Тема 31. Антикризисное управление.

Risk Management

Risk management often focuses on matters of insurance. However there are several other major considerations when assessing areas of risk in your business.

Crisis management is a relatively new field of management. Typically, proactive crisis management activities include forecasting potential crises and planning how to deal with them, for example, how to recover if your computer system completely fails. Hopefully, organizations have time and resources to complete a crisis management plan before they experience a crisis. Crisis management in the face of a current, real crisis includes identifying the real nature of a current crisis, intervening to minimize damage and recovering from the crisis. Crisis management often includes strong focus on public relations to recover any damage to public image and assure stakeholders that recovery is underway.

Text A. Homes with hedges

Applying modern finance to America’s biggest asset class

There are many ways to mange risk in America’s markets, but the country’s sophisticated web of financial products has a $21.6 trillion hole in it. That is how much wealth is tied up in residential property – far more than even the $15 trillion value of America’s publicly traded equities. And unlike investors in shares, bonds and many other assets, those with a stake in housing do not have an easy way to hedge the risks. However, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is planning to fill that gap.

In the next few weeks - the CME is likely to open trading in financial futures and options linked to American house prices. Investors who want to hedge the risk of residential property – or merely to speculate on the market’s direction – will be able to bet on a rise or drop in a house-price index, without having to buy or to sell bricks and mortar. With interest rates on the rise, prompting worries that the recent housing boom is about to give way to a downturn, the potential appeal of these new hedging products is easy to see.

Punters will be able to bet on price changes in ten cities from Boston to San Diego, as well on a national index that aggregates all ten. The indices will be part of the CME’s Alternative Investment Products group, which fosters derivatives linked to economically important trends and events not directly related to underlying securities or commodities. The group already has products based on the weather and economic data such as non-farm payrolls.

Creating a useful and reliable index of house prices is tricky, since no two homes are identical and the market is full of messy transactions. But a pair of economists, Karl Case and Robert Shiller, have spent more than a decade sorting out many of problems, and for several years have published proprietary indices that highlights trends in the market. (Mr Shiller, a tauricidal academic who has spent much of his career slaying bulls and their foaming theories, has a special interest in tracking American house prices, which he has claimed are ripe for a fall.) The Case-Shiller indices have now been tweaked a bit to create a version suitable for trading.

Because the new derivatives will allow bets up to only a year ahead, home-owners will not be able to use them to hedge long-term risks. That limits their usefulness for ordinary folk. For many companies in the property industry, however, they should be helpful. A property developer or subcontractor, for example, can start a housing project without worrying whether prices will fall sharply by the time it is completed. Monica Piazessi, an economist at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, says that half the volatility in the price of individual homes is linked to city0wide changes in prices. So the CME’s new city indices could go a long way towards lowering the risks.

Financial firms such as mortgage lenders will also no doubt find uses for the new derivatives. And so will investors with a view about America’s residential property market – whether they expect a continued boom, or a bust. (“The Economist” April, 2006)

Text B. Handling a disaster.

Moments that build or destroy reputations

When Swissair’s flight 111 plunged into the sea of Nova Scotia, the tragedy bore several similarities to the loss of trans World Airlines’ flight 800 two years earlier.

Both jets crashed off the North American coast soon after leaving New York. Both were bound for Europe. Neither accident left any survivors. Neither has been fully explained. But the two disasters provoked sharply differing reactions. In the first TWA was accused of incompetence and insensitivity for the way it responded to the needs of the victims’ families. In the second, Swissair earned praise for its efficiency and compassion.

For TWA, the result has been lasting damage to its reputation. In contrast, Swissair’s handling of the flight 111 crash has left confidence in the airline intact, and may even, conceivably, have enhanced it.

Richard George, director of Public relations for the Public Relations Society of America, says a crash is “ a defining moment” for an airline. “In a matter of seconds, a reputation that has been built up over decades can be destroyed by making a mistake at that time”, he says.

So what lessons in crisis management emerge from the differing outcomes of the TWA and Swissair crashes?

Gary Abe, Deputy Director of the National Transportation safety Board’s office of the family affairs, says the speed of an airline’s response is one of the most important factors in determining how its bahaviour is perceived.

“The first 24 hours following a disaster are critical for the airline involved. That is probably the only opportunity to build a trusting relationship with the family members”, he says.

TWA drew fury after the crash of flight 800 by refusing to produce a passenger list until it had determined exactly who was on the aircraft and notified their families – a process that took almost full day.

Family members also complained that calls made to special toll-free telephone numbers went unanswered, that the flow of information was inadequate, and that insufficient attention was paid to their accommodation needs.

Soon, politicians such as Rudolph Guiliani, New York’s Mayor, started lambasting the airline for its handling the disaster; the news headlines became critical; and TWA found itself portrayed as the company that could do nothing right.

