Innovation management. Учебное пособие
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6. Innovation project management
solutions. The company specializes in computer vision and pattern recognition. The company offers four main lines of systems for traffic control, for the safety of urban facilities with a large territorial extent, for recognizing faces in places where people are in large numbers or in a stream of people in the subway, at railway stations, airports, for recognizing people based on 3D-models in real of time.
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7. EXPERTISE OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS
Tasks and types of expertise. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the project. Objectives and stages of patent research. Qualitative and quantitative methods. Legal protection of the main scientific and technical results. The order of registration of the application for the invention. Application consideration. Proposals for rationalization.
Innovative projects can recoup costs only at the stage of commercial realization of their results and have the risk of losses. Therefore, one of the most important tasks of project management is to accurately assess the risks and evaluate the economic efficiency of the project.
Innovative projects that are proposed for implementation should meet the following requirements:
1.Novelty and prospects of the offered scientific and technical solutions, use of modern domestic and foreign achievements of science and technology;
2.Cost-effectiveness of a new product or new process;
3.Patent and competitiveness;
4.Durability and operational reliability of the product, process
stability;
5.Compliance with safety requirements, technical aesthetics, scientific organization of labor.
To assess the risks and potential effectiveness of the project it is necessary to conduct a thorough examination of the proposed innovative project. An innovative project effective for one enterprise may not be effective for another because of objective and subjective reasons, such as: the level of competence of personnel in the main directions of an innovative project, the state of fixed assets and so on.
The objectives of the project expertise are evaluation:
potential for commercialization of the project results and identification of potential consumers ' interest in its results;
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7.Expertise of innovative projects
willingness of potential investors to Finance the project;
risks of the project;
the possibility of obtaining tax benefits that could be used in the form of a tax credit.
The main aspects of the current situation, with the greatest force affecting the investment activity in general and impeding the investment projects implementation in particular:
the general instability and unpredictability of developments in all spheres of country economic activity;
the specifics of the market financial resources, characterized by negative real value of money-capital;
the imperfection of the current legislation, which does not allow to fully take into account the negative impact of high inflation;
budget cuts caused by the global financial crisis.
The main goal of the expert examination is to provide information on the prospects of new technical and other solutions, economic feasibility and risk of investments presented in the project, based on the integrated assessment of the innovation project itself and the external conditions in which it will be implemented.
The examination has two main functions:
*forecasting by experts and specialists in specific narrow areas of knowledge of various indicators of the technical level of the project, the time for its implementation, costs, projected revenues, market size, the size of demand and so on.
*generalization of the expert assessments obtained by means of special both theoretical and informal methods, based on which the final decision on the feasibility of innovation is made.
In the most General terms, the objectives of the comprehensive study of the project throughout the life cycle is the implementation of technical, commercial, environmental, organizational, social, economic and financial.
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Innovation management
Examination of the project includes the following stages:
1.Preparatory – formation of the expert group;
2.Evaluation – formation of the system of evaluation criteria of the project;
3.Expert and expert evaluation of the project based on specified
criteria;
4.Synthesis – processing of opinions of experts on the evaluation of the project;
5.The final decision is whether to implement or reject the project. The quality of expertise is largely determined by the qualification
of experts and the chosen system of criteria.
The following types of expertise of innovative projects are
used:
scientific;
design;
technological;
production;
environmental;
market (marketing));
commercial (financial);
budgetary.
For each of these types of expertise, a system of criteria for the effectiveness of the project is developed. The criteria for the project are estimated in points.
In the analysis of the scientific content of the project are taken into account:
-clear outline of the project;
-clear definition of the purpose and methods of the study;
-qualitative characteristics of the project;
-scientific background;
-novelty of the problem statement.
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7. Expertise of innovative projects
With the help of scientific and technical criteria, the probability of achieving the required scientific and technical indicators of the project and their impact on the results of the organization is estimated.
The project should be evaluated not only from the standpoint of the current moment, it is advisable to take into account the prospects of development for several years of the product family, further product development, including for other fields of application.
For the organization, the innovation project, the results of which have long-term prospects, is more attractive.
In order to select the best design solutions and reduce risks and uncertainty, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the project on the basis of a certain system of criteria. These include:
1.Scientific and technical criteria include indicators:
-prospects of used scientific and technical solutions,
-patent cleanliness of products and the patentability of technical solutions used,
-prospects of application of the obtained results in future developments,
-positive impact on other projects of public interest and so on.
2.Commercial (financial) criteria include:
-size of investments, start-up costs for project implementation,
-the potential annual profit margin,
-expected net discounted profit margin,
-the value of the internal rate of return that satisfies the investor,
-compliance of the project with the criteria of economic efficiency of capital investments,
-estimation of the period of realization of the product on the market, probable sales volume by year,
-payback period and balance of real cash flows,
-stability of income from the project,
-possibility to use tax benefits,
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Innovation management
-the need to attract debt capital and its share in investments,
-financial risk associated with the project.
3.Production criteria include the following:
-availability of raw materials and the necessary additional equipment,
-need for technological innovation to implement the project,
-availability of production personnel (by number and qualification),
-possibility to use production waste,
-need for additional production capacity (additional equipment).
4.The market (marketing) the criteria provide for a rating:
-compliance of the project with the needs of the market,
-the total market capacity in relation to the products offered by the time
-new products entering the market,
-competitiveness of the project,
-likelihood of commercial success,
-elasticity of demand for the price of these products,
-the need for market research and advertising to promote the product on the market,
-project compliance with existing sales channels,
-obstacles to market entry,
-ability to upgrade the product,
-the expected level of competition and its impact on the price of products and so on.
