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Национальный минерально-сырьевой университет «Горный»

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Page21

DeutscheBankAG/London

.vk

com/id446425943

DatastreamFactset,Bank,Source:Deutsche

evolutionpermitsbuildingEuropeanofSnapshot

5%-15%-

5% 5%-

10%5%

15%

%20 15%

25%25%

PolandUK

SEP-17

25%-20%-

15%-

5%-

15%

25%

35%50%

NorwayFinland

SEP-17 20%-15%-

10%-

5%-

10%5%

15% 20%

30%

40%25%

permitsbuildinginaveragemoving3minchange43:YoYFigure GermanyFrance

10%-

%10

20%

10%-

10%

20%

30%

40%

10%-

10%

20%

MAR-15

JUN-15

SEP-15

DEC-15

MAR-16

JUN-16

SEP-16

DEC-16

MAR-17

JUN-17

SEP-17

DEC-17

MAR-18

JUN-18

SEP-18

MAR-15

JUN-15

SEP-15

DEC-15

MAR-16

JUN-16

SEP-16

DEC-16

MAR-17

JUN-17

SEP-17

MAR-18

DEC-17

MAR-15

10%-

10%

20%

%30

40%

Czech

MAR-18

40%-

20%-

20%

40%

60%

Sweden

MAR-18

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Spain

country

MAR-15

JUN-18

SEP-18

JUN-15

SEP-15

DEC-15

MAR-16

JUN-16

SEP-16

DEC-16

MAR-17

JUN-17

SEP-17

DEC-17

MAR-18

JUN-18

SEP-18

Romania

SEP-18

Italy

SEP-18

Netherlands

15%-

10%-

5%-

15% %10

20%

JUN-15

5%-

3%- 4%-

2%-

1%-

5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

40%-

20%-

20%

40%

60%

80%

MAR-15

JUN-15

SEP-15

DEC-15

MAR-16

JUN-16

SEP-16

DEC-16

MAR-17

JUN-17

SEP-17

DEC-17

MAR-18

JUN-18

SEP-18

EuropeanBuilding&Construction

BuildingMaterials

3December2018

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22Page		Europe renovation should be more resilient than residential new-build
22Page		■	Our historical analysis shows that the European renovation market is much more resilient and less volatile vs. new-build over the cycle.
		■	2007-10 data even suggest they can be quite disconnected from new-build data with half of European countries still showing a positive renovation
			market while newbuild was experiencing a severe downturn in Europe.
		■	In France, renovation market has surprised by its weakness in spite of strong lead indicators (incl. existing house transaction). This is potentially due to
			a lack of skilled labor. Whether the slowdown of the new-build segment will free some workforce and translate into an acceleration of the renovation
			market remains however to be seen.

		Figure 44: Renovation vs. New build resi YoY growth over the cycle																														Figure 45: Renovation vs. New build resi 2007-10 % change
	15%																																													20%
	10%																																												Finland	20%
	10%
																																														15%
	5%																																													15%		change)
	5%																																															change)
	0%																																									Belgium				10%
	0%																																				Sweden									10%
	-5%																																				Sweden						Germany			5%		(%
																																											Germany			5%		(%
	-10%																																New Resi 2007-10 (% change)													Austria		10
																																	New Resi 2007-10 (% change)							-25%	-20%	-15%			-10%	-5%	0%	2007-
																															-45%				-40%		-35%	-30%		-25%	-20%	-15%			-10%	-5%	0%	2007-
	-15%																																				Norway									0%
	-20%																																		Italy		Norway		UK	France						-5%		Resi
																																			Italy				UK	France						-5%
	-25%		1995	1996	1997	1998	1999		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010		2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	2019E	2020E
	-25%
	1994																																				Netherlands									-10%		RMI
																																					Netherlands
								NEW BUILD RESI													RENOVATION RESI																									-15%
								NEW BUILD RESI													RENOVATION RESI
		Source: Deutsche Bank, Euroconstruct																														Source: Deutsche Bank, Euroconstruct
		Source: Deutsche Bank, Euroconstruct																														Source: Deutsche Bank, Euroconstruct


