
- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
Rapid growth of the landbank through acquisitions: TTT ths ha added in 2011, another 119.2 ths ha added in April 2012 to a total of 330 ths ha, the largest among listed companies
One of the best location of the landbank: we estimate the land delivers 50% more in gross profit per ha than Ukraine`s average
Landbank dynamics, ths ha |
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Crop structure, by ha, 2011 |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Wheat |
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Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Corn |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Crop yields, t/ha, 2011 |
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Source: Company data, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine |
Market data |
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Bloomberg |
AGT PW |
Reuters |
AGT=PW |
Recommendation |
SELL |
Price, PLN |
17.5 |
12M target, PLN |
17.0 |
Upside |
-3% |
No of shares, mln |
21.7 |
Market Cap, PLN mln |
379.2 |
52-week performance |
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52-week range, PLN |
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ADT, 12M, PLN mln |
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Free float, % |
0.4 |
Free float, PLN mln |
177.2 |
Source: Bloomberg |
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Ownership structure |
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Andrii Verevskyy |
38% |
Free float |
62% |
Source: Company data |
Share price performance |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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Company description Ukraine`s largest diversified agricultural company with sunflower oil production and grain trading as a core activities (66% and 29% of revenues in FY 2011 respectively). Aggressively expanded in farming by adding a total 240 ths ha via acquisitions over the last 1.5 years.
Company`s landbank, ths ha
Source: Company data |
MHP
Poultry producer
Farming segment provides feedstock for poultry farming, a key segment for the company. Extra crops are sold to third partie
We calculate farming accounted for 18% of revenues and 30% of EBITDA in 2011
The most efficient farmer able to achieve largest crop yields premiums to its benchmark region averages which more than compensate the industry highest costs applied to ha
One of the best land location
Landbank dynamics, ths ha |
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Crop structure, by ha, 2011 |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Wheat |
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Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Corn |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Crop yields, t/ha, 2010 |
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2011 |
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Source: Company data, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine |
Market data |
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Bloomberg |
AGT PW |
Reuters |
AGT=PW |
Recommendation |
SELL |
Price, PLN |
17.5 |
12M target, PLN |
17.0 |
Upside |
-3% |
No of shares, mln |
21.7 |
Market Cap, PLN mln |
379.2 |
52-week performance |
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52-week range, PLN |
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ADT, 12M, PLN mln |
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Free float, % |
0.4 |
Free float, PLN mln |
177.2 |
Source: Bloomberg |
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Ownership structure |
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Yury Kosyuk |
80.7% |
Free float |
19.3% |
Source: Company data |
Share price performance |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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Company description Largest poultry producer in Ukraine, with a market share of 50% of industrially produced chicken. Also cultivates 280 ths ha. Owns a sunflower oilseed pressing plant with a total capacity of 590 kt p.a. In 2011, produced 384 kt of poultry working at full capacity, 174 kt of sunflower oil and 1.7 mln mt of crops. Key investment project is Vinnytsia poultry facility: total target production capacity of 440 kt of chicken meat per year, first stage with 220 kt to be launched in 1Q13.
Company`s landbank, ths ha
Source: Company data |