Пункт 2

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2_1.STA [ 21 cases with 21 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: I

MULTIPLE R= ,99762785 RІ= ,99526132 Adjusted RІ= ,99368176

REGRESS. F(5,15)=630,09 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,16839

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(15)	p-level
G	-5,83482	,206645	-1,07759	,038164	-28,2360	,000000
T	1,84278	,650900	,21419	,075656	2,8311	,012640
W2	-2,13573	,619494	-,66464	,192787	-3,4475	,003590
K_1	3,06734	,700143	,06949	,015862	4,3810	,000537
X_1	3,78465	,663788	,15803	,027717	5,7016	,000042

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: I (dz2_1.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	89,33466	5	17,86693	630,0874	,000000
Residual	,42534	15	,02836
Total	89,76000

t_табл(15)=2,13

F_табл(0,05;5;15)=2,9

Приложение №9

Пункт 1

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2_1.STA [ 21 cases with 21 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1

MULTIPLE R= ,99978830 RІ= ,99957665 Adjusted RІ= ,99934869

REGRESS. F(7,13)=4384,9 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,44309

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(13)		p-level
TIME	-,090836	,032655	-,13165	,047328	-2,78170	значим	,015565
G	-,074674	,067189	-,11302	,101694	-1,11140	не значим	,286529
T	-,097487	,226499	-,09286	,215758	-,43041	не значим	,673947
W2	-,699272	,236201	-1,78345	,602413	-2,96050	значим	,011047
P_1	-,543667	,130849	-,58670	,141206	-4,15492	значим	,001131
K_1	,452404	,263633	,08400	,048948	1,71604	не значим	,109873
X_1	2,044517	,279539	,69964	,095659	7,31388	значим	,000006

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: W1 (dz2_1.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	6026,198	7	860,8854	4384,939	,000000
Residual	2,552	13	,1963
Total	6028,750

t_табл(13)=2,16

F_табл(0,05;7;13)=2,84

Пункт 2

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2_1.STA [ 21 cases with 21 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1

MULTIPLE R= ,99971901 RІ= ,99943810 Adjusted RІ= ,99929763

REGRESS. F(4,16)=7114,7 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,46013

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(16)	p-level
TIME	-,124428	,029031	-,18034	,042076	-4,28607	,000567
W2	-,493820	,172533	-1,25945	,440033	-2,86218	,011293
P_1	-,462234	,117495	-,49882	,126795	-3,93407	,001186
X_1	2,069629	,229800	,70823	,078638	9,00621	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: W1 (dz2_1.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	6025,362	4	1506,341	7114,720	,000000
Residual	3,388	16	,212
Total	6028,750

t_табл(16)=2,12

F_табл(0,05;4;16)=3,01

Приложение №10

№	C	I	W1		X	K	P		T	G	W2
1	27,90	4,10	10,30		37,20	77,70	13,30		13,6	5,2	5,6
2	30,66	1,53	12,42		40,77	79,23	13,64		14,7	8,575	5,5
3	31,24	4,66	14,19		41,80	83,89	12,91		14,7	5,9	5,7
4	33,81	1,82	15,42		45,00	85,71	13,37		16,2	9,375	5,9
5	35,74	4,53	16,56		47,85	90,24	14,39		16,9	7,575	6,2
6	37,29	0,51	17,69		49,65	90,75	14,96		17	11,85	6,5
7	37,23	0,61	17,43		49,58	91,36	14,95		17,2	11,75	6,8
8	37,73	1,23	17,58		50,30	92,59	15,22		17,5	11,33	6,8
9	38,53	1,63	17,76		51,36	94,22	15,50		18,1	11,2	6,8
10	38,99	0,69	17,83		51,92	94,92	15,58		18,5	12,23	7,1
11	39,42	1,04	17,93		52,50	95,95	15,67		18,9	12,05	7,2
12	39,92	1,42	18,24		53,22	97,37	16,18		18,8	11,88	7,2
13	39,96	1,17	18,26		53,26	98,54	16,90		18,1	12,13	7,1
14	40,98	0,93	17,88		54,59	99,47	18,11		18,6	12,68	7
15	41,50	1,12	18,25		55,30	100,59	18,55		18,5	12,68	6,9
16	42,21	1,04	18,12		56,25	101,63	19,04		19,1	13	7,1
17	43,97	2,64	18,80		58,71	104,28	19,51		20,4	12,1	7,2
18	45,41	1,49	19,74		60,59	105,77	20,24		20,6	13,68	7,3
19	46,26	0,35	19,57		61,60	106,12	20,22		21,8	14,98	7,5
20	46,34	1,81	19,67		61,83	107,93	19,56		22,6	13,68	8,1

Приложение №11

(2МНК для С)