		Figure 46: New build Resi. Vs renovation Euroconstruct forecasts																														Figure 47: French existing house transactions vs. building permits
																															130
							2015-18 New						2015-18 Renovation							2018-20 New					2018-20 Renovation
							2015-18 New						2015-18 Renovation							2018-20 New					2018-20 Renovation
								build Resi							Resi						build Resi							Resi			125
		Austria							1.9%						0.9%							1.1%						1.9%			120
		Belgium							5.1%						2.2%							-1.1%						2.7%			115
		Denmark							9.3%						2.0%							6.0%						2.5%			115
		Denmark							9.3%						2.0%							6.0%						2.5%			110
		Finland							11.3%						1.7%							-5.9%						1.7%			110
		Finland							11.3%						1.7%							-5.9%						1.7%
		France							4.1%						0.9%							-3.6%						1.5%			105
		Germany							7.3%						0.2%							0.3%					-0.3%				100
		Italy							0.5%						1.8%							1.7%						1.1%			95
		Netherlands							11.1%						6.3%							4.7%						2.3%			95
		Netherlands							11.1%						6.3%							4.7%						2.3%			90
		Norway							8.7%						1.9%							-2.6%						1.5%
Deutsche																																		Jan-16	Mar-16 Apr-16		May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16	Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16		Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17	Apr-17		Sep-17 Oct-17		Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18	Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18	Jul-18	Aug-18

		Sweden							13.7%						-0.8%							-9.2%						0.6%
		UK							7.9%						3.3%							2.8%						1.9%							Feb16-						May17Jun17-	Jul17Aug17-
		Spain							12.4%						2.9%							6.0%						2.5%
		Switzerland							0.8%						0.8%							-1.0%					-1.3%									12m cumulated exising house transactions								12m cumulated building permits
																																				12m cumulated exising house transactions								12m cumulated building permits

Bank		Average							7.3%						1.9%							-0.1%						1.4%
Bank		Average SGO Mix							6.7%						1.4%							-1.8%						1.3%
		Average SGO Mix							6.7%						1.4%							-1.8%						1.3%
AG/London		Source: Deutsche Bank, Euroconstruct																														Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Datastream
AG/London

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Deutsche	Emerging Markets: More upside than downside potential
Deutsche	Improving demand growth proﬁle in 2019 in EM
Bank			■	Driven by a timid recovery in oil exporting countries (already initiated in 2018), we forecast an improvement of the cement demand in EM in 2019.
AG/London			■	We believe the recent decrease of oil price should not impact 2019, as we usually see a 1 year lag between oil price and cement demand evolution.
			■
			■	Our country by country bottom-up analysis suggests, cement demand should improve on LafargeHolcim EM footprint to more than 4%.
			■	This is signiﬁcantly higher than the levels seen in 2015-16 which were impacted by negative demand evolution in oil exporting countries.

		Figure 48: Cement demand vs. GDP growth in Emerging countries																			Figure 49: Cement demand growth on cement companies’ EM
																					footprints
						2013		2014		2015		2016		2017	2018E				2019E						2013		2014	2015		2016		2017	2018E			2019E
		Cement Oil exp				7.6%		2.6%		1.2%		-2.8%		-3.7%	0.0%		2.8%				Buzzi				-4.5%		3.1%	8.4%		2.5%		2.5%	1.5%	0.0%
		Cement Others				0.8%		4.5%		6.5%		3.5%		2.2%	3.6%		3.3%				Cemex				-2.0%		4.5%	8.4%		2.2%		1.7%	1.9%	1.4%
		Total Cement				1.9%		4.2%		5.7%		2.5%		1.3%	3.1%		3.2%				CRH				5.3%		6.4%	7.4%		1.0%		1.6%	4.9%	6.5%
		GDP Oil exp.				4.9%		4.2%		2.7%		1.8%		2.5%	2.9%		3.6%				Heidelberg				4.7%		3.2%	3.3%		2.6%		3.1%	4.2%	3.9%
		GDP others EM				3.9%		4.0%		4.6%		4.2%		4.2%	4.4%		4.5%				LafargeHolcim				5.1%		3.5%	3.8%		0.8%		0.9%	3.5%	4.1%
		Total GDP				4.1%		4.0%		4.3%		3.8%		3.9%	4.1%		4.4%				Titan Cement				0.1%		5.4%	1.5%		4.8%		-3.8%	-0.5%	0.9%

	Source:Deutsche Bank, IMF, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP																			Source:Deutsche Bank, Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP
	Source:Deutsche Bank, IMF, Factset, Bloomberg Finance LP																			Source:Deutsche Bank, Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP


