainly in Q3).

		Figure 23: 2017-17 have been exceptionally wet weather years on companies' US footprints
													# of freezing days														# of days with preci > 15												# of days with preci > 25															# of days with preci > 35
		Company									2018					2017				Avg 30y						2018					2017			Avg 30y					2018				2017					Avg 30y					2018					2017				Avg 30y
		Buzzi										22					15					21				67					63			56					42					40					33					28					27					20
		Cemex										8					5					7				67					64			55					41					40					30					24					25					17
		CRH										32					27					31				62					61			49					37					38					27					23					24					16
		Heidelberg										21					17					21				63					61			52					40					38					30					26					25					17
		LafargeHolcim										30					22					29				68					66			54					42					41					31					27					28					18
		Titan										12					8					11				107					85			73					63					51					38					35					31					20

		Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP
		Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP


		Figure 24: Average # of days with Temp below 0 degree on companies'																																	Figure 25: Average # of days with precipitations > 25mm on companies'
		US footprint																																	US footprint
	30																																	50
																																		45
	25																																	40
																																		40
	20																																	35
	20
																																		30
	15																																	25
																																		20
	10																																	15
																																		15
	5																																	10
	5
Deutsche			1989	1990		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	5		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Deutsche	0		1989	1990		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	0		1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
AG/London Bank		Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP																																	Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP
		Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP																																	Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Deutsche		■	Based on the last 30 years monthly analysis, we estimate that precipitations in Q3 have caused 3-6% cement demand loss on companies’ US footprints
	3-6% volume upside on US footprints in case of weather normalization
Bank			vs. a more normalized weather pattern.
			vs. a more normalized weather pattern.
AG/London		■	We believe Titan has been the most impacted with exceptionally wet weather in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic region in 2018.

		Figure 26: Cement volumes lost in 2018 vs. ‘normalized’ weather conditions

					# of freezing days			# of days with precip. > 25mm
										Total 2018 weather impact
						Impact cement demand			Impact cement demand	vs. 30y average on cement
		Company		2018	30y avg	freezing days	2018	30y avg	precipitations	volumes
		Buzzi		22	21	0.3%	42	33	2.4%	2.7%
		Cemex		8	7	0.2%	41	30	3.0%	3.3%
		CRH		32	31	0.2%	37	27	2.5%	2.7%
		Heidelberg		21	21	0.0%	40	30	2.7%	2.7%
		LafargeHolcim		30	29	0.2%	42	31	2.9%	3.1%
		Titan		12	11	0.1%	63	38	6.8%	7.0%
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP



		Figure 27: Impact of freezing day on cement demand growth					Figure 28: Impact of precipitations on cement demand growth: example
							of Texas in Q3

					40%											20%
					40%
(%)					30%						(%)					15%		2011		2004
(%)					30%						(%)
demand									y = 0.9764x + 0.0265		demand					10%
									R² = 0.4714					2006		10%			2010
					20%									2006					2010
					20%														2015
															2013	5%	2007		2014
					10%														2014


adj.YoYcement											adj.YoYcement					0%
adj.YoYcement					0%						adj.YoYcement					-20%
	-40%	-30%	-20%	-10%	0%	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%		-40%	-30%	-20%	-10%	-5% 0%			10%	20%	30%
					-10%							y = 0.4944x - 0.001			2017	2016
					-10%			YoY freezing days impact (%)				y = 0.4944x - 0.001
													R² = 0.4928		2012	-10%	2008
					-20%								R² = 0.4928		2012				YoY precipitations > 25mm
					-20%											-15%	2005		YoY precipitations > 25mm
																-15%	2005		impact (%)
					-30%														impact (%)
					-30%
					-40%								2018
					-40%											-25%
																-25%
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP											Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP

