Unit 3 human resource planning: forcasting supply of employees

Vocabulary 1

Using your dictionary, match up words in A to their synonyms in B.

A B

forecast	currently
to assess	record
particular	to collect
at present	to leave
to go on	probability
to employ	to continue
note	prediction
to ascertain	to move to
likelihood	to calculate
to proceed to	appropriate
to go away	to use
relocation	position
to compute	external
model	expert
post	to determine
outside	transition
specialist	round
to gather	trend
series	specific
information	simulation
tendency	available
obtainable	data
approximation	estimate
proper	to estimate

Pre-reading task

Work in small groups.

Now you are going to read about forecasting the supply of employees. What two predictions do you think it is based on?

Reading

Read text 5 quickly. Were your ideas about the predictions involved in forecasting the supply of employees correct?

Text 5 Forecasting supply of employees

Forecasting the supply of employees involves two predictions. The first estimates how many employees there would be in the organization in specific jobs if the human resource programs currently in place continue. As with forecasting demand, both quantitative and qualitative techniques can be used. The most-used quantitative technique is Markov Modelling, which uses historical records to determine the probabilities, in one year, of employees in a specific job either staying in that job, moving to another job in the company, or leaving the company. These are known as transition probabilities and are calculated for each job. By using these probabilities in computer simulations, planners can determine how many individuals should be in each position at any year in the future.

The second prediction is how many individuals in the external labour market would have the necessary skills for employment in the organization at a specific time in the future. As an example of using a qualitative forecasting technique, Diana Taylor could gather experts in a Delphi situation and collect several rounds of data concerning population trends, education levels of specific age groups, and the demand for employees by other companies. She could then use these data to estimate the number of individuals available in the external labour market. The results from both predictions will provide an estimate of the total supply of individuals with appropriate skills.

2. Comprehension check.

Read the text more carefully. Are the following statements true or false? Correct the false ones.

1. To forecast the supply of employees, one has to calculate transition probabilities for each position.

2. Transition probabilities are likely retirements in one year.

3. We can calculate transition probabilities with the help of Markov Modelling.

4. Qualitative techniques are used for estimating the external labour market.

5. The Delphi method is usually employed for measuring individual skills of those currently employed in the organization.

6. Proper assessments of the external labour market and the transition probabilities make it possible to forecast the total supply of employees.