Innovation management. Учебное пособие
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7. Expertise of innovative projects
Cognitive mapping means solving a set of system tasks: identifying an object in the form of a cognitive model, analyzing ways and cycles of a cognitive map, impulse modeling (scenario analysis), analyzing the observability, stability, controllability, optimization, the problem of analyzing the characteristics of adaptivity, self-organization, decision making, structural analysis of systems (analysis of connectivity and complexity), analysis of the relationship between the structural properties of the system and the nature of the impulse processes.
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8. THE RISKS OF INNOVATION PROJECTS
Risk classification. Accounting risks in projects. Methods to reduce the impact of risks. Investment return terms, the accounting rate of return, net present value, internal rate of return.
An innovation project risk is an uncertain event that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative impact on at least one of the objectives of the project (for example, time, cost, content or quality). Analyze the above definition of project risk:
1.In this definition, the interpretation of risk includes not only the negative side, but also the positive one. The fact is that in English, risk is understood as a "chance."
2.An indefinite event is an event that can occur with some probability. If we know for sure that an event will occur, then this is not a risk. Similarly, if we know for sure that an event does not occur, and then this is also not a risk.
3.Innovation project risk affects project objectives. If an event (for example, an earthquake on another continent) does not affect the objectives of the project, then this is not a risk.
Any innovation project risk has two parameters: influence and probability of occurrence (Fig. 8.1).
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Fig. 8.1. Innovation project risk value
A scale from 0 to 1: 0 is used to determine the values of influence and the probability of occurrence of innovation project risk it is known that the event will not occur exactly; 1 - it is known that the event will definitely occur; 0 and 1 - extreme values, they are not taken into account, because the innovation project risk has a probabilistic nature. And if something just happens, it is not a risk, but a fait
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8. The risks of innovation projects
accompli; in this case, you need to manage not the innovation project risks, but the changes.
In determining the impact and probability of occurrence, it is necessary to use the method of expert assessments in most cases, since the product of the project is unique and, accordingly, there is no statistics.
At each stage of the life cycle of an innovative project, enterprises face a set of different types of risks that differ from each other by place and time of occurrence, external and internal factors. As a result, there is a need for methods of analysis and methods of description. The combination of these risks has a negative impact on the company's activities, and make it difficult to make decisions on their optimization, the causes and ways to prevent them.
Risk classification. The main objectives for creating a risk classification are a number of important factors, such as:
development of objective and complete information about the whole set of possible risks in the investment project;
efficient use of all information received for the purpose of the best management of an innovative project;
ability to identify the most important risks for the enterprise;
identifying risk events of an innovation project by retrospective analysis of factors of risk events;
identification of risks that cannot be influenced by their occurrence or mitigate;
possibility of studying and effective application of the selected classification system.
It should be noted that in order to build a complete classification system of investment project risks, it is necessary to determine the General risks specific to investment projects, with a view to their subsequent division into specific investment projects with a specific economic entity.
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American economists have contributed immensely to the development of risk concepts. They have developed a theory of choice of portfolio investment, it is suggested to consider a measure of risk dispersion. When studying the behavior of investors, he noted that investors prefer to invest their funds not in one type of securities, but in several, thus receiving income from several projects. At the same time, along with profit, they are considering the possibility of risk events.
So one of the discoveries of American economists allocated a target model of equity. Based on a combination of borrowed capital, that is, the investor combines borrowed capital and thus chooses the most optimal portfolio of risky securities. The optimal portfolio of risky securities depends on the investor's forecast of future prospects of securities. Introduced the proposal for the development of the index "Beta value", which implies the provision of specific shares for each shareholder included in the same company.
The efficiency of investment projects was also studied and the necessity of applying the method of current value adjusted for risk was substantiated.
