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Valuation premium/discount summary

Criterion

Description (BRAD, PLEASE MAKE TEXT IN THIS COLUMN SHORTER)

Max discount

Max premium

Location

(1) Location profitability

We use region’s average yields and prices provided by APK-inform to calculate revenue side and Ukraine’s average figures, on average profit per ha, and then we weight figures according to region`s crop structure.

-37%

54%

See Appendix X for assumed premiums for each region

(2) Yield stability in region

For every region the coefficient of variation is calculated for five year dataset of yields for each crop. Weighted by crop share in crop structure. Bottom quartile is granted with 10% premium for yields stability, up quartile with 10% discount for instability.

-10%

+1%

(3) Weather diversification

+10% premium if significant share of company`s land is located in at least two regions with different weather patterns.

0%

+10%

(4) Company cluster size

-25% discount to the land which is less than in 5 ths ha clusters or fallow.

-6%

0%

Efficiency

(5) Company’s yields compared to region’s average

Three years average yields premium to regions average is calculated, then weighted by regions where company operates and crop share in land planted.

-5%

+37%

(6) Company’s costs per ha compared to Ukraine’s average

We compare costs per ha for key crops with Ukraine’s average figures for 2010.Weighted by crop importance. Maximum discount and premium at 20%.

-20%

+20%

Source: Concorde Capital

Below is a detailed breakdown of the premiums & discounts we applied to each company.

Premiums/discounts by company

Weighted avg location-based, USD/ha*

Yield stability

Weather diversification

Low cluster size

Total location premium to UA avg

Yield efficiency*

Cost efficiency*

Total weighted efficiency premium

Target EV,

USD/ha

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(I) = (1)*(2)*(3)*(4)/

USD 1,600-1

(5)

(6)

(II) = (5)*(6)

$1,600*

(1+(I))*(1+(II))

Agroton

808

0%

0%

0%

-33%

27%

-20%

2%

823

IMC

1,401

0%

0%

0%

17%

25%

-5%

19%

1,661

KSG Agro

1,226

-10%

0%

-3%

-10%

6%

20%

28%

1,373

MCB Agricole

1,135

-3%

10%

-6%

-4%

0%

0%

0%

-

Mriya

1,240

1%

0%

0%

4%

11%

15%

27%

1,589

Sintal

753

-10%

10%

0%

-38%

5%

0%

5%

781

Astarta

1,849

0%

10%

0%

70%

22%

-10%

9%

2,225

Kernel

1,716

-2%

10%

-1%

52%

-5%

-10%

-15%

1,560

MHP

-

0%

10%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

-

* See pages TT-TT for details

Source: Concorde Capital estimates

The subsequent pages discuss in detail base EV/ha per region, and the yield and cost efficiency premiums.

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