- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Sintal Agriculture in six charts
Landbank dynamics, ths ha |
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Crop structure, by ha |
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Source: Company data, Concorde Capital |
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Source: Company data, Concorde Capital |
Crop yields, 2010 |
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Crop yields, 2011 |
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Source: Company data, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine |
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Source: Company data, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine |
Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Wheat |
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Sunflower |
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Soybean |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Astarta Sugar maker
Farming segment core focus is to produce sugar beets for its sugar processing plant
The best location of its landbank: we estimate fair value of its land at USD 2,713/ha vs. USD 994-2,288/ha for other listed companies
Able to achieve one of the highest crop yields premiums to the average for its benchmark region: 30% for corn and sugar beets, 21% and 22% for wheat and barley respectively in average in 2010-11
In landbank expansion aims to acquire cheap low-quality land and develop it to a high quality within five years
Landbank dynamics, ths ha |
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Crop structure, by ha, 2011 |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Wheat |
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Production costs, USD/ha, 2011 Corn |
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Source: Company data |
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Source: Company data |
Crop yields, t/ha, 2010 |
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2011 |
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Source: Company data, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine |
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Market data |
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Bloomberg |
AST PW |
Reuters |
AST=PW |
Recommendation |
SELL |
Price, PLN |
17.5 |
12M target, PLN |
17.0 |
Upside |
-3% |
No of shares, mln |
21.7 |
Market Cap, PLN mln |
379.2 |
52-week performance |
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52-week range, PLN |
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ADT, 12M, PLN mln |
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Free float, % |
37% |
Free float, PLN mln |
177.2 |
Source: Bloomberg |
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Ownership structure |
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Victor Ivanchyk |
37% |
Valery Korotkov |
26% |
Free float |
37% |
Source: Company data |
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Share price performance |
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Source: Bloomberg |
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Company description Largest sugar producer in Ukraine with 16% market share in 2011. Derives 64% of revenues from sugar segment (60% of gross profit), 26% from farming (ex sugar beets; 32% of gross profit) and remaining from cattle farming.
Company`s landbank, ths ha
Source: Company data |
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