
- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
Higher-quality soil allows Ukrainian producers to implement a low-cost business model using lower amounts of fertilizers and crop protection, which results in an average cost per ha for corn production of more than 2x less in Ukraine than in Brazil. For soybeans, the cost per ha ratio is also lower for Ukraine, though if adjusted for the yield difference, Ukraine’s average production costs of soybean are larger than those in Brazil, though not by much.
Corn production costs, USD/ha, lhs, and USD/t, rhs |
|
Soybean production costs, USD/ha, lhs, and USD/t, rhs |
|
|
|
Note: 2010/11 costs taken for reference. In calculating cost per t, five year average yields were taken as a reference. Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, SLC Agricola |
|
Note: 2010/11 costs taken for reference. In calculating cost per t, five year average yields were taken as a reference. Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, SLC Agricola |
If public companies’ data is taken into account, we note that Brazilian SLC Agricola spends slightly more per ha than the country’s average in order to achieve superior yields. Astarta’s approach resembles that of SLC Agricola: higher yields at slightly more than average costs. There are a bunch of players though, like Sintal Agriculture and KSG Agro, which earn average yields at lower costs. Still, Ukrainian companies’ costs per ha are ~2x less than those of SLC Agricola, one of the most efficient LatAm producers.
Corn production costs, USD/ha, lhs, and USD/t, rhs |
|
Soybean production costs, USD/ha, lhs, and USD/t, rhs |
|
|
|
Note: 2010/11 costs taken for reference. In calculating cost per t, five year average yields were taken for SLC Agricola, two-three years average for Ukrainian companies. Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, SLC Agricola |
|
Note: 2010/11 costs taken for reference. In calculating cost per t, five year average yields were taken for SLC Agricola, two-three years average for Ukrainian companies. Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, SLC Agricola |
Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
For all crops except sunflower, Ukraine`s yields are far below of those posted in the EU and US, because of three key reasons:
Low application of fertilizers
Poor state of agricultural machinery, 70%-80% of which is fully depreciated and yield-harming
Poor land management practices
But compared to Argentina and Brazil, Ukraine’s yields are generally on par, with soybean, LatAm’s kep crop, being the only crop where Ukraine significantly underperforms. Russian farmers lag on yields for all key crops.