Swissair’s experience could hardly have been more different. Within hours of the loss of flight 111, a passenger manifest had been issued, fully-functioning hotlines had been set up, and hundreds of crisis counselors had arrived in New York, ready to receive the grieving families. Soon afterwards, flights to the crash site at Peggy’s Cove were being planned.

friends and relatives were grateful for the way Swissair kept them informed of unfolding events, and appreciated the airline’s offer of $20,000 (about ₤12,000) for each family to cover immediate expenses. Mr Guiliani praised the airline, and favourable headlines flowed.

One factor that worked in Swissair’s favour was legislation passed by Congress requiring airlines to be much more responsive to the needs of victims’ families after crashes. The Aviation Disaster Family Assistance Act – passed after a series of air crashes – required domestic carriers to file detailed plans for providing accurate passenger manifests, issuing toll-free telephone numbers, returning victims’ personal effects and helping families with their travel and personal needs.

“That forced the airlines to have a good, effective manifest procedure”, says Mr Abe. “Some of them didn’t do that in the past. They just didn’t care about their manifests, so they never really knew who was on the plane”. That legislation was not in the place before TWA’s flight 800 went down.

Swissair also benefited immeasurably from its code-sharing agreement with Delta Air Lines, the third biggest US carrier, under which the two sell seats on each other’s flights as if they were their own.

Under that agreement, Delta treated the loss of flight 111 as if it had been the loss of Delta aircraft, and deployed the full weight of its resources in the crisis management effort. At times, the hundreds of Delta care-givers in New York and Peggy’s Cove outnumbered the victims’ relatives and friends. In contrast, TWA – twice bankrupt, and now a relatively small carrier - was on its own.

One obvious lesson from these disasters, as from any others, is that companies should rehearse for the worst, and rehearse often. A less obvious moral may be that no expense should be spared in helping the victims’ families – if not out of compassion, then out of respect for the bottom line.

(From the Financial Times)

Лексический минимум по теме «Бухгалтерский учет»

A

Accounting	бухгалтерский учет
Accounting assumptions	бухгалтерские предпосылки
Accounting period	отчетный период
Accounting equation	балансовое уравнение
Accounting records	учетная документация
Accounts payable	кредиторская задолженность
Accounts receivable	дебиторская задолженность
Accrual basis of accounting	учет на основе принципа начислений
Accrued expenses	начисленные расходы
Accrued liabilities	начисленная кредиторская задолженность
Accrued revenue	начисленный доход
Adjusted trial balance	трансформированный пробный баланс
Adjusting entries	корректирующие (трансформационные проводки)
Allocation of costs	отнесение/распределение затрат
Amortisation	амортизация нематериальных активов

B

Bad debts	безнадежные долги
Bad debts Expense account	счет «Расходы по безнадежным долгам»
Book value	учетная /балансовая стоимость

C

Capital	капитал/ доля владельца или собственника
Capital employed	используемый капитал – сумма собственного капитала и долгосрочной задолженности
Capital expenditure	расходы по капитальным вложениям
Capital investments	капитальные вложения – инвестиции в долгосрочные внеоборотные активы
Capital stock	акционерный капитал
Cash	денежные средства
Cash at bank	деньги в банке
Cash in hand	наличные деньги
Cash in transit	денежные средства в пути
Cash book	кассовая книга
Cash inflow	поступление денежных средств
Cash outflow	выплата денежных средств
Cash Flow Statement	отчет о движении денежных средств
Chart of accounts	план счетов
Collection	инкассо, инкассация
Collection of a note	погашение векселя
Consolidated Balance Sheet	консолидированный Баланс группы компаний
Controller/comptroller	главный бухгалтер
Cost of sales	себестоимость реализации
Costs	расходы, затраты, издержки
Current assets/liabilities	оборотные средства/краткосрочная кредиторская задолженность

D

Deferred revenues	доходы будущих периодов
Deferred Income Tax	счет «Отсроченный налог на прибыль»
Depreciation	износ, снижение с течением времени стоимости материальных активов
Direct costing	калькуляция себестоимости по переменным затратам
Direct cost	прямые затраты – производственные затраты, которые можно непосредственно отнести на себестоимость готовых изделий и услуг
Disclosure	представление финансовой отчетности
Distribution costs	расходы по реализации

E

Earned income	доход от основной деятельности
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT)	прибыль до уплаты процентов и налогообложения
Entry	проводка
Expenditure	расход – платеж или возникновение задолженности
Expenses	расходы, издержки, затраты

F

Finance lease	капитализируемая аренда
Financial accounting	финансовый анализ
First in first out (FIFO) method	метод оценки запасов по ценам последних покупок
Fixed assets	долгосрочные (внеоборотные) активы
Fixed costs	постоянные (производственные) затраты
Franchise	право использования торговой марки, за которое платится вознаграждение

G

Gearing (leverage)	платежеспособность (леверидж) – соотношение между источниками заемных и собственных средств
General ledger (G/L)	Главная книга
Goodwill (GW)	«гудвилл» - разница между ценой, уплаченной за компанию, и справедливой стоимостью ее активов за вычетом кредиторской задолженности
Gross margin (GM)/gross profit (GP)	валовая прибыль

