gordeeva_o_g_praktikum_po_perevodu_ekonomicheskih_tekstov_s

Even now, the gap between cash flow and capital spending is close to a record, forcing companies to seek external funding at a difficult time. A record 83.6% of banks tightened their lending standards for loans to large and midsize companies early in the fourth quarter, a far more pervasive squeeze than in the past two recessions. In the credit markets, borrowing rates on the bonds of moderately risky, investmentgrade firms skyrocketed to 9.5% in late October.

Up till now, the business sector's relatively healthy balance sheet, conservative hiring and expansion in recent years, and well-managed inventories have helped the economy avoid a deep corporate retrenching. But major cutbacks are set to ripple through the economy in a recession that may hit harder than many forecasters had expected.

Глобализация

Материал из Википедии — свободной энциклопедии

Глобализация — процесс всемирной экономической, политической и культурной интеграция и унификация. Основным следствием этого является мировое разделение труда, миграция в м а с ш т а б а х в с е й п л а н е т ы к а п и т а л а , ч е л о в е ч е с к и х и производственных ресурсов, стандартизация законодательства, экономических и технологических процессов, а также сближение и слияние культур разных стран. Это объективный процесс, который носит системный характер, то есть охватывает все сферы жизни общества. Глобализация – это процесс, в результате которого мир становится более связанным и более зависимым от всех его субъектов. Происходит как увеличение количества общих для го сударств проблем, так и расширение числа и типов интегрирующихся субъектов.

Происхождение глобализации

Некоторые зачатки глобализации мы можем проследить уже в эпоху античности. В частности, Римская империя была одним из первых государств, которое утвердило свое господство над Средиземноморьем и привело к глубокому переплетению

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различных культур и появлению местного разделения труда в регионах Средиземноморья.

Истоки глобализации находятся в XVI и XVII веках, когда устойчивый экономический рост в Европе сочетался с успехами в мореплавании и географическими открытиями. В результате португальские и испанские торговцы распространились по всему миру и занялись колонизацией Америки. В XVII веке Голландская Ост-Индийская компания, торговавшая со многими азиатскими странами, стала первой подлинной межнациональной компанией. В XIX веке быстрая индустриализация привела к росту торговли и инвестиций между европейскими державами, их колониями и США. В этот период несправедливая торговля с развивающимися странами носила характер империалистической эксплуатации. В первой половине XX века процессы глобализации были прерваны двумя мировыми войнами и разделявшим их периодом экономического спада.

После Второй мировой войны глобализация возобновилась в ускоренном темпе. Ей способствовали улучшения в технологии, которые привели к быстрым морским, железнодорожным и воздушным перевозкам, а также доступности международной телефонной связи. Устранением барьеров для международной торговли с 1947 года занималось Генеральное Соглашение по Тарифам и Торговле (GATT) — серия соглашений между основными капиталистическими и развивающимися странами. В 1995 году 75 участников GATT образовали Всемирную торговую организацию (ВТО). С тех пор ещё 21 страна присоединилась к ВТО, и 28 стран, включая Россию, ведут переговоры о вступлении.

Имеются также крупные региональные зоны экономической интеграции. В 1992 году Европейский союз стал единым экономическим пространством после заключения Маастрихтских соглашений. Это пространство предусматривает отмену таможенных пошлин, свободное движения труда и капитала, а также единую денежную систему на основе евро. Менее тесная интеграция наблюдается между участниками Североамериканской зоны свободной торговли: США, Канадой и Мексикой. Большинство бывших республик СССР вступили после его распада в Содружество Независимых Государств, обеспечивающее элементы общего экономического пространства

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Глобализация в экономике

Для экономических аспектов глобализации характерны свободная торговля, свободное движение капитала, снижение налогов на прибыль предприятий, простота перемещения отраслей промышленности между различными государствами в интересах уменьшения издержек на труд и природные ресурсы, а также:

•Развитые и развивающиеся страны неуклонно сближаются по уровню зарплат, цен на товары и прибыльности предприятий;

•Растёт число и размер слияний компаний внутри стран

и н а т р а н с н а ц и о н а л ь н о м у р о в н е , к о т о р ы е сопровождаются радикальной реструктуризацией и уменьшением количества занятой рабочей силы;

•Тенденция к аутсорсингу непрофильной деятельности компаний специализированным компаниям. Особое значение имеет аутсорсинг из развитых стран в развивающиеся, который приводит к сокращению занятости в развитых странах и росту занятости и доходов в развивающихся странах;

