- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Operating assumptions
Crops segment assumptions
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011E |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Land bank |
150 |
201 |
229 |
240 |
297 |
350 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
Planted acreage (ths ha) |
84 |
146 |
217 |
240 |
248 |
298 |
340 |
380 |
380 |
380 |
380 |
380 |
380 |
380 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Acreage breakdown |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat |
23% |
32% |
35% |
57% |
56% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
Corn |
13% |
14% |
17% |
7% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
Barley |
9% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Buckwheat |
13% |
5% |
6% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Rapeseed total |
23% |
19% |
12% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
Soy |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Sugar beet |
12% |
18% |
22% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
Potatoes |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Other |
4% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Crop yields, t/ha |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat |
5.8 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
Corn |
7.0 |
6.0 |
3.6 |
7.0 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
Barley |
4.6 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Rapeseed |
2.8 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
Soy |
2.7 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sugar beet |
54 |
48 |
36 |
44 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
47 |
48 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
Potatoes |
28 |
26 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
|
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Marketing year data |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue, USD/ha |
|
974 |
870 |
1,166 |
968 |
1,052 |
1,055 |
1,098 |
1,142 |
1,188 |
1,236 |
1,286 |
1,338 |
1,392 |
Costs, USD/ha |
|
405 |
432 |
491 |
508 |
543 |
548 |
569 |
587 |
606 |
625 |
645 |
666 |
688 |
Gross profit, USD/ha |
|
569 |
438 |
675 |
460 |
510 |
507 |
529 |
555 |
583 |
611 |
641 |
672 |
705 |
Gross margin, MY |
|
58% |
50% |
58% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Calendar year figures, USD mln |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
88.7 |
137.6 |
142.9 |
254.7 |
247.8 |
300.0 |
347.0 |
403.1 |
427.9 |
446.8 |
465.2 |
484.1 |
503.6 |
524.0 |
Gross profit |
61.8 |
85.0 |
99.0 |
143.9 |
125.0 |
144.8 |
167.1 |
194.2 |
207.6 |
218.6 |
229.5 |
240.8 |
252.5 |
264.7 |
Gross margin |
0% |
57% |
51% |
56% |
50% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories balance, USD mln |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agricultural produce at year start |
|
4.4 |
3.3 |
47.0 |
69.6 |
62.0 |
75.0 |
86.8 |
100.8 |
107.0 |
111.7 |
116.3 |
121.0 |
125.9 |
Value of harvest |
|
136.6 |
186.6 |
277.3 |
240.2 |
313.1 |
358.8 |
417.2 |
434.0 |
451.6 |
469.8 |
488.8 |
508.5 |
529.1 |
Sales |
|
137.6 |
142.9 |
254.7 |
247.8 |
300.0 |
347.0 |
403.1 |
427.9 |
446.8 |
465.2 |
484.1 |
503.6 |
524.0 |
old year sales |
|
3% |
2% |
18% |
28% |
21% |
22% |
22% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
new year sales |
|
97% |
98% |
82% |
72% |
79% |
78% |
78% |
76% |
76% |
76% |
76% |
76% |
76% |
Sales as % of supply |
|
98% |
75% |
79% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
Agricultural produce at year end |
|
3.3 |
47.0 |
69.6 |
62.0 |
75.0 |
86.8 |
100.8 |
107.0 |
111.7 |
116.3 |
121.0 |
125.9 |
131.0 |
Source: Company data, Concorde Capital estimates