Пункт 1

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: 2MNK.STA [ 20 cases with 17 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99109758 RІ= ,98227441 Adjusted RІ= ,98018905

REGRESS. F(2,17)=471,03 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,72459

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(17)	p-level
Intercpt			-1,09859	1,327561	-,82752	,419406
P_1$	,424290	,051582	,90128	,109571	8,22547	,000000
W1$_W2	,623973	,051582	1,05775	,087441	12,09662	,000000

t_табл(17)=2,11

Пункт 2

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99984781 RІ= ,99969565 Adjusted RІ= ,99966184

REGRESS. F(2,18)=29562, p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,71822

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(18)	p-level
P_1$	,371355	,044978	,892533	,108102	8,25642	,000000
W1$_W2	,629471	,044978	1,018440	,072771	13,99517	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: C (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	30499,17	2	15249,58	29562,46	,000000
Residual	9,29	18	,52
Total	30508,45

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	1,440321	,277402

t_табл(18)=2,10

F_табл(0,05;2;18)=3,55

Приложение №12

(2МНК для I)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: 2MNK.STA [ 20 cases with 17 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: I (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,53131320 RІ= ,28229371 Adjusted RІ= ,24242114

REGRESS. F(1,18)=7,0799 p<,01592 Std.Error of estimate: 1,1168

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(18)	p-level
Intercpt			8,861326	2,699228	3,28291	,004134
K_1$	-,531313	,199681	-,076565	,028775	-2,66081	,015921

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: I (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	8,82958	1	8,829583	7,079897	,015921
Residual	22,44842	18	1,247134
Total	31,27800

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	1,609276	-,258169

t_табл(18)=2,1

F_табл(0,05;1;18)=4,41

Приложение №13

(2МНК для W1)

Пункт 1

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: 2MNK.STA [ 20 cases with 17 variables ]

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1 (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,92089312 RІ= ,84804413 Adjusted RІ= ,83960214

REGRESS. F(1,18)=100,46 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,92624

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(18)	p-level
Intercpt			2,025278	1,529612	1,32405	,202056
X_1$	,920893	,091880	,301193	,030051	10,02275	,000000

t_табл(18)=2,1

Пункт 2

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1 (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99859353 RІ= ,99718903 Adjusted RІ= ,99704109

REGRESS. F(1,19)=6740,2 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,94442

N=20	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(19)	p-level
X_1$	,998594	,012163	,340616	,004149	82,09897	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: W1 (2mnk.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	6011,803	1	6011,803	6740,240	,000000
Residual	16,947	19	,892
Total	6028,750

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	,589470	,549816

t_табл(19)=2,09

F_табл(0,05;1;19)=4,38

Приложение №14

№	C	I	W1		X	K	P		T	G	W2
1	27,90	4,10	10,30		37,20	77,70	13,30		13,6	5,2	5,6
2	30,13	2,91	12,67		41,61	80,61	14,24		14,7	8,575	5,5
3	32,43	2,80	13,89		41,12	83,41	12,54		14,7	5,9	5,7
4	33,24	2,44	14,24		45,06	85,85	14,62		16,2	9,375	5,9
5	35,12	2,30	15,33		45,00	88,14	12,77		16,9	7,575	6,2
6	37,48	1,95	16,30		51,28	90,10	17,98		17	11,85	6,5
7	38,03	1,91	16,91		51,69	92,01	17,58		17,2	11,75	6,8
8	38,18	1,87	16,89		51,37	93,88	16,98		17,5	11,33	6,8
9	38,60	1,77	17,13		51,57	95,65	16,34		18,1	11,2	6,8
10	39,23	1,65	17,49		53,10	97,29	17,11		18,5	12,23	7,1
11	39,50	1,59	17,68		53,15	98,89	16,56		18,9	12,05	7,2
12	39,89	1,51	17,88		53,29	100,40	16,61		18,8	11,88	7,2
13	40,26	1,41	18,13		53,80	101,81	17,57		18,1	12,13	7,1
14	40,42	1,32	18,14		54,42	103,13	17,68		18,6	12,68	7
15	41,78	1,25	18,59		55,70	104,37	18,61		18,5	12,68	6,9
16	42,24	1,16	18,84		56,40	105,53	18,46		19,1	13	7,1
17	43,47	1,08	19,16		56,65	106,61	17,09		20,4	12,1	7,2
18	44,96	0,88	20,00		59,52	107,49	18,92		20,6	13,68	7,3
19	45,64	0,76	20,64		61,38	108,25	18,95		21,8	14,98	7,5
20	46,33	0,74	20,98		60,75	108,99	17,17		22,6	13,68	8,1
21	44,64	0,52	20,69		59,63	109,50	16,14		22,8	14,5	8,1
22	43,50	0,48	20,31		58,66	109,98	14,93		23,4	14,7	8,3
23	42,26	0,44	19,98		57,59	110,42	13,53		24,1	14,9	8,4
Кт =	0,121	0,694	0,043		0,109	0,011	0,325		0,018	0,017	0,106