•Быстрое распространение финансовой информации по всему миру благодаря Интернету, тенденция к большей открытости предприятий;

•Большое значение фондовых бирж и тех «финансовых инструментов», которыми они торгуют — акций предприятий и паевых фондов, товарных фьючерсов;

•Влияние немногих национальных валют через международную систему свободного валютного обмена на экономические процессы в самых разных странах;

•Увеличение потребительских кредитов как площадки для дальнейшего роста потребления. С другой стороны невозможность поддержания среднего жизненного уровня без привлечения кредитов;

•Мощный поток рекламы во всех средствах массовой информации, размывание чётких различий между информацией и рекламой;

•Растущее расслоение по доходам как в развитых, так и в развивающихся странах, на которое сильно влияет неравный доступ населения к образованию;

•Стирание национальной принадлежности продукции;

•Усиление роли транснациональных компаний.

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Exercise 9

Translate the following into Russian.

To surpass the U.S., to drive global growth, to give smb an edge, per capita income, bust, soft landing, in real terms, purchasing-power parity, spare capacity, resilience, commodity producer, a listed company, to offset the weakening.

UNIT X

MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES

Ex. 1 Translate into Russian.

1.With the recession taking a big bite out of tax receipts, Britain is expected to run a budget deficit of some 175 billion pounds sterling this year and next, amounting to some 12% of gross domestic product.

2.The upward momentum in oil prices is unlikely to be sustained. Indeed, given that the long-term real trend of oil prices is around $50, and most of the world economy is still in recession, prices are more likely to fall back to the $40-45 dollar level than increase beyond $55.

3.Ukraine has suffered the largest contraction as a result of the global slowdown, which hit its steel exports hard and crippled its financial system. The EBRD forecasts that the nation’s economy will shrink 14% this year and expand 3% in 2010 are broadly in line with IMF’s.

4.The steady recovery in production suggests there is probably enough momentum in both investment and consumer spending to keep GDP from sliding back into negative territory, said Enam Ahmed, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

5.The trade figures suggest that, at least through the third quarter, a rebound in global demand offset the damping effects of the strong euro.

6.With export orders rising and consumer confidence growing, the next two months could be surprisingly buoyant.

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7.As long as the Japanese currency stays around 95 yen against the dollar and 125 yen against the euro, which the company expects for this fiscal year, and government incentives to spur auto demand are introduced, Honda could meet its projection as higher sales volume will also help it to cut unit costs.

8.The global economy is in the grips of a deepening recession that isn’t likely to turn around until sometime next year, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

9.Advanced economies, which are expected to contract 3.8% this year and experience no growth in 2010, should also continue to pursue rate cuts and unconventional monetary measures to support demand and counter deflationary pressures, the fund said.

10.As the fastest-growing major economy, China has a key role to play in pulling the world out of the deepest slump it fell into last year.

11.With China now on track to easily surpass its target of 8% growth this year, the government’s stimulus plan looks to have achieved its goal of carrying the country through the worst of the global downturns.

12.There have been some signs of recovery in the U.K., with recent Bank of England lending surveys showing that companies are getting more access to credit and house price falls stabilizing.

13.This week, Britain’s largest retailer, Tesco, announced that it see the recession bottoming out.

A Recovery at Last

Last week report of 3.5% U.S. growth in the third quarter confirmed what stock and credit markets have been signaling for weeks: The recession finally ended during the summer. Investors promptly bid up stocks after some jittery days, and we join in the relief that the worst is over and the risks of a deflation have passed. The question going forward is whether this recovery from a deep and unusual recession can turn into a durable expansion.

We’ve been among the optimists expecting a recovery, and the GDP report reveals a normal upturn in the business cycle. The recession has been unusual because its deepest trough was triggered by a financial panic that induced something close to an investment panic. For all

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intents and purposes, the economy’s heart stopped pumping for several weeks, and so the contraction has been especially sharp and deep.

But the very depth of that fall should naturally lead to a turn back up, and that is what we are now seeing. Investors had been stripped to the bone and are now being rebuilt. After 14 – count ‘em, 14 – consecutive quarters of decline, real fixed residential housing investment rose and added substantially to third quarter GDP. Even business investment finally rose, albeit more slowly than will be needed to make an expansion spread and deepen. The economy’s natural healing powers

– its ability to wring out excesses and improve balance sheets – is working as it normally does.

