- •Investment Case 11
- •Valuation summary 37
- •Investment case 53
- •Investment Case
- •Companies Compared Stock data
- •Key metrics
- •Per ha comparison
- •Management credibility
- •Market Overview Summary
- •Ukraine in global context Ukraine produces 2-3% of world soft commodities
- •Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, barley and rapeseed are Ukraine’s key soft commodities to export
- •Ukraine is 8th in arable land globally
- •Key inputs used in crop farming Ukraine`s climate favorable for low-cost agriculture
- •Soil fertility map
- •Machinery use far below developed countries
- •Land trade moratorium makes more benefits
- •Fertilizer use
- •Inputs prices: lease cost is Ukraine’s key cost advantage
- •Case study: Production costs in Ukraine vs. Brazil for corn and soybean
- •Farming Efficiency Ukrainian crop yields lag the eu and us, on par with Argentina and Brazil, above Russia’s
- •5Y average yields, t/ha and their respective 10y cagRs
- •Yields at a premium in Ukraine on the company level
- •Growth Growth should come from yield improvement, crop structure reshuffle and acreage increase
- •Crop structure is gradually shifting to more profitable cultures
- •Combined crop structure of listed companies
- •Ukraine`s 2012 harvest outlook
- •Valuation
- •Valuation summary
- •Valuation summary
- •Asset-based approach
- •Asset-based valuation
- •Valuation premium/discount summary
- •Location matters: Value of land by region
- •Yields efficiency comparing to benchmark region
- •Cost efficiency
- •Adding supplementary businesses
- •Valuation summary for other assets
- •Cost of equity assumptions
- •Model assumptions
- •Landbank growth capped at 30%
- •Crop structure
- •Biological revaluation (ias 41) excluded
- •Land ownership
- •Company Profiles Agroton a high cost producer
- •Investment case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Agroton in six charts
- •Operati
- •Industrial Milk Company Corn story
- •Investment case
- •A focus on the corn explains high margins
- •Location favourable for corn
- •Well on track with ipo proceeds
- •Weak ebitda margin in 2012 explained by non-cash items
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro On the road to space/Not ready to be public
- •Investment Case
- •A 5x yoy boost in total assets looks strange to us
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Ksg Agro in six charts
- •Mcb Agricole Acquisition target with lack of positives for minorities
- •Investment Case
- •Inventories balance, usd mln
- •Overview of acquisitions of public farming companies in Ukraine
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement, usd mln
- •Mcb Agricole in six charts
- •Mriya Too sweet to be true
- •Investment Case
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Mriya in six charts
- •Sintal Agriculture
- •Investment Case
- •25% Yoy cost reduction in 2011 should improve margins
- •Irrigation is a growth option
- •Inventory balance, usd mln
- •Valuation
- •Valuation
- •Operating assumptions
- •Financials
- •Income statement*, usd mln
- •Sintal Agriculture in six charts
- •Astarta Sugar maker
- •Kernel Grain trader actively integrating upstream
- •Poultry producer
- •Appendices Land value
- •Current landowner income capitalization model
- •Farmer income capitalization model
- •Normative value
- •Biological asset revaluation
- •How do we adjust the income statement to be on a cost basis?