Приложение №15

STATISTICA: Basic Statistics and Tables

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 19 variables ]

STAT. T-test for Independent Samples (dz2.sta)

BASIC Note: Variables were treated as independent samples

STATS

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Mean Group 1	Mean Group 2	t-value	df	p
T1 vs. T2	16,84167*	20,99091*	-4,93325*	21*	,000070*

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Valid N Group 1	Valid N Group 2	Std.Dev. Group 1	Std.Dev. Group 2	F-ratio variancs	p variancs
T1 vs. T2	12*	11*	1,734389*	2,284055*	1,734284*	,379663

t_табл(21)=2,08

F_табл(0,05;10;11)=2,86

STAT. T-test for Independent Samples (dz2.sta)

BASIC Note: Variables were treated as independent samples

STATS

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Mean Group 1	Mean Group 2	t-value	df	p
G1 vs. G2	7,325*	12,88222*	-7,85876*	21*	,000000*

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Valid N Group 1	Valid N Group 2	Std.Dev. Group 1	Std.Dev. Group 2	F-ratio variancs	p variancs
G1 vs. G2	5*	18*	1,758817*	1,299699*	1,831283*	,338675*

t_табл(21)=2,08

F_табл(0,05;4;17)=2,96

STAT. T-test for Independent Samples (dz2.sta)

BASIC Note: Variables were treated as independent samples

STATS

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Mean Group 1	Mean Group 2	t-value	df	p
W2_1 vs. W2_2	6,587500*	8,228571*	-5,04700*	21*	,000054*

Group 1 vs. Group 2	Valid N Group 1	Valid N Group 2	Std.Dev. Group 1	Std.Dev. Group 2	F-ratio variancs	p variancs
W2_1 vs. W2_2	16*	7*	,606493*	,939351*	2,398861*	,158608*

t_табл(21)=2,08

F_табл(0,05;6;15)=2,79

Приложение №16 (тренды для Т)

Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 14,2389 0,337892 42,1405 0,0000

Slope 0,366767 0,0282067 13,0028 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 89,4545 1 89,4545 169,07 0,0000

Residual 9,52355 18 0,529086

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 98,978 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,950674

R-squared = 90,3781 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,727383

Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 2,67157 0,0198571 134,54 0,0000

Slope 0,0205759 0,00165764 12,4128 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,281539 1 0,281539 154,08 0,0000

Residual 0,0328907 18 0,00182726

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,31443 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,946254

R-squared = 89,5396 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0427464

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,0684374 0,00125955 54,3348 0,0000

Slope -0,00116976 0,000105145 -11,1252 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,000909944 1 0,000909944 123,77 0,0000

Residual 0,000132334 180,00000735192

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00104228 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,934363

R-squared = 87,3033 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00271144

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-X model: Y = a + b/X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 19,4945 0,438352 44,4722 0,0000

Slope -7,80778 1,55167 -5,03185 0,0001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 57,8509 1 57,8509 25,32 0,0001

Residual 41,1271 18 2,28484

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 98,978 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,764515

R-squared = 58,4483 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 1,51157

Regression Analysis - Double reciprocal model: Y = 1/(a + b/X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,0511 0,0011699 43,6791 0,0000

Slope 0,0281004 0,00414118 6,78559 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,00074934 1 0,00074934 46,04 0,0000

Residual 0,000292938 18 0,0000162743

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00104228 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,847906

R-squared = 71,8944 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00403415

Regression Analysis - Logarithmic-X model: Y = a + b*ln(X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 12,5798 0,561458 22,4056 0,0000

Slope 2,60311 0,248417 10,4788 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 85,038 1 85,038 109,80 0,0000

Residual 13,94 18 0,774446

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 98,978 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,926909

R-squared = 85,916 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,880026

Regression Analysis - Multiplicative model: Y = a*X^b

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 2,56936 0,0263728 97,4248 0,0000

Slope 0,150347 0,0116687 12,8847 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: intercept = ln(a)

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,283673 1 0,283673 166,02 0,0000

Residual 0,0307569 18 0,00170871

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,31443 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,949833

R-squared = 90,2182 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0413366

Regression Analysis - Square root-Y model: Y = (a + b*X)^2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 3,78975 0,0404927 93,591 0,0000

Slope 0,0433639 0,00338027 12,8285 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 1,25048 1 1,25048 164,57 0,0000

Residual 0,136772 18 0,00759842

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 1,38726 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,949425