Perhaps most striking has been the pace of consumer spending growth, though some of this seems to have been temporary and perhaps borrowed from the future. Consumers provided nearly two-thirds of the GDP increase, and auto sales alone represented roughly one percentage point. However, car sales soared in July and August due to the “cash for clunkers” program, only to crash in September after the program expired. Auto sales are unlikely to add as much pop in the coming months, barring a robust recovery in hiring and personal income.

The personal consumption share of GDP also rose to a modern high of 71% in the third quarter, while business investment came at a lowly 12.1% of GDP. Consumers can’t carry this expansion for long if the job market doesn’t recover. And the modest growth in business investment reveals how wary companies are about taking new risks or committing to big-dollar projects or new job creation in the current political and economic climate.

The irony is that the main obstacle to turning this recovery into a durable expansion is the very “stimulus” programs that were meant to ensure recovery. Washington’s Great Reflation – fiscal and monetary – eventually must be wound down and paid for, and those looming bills cloud the expansion outlook.

Whatever role the stimulus played in “saving or creating jobs” – and we don’t see evidence of much – there’s no doubt it busted the federal balance sheet. With a deficit of $1.4 trillion in 2009, and $9 trillion more predicted for the next decade, every business and investor in America can see a huge tax increase coming right at them. The uncertainty of the Washington policy outlook is a major dampener on investment plans.

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Trade upturn is the latest sign of a recovery

World trade, which plunged more sharply during the financial crisis than at any time since the Great Depression, is beginning to pick up, another sign that the global economy is healing.

Although the volume of trade remains well below pre-crisis levels, imports and exports appear to have touched bottom in the second quarter. Trade volumes had fallen even further than global growth. So signs of an upward turn in trade could spur production and encourage hiring in exporting economies that are still plagued by high unemployment.

The turnaround is tentative, though, and comes amid continuing concerns about rising protectionism and weak global demand.

In the U.S., the Commerce Department said Friday that the dollar value of exports, which surged in July, rose another 0.2% in August. That put exports at their highest level since December, but still 21% below year-ago levels. Lower oil imports reduced imports by 0.6%, narrowing the trade deficit to $ 30.7 billion after four months of widening.

The report came amid other optimistic signs, both for trade and for global growth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Friday that an increase in its index of leading economic indicators suggests major economies are beginning to recover. In Asia, China, Korea and Taiwan are reporting renewed growth in exports. Korea, for instance, said the value of its exports in September was up 11.1% from August, led by increase in semiconductors, autos and liquid crystal displays. And though Germany, the No.2 exporter after China, Friday posted a drop in exports in August, new foreign orders and other indicators point to an upward trend.

In the U.S., a declining dollar is giving exporters a boost. “The weak dollar has made it a whole lot easier,” says Randy Baerg, president of Warren & Baerg Manufacturing Inc. of Dinuba, Calif., which sells machines to grind biomass material into everything from horse feed to fuel. About two-thirds of the firm’s sales go to Europe and Asia, where customers are saving money due to the cheaper dollar. “It more than pays the ocean freight and whatever additional expenses they have,” Mr. Baerg says.

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Official tallies of global trade take months to compile, but available data point to a turn in global trade since the spring. Global Trade Information Services, a private Geneva outfit, estimates the value of global trade in the second quarter was $2.58 trillion, up from the first quarter trough of $2.41 trillion but far from the year-ago second quarter’s $3.85 trillion. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the volume of world trade this year will be 11.9% below year-ago levels, a collapse of the sort unseen since the Great Depression. It sees a modest 2.55 increase in 2010.

The Great Stabilisation

The recession was less calamitous than many feared. Its aftermath will be more dangerous than many expect

It has become known as the “Great Recession”, the year in which the global economy suffered its deepest slump since the second world war. But an equally apt name would be the “Great Stabilisation”. For 2009 was extraordinary not just for how output fell, but for how a catastrophe was averted.

Twelve months ago, the panic sown by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers had pushed financial markets close to collapse. Global economic activity, from industrial production to foreign trade, was falling faster than in the early 1930s. This time, though, the decline was stemmed within months. Big emerging economies accelerated first and fastest. China’s output, which stalled but never fell, was growing by an annualised rate of some 17% in the second quarter. By mid-year the world’s big, rich economies (with the exception of Britain and Spain) had started to expand again. Only a few laggards, such as Latvia and Ireland, are now likely still to be in recession.