The disadvantages of existing classifications of risks. The methods that exist at this stage of market development have a number of disadvantages. Not in all methods is estimated by the complexity of the comparison of the risk with its cost. Some methods are based on comparison of statistics on the occurrence of risk events, which is often absent. In such situations, the sample can be considered representative, in cases where economic indicators for dozens of projects are used. However, some assessment methods do not have a set of tools to identify risk events themselves. Another important feature is that in the context of economic growth, rapid return on investment, the management of many enterprises often does not even consider the possibility of failure of the project, since the initiated project should bring income to the management's understanding. This situation is often
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8. The risks of innovation projects
impossible in the conditions of tough competition and a developed economy as in the sphere of production and in the service sector, which can be seen on the example of industrialized countries.
In cases of insufficient attention to the risks of a possible underestimation of the project, especially from the point of view of investment return. Therefore, in case of failure of investment projects, it is impossible to compare them with the residual value of investments. At the same time, the assessment of risk events in different time periods can be used in the development of the enterprise strategy, on the example of SWOT analysis.
In practice, large organizations are less exposed to the risks of innovative projects, due to the possibility of overlapping their wellfunctioning economic activities. Small organizations are more exposed to risks due to their dependence on the environment. The higher the risk of innovation, the more localized the innovation project. With the large availability of innovative projects, the risks are minimized due to their dispersion in the industry. In General, risks in innovative projects can be defined as the probability of losses arising from the investment of the organization's investments in the production of new goods and services, in the development of new technology that may not find the expected response in the market, as well as when investing in the development of management innovations that may not bring the expected effect.
During risk classification attention should be paid to the three criteria:
project life cycle stages;
attitude to enterprises (macro and micro);
management risks (that is, risks arising in the course of project implementation, at one or another stage of the management function).
Classification of risks by sources of origin. It is worth noting one of the most important, in our opinion, the method of classification by sources of risk:
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1.Commercial risk. Associated with losses arising from the sale of products or services, or in cases of loss of profit. For example, changes in the market situation, the decline in demand.
2.Financial risks arising from mismanagement of financial flows. Financial risks are divided into portfolio, currency and interest rate risks. Portfolio risks arise from the influence of macroeconomic indicators on the assets of enterprises, foreign exchange – when the exchange rate, and subsequently the lack of profit. Interest rate risks are related to changes in interest rates, in case of borrowing money.
3.Investment risk. Possibility of non-repayment of invested funds. Insurance risks associated with the possibility of occurrence of insured events.
4.Marketing risks. Possible in cases of poor marketing research.
5.Industrial risk. In case of disruption of the production process from equipment failure to the destruction of buildings.
6.Political risk. They are connected with the possibility of changing the socio-political situation.
7.Environmental risk. Arise at probable approach of deterioration of the environment which has entailed deterioration of quality of the wood, water, air, land conditions, and also change of life and health of the third parties.
Classification of risks by impact. It should also be noted that the classification of risks is possible by the degree of impact:
Catastrophic risks are jeopardizing the entire innovation
project.
Large risks are leading to significant changes in the expectations and goals of the investment project.
Average risks are change of which leads to negative consequences and change of expectations, goals from the innovative project.
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8.The risks of innovation projects
Small risks-risks, at the onset of which there are negative consequences, forcing significant changes in the management of innovative projects.
Insignificant risks-risks can lead to insignificant change of management of the innovative project.
Emergence of innovative risk. The following cases of innovative risk may occur:
1. The introduction of a cheaper method of production of goods or services, in comparison with the existing ones. This type of innovation can make a profit as long as they are the only owners of this technique. That is, there is a risk of incorrect assessment of demand for a new product or service.
2. Production of new goods or services on old equipment. In this case, the risk of a possible deterioration in the quality of the final product is added to the first risk. Due to the use of outdated equipment.
3. Creation of new equipment or services with the help of new technologies. The possibility of a situation in which the product or service will not find its buyer.
4. One of the most important features of innovative projects is the identification of risks. Some risk events can be fatal. Let us note the main factors of risk classification.
