Добавил:
ivanov666
Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз:
Предмет:
Файл:Сравнительный анализ финансового состояния международных нефтяных компаний. Учебное пособие
.pdf
CHAPTER IV. MAJOR FINDINGS
The oil and gas industry remains the most important sector in the
economy of Russia. Russia has one of the world's largest potential
energy resources. At 13 % of the Earth, in a country with less than 3%
of the world's population, accounts for about 13 % of the world's proven
oil reserves.
As of 1 January 2012, according to the official published
information (before data on oil and gas reserves were classified),
recoverable oil reserves in the Russian Federation by Category A/B/C1
constitute 17.8 billion tons, or 129.9 billion barrels (on the basis that 1
ton export blend Urals is 7.3 barrels) . Estimated time for which enough
of these stocks at current production (slightly more than 10 million
barrels, or 1.4 million tons per day) is 35 years.
Crude oil and petroleum products account for about 40 % of the
total exports of Russian oil - a significant source of revenues. The
Russian Federation is one of the leading operators in the international oil
business, being the largest net exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. Russia,
Norway and Mexico are the only countries outside of OPEC, among the
10 largest net exporters of the world.
Russian oil major market remains Europe. Currently in Europe sent
93 % of all oil exports from Russia. This estimate includes both the
markets of North-West Europe, the Mediterranean and the CIS
countries. Oil supplies to the Asia -Pacific region is gradually
increasing. This market is dominated by oil deliveries to China, which
accounts for the bulk of the growth. In the U.S. market the main
consumer of Russian oil are the United States, but these supplies play an
appreciable role.
Annual output of 300 million tons of oil, about 100-110 in raw
form is exported. Given the exported oil products, total Russian oil
exports more than half of its production. For non-renewable natural
resource stocks in Russia are very limited, which is very high.
In previous parts we already mentioned that the ratio helps to
evaluated financial strengths and weaknesses of companies. We divided
the ratio analysis into four categories such as liquidity, activity,
solvency, profitability.
Tables 1, 2 in Appendix summarise the results from ratio analysis.
As we can see, U.S. companies have the problem with the liquidity
and two U.S. companies (ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil) have the
problem with profitability. The analysis shows that the three
71
(ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Lukoil OAO) companies have negative
trend in financial performance. Other companies (Chevron, Rosneft
OAO, Gazprom Neft) have positive trend in most financial performance.
Despite the fact that the oil industry is an important sector in the
economy of Russia when we view in terms of revenue for Russian
companies is far from American companies.
Correlation analysis shows that:
American companies have higher correlation, so ratio
analysis will be useful and we can use most of the classic ratios;
Russian companies have low correlation coefficients than
U.S. companies and they have low value, so the operations are more
volatile.
Historical value more predicting power for U.S. companies in
the oil and gas industry.
Analyse the biggest oil companies in both countries, that
Russian market is more risky than American and ratio analysis will
show less about future of Russian companies.
It would be desirable to sum up the results in the thesis. The thesis
consists of four parts. The first chapter describes literature review. The
second chapter deals with theoretical approaches to financial analysis.
Third is practical and includes ratio analysis. The four parts contains
results of all thesis.
The theoretical part can be concluded as follows:
The financial analysis is very important for definition of a
financial condition of the companies. Financial analysis can be applied
in a wide variety of situations to give business managers the information
they need to make critical decisions. Financial analysis is an aspect of
the overall business finance function that involves examining historical
data to gain information about the current and future financial health of a
company. The information bases for carrying out the financial analysis
are balance sheet, the income statement and statement of cash flows.
As compared IFRS and US GAAP have both pluses and
minuses. From one side, to the accounting compilers can be more
comfortable to use the standards of US GAAP gone into detail,
prescribing every step. On the other hand, near to excessive detail,
absence of clear structure, difficult hierarchy of the American standards
complicate the use by them. In 2002 it was signed Norvolokskoe
agreement according to that efforts united for the removal of basic
72
differences of IFRS and US GAAP. As researches show, distinctions
between standards remain less.
In the thesis ratios were considered into four major categories
(Liquidity, Profitability, Activity and Solvency). Ratio analysis is an
important tool for analyzing the company's financial performance.
The practical part of the thesis has the following conclusions:
The liquidity ratios in 2013 were decreased in five companies,
except “Gazprom”. In this company all ratios were increased including
Cash Ratio – 73%, Current Ratio – 27%, Quick Ratio – 43%. The largest
decrease was occurred in “Rosneft” including Cash Ratio – 135%,
Current Ratio – 81%, Quick Ratio – 104%.