There has been a lot of collateral damage. Average unemployment across the OECD is almost 9%. In America, where the recession began much earlier, the jobless rate has doubled to 10%. In some places years of progress in poverty reduction have been undone as the poorest have been hit by the double whammy of weak economies and still-high food prices. But thanks to the resilience of big, populous economies such as China, India and Indonesia, the emerging world overall fared no worse

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in this downturn than in the 1991 recession. For many people on the planet, the Great Recession was not all that great.

That outcome was not inevitable. It was the result of the biggest, broadest and fastest government response in history. Teetering banks were wrapped in a multi-trillion-dollar cocoon of public cash and guarantees. Central banks slashed interest rates; the big ones dramatically expanded their balance-sheets. Governments worldwide embraced fiscal stimulus with gusto. This extraordinary activism helped to stem panic, prop up the financial system and counter the collapse in private demand. Despite claims to the contrary, the Great Recession could have been a Depression without it.

Stable but frail

So much for the good news. The bad news is that today’s stability, however welcome, is worryingly fragile, both because global demand is still dependent on government support and because public largesse has papered over old problems while creating new sources of volatility. Property prices are still falling in more places than they are rising, and, as this week’s nationalisation of Austria’s Hypo Group shows, banking stresses still persist. Apparent signs of success, such as American megabanks repaying public capital early, make it easy to forget that the recovery still depends on government support. Strip out the temporary effects of firms’ restocking, and much of the rebound in global demand is thanks to the public purse, from the officially induced investment surge in China to stimulus-prompted spending in America. That is revving recovery in big emerging economies, while only staving off a relapse into recession in much of the rich world.

This divergence will persist. Demand in the rich world will remain weak, especially in countries with over-indebted households and broken banking systems. For all the talk of deleveraging, American households’ debt, relative to their income, is only slightly below its peak and some 30% above its level a decade ago. British and Spanish households have adjusted even less, so the odds of prolonged weakness in private spending are even greater. And as their public-debt burden rises, richworld governments will find it increasingly difficult to borrow still more to compensate. The contrast with better-run emerging economies will sharpen. Investors are already worried about Greece defaulting, but other members of the euro zone are also at risk. Even Britain and America could face sharply higher borrowing costs.

Big emerging economies face the opposite problem: the spectre of asset bubbles and other distortions as governments choose, or are forced,

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to keep financial conditions too loose for too long. China is a worry, thanks to the scale and composition of its stimulus. Liquidity is alarmingly abundant and the government’s refusal to allow the yuan to appreciate is hampering the economy’s shift towards consumption. But loose monetary policy in the rich world makes it hard for emerging economies to tighten even if they want to, since that would suck in even more speculative foreign capital.

Walking a fine line

Whether the world economy moves smoothly from the Great Stabilisation to a sustainable recovery depends on how well these divergent challenges are met. Some of the remedies are obvious. A stronger yuan would accelerate the rebalancing of China’s economy while reducing the pressure on other emerging markets. Credible plans for medium-term fiscal cuts would reduce the risk of rising long-term interest rates in the rich world. But there are genuine trade-offs. Fiscal tightening now could kill the rich world’s recovery. And the monetary stance that makes sense for America’s domestic economy will add to the problems facing the emerging world.

That is why policymakers face huge technical difficulties in getting the exit strategies right. Worse, they must do so against a darkening political backdrop. As Britain’s tax on bank bonuses shows, fiscal policy in the rich world risks being driven by rising public fury at bankers and bail-outs. In America the independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat from Congress. And the politics of high unemployment means trade spats are becoming a bigger risk, especially with China.

Add all this up, and what do you get? Pessimists expect all kinds of shocks in 2010, from sovereign-debt crises (a Greek default?) to reckless protectionism (American tariffs against China’s “unfair” currency, say). More likely is a plethora of lesser problems, from sudden surges in bond yields (Britain before the election), to short-sighted fiscal decisions (a financial-transactions tax) to strikes over pay cuts (British Airways is a portent). Small beer compared with the cataclysm of a year ago—but enough to temper the holiday cheer.

Ex. 2 Give Russian equivalents for the following.

Credit crunch, rebound, turnaround, to contract, to weather the crisis, resilience, trough, to bottom out, slump, leading economic indicators, to soar, to bust, consumer confidence.

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