		Figure 50: Cement demand growth vs. oil price in oil exporting																			Figure 51: Cement demand growth vs. coal price in Indonesia
		countries
	110																14%			140															20%
	100																12%			130															18%
	100																10%			120															16%
																	10%			120															16%
	90														Bloomberg		8%			110															14%
															Bloomberg		6%			100															12%
	80														consensus $60		6%			100															12%
	80														consensus $60		4%
	70																4%			90															10%
	70																2%			80															8%
																	2%			80															8%
	60																		0%	70															6%
	60																		0%	70															6%
	50																-2%			60															4%
																				60															4%
																	-4%			50															2%
																	-4%

	40																	-6%		40																0%
	40			2008			2011			2014					2018E	2019E		-6%		40																0%
	2007			2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014		2015	2016	2017	2018E	2019E				2007		2008		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	2019E
					Brent crude ($/bbl, lhs)						Cement demand growth oil exp. (%, rhs)												Coal Newcastle ($/t, lhs)						Cement demand growth in Indonesia
					Brent crude ($/bbl, lhs)						Cement demand growth oil exp. (%, rhs)												Coal Newcastle ($/t, lhs)						Cement demand growth in Indonesia
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP. Note: Brent crude 2019 price forecast as of 28 Nov.																			Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP
																				Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP

23 Page

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24Page	Capacity utilisation to improve on most companies’ EM footprints
24Page	■	Our bottom-up analysis of supply and demand on key EM countries suggest that capacity utilization on both LafargeHolcim and Heidelberg EM
		footprints should improve in 2019.
	■	Algeria capacity utilization should continue to decrease in 2019E - we see however more limited risks on prices after the 15-20% price adjustment
		LafargeHolcim did in 2018 to align again vs. competition (we believe LafargeHolcim was enjoying a strong price premium when market was sold out)

	Figure 52: Supply / Demand evolution in 2019E in Middle East Africa					Figure 53: Supply / Demand evolution in 2019E in Latin America
									Capacity utilization
			% demand growth	% capacity growth	Capacity utilization		% demand growth	% capacity growth	Capacity utilization
			% demand growth	% capacity growth	change (bps)		% demand growth	% capacity growth	change (bps)
					change (bps)				change (bps)
	Tanzania		7.0%	0.0%	560	Colombia	3.0%	0.0%	240
	Nigeria		6.0%	1.4%	365	Costa Rica	3.0%	0.0%	240
	Iraq		5.0%	2.4%	203	Brazil	3.0%	0.4%	209
	Morocco		0.0%	0.0%	0	Ecuador	1.0%	0.0%	80
	South Africa		0.0%	0.0%	0	Mexico	0.0%	1.2%	-97
	Kenya		6.0%	7.8%	-134	Argentina	-5.0%	0.0%	-400
	Egypt		4.0%	6.8%	-207
	Ghana		8.5%	11.5%	-215
	Algeria		-2.0%	19.0%	-1411

	Turkey		-25.0%	2.2%	-2130
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates					Source:Deutsche Bank estimates
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates					Source:Deutsche Bank estimates


	Figure 54: Supply / Demand evolution in 2019E in Asia Paciﬁc					Figure 55: Supply / Demand evolution in 2019E on companies’ EM
						footprint

			% demand growth	% capacity growth	Capacity utilization		% demand growth	% capacity growth	Capacity utilization
			% demand growth	% capacity growth	change (bps)		% demand growth	% capacity growth	change (bps)
					change (bps)				change (bps)
	India		8.5%	2.8%	441	Buzzi	0.0%	1.2%	-97
	Thailand		5.0%	0.0%	400	Cemex	1.4%	1.7%	-19
	Philippines		8.0%	5.3%	204	CRH	6.5%	3.8%	206
	Philippines		8.0%	5.3%	204	Heidelberg	3.9%	3.5%	36
	Indonesia		5.5%	3.0%	194	Heidelberg	3.9%	3.5%	36
	Indonesia		5.5%	3.0%	194	LafargeHolcim	4.1%	3.8%	20
	Malaysia		0.0%	0.0%	0	LafargeHolcim	4.1%	3.8%	20
	Malaysia		0.0%	0.0%	0	Titan Cement	0.9%	5.0%	-315
						Titan Cement	0.9%	5.0%	-315
	Bangladesh		6.5%	8.1%	-117
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates					Source:Deutsche Bank estimates
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates					Source:Deutsche Bank estimates
AG/London Bank Deutsche
AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	ROCE analysis for new project suggests LHN & HEI EM footprints are largely derisked.

Bank		■	After 6 years of Supply / Demand balance deterioration we believe LafargeHolcim and Heidelberg EM footprints should see an improvement in 2019.
Bank		■	This is due to both demand improvement on their respective footprints but also to the moderation of the supply reﬂecting more normalized prices /
		■
AG/London			margins conditions.