The profitability ratios were decreased in four companies and
two companies were increased in 2013:
The Activity ratios were increased in 2013 in ConocoPhillips,
ExxonMobil, Rosneft OAO, Lukoil OAO. Indexes of other companies
(Chevron and Gazprom Neft) were decreased.
The Solvency ratios were increased in all Russian companies
and one American company – Chevron. Indexes of other companies
(ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil) were decreased.
U.S. companies have the problem with the liquidity and two U.S.
companies (ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil) have the problem with
profitability. The analysis shows that the three companies
(ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Lukoil OAO) have negative trend in
financial performance. Other companies (Chevron, Rosneft OAO,
Gazprom Neft) have positive trend in most financial performance.
Despite the fact that the oil industry is an important sector in the
economy of Russia when we view in terms of revenue for Russian
companies is far from American companies.
We have tested two hypotheses. So, the predictive power of the
historical Profitability Ratios is bigger in U.S. companies. Liquidity
Ratios and Profitability Ratios are good predictors in U.S. So, ratio
analysis is useful in predicting future performance for U.S. firms in the
oil and gas industry.
73
LIST OF REFERENCES
1. Analytical Bulletin (2013). Oil and gas extraction and
refining industries: Trends and Forecasts, ʋ5HVXOWV
2. Babalola Y. A., Abiola F. R. (2013) -. Financial Ratio Analysis
of Firms: A Tool for Decision Making. International Journal of
Management SciencesVol. 1, No. 4, p. 132-137;
3. Beaver W., Correia M., McNichols M. (2011) - Financial
Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress, Now
Publishers Inc;
4. Bernhardt K. K. (2010). DuPont Financial Analysis Model A
Process For Knowing Where to Spend My Management Time
Tomorrow Morning After Breakfast, UW-Platteville, Center for Dairy
Profitability;
5. Bragg, S. (2007). Business Ratios and Formulas. A
Comprehensive Guide, John Wiley & Sons Inc, USA;
6. Bragg, S. (2012). Financial Analysis: A Controller's Guide, 2nd
edition, Wiley, Canada.
7. Bragg, S. (2013). Financial Analysis: A Business Decision
Guide, John Wiley & Sons;
8. Brand Finance Plc. (2014): About us,
www.brandirectory.com Downloaded: April 29, 2014;
9. Brigham E., Daves P. (2012). Intermediate Financial
Management, Cengage Learning;
10. Brigham E., Houston J. (2012). Fundamentals of Financial
Management, Concise 7th Edition;
11.Brigham, Ehrhardt M. (2011). Financial Management: Theory
and Practice. Cengage Learning;
12.Clayman M., Fridson M., Troughton G. (2012). Corporate
Finance: A Practical Approach;
13.De A., Bandyopadhyay G., Chakraborty B. (2011). Application
of the Factor Analysis on the Financial Ratios and Validation of the
Results by the Cluster Analysis: An Empirical Study on the Indian
Cement Industry, Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 3,
p. 13-31;
14. Diffen (2014): About us, www.diffen.com. Downloaded:
April 29, 2014;
15.Drake P., Fabozzi F. (2012). Analysis of Financial Statements,
3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons;
74
16.Fabozzi F., Drake P. (2009). Finance: Capital Markets,
Financial Management, and Investment Management, John Wiley &
Sons;
17.FL-208 of 27.07.2010 Consolidated Financial Statements.
Available from: <
http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_162639/ (14 April
2014);
18. Fridson M., Alvarez F. (2011). Financial Statement Analysis:
A Practitioner's Guide, John Wiley & Sons;
19.Gibson Ch. (2010). Financial Reporting and Analysis: Using
Financial Accounting Information, Cengage Learning;
20. Gitman L., Joehnk M., Smart S. (2010). Fundamentals of
Investing 11th Edition, John Wiley & Sons;
21. Gitman L., Zutter C. (2011). Principles of Managerial
Finance, 13th Edition. London: Pearson PLC;
22.Helman Ch. (2013). The World's Biggest Oil Companies, 2013;
23. Iatridis G. (2010). International Financial Reporting
Standards and the quality of financial statement information,
International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 19, Issue 3, p.
193me 1;
24. Monea M. Financial ratios – Reveal how a business is doing?
$QQDOV RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\RI 3HWURúDQL(FRQRPLFV S 144;
25. Parrino R., Kidwell D., Bates Th. (2011) - Fundamentals of
Corporate Finance, 2nd Edition;
26.Parrino Robert, Kidwell David S., Bates Thomas.
Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, 2nd Edition, 2011
27. Robinson Th., Henry E., Pirie W., Broihahn M., Cope A.
(2012) - International Financial Statement Analysis, 2nd Edition;
28. Robinson, T., Greuning H., Henry E., Broihahn M. (2009) International Financial Statement Analysis, Hoboken, N.J. : John Wiley
and Sons;
29. Ross. St., Westerfield R., Jordan B. (2007) - Essentials of
&RUSRUDWH)LQDQFH)LIWK(GLWLRQ7KH0F*UDZí+LOO&RPSDQLHV
30. Sarngadharan M., Rajitha Kumar S. (2011) - Financial
Analysis for Management Decisions, PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.;
31. Shim J., Siegel J., Shim A. (2011) - Cash Budgeting and
Forecasting Cash Flow: Two Pragmatic Methods, Fourth Edition, John
Wiley & Sons;
75
32.Sinha, Financial Statement Analysis, PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.,
2009;
33.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2014)
About us, www.ei
a.gov Downloaded: April 02, 2014
34. Tracy A. (2012). Ratio Analysis Fundamentals: How 17
Financial Ratios Can Allow You to Analyse Any Business on the Planet,
Kindle Edition;
35. World Academy online (2014): About us,
www.worldacademyonline.com. Downloaded: April 29, 2014;
76
APPENDIX
77
Appendix 1
Virginia 000000
Missouri 000001
Nebraska 766788
Arizona 000000
Crude Oil Production in U.S. (Thousand Barrels per Day)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand
Barrels per Day)
East Coast (PADD 1) 20 15 20 22 26 31
Florida 525666
New York 1 1 1 1 1 1
Pennsylvania 8 8 9 9 12 13
West Virginia 6 4 5 6 7 11
Midwest (PADD 2) 546 588 690 828 1113 1382
Illinois 26 25 25 25 24 24
Indiana 555567
Kansas 108 108 111 114 119 128
Kentucky 7 7 7 6 9 8
Michigan 17 17 19 19 20 21
North Dakota 172 218 310 419 663 858
Ohio 14 13 13 13 13 16
Oklahoma 184 183 189 213 244 306
South Dakota 5 5 4 4 5 5
Tennessee 1 1 1 1 1 1
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) 2726 3112 3176 3258 3784 4396
Alabama 21 20 20 23 26 28
Arkansas 17 16 16 16 18 18
Louisiana 198 189 184 189 193 197
Mississippi 60 65 66 66 66 66
New Mexico 164 168 179 195 233 271
Texas 1109 1094 1168 1453 1983 2562
Federal Offshore--Gulf of Mexico 1157 1562 1544 1316 1265 1253
Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) 372 363 372 396 448 525
Colorado 81 83 90 108 135 176
Montana 86 76 69 66 72 80
Utah 60 63 68 72 83 96
Wyoming 145 141 146 150 158 173
West Coast (PADD 5) 1336 1275 1212 1149 1114 1114
Alaska 683 645 600 561 526 515
Alaska South 13 8 10 10 11 15
Alaska North 670 638 589 551 515 500
California 586 567 551 532 539 547
Nevada 111111
5000 5353 5471 5652 6484 7447
78
FY
2013
FY
2012
Appendix 2
FY
2011
FY
2010
17.0 16.7 15.6 16.1
21.4 21.9 23.5 22.7
FY
2009
FY
2013
FY
2012
FY
2011
FY
2010
FY
2009
FY
2013
FY
2012
FY
2011
Table 1. Results of Ratio Analysis of the Russian companies
Gazprom OAO Lukoil OAO Rosneft OAO
FY
2010
FY
2009
R ATI OS
Cash Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4
Current Ratio 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.2
Quick Ratio 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.6
15.7 16.7 19.1 15.7 13.0 13.2 15.6 16.3 15.6 10.3 N/A 18.0 16.7 16.8 20.2
