
- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Fertilizer use
Average fertilizer use per ha in Ukraine is among the lowest in the world, mostly due to Ukraine’s focus on crops with a lower sensitivity to fertilizer application and the high cost of financing (which decreases the value-to-cost ratio in the application of fertilizers).
If compared by crops, Ukrainian farmers use a similar amount of fertilizers for corn as Argentinian, Brazilian and Russian peers, but twice less than peers in the EU and US. For wheat, a key grain in Ukraine (by share of land), fertilizer application in Ukraine is ~2x below that in Argentina and Brazil, 3x below in the US and 5x below EU levels. The comparison of fertilizer use for barley, which is widely grown in Ukraine, Russia and the EU, is similar to that of wheat.
A comparison of fertilizer use on oilseeds is hardly comparable with Argentina and Brazil, due to the lack of data (the latter are focused on soybeans, while Ukraine is on sunflowers); compared to EU farmers, Ukrainians apply roughly the same amount of fertilizers on sunflower and rapeseed.
Total fertilizer consumption, kg per ha of arable land |
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Fertilizer application by nutrient, kg/ha Wheat |
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Fertilizer application by nutrient, kg/ha Corn |
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Source: FAO |
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Source: FAPRI |
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Source: FAPRI |
Fertilizer application by nutrient, kg/ha Barley |
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Fertilizer application by nutrient, kg/ha Sunflower |
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Fertilizer application by nutrient, kg/ha Rapeseed |
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Source: FAPRI |
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Source: FAPRI |
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Source: FAPRI |
Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
Ukrainians’ key cost advantage to Latin American peers is low lease costs: Ukrainian companies pay USD 35-90/ha vs. USD 250-400/ha for LatAm peers. The cost of fertilizers, if urea is taken as a reference, for Ukrainian farmers is similar to those for Latin Americans (even though all of them consume Ukrainian and Russian products): recent industry consolidation in Ukraine allowed its producer, Ostchem, to price locally sold products at a premium to export prices. Fuel costs are similar between Ukraine and Argentina; Brazil farmers pay up to a 50% premium. Labor costs in Ukraine are considerably lower than in its UBRA peers. Russian farmers enjoy up to 20% cheaper fertilizers, the lowest lease costs and 10%-50% cheaper fuel.
Lease costs, USD/ha per annum |
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Fertilizer costs, Urea price, USD/t |
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Source: Concorde Capital estimates |
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Source: ICIS, Allua.biz, Eurochem |
Fuel costs, unleaded gasoline, EUR/l |
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Labor costs, Minimum wage, USD/month |
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Source: Concorde Capital estimates |
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Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service, Wageindicator, Brazilian president’s official website |