R-squared = 90,1409 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0871689

	Модель тренда
	y=a+b*t	y=exp(a+b*t)	y=1/(a+b*t)	y=a+b/t	y=1/(a+b/t)	y=a+b*ln(t)	y=a*t^b	y=(a+b*t)^2
	14,61	14,76	14,87	11,69	12,63	12,58	13,06	14,69
	14,97	15,07	15,13	15,59	15,35	14,38	14,49	15,03
	15,34	15,38	15,40	16,89	16,54	15,44	15,40	15,37
	15,71	15,70	15,68	17,54	17,20	16,19	16,08	15,71
	16,07	16,03	15,98	17,93	17,63	16,77	16,63	16,05
	16,44	16,36	16,28	18,19	17,93	17,24	17,09	16,40
	16,81	16,70	16,60	18,38	18,14	17,65	17,50	16,76
	17,17	17,05	16,93	18,52	18,31	17,99	17,85	17,11
	17,54	17,40	17,27	18,63	18,44	18,30	18,17	17,47
	17,91	17,77	17,62	18,71	18,55	18,57	18,46	17,84
	18,27	18,14	18,00	18,78	18,64	18,82	18,73	18,21
	18,64	18,51	18,38	18,84	18,71	19,05	18,97	18,58
	19,01	18,90	18,79	18,89	18,78	19,26	19,20	18,95
	19,37	19,29	19,21	18,94	18,83	19,45	19,42	19,33
	19,74	19,69	19,65	18,97	18,88	19,63	19,62	19,72
	20,11	20,10	20,11	19,01	18,92	19,80	19,81	20,10
	20,47	20,52	20,60	19,04	18,96	19,95	19,99	20,49
	20,84	20,95	21,11	19,06	18,99	20,10	20,16	20,89
	21,21	21,38	21,64	19,08	19,02	20,24	20,33	21,29
	21,57	21,83	22,20	19,10	19,05	20,38	20,49	21,69
	21,94	22,28	22,79	19,12	19,07	20,51	20,64	22,09
	22,31	22,74	23,42	19,14	19,09	20,63	20,78	22,50
	22,67	23,22	24,08	19,16	19,11	20,74	20,92	22,92
R^2 =	90,4	89,5	87,3	58,4	71,9	85,9	90,2	90,1
Kт =	0,064	0,045	0,018	0,196	0,198	0,134	0,128	0,056

Приложение №17 (тренд для G)

Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 7,23189 0,616649 11,7277 0,0000

Slope 0,377177 0,0514768 7,32712 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 94,6044 1 94,6044 53,69 0,0000

Residual 31,7189 18 1,76216

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 126,323 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,865394

R-squared = 74,8907 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 1,32746

Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 1,97712 0,0768837 25,7158 0,0000

Slope 0,0386319 0,00641812 6,01919 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,992462 1 0,992462 36,23 0,0000

Residual 0,493072 18 0,0273929

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 1,48553 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,817364

R-squared = 66,8084 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,165508

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,140604 0,0102432 13,7266 0,0000

Slope -0,0042206 0,000855086 -4,93588 0,0001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,011846 1 0,011846 24,36 0,0001

Residual 0,00875214 18 0,00048623

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,0205981 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,758353

R-squared = 57,51 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0220506

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-X model: Y = a + b/X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 12,8775 0,448406 28,7184 0,0000

Slope -9,36836 1,58726 -5,90222 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 83,288 1 83,288 34,84 0,0000

Residual 43,0352 18 2,39085

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 126,323 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,811988

R-squared = 65,9324 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 1,54624

Regression Analysis - Double reciprocal model: Y = 1/(a + b/X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,0731984 0,00481562 15,2002 0,0000

Slope 0,128356 0,0170462 7,52988 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,0156346 1 0,0156346 56,70 0,0000

Residual 0,00496346 18 0,000275748

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,0205981 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,871225

R-squared = 75,9033 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0166057

Regression Analysis - Logarithmic-X model: Y = a + b*ln(X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 5,0367 0,675871 7,45216 0,0000

Slope 2,90798 0,299039 9,7244 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 106,123 1 106,123 94,56 0,0000

Residual 20,2002 18 1,12224

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 126,323 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,916565

R-squared = 84,0091 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 1,05936

Regression Analysis - Multiplicative model: Y = a*X^b

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 1,72237 0,0772768 22,2883 0,0000

Slope 0,311979 0,0341911 9,12456 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: intercept = ln(a)

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 1,22146 1 1,22146 83,26 0,0000

Residual 0,264075 18 0,0146708

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 1,48553 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,906772

R-squared = 82,2236 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,121123

Regression Analysis - Square root-Y model: Y = (a + b*X)^2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 2,69136 0,107825 24,9605 0,0000

Slope 0,0599001 0,00900105 6,65479 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 2,38603 1 2,38603 44,29 0,0000

Residual 0,969795 18 0,0538775

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 3,35583 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,843215