	13%
	Figure 56:ROCE for a new project on LafargeHolcim EM footprint												Figure 57:Supply / Demand evolution on LafargeHolcim EM footprint
	14%											8%
												7%
	12%
	11%											6%
	11%
	10%											5%
	9%											4%
												4%
	8%											3%
	7%											3%
	7%
	6%											2%
	6%
	5%											1%
	4%											0%
			2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	0%
			2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	2012		2013		2014	2015	2016	2017		2018E	2019E	2020E
												2012		2013		2014	2015	2016	2017		2018E	2019E	2020E
															YoY Demand growth %						YoY Supply growth %
															YoY Demand growth %						YoY Supply growth %
	Source:Deutsche Bank, Company data												Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source:Deutsche Bank, Company data												Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data


	Figure 58:ROCE for a new project on Heidelberg EM footprint												Figure 59:Supply / Demand evolution on Heidelberg EM footprint
	14%											14%
	14%											14%
	13%											12%
	12%											12%
	12%
	11%											10%
	10%											8%
												8%
	9%
	8%											6%
	7%											4%
												4%
	6%
	5%											2%
	4%											0%
			2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	0%			YoY Demand growth %					YoY Supply growth %
												2012		2013		2014	2015	2016	2017		2018E	2019E	2020E

	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data												Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data												Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

25 Page

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26 Page	More upside than downside on LafargeHolcim and Heidelberg EM footprints.
26 Page	■	Our analysis shows a clear deterioration of EM proﬁtabilties between 2014 and 2018. This is mainly due to aggressive pricing strategy from new
		entrants in a low demand growth environment.
	■	Since 2014, the number of ‘over-earning’ markets (where ROCE for a new project is > 10%) has decreased from 15 to 6.
	■	We see however limited risks on these six markets which enjoy currently high levels of prices / margins as no project from new entrant has been
		recorded in these countries.
	■	Conversely the number of ‘under-earning’ markets (ROCE for a new entrant < 5%) has increased from 1 to 12.
	■	Reﬂecting this, we believe that now both LafargeHolcim and Heidelberg EM footprints have more long-term upside than downside potential.

	Figure 60: ROCE for a new project in EM at 2014 economic conditions	Figure 61: ROCE for a new project in EM at 2018 economic conditions
	40%	25%
	35%	25%
	35%	20%
	30%	20%
	30%
	25%	15%
	25%
	20%	10%
	20%
	15%	5%
	15%
	10%	0%
	10%
	5%	-5%
	0%	-10%

Zambia

Colombia

Morocco

Algeria

Nigeria

Costa Rica

Ghana

Mexico

Kenya

Ecuador

Philippines

Tanzania

Indonesia

South Africa

Turkey

Brazil

Bangladesh

Lebanon

Egypt

Malaysia

Iraq

Thailand

India

Argentina

Morocco

Mexico

Ecuador

Nigeria

Costa Rica

Lebanon

Algeria

Kenya

Ghana

India

Argentina

Iraq

Philippines

Colombia

Bangladesh

Thailand

Indonesia

Zambia

Tanzania

South Africa

Turkey

Brazil

Egypt

Malaysia

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

	Figure 62: Share of LafargeHolcim sales by type of EM (2018 vs. 2014)						Figure 63: Share of Heidelberg sales by type of EM (2018 vs. 2014)
	100%		4%				100%
	90%				30%		90%
	80%				30%		80%
	80%						80%		40%
	70%		45%				70%				62%
	70%						70%				62%
	60%						60%
	50%				45%		50%
	50%						50%

	40%						40%
	40%						40%
Deutsche	30%		51%				30%		60%		25%
	20%		51%				20%				25%
	20%						20%
	10%				25%		10%				12%
							0%				12%
	0%						0%
Bank			2014		2018				2014		2018
			2014		2018
		Over-earning (ROCE > 10%)		Equilibrium (ROCE btw 5-10%)		Under-earning (ROCE <5%)		Over-earning (ROCE > 10%)		Equilibrium (ROCE btw 5-10%)		Under-earning (ROCE <5%)
AG/London		Over-earning (ROCE > 10%)		Equilibrium (ROCE btw 5-10%)		Under-earning (ROCE <5%)		Over-earning (ROCE > 10%)		Equilibrium (ROCE btw 5-10%)		Under-earning (ROCE <5%)
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data						Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data						Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