- •Ias 41 application summary
- •Appendix: Crop production schedule Crop schedule, based on 2012 harvesting year
- •Investment ratings
- •Contacts
Financials
Income statement*, usd mln
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Net Revenues |
57 |
100 |
94 |
105 |
112 |
117 |
122 |
127 |
132 |
137 |
142 |
147 |
Change y-o-y |
4% |
74% |
-6% |
12% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
Cost Of Sales |
(41) |
(53) |
(62) |
(73) |
(76) |
(79) |
(82) |
(85) |
(88) |
(91) |
(94) |
(96) |
Gross Profit |
16 |
47 |
32 |
33 |
36 |
38 |
40 |
42 |
44 |
46 |
48 |
51 |
SG&A |
(9) |
(7) |
(9) |
(10) |
(11) |
(11) |
(12) |
(12) |
(13) |
(13) |
(13) |
(14) |
Other Operating Income, net |
(2) |
(15) |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
EBITDA |
5 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
33 |
35 |
EBITDA margin. % |
9% |
25% |
22% |
20% |
21% |
21% |
22% |
22% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
Depreciation |
(6) |
(4) |
(7) |
(8) |
(9) |
(9) |
(9) |
(9) |
(9) |
(10) |
(10) |
(10) |
EBIT |
(1) |
20 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
EBIT margin. % |
-1% |
20% |
15% |
12% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
17% |
Finance Expense |
(14) |
(5) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
PBT |
(14) |
15 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
Effective tax rate |
-1% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Extraordinary Income/(Loss) |
(0) |
(3) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Net Income |
(15) |
12 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
Net Margin. % |
-25% |
12% |
8% |
6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
13% |
Dividend Declared |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
6 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
*All figures are net of remeasurement of agricultural produce and revaluation of biological assets
Balance sheet, USD mln
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Current Assets |
95 |
122 |
103 |
105 |
105 |
110 |
114 |
118 |
123 |
127 |
132 |
136 |
Cash & Equivalents |
14 |
18 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Trade Receivables |
8 |
40 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
Inventories and biological assets |
73 |
63 |
67 |
74 |
78 |
81 |
84 |
88 |
91 |
94 |
97 |
101 |
Other current assets |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Fixed Assets |
49 |
58 |
84 |
91 |
93 |
90 |
88 |
85 |
81 |
78 |
75 |
75 |
PP&E. net |
38 |
31 |
57 |
64 |
66 |
63 |
60 |
57 |
54 |
51 |
48 |
47 |
Other Fixed Assets |
11 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
Total Assets |
144 |
180 |
187 |
196 |
199 |
200 |
202 |
203 |
204 |
205 |
207 |
211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' Equity |
122 |
120 |
127 |
134 |
143 |
146 |
147 |
147 |
148 |
148 |
149 |
152 |
Share Capital |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
89 |
Reserves and Other |
33 |
31 |
38 |
45 |
54 |
57 |
58 |
58 |
59 |
59 |
60 |
63 |
Current Liabilities |
19 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
34 |
ST Interest Bearing Debt |
14 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
Trade Payables |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Other Current Liabilities |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
LT Liabilities |
3 |
48 |
50 |
50 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
LT Interest Bearing Debt |
3 |
48 |
50 |
50 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
Other LT |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Total Liabilities & Equity |
144 |
180 |
187 |
196 |
199 |
200 |
202 |
203 |
204 |
205 |
207 |
211 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Debt |
3 |
34 |
35 |
44 |
42 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
41 |
*For forecasted periods, does not include the effect of remeasurement of agricultural produce and revaluation of biological assets
Cash flow statement, USD mln
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012E |
2013E |
2014E |
2015E |
2016E |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
2020E |
2021E |
Net Income |
(15) |
12 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
Depreciation |
6 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
Non-operating & non-cash items |
7 |
(4) |
- |
- |
(0) |
(0) |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
(0) |
0 |
0 |
Changes in working capital |
0 |
(15) |
17 |
(8) |
(5) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
(4) |
Operating Cash Flow |
(2) |
(2) |
32 |
6 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capital Expenditures. net |
(12) |
(26) |
(33) |
(15) |
(11) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(7) |
(10) |
Other Investments. net |
1 |
(0) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Investing Cash Flow |
(11) |
(26) |
(33) |
(15) |
(11) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(6) |
(7) |
(10) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Borrowings/(repayments) |
(58) |
31 |
(1) |
1 |
(6) |
(2) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Dividends Paid |
|
|
- |
- |
- |
(6) |
(11) |
(12) |
(13) |
(15) |
(16) |
(16) |
Other |
50 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Financing Cash Flow |
(7) |
31 |
(1) |
1 |
(6) |
(9) |
(10) |
(12) |
(13) |
(15) |
(16) |
(15) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Cash Balance |
35 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Ending Cash Balance |
14 |
18 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Net Cash Inflows/Outflows |
(2) |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Source: Company data, Concorde Capital projections