R-squared = 71,1012 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,232115

Regression Analysis - S-curve model: Y = exp(a + b/X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 2,5735 0,0442238 58,1927 0,0000

Slope -1,06033 0,156542 -6,77346 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 1,06694 1 1,06694 45,88 0,0000

Residual 0,418593 18 0,0232552

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 1,48553 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,847479

R-squared = 71,822 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,152496

Polynomial Regression Analysis

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONSTANT 5,45398 0,853227 6,39218 0,0000

time 0,862063 0,187126 4,60686 0,0003

time^2 -0,0230898 0,00865545 -2,66766 0,0162

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 103,964 2 51,9821 39,52 0,0000

Residual 22,3591 17 1,31524

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 126,323 19

R-squared = 82,3001 percent

R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 80,2178 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 1,14684

Mean absolute error = 0,85939

Durbin-Watson statistic = 2,45546

	Модель тренда
	y=a+b*t	y=exp(a+b*t)	y=1/(a+b*t)	y=a+b/t	y=1/(a+b/t)	y=a+b*ln(t)	y=a*t^b	y=(a+b*t)^2
	7,61	7,51	7,33	3,51	4,96	5,04	5,60	7,57
	7,99	7,80	7,57	8,19	7,28	7,05	6,95	7,90
	8,36	8,11	7,82	9,75	8,62	8,23	7,89	8,24
	8,74	8,43	8,08	10,54	9,50	9,07	8,63	8,59
	9,12	8,76	8,37	11,00	10,11	9,72	9,25	8,95
	9,49	9,11	8,67	11,32	10,57	10,25	9,79	9,31
	9,87	9,46	9,00	11,54	10,92	10,70	10,27	9,68
	10,25	9,84	9,36	11,71	11,21	11,08	10,71	10,05
	10,63	10,22	9,74	11,84	11,43	11,43	11,11	10,44
	11,00	10,63	10,16	11,94	11,62	11,73	11,48	10,83
	11,38	11,05	10,62	12,03	11,78	12,01	11,83	11,22
	11,76	11,48	11,12	12,10	11,92	12,26	12,15	11,63
	12,14	11,93	11,66	12,16	12,04	12,50	12,46	12,04
	12,51	12,40	12,27	12,21	12,14	12,71	12,75	12,46
	12,89	12,89	12,94	12,25	12,23	12,91	13,03	12,89
	13,27	13,40	13,68	12,29	12,31	13,10	13,29	13,32
	13,64	13,93	14,52	12,33	12,38	13,28	13,55	13,76
	14,02	14,48	15,47	12,36	12,45	13,44	13,79	14,21
	14,40	15,05	16,55	12,38	12,51	13,60	14,03	14,66
	14,78	15,64	17,80	12,41	12,56	13,75	14,25	15,13
	15,15	16,25	19,24	12,43	12,61	13,89	14,47	15,60
	15,53	16,90	20,94	12,45	12,65	14,03	14,68	16,07
	15,91	17,56	22,97	12,47	12,69	14,15	14,89	16,56
R^2 =	74,9	66,8	57,5	65,9	75,9	84,0	82,2	71,1
Kт =	0,047	0,140	0,426	0,164	0,150	0,058	0,017	0,084

Приложение №18 (тренд для W2)

Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 5,66895 0,131323 43,1679 0,0000

Slope 0,105338 0,0109626 9,60885 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 7,37895 1 7,37895 92,33 0,0000

Residual 1,43855 18 0,0799194

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 8,8175 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,914797

R-squared = 83,6853 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,2827

Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 1,74072 0,02063 84,3781 0,0000

Slope 0,0159534 0,00172216 9,26358 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,169249 1 0,169249 85,81 0,0000

Residual 0,0355011 18 0,00197228

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,20475 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,909182

R-squared = 82,6613 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0444104

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,174684 0,00331517 52,6923 0,0000

Slope -0,0024347 0,000276745 -8,79763 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,00394196 1 0,00394196 77,40 0,0000

Residual 0,000916757 18 0,0000509309

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00485872 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,900731

R-squared = 81,1317 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00713659

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-X model: Y = a + b/X

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 7,19319 0,131284 54,7911 0,0000

Slope -2,32471 0,464716 -5,00243 0,0001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 5,12854 1 5,12854 25,02 0,0001

Residual 3,68896 18 0,204942

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 8,8175 19

Correlation Coefficient = -0,762648

R-squared = 58,1632 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,452705

Regression Analysis - Double reciprocal model: Y = 1/(a + b/X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,138841 0,00286762 48,4166 0,0000

Slope 0,0571426 0,0101508 5,62939 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,00309867 1 0,00309867 31,69 0,0000

Residual 0,00176005 18 0,0000977806

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00485872 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,798595

R-squared = 63,7754 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00988841