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Deutsche	Companies' exposure by region
Deutsche	■	Our historical analysis suggests that stocks with high renovation exposure in DM (Saint Gobain, Sika, Geberit) or high EM exposure have historically
	■
Bank		resisted better to a sharp downturn.
Bank		Conversely, Kingspan, CRH, Buzzi & Titan which have the highest exposure to new build in DM had in 2007-09 the lowest organic growth.
AG/London	■

	Figure 64: New-build in DM as % of Group Sales by company													Figure 65: 2007-09 organic sales growth by company
	Figure 64: New-build in DM as % of Group Sales by company													Figure 65: 2007-09 organic sales growth by company
	70%	62%											0%
	60%												-5%		-1%	-4%
													-10%			-4%
	50%		44%	41%									-10%				-9%
	40%			41%	37%								-15%				-9%
					37%
						31%												-13%
						31%	28%											-13%
	30%						28%	25%					-20%						-17%
	30%							25%	23%	22%			-20%							-19%	-19%
									23%	22%
	20%										15%		-25%									-22%
	20%												-25%									-22%

	10%											9%	-30%										-24%
	10%												-30%
	0%												-35%
	0%	Kingspan	CRH	Buzzi	Titan	Heidelberg	Geberit	GobainSaint	Cemex	LafargeHolcim	Tarkett	Sika	-35%		Sika	Geberit	LafargeHolcim	GobainSaint	Heidelberg	Cemex	Titan	Buzzi	CRH	Kingspan
													-40%											-34%
													-40%
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data													Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data													Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data


	Figure 66: Companies' sales by geography and end markets

							Buzzi		Cemex	CRH		Heidelberg	LafargeHolcim			Saint Gobain		Tarkett		Titan	Geberit	Kingspan		Sika

	North America New Build						19%		13%	25%		13%	11%			3%		8%		29%	1%		17%	3%
	North America Infra						13%		9%	19%		9%	8%			1%		0%		20%	0%		0%	6%
	North America Renovation						6%		4%	8%		4%	3%			5%		34%		9%	2%		2%	8%
	W Europe New Build						22%		9%	19%		19%	11%			22%		7%		8%	27%		45%	6%
	W Europe Infra						13%		5%	7%		11%	7%			5%		0%		5%	0%		0%	11%
	W Europe Renovation						10%		4%	16%		8%	5%			33%		26%		3%	54%		7%	15%
	Eastern Europe Construction						18%		8%	5%		8%	6%			4%		17%		16%	10%		18%	7%
	Emerging Markets Construction						0%		47%	2%		29%	50%			11%		8%		11%	6%		10%	33%
	Others (Industrial segments)						0%		0%	0%		0%	0%			17%		0%		0%	0%		0%	11%
	Total						100%		100%	100%		100%	100%			100%		100%		100%	100%		100%	100%
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data
	Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

27 Page

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28Page	LafargeHolcim EM exposure has historically smoothed cycle downturns


	Figure 67:Volumes growth evolution on companies' footprints over the cycle
	Buzzi																			Cemex																			CRH
	15%																			15%																			15%
	10%																			10%																			10%
	5%																			5%																			5%
	0%																			0%																			0%
	-5%																			-5%																			-5%
	-10%																			-10%																			-10%
	-15%																			-15%																			-15%
																				-15%																			-15%
	-20%																			-20%																			-20%
																				-20%																			-20%
	-25%																			-25%																			-25%
	2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
		3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth
		3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth

HeidelbergCement

15%

10%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%


2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
	3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth
	3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth

LafargeHolcim																			Titan
15%																			15%
10%																			10%
5%																			5%
0%																			0%
-5%																			-5%
-10%																			-10%
-15%																			-15%
-20%																			-20%
-25%																			-25%
-25%																			-25%
2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2001		2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
	3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth
	3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth								3y cumulative cement demand growth											YoY cement demand growth

Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data, Analysis based on markets historical volume growth on current companies' footprints

