- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Financials
Income statement*, usd mln
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Net Revenues |
91 |
148 |
162 |
268 |
248 |
300 |
347 |
403 |
428 |
447 |
465 |
484 |
504 |
524 |
Change y-o-y |
N/M |
64% |
9% |
66% |
-8% |
21% |
16% |
16% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
Cost Of Sales |
(28) |
(62) |
(61) |
(89) |
(100) |
(127) |
(150) |
(178) |
(189) |
(196) |
(203) |
(209) |
(216) |
(223) |
Gross Profit |
63 |
86 |
100 |
179 |
148 |
173 |
197 |
225 |
239 |
251 |
263 |
275 |
287 |
301 |
SG&A |
(11) |
(7) |
(9) |
(24) |
(22) |
(27) |
(31) |
(36) |
(39) |
(40) |
(42) |
(44) |
(45) |
(47) |
Other Operating Income, net |
8 |
8 |
10 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
EBITDA |
60 |
88 |
102 |
173 |
142 |
165 |
189 |
215 |
228 |
240 |
251 |
262 |
275 |
287 |
EBITDA margin. % |
67% |
59% |
63% |
64% |
57% |
55% |
54% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
55% |
Depreciation |
(1) |
(2) |
(8) |
(17) |
(23) |
(28) |
(30) |
(31) |
(32) |
(32) |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
(36) |
EBIT |
59 |
85 |
94 |
155 |
119 |
137 |
158 |
184 |
197 |
207 |
218 |
228 |
240 |
251 |
EBIT margin. % |
65% |
57% |
58% |
58% |
48% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
Finance expenses |
(8) |
(13) |
(26) |
(51) |
(40) |
(39) |
(44) |
(47) |
(50) |
(51) |
(53) |
(53) |
(54) |
(55) |
Financial income |
3 |
7 |
18 |
29 |
4 |
2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Other income/(expense) |
12 |
(2) |
(0) |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
PBT |
66 |
77 |
86 |
135 |
83 |
100 |
114 |
137 |
147 |
156 |
165 |
175 |
186 |
196 |
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(1) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(3) |
(3) |
(3) |
(3) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
Effective tax rate |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Extraordinary Income/(loss) |
(43) |
(7) |
24 |
21 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Net Income |
23 |
70 |
109 |
155 |
81 |
98 |
112 |
134 |
144 |
153 |
161 |
172 |
182 |
192 |
Net margin. % |
25% |
47% |
68% |
58% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
33% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
37% |
Dividend Declared |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
90 |
127 |
138 |
145 |
153 |
155 |
173 |
182 |
*All figures are net of remeasurement of agricultural produce and revaluation of biological assets
Balance sheet, USD mln
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Current Assets |
154 |
236 |
378 |
519 |
415 |
434 |
449 |
504 |
528 |
546 |
564 |
582 |
601 |
621 |
Cash & Equivalents |
72 |
105 |
95 |
184 |
74 |
45 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
Trade Receivables |
51 |
51 |
100 |
108 |
124 |
150 |
174 |
202 |
214 |
223 |
233 |
242 |
252 |
262 |
Inventories and biological assets |
26 |
64 |
168 |
200 |
191 |
208 |
223 |
241 |
249 |
255 |
261 |
267 |
274 |
280 |
Other current assets |
5 |
16 |
15 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
41 |
43 |
45 |
47 |
49 |
51 |
53 |
Fixed Assets |
52 |
72 |
213 |
534 |
679 |
820 |
869 |
871 |
874 |
876 |
879 |
885 |
893 |
900 |
PP&E. net |
50 |
47 |
181 |
381 |
527 |
668 |
716 |
719 |
721 |
724 |
726 |
733 |
741 |
748 |
Other Fixed Assets |
2 |
25 |
32 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
152 |
Total Assets |
206 |
309 |