Regression Analysis - Logarithmic-X model: Y = a + b*ln(X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 5,12608 0,164897 31,0865 0,0000

Slope 0,778975 0,0729588 10,6769 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 7,61508 1 7,61508 114,00 0,0000

Residual 1,20242 18 0,066801

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 8,8175 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,929318

R-squared = 86,3633 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,258459

Regression Analysis - Multiplicative model: Y = a*X^b

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 1,65434 0,0234004 70,6973 0,0000

Slope 0,119941 0,0103535 11,5846 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: intercept = ln(a)

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,180536 1 0,180536 134,20 0,0000

Residual 0,0242145 18 0,00134525

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,20475 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,939008

R-squared = 88,1736 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0366776

Regression Analysis - Square root-X model: Y = a + b*sqrt(X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 4,84492 0,17419 27,8139 0,0000

Slope 0,625977 0,0537563 11,6447 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 7,7842 1 7,7842 135,60 0,0000

Residual 1,0333 18 0,0574058

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 8,8175 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,939581

R-squared = 88,2812 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,239595

Regression Analysis - Square root-Y model: Y = (a + b*X)^2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 2,38465 0,0259398 91,9304 0,0000

Slope 0,0204773 0,00216541 9,45653 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,278847 1 0,278847 89,43 0,0000

Residual 0,0561273 18 0,00311819

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,334974 19

Correlation Coefficient = 0,912383

R-squared = 83,2443 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,0558407

	Модель тренда
	y=a+b*t	y=exp(a+b*t)	y=1/(a+b*t)	y=a+b/t	y=a+b*ln(t)	y=a*t^b	y=a+b*sqrt(t)	y=(a+b*t)^2
	5,77	5,79	5,81	4,87	5,13	5,23	5,47	5,78
	5,88	5,89	5,89	6,03	5,67	5,68	5,73	5,88
	5,98	5,98	5,97	6,42	5,98	5,97	5,93	5,98
	6,09	6,08	6,06	6,61	6,21	6,18	6,10	6,08
	6,20	6,17	6,15	6,73	6,38	6,34	6,24	6,19
	6,30	6,27	6,25	6,81	6,52	6,48	6,38	6,29
	6,41	6,38	6,34	6,86	6,64	6,60	6,50	6,39
	6,51	6,48	6,44	6,90	6,75	6,71	6,62	6,49
	6,62	6,58	6,55	6,93	6,84	6,81	6,72	6,60
	6,72	6,69	6,65	6,96	6,92	6,89	6,82	6,71
	6,83	6,80	6,76	6,98	6,99	6,97	6,92	6,81
	6,93	6,90	6,87	7,00	7,06	7,05	7,01	6,92
	7,04	7,02	6,99	7,01	7,12	7,11	7,10	7,03
	7,14	7,13	7,11	7,03	7,18	7,18	7,19	7,14
	7,25	7,24	7,24	7,04	7,24	7,24	7,27	7,25
	7,35	7,36	7,37	7,05	7,29	7,29	7,35	7,36
	7,46	7,48	7,50	7,06	7,33	7,35	7,43	7,47
	7,57	7,60	7,64	7,06	7,38	7,40	7,50	7,58
	7,67	7,72	7,79	7,07	7,42	7,44	7,57	7,69
	7,78	7,84	7,94	7,08	7,46	7,49	7,64	7,81
	7,88	7,97	8,09	7,08	7,50	7,53	7,71	7,92
	7,99	8,10	8,26	7,09	7,53	7,58	7,78	8,04
	8,09	8,23	8,43	7,09	7,57	7,62	7,85	8,15
R^2 =	83,7	82,7	81,1	58,2	86,4	88,2	88,3	83,2
Kт =	0,133	0,122	0,106	0,228	0,181	0,176	0,154	0,128

Приложение №19 (2МНК для С (23): 1 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 19 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99989131 RІ= ,99978264 Adjusted RІ= ,99968755

REGRESS. F(7,16)=10514, p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,71620

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(16)	p-level
TIME	,022376	,024034	,066121	,071022	,930984	,365697
G	-,047717	,048231	-,161492	,163232	-,989340	,337223
T	,210245	,150108	,447463	,319474	1,400624	,180422
W2	,005406	,085345	,030593	,482959	,063345	,950277
P_1	,006265	,087099	,015038	,209050	,071933	,943546
K_1	,314634	,143981	,133218	,060962	2,185246	,044089
X_1	,490331	,189403	,377460	,145804	2,588828	,019784

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99983276 RІ= ,99966554 Adjusted RІ= ,99963369

REGRESS. F(2,21)=31383, p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,77547

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(21)	p-level
K_1	,277036	,073178	,117298	,030984	3,785760	,001083
X_1	,723095	,073178	,556644	,056333	9,881256	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	37745,48	2	18872,74	31383,44	,000000
Residual	12,63	21	,60
Total	37758,11