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16 Page	But concerns are mounting on the sustainability of US housing
16 Page	■	Driven by home price inﬂation well above wage increase, US housing a ordability has consistently deteriorated since 2012.
	■	This has notably translated into an increase of high-risk mortgages (deﬁned as DTI > 42%) almost back to 2007 peak.
	■	In a context of (i) rising interests rates (ii) continued spread between house price inﬂation vs. wage increase and (iii) limited room for high-risks
		mortgage increase, we see risks that housing slowdown could continue and even amplify next year.
	Figure 29: A ordability based on median home prices by median																							Figure 30: House price growth vs. wage growth gap gets wider
	household income, since 1974
	6.0																							8%			7.0%
																								7%			7.0%
	5.5																						5.2	7%
	5.5															5.2							5.2	6%
																5.2								6%
	5.0																							5%
	5.0																							4%
																								4%			2.8%
	4.5																							3%			2.8%
	4.5																							3%
	4.0																							2%
	4.0																							1%
																								1%
	3.5																							0%
	3.5																							-1%
																								-1%
	3.0																							-2%
	2.5																							-3%
	2.5																							-4%
																								-4%	Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
	2.0																							Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15		Mar-18 Jun-18	Sep-18
	1974	1976	1978	1980	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016				Mar-18 Jun-18	Sep-18
						New Home									Existing Home									US median home price increase (Zillow)	Private industry weekly wages	increase
						New Home									Existing Home
	Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, NAR, Haver																							Source: Deutsche Bank, Zillow, US Census

	Figure 31: Approx. 40% of GSE loans have DTI ratios above 42%																						Figure 32: New Home Sales dip in periods of increasing mortgage rates
																							in the "Danger Zone"
	45%									43%													1,400
	40%																					38%	1,200
	40%																						1,200
	35%																						1,000
																							1,000
	30%
	25%																						800
	25%
	20%																						600
	15%																						400
																							400
	10%																						200
																							200
	5%
Deutsche	0%																						0	Bank, US Census,Apr-89			FactsetOct-92	Jul-94	Apr-96		Oct-99	Jul-01	Apr-03		Oct-06	Jul-08	Apr-10		Oct-13	Jul-15	Apr-17
	0%	Bank,1998	AEI	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Source: DeutscheJan-84							Jan-98				Jan-05				Jan-12				Jan-19
	Source: Deutsche1996	Bank,1998	AEI	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Source: DeutscheJan-84							Jan-98				Jan-05				Jan-12				Jan-19
	1997		1999																				Oct85-		Jul87-	Jan91-
AG/London Bank

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Deutsche

But concerns are mounting on the sustainability of US housing - continued

Bank

■

Historically, housing sales have slowed down or dipped in a rising interests rates environment while US Building Materials stocks have derated.

Figure 33: Change (bps) in US Borrowing Rates - 30Y Mortgage vs. 10Y

Figure 34: US building mats 12m forward P/E dipping during the

AG/London

US Treasury

"Danger Zone"

changemonthlyin rates

(bps)-4

DANGER

-2

Annual

-6

-8

-10

Jul-12

Jul-15

Jul-18

Jan-11

Oct-11

Apr-13

Jan-14

Oct-14

Apr-16

Jan-17

Oct-17

Apr-19

Feb-18 Jan-19

Jan-97 Dec-97 Nov-98 Oct-99 Sep-00 Aug-01 Jul-02

Jun-03

May-04 Apr-05 Mar-06

Feb-07 Jan-08 Dec-08 Nov-09 Oct-10

Sep-11

Aug-12 Jul-13

Jun-14

May-15 Apr-16 Mar-17

10Y UST Yield

30Y Mortgage Rate

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP. Note: DB ests for 10Y Yields and Policy rates

Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset. Notes: VMC+MLM proxy for US building mats sector

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18 Page	Labour shortage could constrain US construction growth pattern
18 Page	■	Our analysis shows that the productivity of the US construction industry (deﬁned by the construction put in place in USD constant terms by construction
		worker) has almost reached 2005 peak and is stagnating since 3 years.
	■	In the same time, a very tight labor market should constrain additional workers employment.
	■	In this context, we see limited scope for signiﬁcant upside for the US construction market.