The next stage of the examination procedure is the point evaluation of the projects under consideration. The method of point estimation is as follows:
the most important factors influencing the results of the project are evaluated (the list of criteria is made);
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7.Expertise of innovative projects
weights are assigned to the criteria according to their importance (significance assessment is given by experts based on past experience or conducted sociological survey among consumers);
quantify qualitative estimates for each of these criteria (low, medium, high).
Based on the results, the evaluation table and the project profile are compiled. It is possible to increase objectivity of conclusions due to involvement to carrying out examination of partners from among the best scientific organizations, the most advanced consulting, service and engineering organizations, the governmental instances supervising spheres of science, technologies, education and so on.
Financial and economic assessment involves the following activities:
financial expertise of the organization by determining the indicators of its financial activities prior to the project;
determination of commercial, budgetary and economic efficiency of investments in the project implemented by this organization.
Assessment of the financial condition of the organization is based on three main forms of financial statements: balance sheet, statement of cash flows and income statement.
It consists in the calculation of financial indicators that clearly reflect the effectiveness of the organization in the short and long term (indicators of solvency and liquidity).
Determination of economic efficiency of the project and making decision on investment of means is performed with use of various indicators to which belong:
net present value (NVP) or integrated effect,
profitability index (PI),
internal rate of return (IRR),
the payback period of the project,
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Innovation management
break-even point of the project.
Based on all these assessments, decisions are made on the design and financing of the project. The decision to Fund a project is intended to determine the optimal combination of different types of financing and different sources at different stages of the project life cycle. At the financing stage, it is important to monitor the targeted expenditure of funds and to evaluate the results obtained at different stages of the project. The following criteria for evaluating innovative projects are also used:
1.The degree of compliance with the market and innovation strategy of the enterprise - determining the compliance of goals, plans and objectives of the innovation project goals and strategies of the organization (enterprise).
2.The level of research works (R&D) – assessment of works from the concept to the justification of the possibility and feasibility of creating an innovative product.
3.The level of development work (R&D) – assessment of the probability of achievement projected in the process of research, scientific, technical and economic indicators of an innovative project, and their impact on the results of innovative activities of the organization (enterprise).
4.Level of production - carrying out the calculations proving sufficiency and need of the required production capacity of the organization (enterprise), training of personnel, increase of level of unification and standardization, the choice of system of quality management, logistics and so on.
5.The level of need for innovation – definition on the basis of market research forecast demand for an innovative product. The purpose of innovative marketing is to estimate the volume of sales, the size and market share, distribution channels, the period of production of new products and so on.
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7.Expertise of innovative projects
6.Level of investment - estimation of expenses necessary for creation of innovative product, their sources, distribution of expenses in time and payback period of investments.
7.Level of commercial success - determination of sales volumes, profit level, net discounted income, profitability of the project.
8.Risk level - assessment of the probability and magnitude of possible damage in case of failure of the project, development of measures to protect the project from the impact of negative factors (financial, industrial, commercial and so on.).
The quantitative evaluation of the innovation project according to this system of criteria can be carried out based on Table 7.1.
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Table 7.1 |
Criteria for the evaluation of innovative projects |
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Сriteria |
Сriteria |
The quality levels of criteria Assessing |
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weight |
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levels in points (1-2-3-4-5) |
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1. The degree of |
0,5 |
1. |
Compatible with current and future |
compliance of the |
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market strategy, (3-5). |
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project with the |
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2. |
The compatibility of an innovation |
market and |
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strategy (2-3,0). |
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innovation |
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3. |
Compliance with the adopted policy in |
strategy of the |
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the field of uncertainty and risk, (1-2). |
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enterprise |
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2. Level of |
0,1 |
1. |
Improvement of the secondary |
research work |
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characteristics, (1-2). |
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2. |
Improvement of the main technical |
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characteristics, (2-4). |
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3. |
Obtaining higher technical characteristics |
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among similar known products, (4-5). |
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3. Level of |
0,1 |
1. |
The scientific and technical level of the |
development work |
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project is lower than the basic product (1-2). |
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2. |
The scientific and technical level of the |
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project corresponds to the indicators of the |
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basic product (2-34). |
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Innovation management
|
Сriteria |
Сriteria |
The quality levels of criteria Assessing |
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weight |
levels in points (1-2-3-4-5) |
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3. |
Level of |
0,1 |
3. The scientific and technical level of the |
development work |
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project exceeds the indicators of the basic |
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product (4-5). |
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4. |
Level of |
0,1 |
1. Compliance with the available capacities |
production |
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of the enterprise, (2-5). 2. Level of |
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production safety during project |
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implementation (1-2). |
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5. |
Level of need |
0,5 |
1. Meet the needs of the market, (1-3). 2. |
for innovation |
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Possibility of future development and |
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further application of the product (3-5). |
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6. |
Level of |
0,2 |
1. According to the sources and amounts of |
investment |
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funding projections project costs (1-5). |
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7. |
Level of |
0,5 |
1. The low level of success (1-2). 2. The |
commercial |
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average success rate (2-4). 3. A high level |
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success |
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of success (4-5). |
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8. |
Level of risk |
0,2 |
1. The probability of the scientific and |
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technical success (1-3). 2. The probability |
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of commercial success (3-5). |
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Legal protection of the main scientific and technical results.
State Committee on science and technology: The main features of registration of applications for inventions
According to the definition fixed in the Civil code of the Russian Federation ["the Civil code of the Russian Federation (part four)" of 18.12.2006 N 230-FZ (edition 31.12.2014)], the invention is " ... a technical solution in any field relating to a product (in particular, a device, a substance, a strain of a micro-organism, a culture of cells of plants or animals) or a method (the process of performing actions on a material object with the help of material means), including the use of a
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