Приложение №20 (2МНК для I(23): 1 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 19 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: I (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99567768 RІ= ,99137404 Adjusted RІ= ,98760018

REGRESS. F(7,16)=262,70 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,22827

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(16)	p-level
TIME	,20912	,151408	,03126	,022636	1,3812	,186214
G	-6,21879	,303838	-1,06483	,052026	-20,4674	,000000
T	1,47408	,945624	,15873	,101823	1,5588	,138593
W2	,01039	,537645	,00298	,153929	,0193	,984819
P_1	-,04041	,548693	-,00491	,066629	-,0736	,942209
K_1	2,29295	,907028	,04912	,019430	2,5280	,022376
X_1	3,03165	1,193167	,11807	,046471	2,5408	,021803

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: I (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99341117 RІ= ,98686576 Adjusted RІ= ,98489562

REGRESS. F(3,20)=500,91 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,25193

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(20)	p-level
G	-6,34527	,311128	-1,08649	,053274	-20,3944	,000000
K_1	1,39226	,530890	,02982	,011373	2,6225	,016312
X_1	5,69613	,728327	,22185	,028366	7,8208	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: I (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	95,38058	3	31,79353	500,9124	,000000
Residual	1,26942	20	,06347
Total	96,65000

Приложение №21 (2МНК для W1(23): 1 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression PAGE 227

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 19 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1 (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99975297 RІ= ,99950599 Adjusted RІ= ,99928986

REGRESS. F(7,16)=4624,6 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,47180

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(16)	p-level
TIME	-,075310	,036234	-,097242	,046786	-2,07844	,054120
G	-,062548	,072712	-,092499	,107529	-,86022	,402376
T	-,175002	,226299	-,162749	,210454	-,77332	,450606
W2	-,248041	,128665	-,613334	,318150	-1,92781	,071821
P_1	-,475389	,131308	-,498572	,137712	-3,62040	,002298
K_1	,159695	,217062	,029545	,040159	,73571	,472555
X_1	1,868940	,285538	,628667	,096048	6,54532	,000007

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1 (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99965599 RІ= ,99931211 Adjusted RІ= ,99916729

REGRESS. F(4,19)=6900,4 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,51090

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(19)	p-level
W2	-,319050	,103631	-,788918	,256249	-3,07871	,006181
P_1	-,607477	,117210	-,637101	,122926	-5,18282	,000053
K_1	,572052	,128659	,105836	,023803	4,44626	,000277
X_1	1,352147	,200153	,454830	,067327	6,75558	,000002

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: W1 (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	7204,401	4	1801,100	6900,383	,000000
Residual	4,959	19	,261
Total	7209,360

Приложение №22 (2МНК для С (23): 2 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 26 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,97841689 RІ= ,95729961 Adjusted RІ= ,95302957

REGRESS. F(2,20)=224,19 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: 1,2973

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(20)	p-level
Intercpt			-,811520	2,075319	-,391034	,699907
P$_1	,357021	,108810	,763353	,232649	3,281139	,003735
W1$_W2	,643368	,108810	1,142776	,193273	5,912756	,000009

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,99955074 RІ= ,99910169 Adjusted RІ= ,99901614

REGRESS. F(2,21)=11678, p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: 1,2709

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(21)	p-level
P$_1	,327536	,093789	,780925	,223616	3,492253	,002172
W1$_W2	,672551	,093789	1,098350	,153168	7,170865	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: C (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	37724,19	2	18862,09	11678,12	,000000
Residual	33,92	21	1,62
Total	37758,11

STAT. Durbin-Watson d (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE and serial correlation of residuals

REGRESS.

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	,726905	,629662

Приложение №23 (2МНК для I(23): 2 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 26 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: I (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,48777363 RІ= ,23792311 Adjusted RІ= ,20163374

REGRESS. F(1,21)=6,5563 p<,01822 Std.Error of estimate: 1,0697

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(21)	p-level
Intercpt			6,949261	2,068925	3,35887	,002971
K$_1	-,487774	,190498	-,055101	,021519	-2,56052	,018221

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: I (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	7,50244	1	7,502440	6,556275	,018221
Residual	24,03060	21	1,144314
Total	31,53304

STAT. Durbin-Watson d (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE and serial correlation of residuals

REGRESS.

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	1,767507	-,168735

Приложение №24 (2МНК для W1(23): 2 этап)

STATISTICA: Multiple Regression PAGE 238

data file: DZ2.STA [ 23 cases with 26 variables ]

MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS:

STAT. Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: W1 (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE R= ,93767292 RІ= ,87923051 Adjusted RІ= ,87347958

REGRESS. F(1,21)=152,88 p<,00000 Std.Error of estimate: ,83086

N=23	BETA	St. Err. of BETA	B	St. Err. of B	t(21)	p-level
Intercpt			3,640264	1,138742	3,19674	,004336
X$_1	,937673	,075835	,266905	,021586	12,36467	,000000

STAT. Analysis of Variance; DV: W1 (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE

REGRESS.