I

Imputed income tax единый налог на вмененный доход

Income Statement (I/S) Отчет о прибылях и убытках

Income tax походный налог

Incurred expenses понесенные расходы

Indirect costs косвенные расходы

Inflation инфляция

Intangible assets нематериальные активы

Interim period промежуточный отчетный период

Invoice счет-фактура, товарно-транспортная накладная

L

Labour costs – затраты на оплату труда

Last in first out (LIFO) method – метод оценки запасов по ценам первых покупок (ЛИФО)

Lease accounting – учет аренды

Liabilities – кредиторская задолженность

Liquidity ratios – коэффициенты ликвидности

Long-term assets – долгосрочные (внеоборотные) активы

Long-term liabilities – долгосрочная кредиторская задолженность

Low-value items (LVI’s) – малоценные и быстроизнашивающиеся предметы (МБП)

M

Machinery and Equipment account – счет «Машины и оборудование»

Management accounting - управленческий учет

Manufacturing costs – производственные затраты

Margin – коэффициент доходности, рассчитываемый как отношение валовой прибыли (gross margin) к реализации (sales)

Marginal cost – добавочная себестоимость производства дополнительной единицы продукции

Marginal costing – калькуляция себестоимости по переменным затратам (variable costs)

Material errors – существенные ошибки

Maturity date (value) – дата погашения векселя сумма

Maturity value – сумма погашения векселя

Monetary assets – денежные средства

Movement – оборот

N

Net income – чистая прибыль

Net income per share – чистая прибыль на акцию

Nonmonetary assets – неденежные средства/активы

Non-for-profit organizations – бюджетные организации

O

Obsolescence – устаревание, моральный износ

Office Equipment account – счет «Оборудование для офиса»

Office Supplies account – счет «Канцелярские товары»

Opening balance – начальное сальдо

Operating activities - основная деятельность

Operating costs – операционные расходы

Operating profit/loss – прибыль/убыток от основной деятельности

P

Par value – номинальная стоимость

Past-due accounts – просроченная задолженность

Pay as you earn (PAYE) – уплата налогов при начислении заработной платы

Payback period (PP) – период окупаемости капитала

Payroll liabilities - кредиторская задолженность по заработной плате

Period costs/expenses – расходы отчетного периода

Perpetual inventory method –метод текущей инвентаризации

Petty cash book – кассовая книга

Petty cash fund – фонд подотчетных сумм

Physical deterioration – физический износ; порча

Plant and Equipment account – счет «Производственные средства»

Post balance sheet events (PBSE) – послебалансовые события

Posting – разноска хозяйственных операций по счетам бухгалтерского учета

Prepaid expenses – расходы, оплаченные авансом, расходы будущих периодов

Product costing – калькуляция себестоимости готовой продукции и оказанных услуг

Profit – прибыль

Profit margin – рентабельность

Profit on ordinary activities – прибыль от основной деятельности

Provisions – резервы

Proxy – доверенностьr

R

Raw materials/Inventory account – счет «Сырье», «Материалы»

Receivables - дебиторская задолженность

Recognition – определение момента совершения сделки

Remuneration – вознаграждение, оплата за оказанные услуги

Research and Development costs (R&D) – расходы на научные исследования и разработки

Retained earnings – нераспределенная прибыль

Return inwards – покупательский возврат

Return outwards - возврат поставщику

Revenues from sales –выручка от реализации

S

Sales – реализация

Sales tax – налог с продажи

Salvage value – ликвидационная стоимость

Semi-variable costs – условно-переменные затраты

Short-term assets – краткосрочные оборотные средства

Short-term liquid assets – ликвидные активы

Short-term liabilities – краткосрочная кредиторская задолженность

Source documents – первичные документы

Statement of cash flow – отчет о движении денежных средств

Statement of owners’ equity – отчет о движении собственного капитала

Statement of retained earnings – отчет о реинвестированной прибыли

Statement of stockholders’ equity – отчет о движении акционерного капитала

Stocks – товарно-материальные запасы

Stock option plan – опцион – право сотрудников на льготное приобретение акций своей компании

Stock turnover – коэффициент оборачиваемости материальных запасов

Stocktaking - поведение инвентаризации

T

T account – схема счета, «самолетик»

Tangible assets – материальные активы

Time value of money (TVM) – стоимость денег с учетом доходов будущих периодов

Transaction – хозяйственная операция

Trial balance – пробный Баланс

Turnover – товарооборот

U

Uncollectible accounts – безнадежные долги

Unit cost – себестоимость изделия

Useful economic life – срок эксплуатации активов

V

Value added tax (VAT) – налог на добавленную стоимость (НДС)

Variable costing – калькуляция себестоимости по переменным затратам

Variable (manufacturing) costs – переменные (производственные) затраты

W

Wages – заработная плата, как правило почасовая или сдельная. Противоположным является SALARY - оклад

Working capital (WC) – собственные оборотные средства

Write off - списание

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