	Figure 35: Resi still well below peak and # construction workers too																		Figure 36: But productivity of construction workers is close to peak
																			while labor market is very tight
	130				122													260				256														12%
	130
	120
	120				114												112	250																	246	10%
																		250																		10%

	110																	240																		8%
																		240																		8%
	100																104	230																		6%
																	104	230																		6%
	90																	220																		4%
																		220																		4%
	80																	210																		2%
	70																	200																			0%
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2002		2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
			Construciton spend (2018 USD)									# construction employees								Unemployment rate (rhs)							USD construction spend per employee (2018 USD, lhs)
			Construciton spend (2018 USD)									# construction employees								Unemployment rate (rhs)							USD construction spend per employee (2018 USD, lhs)
	Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, Factset																		Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, Factset
	Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, Factset																		Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census, Factset

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	Europe: New-build weakening but renovation more resilient
Deutsche	Where are we in the cycle?
Bank	■	We see three groups of countries in Europe at di erent stages of the construction cycle.
	■
AG/London		■	Southern Europe countries, Ireland and to a lesser extent France are still well below mid-cycle levels (deﬁned as the average of 2000-17 cement
AG/London			The UK, Benelux, Denmark and Germany are close to mid-cycle levels.
			demand).
		■
		■	Finally Scandinavia and esp. Sweden and Norway 2018 levels are well above mid-cycle and have already started a phase of demand normalization.
	■	This reﬂects into higher upside to mid-cycle for companies with high exposure to South Europe (Titan, Buzzi, Cemex) vs. the most exposed to the
		UK, Germany and Scandinavia (Heidelberg and CRH).

	Figure 37:Upside to mid-cycle vs. 2018 level by country (2000-17			Figure 38:Upside to mid-cycle vs. 2018 level by company (2000-17
	average)			average)

120%	220%	164%							40%	87%
100%	220%	164%							40%	87%
100%		83%
80%		83%							35%
80%									35%
60%		57%							30%
60%

40%		15%
20%		15%	3%	0%					25%
20%			3%	0%
0%									20%
-20%				-2%	-2%	-5%	-7%		15%	13%
-40%							-18%	-19%	15%	10%
							-18%	-19%

Greece

Spain

Italy

Ireland

France

Benelux

Denmark

Germany

KingdomUnited

Switzerland

Finland

Sweden

Norway

10%

Titan

Buzzi

Cemex

LafargeHolcim

Heidelberg

CRH

Source: Deutsche Bank estimate, Factset, Euroconstruct

Source: Deutsche Bank estimate, Company data

19 Page

Building European	2018 December 3 Materials Building
Construction &

vk.com/id446425943

20Page

European residential new-build data have weakened through 2018

■

In spite of a resilient construction PMI and construction conﬁdence evolution index, residential building permits have started to weaken since end

of 2017 in Europe.

■

In Western Europe (France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, UK and Scandinavia) 12m trailing building permits YoY change are now in negative

territories since May 18

■

Eastern Europe 12m trailing building permits (Poland, Romania and Czech Republic) are still up YoY but at a slower pace vs. H2 17 / H1 18.

Figure 39: European construction PMI

Figure 40: 12m trailing YoY building permits growth in Western Europe

25%

20%

15%

10%

-5%

-10%

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

OCT-06

OCT-07

OCT-08

OCT-09

OCT-10

OCT-11

OCT-12

OCT-13

OCT-14

OCT-15

OCT-16

OCT-17

OCT-18

Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver

Source: Deutsche Bank, Datastream, Haver

Figure 41: European construction conﬁdence

Figure 42: 12m trailing YoY building permits growth in Eastern Europe

25%

20%

15%

-5

-10

10%

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

OCT-07

OCT-08

OCT-10

OCT-12

OCT-13

OCT-15

OCT-17

OCT-18

-5%

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Deutsche

OCT-06

OCT-09

OCT-11

OCT-14

OCT-16

Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver

Source: Deutsche Bank, Datastream, Haver

AG/London Bank

Building European	2018 December 3 Materials Building
Construction &

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