Along with all the risks arising in the management of an innovative project is not superfluous to mention the external and internal risks. To external risk should include tax risks payment of fees associated with the audits, risks changes in the political situation, administrative risks, risks of bankruptcy, etc are also internal risks such as the risk of losses loss of control, loss of investment attractiveness, risks of non-fulfillment of contractual obligations on the part of the interacting organizations.
Methods to reduce the impact of risks. The high degree of risk of the project leads to the need to find ways to reduce it artificially. In
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the practice of project management, the following risk reduction methods are used:
-hedging;
-diversification;
-insurance;
-risk sharing among project participants;
-reservation of funds;
-covering unforeseen expenses, etc.
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Risk avoidance |
Risk retention |
Risk reduction |
Risk transfer |
Exit from risk |
Risk acceptance |
Diversification |
Insurance |
without finansing |
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Limiting |
Hedging |
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Self-insurance |
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Increasing the |
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Fig. 8.2. Risk reduction methods of innovation project
Hedging is the process of insuring against possible loss by transferring the risk of price change from one person to another. Hedging is able to protect the hedger from losses, but at the same time makes it impossible for him to take advantage of the favorable development of the market. Transactions that are subject to the delivery of an asset are called urgent in the future. Transactions aimed at immediate delivery of an asset are called syllabic (cash).
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8. The risks of innovation projects
The first person is called the hedger, the second - the speculator. There is a third party on the derivatives market - the arbitrator. An arbitrage is a person who makes a profit by buying and selling the same asset at the same time in different markets, if different prices are observed on them. The subject of the agreement may be various assets - currency, commodities, stocks, bonds, indices, and more.
The contract, which serves to insure against the risks of changes in exchange rates (prices), is called a "hedge." Hedging is done through the conclusion of forward contracts:
A forward contract is an agreement between the two parties on the future delivery of the subject matter of the contract, which is concluded outside the exchange and is mandatory for execution.
A futures contract is an agreement between the two parties on the future delivery of the subject matter of the contract, which is concluded on the exchange, and its execution is guaranteed by the clearing house of the exchange.
An option contract is an agreement between the two parties on the future delivery of the subject matter of the contract, which is concluded both on and off the stock exchange and grants the right of one of the parties to execute the contract or refuse to execute it.
Diversification refers to investing funds in more than one kind of assets, i.e. this is the process of distributing invested funds among various investment objects that are not directly related to each other. The firm in its business activities, anticipating a drop in demand or orders for the main type of work, is preparing spare fronts of work or reorienting production to the production of other products. The use of a diversified portfolio approach in the securities market (a combination of various securities) allows the company to minimize the likelihood of shortfall in income.
Diversification involves two main ways to manage risk:
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-Active management is the compilation of a forecast of the amount of possible revenues from the main economic activity from the implementation of several investment projects. The active tactics of the company to promote products involves, on the one hand, close monitoring, research and implementation of the most effective investment projects, capturing a significant market share with a specialization in homogeneous production, and on the other hand, the most rapid reorientation of one type of work to another, including possible redeployment to another territory, the market.
-Passive management involves the creation of a stable market for goods with a certain level of risk and a stable retention of their positions in the industry. Passive management is characterized by low turnover, the minimum concentration of the volume of work.
Risk insurance this is the protection of the property interests of the company in case of an insured event (insured event) by special insurance companies (insurers). Risk insurance is essentially the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company. Two basic insurance methods can be applied:
-property insurance, as a system of relations between the insurer and the insurer for the protection of property interests associated with the possession, use and disposal of property.
-accident insurance, as a sub-sector of personal insurance, the types of which relate to the risk of loss of life, health and disability as a result of an accident.
Distribution of risk between project participants. The practice of risk sharing is to make responsible for the risk of the project participant who is able to best calculate and control risks. However, it often happens that this particular partner is not financially strong enough to overcome the consequences of the risks. The distribution of risk is implemented in the development of a financial plan and contract documents.
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