5.4 Forecasting Enterprises (Organisations) Development

Forecast (from Greek "foresight, prevision" means an attempt to define the state of some phenomenon or process in the future. The process of working out the forecast is called forecasting,

Forecasting the enterprise development (state) is the process of scientific grounding possible quantitative and qualitative changes of its state (the development level on the whole, the level of separate activity directions in the future, and also alternative ways of the expected state achievement.

The forecasting process is always based on certain principles. The main principles are as follows:

- Purposefulness (commitment is the notional description of the assigned research tasks;

- System approach is forecasting on the basis of the system of methods and models which are characterised by certain hierarchy and sequence;

- Scientific validity is taking into account requirements of objective laws of the society development, the use of world experience;

- The multilevel characteristic is the description of an object of a complex system, a complete phenomenon and a complex structure;

- Information unity is the information application at one level of generalisation and signs integrity;

- Adequacy to the objective laws of development is revealing and estimating constant interrelations and tendencies of the development of an object;

- Finding alternative ways of development is revealing the possibility of development of an object by different trajectories, under conditions of different interrelations and structural correlations.

The system of forecasting methods is formed by means of fixing the methods (which are possible and structured according to certain signs, hallmarks of working out forecasts of the future state (level of development of this or that subject of managing.

Depending on sources of the information, technology of its processing and ways of receiving results economic methods of forecasting are subdivided into two quantitatively big groups: factographic and heuristic (analytical and intuitive).

Factographic methods are based on the use of actual (statistical) data which characterise in detail time changes of set or separate signs of an object of forecasting.

Heuristic methods provide the implementation of forecasting developments by means of logic techniques and methodical rules of theoretical research.

Forecasting methods can also be divided into qualitative and quantitative ones.

Qualitative methods of forecasting are based mainly on the logic analysis of objects the analysis of which relies on the general laws of economic and social development of subjects of managing. They, as a rule, have for a goal to outline in general the circle of long-term problems of enterprises functioning and to provide possibilities of their solving.

Quantitative methods of forecasting, which are purely formal according to their nature, are based on the mathematical analysis of statistical data which characterises tendencies of forecasting object development for a certain period.