Effect	Sums of Squares	df	Mean Squares	F	p-level
Regress.	105,5398	1	105,5398	152,8850	,000000
Residual	14,4967	21	,6903
Total	120,0365

STAT. Durbin-Watson d (dz2.sta)

MULTIPLE and serial correlation of residuals

REGRESS.

	Durbin- Watson d	Serial Corr.
Estimate	,630947	,428784

Приложение №25 (тренды по 23 данным)

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: W2

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,177264 0,00329762 53,7551 0,0000

Slope -0,00277956 0,000240504 -11,5572 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,00781866 1 0,00781866 133,57 0,0000

Residual 0,00122926 21 0,0000585361

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00904792 22

Correlation Coefficient = -0,929591

R-squared = 86,4139 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00765089

Predicted Values

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

95,00% 95,00%

Predicted Prediction Limits Confidence Limits

X Y Lower Upper Lower Upper

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24,0 9,04532 7,81982 10,7263 8,51701 9,64352

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: T

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 0,0685686 0,00108694 63,0843 0,0000

Slope -0,00118631 0,0000792729 -14,9649 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 0,00142423 1 0,00142423 223,95 0,0000

Residual 0,000133552 210,00000635961

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 0,00155778 22

Correlation Coefficient = -0,956174

R-squared = 91,4268 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,00252183

Predicted Values

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

95,00% 95,00%

Predicted Prediction Limits Confidence Limits

X Y Lower Upper Lower Upper

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24,0 24,9395 21,8303 29,0814 23,6086 26,4294

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regression Analysis - Multiplicative model: Y = a*X^b

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dependent variable: G

Independent variable: time

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard T

Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intercept 1,71905 0,0690883 24,882 0,0000

Slope 0,314268 0,0289689 10,8485 0,0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: intercept = ln(a)

Analysis of Variance

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model 1,48406 1 1,48406 117,69 0,0000

Residual 0,26481 21 0,01261

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total (Corr.) 1,74887 22

Correlation Coefficient = 0,921185

R-squared = 84,8582 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0,112294

Predicted Values

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

95,00% 95,00%

Predicted Prediction Limits Confidence Limits

X Y Lower Upper Lower Upper

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24,0 15,1472 11,8546 19,3543 14,0608 16,3175

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Приложение №26

Доверительный интервал для C			Доверительный интервал для I			Доверительный интервал для W1
№	C^	C	№	I^	I	№	W1^	W1
1	27,900	27,9	1	4,10	4,1	1	10,30	10,3
2	28,532	29,33	2	2,67	1,2	2	13,57	12,8
3	29,437	31,2	3	2,60	4,5	3	14,22	15,1
4	30,598	34,43	4	2,34	2,1	4	14,73	15,2
5	30,433	36,53	5	2,26	4,6	5	15,34	16,7
6	34,734	37,65	6	2,01	0,5	6	16,36	16,9
7	36,243	37,35	7	1,98	0,7	7	17,02	17,2
8	37,094	37,58	8	1,93	1,2	8	17,19	17,5
9	37,263	38,4	9	1,85	1,6	9	17,31	17,7
10	36,990	38,78	10	1,75	0,7	10	17,42	17,9
11	37,688	39,45	11	1,71	1,1	11	17,69	18,1
12	37,754	39,53	12	1,64	1,3	12	17,83	18,3
13	38,586	39,98	13	1,55	1,2	13	18,06	18,1
14	38,888	40,43	14	1,47	0,8	14	18,13	18,2
15	39,780	41,33	15	1,42	1,1	15	18,29	18,4
16	40,056	42,9	16	1,36	1,3	16	18,44	18,9
17	41,158	44,7	17	1,30	2,8	17	18,73	19,1
18	42,060	44,93	18	1,15	1,3	18	19,24	19,3
19	43,684	46,13	19	1,07	0,4	19	19,81	19,5
20	43,112	46,13	20	1,06	1,7	20	19,89	19,1
21	44,174	48,23	21	0,96	1,2	21	20,27	19,4
22	44,761	49,28	22	0,92	1,6	22	20,31	19,7
23	46,430	49,95	23	0,84	1,7	23	20,94	20,4
24	47,403		24	0,76		24	21,42
S =	2,89706		S =	1,03497		S =	0,58241
t(0,05;21) =	2,08		t(0,05;21) =	2,08		t(0,05;21) =	2,08
Нижний	41,1692		Нижний	-1,5593		Нижний	20,1027
Верхний	53,6361		Верхний	3,0821		Верхний	22,7296