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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Deutsche	Price vs. costs to remain an issue in H1 19
Deutsche
Bank	■	While oil prices have recently decreased, we believe it is too early to call for cost inﬂation moderation and price vs. cost improvement as soon as
	■
AG/London		in H1 19.
AG/London	■	Oil is indeed a very limited portion of the costs structure for stocks in our sector as lightside products key raw materials include rather oil derivatives
	■
		which follow oil price evolution with at least a 4 to 6 months lag impact. We are also cautious that the exceptionally low level of the Rhine River could
		cause supply disruption and more expensive sourcing in Europe in H1 19.
	■	For heavyside stocks, we see energy cost inﬂation to remain high for most of H1 19 (c10%, in line with H2 18) as coal prices remain at an elevated
		level across the globe (in Europe, Asia and the US) and electricity prices in Europe have signiﬁcantly picked-up in Q3 18.
	■	With the timing of price increase usually in April in DM and the full impact only to be seen in Q3, we remain cautious that price vs. cost should remain
		an issue in H1 19 before a signiﬁcant improvement in H2 19.
	■	This drives our preference for LafargeHolcim (SG&A savings more than compensating potential margin squeeze) but also Sika (strong operational
		leverage and more ﬂexibility for price increase implementation) as well as Saint Gobain (strong pricing momentum as seen in Q3 18).

Figure 68: DB YoY margin improvement by company (bps)

	Key margin metric	Delta 2019 vs. 2018 (bps)	Delta 2019 vs. 2018 (bps) incl.	Comments
	Key margin metric	underlying	costs savings & one-offs	Comments
		underlying	costs savings & one-offs

Sika	EBIT	91	143	Gross margin improvement (+40bps) and op. leverage (+50bps). Saint Gobain one-off (-30bp) +
Sika	EBIT	91	143	dilutive impact of acquisition in 2018 (-20bps).
				dilutive impact of acquisition in 2018 (-20bps).
LafargeHolcim	Recurring EBITDA	-21	70	Conservatively assumes negative underlying margin evolution in spite of improved capacity
LafargeHolcim	Recurring EBITDA	-21	70	utilization in EM - +90bps expected from SG&A savings
				utilization in EM - +90bps expected from SG&A savings
Cemex	EBITDA	-16	73	Assuming $130m of savings in 2019E
Buzzi	Recurring EBITDA	17	62	2018 negatively impacted by one-offs in Italy and Germany (30bps) + synergies in Germany (+20bps)
CRH	EBITDA	11	26	Synergies bring +15bps on margin
Kingspan	EBITA	52	52	MDI price decrease should have positive impact on PIR cost inflation partly compensated by
Kingspan	EBITA	52	52	Kooltherm penetration rate slow-down
				Kooltherm penetration rate slow-down
Tarkett	EBITDA	21	43	Improved price vs. cost on lower oil-related costs + accretive impact of North America acquisition
Saint Gobain	EBIT	21	33	Assuming E50m of savings in 2019E
Geberit	EBITDA	22	22	Cost inflation to abate only in H2 19
Titan Cement	EBITDA	18	18	EBITDA margin improvement in the US but risks in Egypt
Heidelberg	EBITDA	-16	1	Margin squeeze to continue in H1 - improvement only from Q3

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company data

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30 Page	Reinﬂation of energy had an impact on operational leverage, esp. on the cyclical stocks
30 Page		■	After 3 years of cost deﬂation in 2014-16, the reinﬂation of energy and raw materials end of 2016 had a clearly visible negative impact on the sector's
			operational leverage.
		■	When we exclude the synergies / costs savings impact, we believe that cement stocks lﬂ EBITDA have been down in 2017-18 reﬂecting a negative
			price vs. cost environment
		■	Conversely, reﬂecting a better pricing power, structural growth stocks continued to grow in EBITDA in 2017-18 at however a slower pace vs. previous
			years

	Figure 69: Sales, EBITDA and margin evolution - Cement & Structural stocks
	Lfl EBITDA growth vs. lfl Sales growth on cement stocks													YoY EBITDA margin evolution vs. coal price														Lfl EBITDA growth vs. lfl Sales growth - structural growth stocks
	20%													2.0%													140	20%
	15%													1.5%													120	15%
														1.5%													120	15%
	10%													1.0%														10%
														1.0%													100	10%
																											100
	5%													0.5%														5%
														0.5%													80	5%
	0%													0.0%													80	0%
	0%
	-5%
																											60
																											60
	-10%													-0.5%														-5%
	-10%																										40
														-1.0%													40	-10%
	-15%													-1.0%														-10%
	-15%
	-20%													-1.5%													20	-15%
														-1.5%

	-25%													-2.0%													0	-20%
	2007		2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015		2016	2017	2018E		2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018E
				Cement lfl EBITDA growth						Cement lfl Sales growth					Cement EBITDA Margin evolution (lhs)								Newcastle Coal price (rhs)							lfl EBITDA growth (%)						lfl Sales growth (%)
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset, Company data
	Source:Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset, Company data

AG/London Bank Deutsche

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