10.0 11.0 13.0 10.7 9.0 9.3 11.0 11.8 11.6 7.5 N/A 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.5
12.6 13.6 16.0 13.3 11.2 11.8 14.0 14.0 14.4 9.4 N/A 13.2 12.5 12.2 13.3
Return on Common
Equity
Return on Assets
Return on Capital
10.4 12.1 15.4 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.7 14.7 13.8 10.5 N/A 12.2 11.8 9.2 9.7
Return on Invested
Capital
Ratios
Liquidity
29.9 32.1 36.6 28.3 31.5 14.9 13.8 1.3 12.1 10.8 17.8 20.2 16.4 13.0 11.9
Operating Margin
Profitability Ratios
26.1 26.9 28.2 25.7 21.7 10.3 10.5 9.3 9.5 6.6 10.7 15.6 11.9 12.2 12.0
Net Income Margin
7.6 9.1 9.9 8.0 7.5 17.3 15.5 16.0 17.1 19.1 N/A
Accounts Receivable
Turnover
21,1 17,2 15.1 13.9 15.3 16.4 15.2 10.8 8.0 12.0 31.4 30.8 29.0 36.4 53.2
48.1 40.3 36.9 45.7 48.9 21.1 23.6 22.9 21.5 19.09 N/A
Days Sales
Outstanding
Long-Term
Debt/Equity
Ratios
Activity
Long-Term
16,4 14,3 12.6 11.8 12.9 13.7 12.8 9.5 7.4 10.6 21.3 22.0 21.3 25.5 30.4
Debt/Capital
Long-Term Debt/Total
14,2 12,2 10.8 9.9 10.9 11.7 10.8 8.0 6,0 8.7 17.4 18.3 17.8 21.3 22.3
Assets
28,8 20,1 19.8 17.7 18.7 20.1 18.8 13.5 8.9 13.7 47.1 40.2 36.4 42.7 74.9
Total Debt/Equity
22,4 16,8 16.6 15.0 15.8 16.7 15.8 11.9 8.2 12.1 32.0 28.7 26.7 29.9 42.8
Total Debt/Capital
Solvency Ratios
19,4 14,2 14.1 12.6 13.4 14.3 13.3 10.0 6.7 9.9 26.2 23.9 22.3 25.0 31.5
Total Debt/Total Assets
79
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
80
FY
2012
FY
2011
Chevron Corp ConocoPhillips Exxon Mobil Corp
FY
2010
FY
Table 2. Results of Ratio Analysis of the U.S. companies
2009
R ATI OS
0.02 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.06
Cash Ratio
0.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8
Current Ratio
0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5
Quick Ratio
Ratios
Liquidity
7.5 17.4 23.8 20.3 15.0 11.7 19.3 18.6 14.9 18.3 17.3 23.7 27.3 28.0 19.2
3.0 7.4 13.6 11,8 8.8 6.4 10.9 8.0 6.2 7.8 8.4 11.4 13.0 13.5 9.6
N/A 13.2 21.6 18.7 13.5 10.6 17.4 14.3 11.2 13.2 15.9 21.6 24.5 26.5 17.3
Return on Common
Equity
Return on Assets
Return on Capital
3.2 6.5 11.4 11.8 10.1 6.6 10.0 19.4 14.5 16.8 7.0 8.9 9.5 10.7 8.3
-3.7 7.7 16.2 15.7 12.9 9.0 13.4 23.1 22.1 21.5 9.5 11.7 16.1 15.7 10.3
N/A 7.3 17.0 14.1 10.4 8.6 13.7 6.4 6.6 8.2 11.4 14.4 15.6 16.4 12.7
Return on Invested
Capital
12.0 13.7 4.5 4.9 6.3 9.5 9.9 11.1 10.4 9.9 10.5 11.4 12.2 11.4 11.5
Operating Margin
Net Income Margin
Accounts Receivable
Turnover
Days Sales
Profitability Ratios
Ratios
30.5 26.6 80.8 74.4 57.7 38.4 37.0 32.9 35.2 36.7 34.7 32.0 29.9 32.2 31.9
Outstanding
Activity
43.0 32.8 32.9 42.9 40.1 10.9 10.7 8.0 8.8 13.3 5.8 4.6 5.8 4.6 3.8
29.5 24.4 24.5 29.6 28.4 9.8 9.6 7.4 8.0 11.7 5.2 4.3 5.2 4.3 3.4
17.7 14.5 14.1 17.7 17.8 6.2 6.1 4.7 5.2 7.9 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.0
45.8 34.1 34.4 44.9 41.3 11.5 10.8 8.3 8.8 13.6 10.6 6.7 10.6 6.7 12.6
31.4 25.4 25.6 31.0 29.2 10.3 9.8 7.7 8.1 12.0 9.6 6.3 9.6 6.3 11.2
18.8 15.1 14.8 18.5 18.3 6.4 6.2 4.8 5.2 8.1 5.1 3.5 5.1 3.5 6.5
Long-Term
Debt/Equity
Long-Term
Debt/Capital
Long-Term Debt/Total
Assets
Total Debt/Equity
Total Debt/Capital
Total Debt/Total Assets
Solvency Ratios
Соседние файлы в предмете [НЕСОРТИРОВАННОЕ]