591 |
1,053 |
1,094 |
1,254 |
1,318 |
1,375 |
1,402 |
1,422 |
1,443 |
1,468 |
1,494 |
1,522 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' Equity |
147 |
222 |
424 |
595 |
676 |
774 |
797 |
803 |
809 |
817 |
825 |
842 |
851 |
861 |
Share Capital |
86 |
86 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
120 |
Reserves and Other* |
61 |
136 |
304 |
475 |
556 |
654 |
677 |
683 |
689 |
697 |
705 |
722 |
731 |
741 |
Current Liabilities |
29 |
63 |
121 |
170 |
121 |
174 |
207 |
247 |
263 |
323 |
331 |
336 |
350 |
364 |
ST Interest Bearing Debt |
21 |
34 |
84 |
113 |
62 |
99 |
120 |
144 |
154 |
209 |
214 |
214 |
224 |
233 |
Trade Payables |
4 |
26 |
17 |
38 |
35 |
45 |
52 |
62 |
66 |
69 |
71 |
73 |
76 |
78 |
Other Current Liabilities |
4 |
4 |
19 |
18 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
43 |
45 |
47 |
48 |
50 |
52 |
LT Liabilities |
29 |
23 |
46 |
288 |
296 |
306 |
314 |
325 |
329 |
283 |
286 |
290 |
293 |
297 |
LT Interest Bearing Debt |
24 |
19 |
27 |
238 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
200 |
200 |
200 |
200 |
200 |
Other LT |
5 |
4 |
20 |
50 |
46 |
56 |
64 |
75 |
79 |
83 |
86 |
90 |
93 |
97 |
Total Liabilities & Equity |
206 |
309 |
591 |
1,053 |
1,094 |
1,254 |
1,318 |
1,375 |
1,402 |
1,422 |
1,443 |
1,468 |
1,494 |
1,522 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Debt, USD mln |
(26) |
(52) |
16 |
167 |
237 |
304 |
352 |
374 |
383 |
387 |
391 |
390 |
399 |
407 |
Cash flow statement, USD mln
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Net Income |
23 |
70 |
109 |
155 |
81 |
98 |
112 |
134 |
144 |
153 |
161 |
172 |
182 |
192 |
Depreciation |
1 |
2 |
8 |
17 |
23 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
Non-operating & non-cash items |
(9) |
11 |
23 |
(16) |
(4) |
10 |
9 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
Changes in working capital |
- |
(28) |
(145) |
(32) |
(2) |
(33) |
(31) |
(36) |
(17) |
(13) |
(13) |
(13) |
(14) |
(14) |
Operating Cash Flow |
14 |
55 |
(4) |
125 |
98 |
102 |
120 |
139 |
164 |
175 |
185 |
196 |
207 |
218 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capital Expenditures. net |
(22) |
(3) |
(60) |
(142) |
(168) |
(169) |
(79) |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
(35) |
(41) |
(43) |
(43) |
Other Investments. net |
(51) |
(135) |
(81) |
(90) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Investing Cash Flow |
(74) |
(138) |
(141) |
(233) |
(168) |
(169) |
(79) |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
(35) |
(41) |
(43) |
(43) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Borrowings/(repayments) |
23 |
(0) |
68 |
170 |
100 |
38 |
21 |
24 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
9 |
Dividends Paid |
(1) |
(1) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(90) |
(127) |
(138) |
(145) |
(153) |
(155) |
(173) |
(182) |
Other |
85 |
88 |
(3) |
(24) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Financing Cash Flow |
108 |
88 |
65 |
146 |
100 |
38 |
(69) |
(103) |
(128) |
(140) |
(149) |
(154) |
(163) |
(173) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Cash Balance |
(0) |
32 |
2 |
3 |
44 |
74 |
45 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Ending Cash Balance |
32 |
2 |
3 |
44 |
74 |
45 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
Net Cash Inflows/Outflows |
49 |
5 |
(80) |
39 |
30 |
(29) |
(28) |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Source: Company data, Concorde Capital projections