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Файл:Сравнительный анализ финансового состояния международных нефтяных компаний. Учебное пособие
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either its total capital (debt plus equity) or its equity capital. Coverage
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as interest, principal repayment, or lease payments. (Fabozzi-Drake,
2009, p.80)
Component Percentage Ratios
Component percentages involve comparing the elements in the
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with debt is the debt-to-assets ratio. (Fabozzi-Drake, 2009, p.80). The
debt ratio compares total liabilities (total debt) to total assets. It shows
the percentage of total funds obtained from creditors. Creditors would
rather see a low debt ratio because there is a greater cushion for creditor
losses if the firm goes bankrupt.
The debt-assets ratio is measure of the proportion of assets that is
financed with debt (both short-term and long-term debt):
The long-term debt-to-assets ratio is the proportion of the
company’s assets that is financed with long-term debt (Clayman –
Fridson - Troughton, 2012, p.365):
The another component ratio that is able to reveal how a company
finances its operations with debt relative to the book value of its
shareholders equity is Debt to Equity Ratio.
Still another ratio is the financial leverage ratio (equity multiplier).
The equity multiplier is a financial leverage ratio that measures the
amount of a firm's assets that are financed by its shareholders by
comparing total assets with total shareholder's equity. In other words, the
equity multiplier shows the percentage of assets that are financed or
owed by the shareholders. Conversely, this ratio also shows the level of
debt financing is used to acquire assets and maintain operations.
31
Financial leverage is a financing technique that uses borrowed
funds or preferred stock (items involving fixed financial costs) to
improve the return on an equity investment. As long as a higher rate of
return can be earned on assets than is paid for the capital used to acquire
the assets, the rate of return to owners can be increased. This is referred
to as favourable (positive) financial leverage. Financial leverage is used
in many business transactions, especially where real estate and financing
by bonds or preferred stock instead of common stock are involved.
Financial leverage is concerned with the relationship between the firm’s
earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and the earnings available to
common stockholders or other owners.
The equity multiplier formula is calculated by dividing total assets
by total stockholder's equity (Clayman-Fridson-Troughton, 2012, p.
368):
The equity multiplier is a ratio used to analyse a company's debt
and equity financing strategy. A higher ratio means that more assets
were funding by debt than by equity. In other words, investors funded
fewer assets than by creditors.
The multiplier ratio is also used in the DuPont analysis to illustrate
how leverage affects a firm's return on equity. Higher multiplier ratios
tend to deliver higher returns on equity according to the DuPont
analysis.
Total leverage reflects the impact of operating and financial
leverage on the total risk of the firm (the degree of uncertainty
associated with the firm’s ability to cover its fixed-payment obligations).
Businesses earn profits by mixing their labour and management
with inputs and capital assets to produce goods for sale. The DuPont
system recognizes this recipe for profit-making and segregates it into
three distinct components or levers: (1) Earnings (or efficiency), (2)
Turnings (effective use of assets) and (3) Leverage (using debt to
multiply earnings and equity) (Bernhardt, 2010, p.2).
Figure 4 shows a graphic of the DuPont system.
32
Earnings
X
Operating
Profit Margin
Return on
Assets
X =
Return on
Equity
Asset
Turnover
Turnings
Financial
Structure
Leverage
X =
Figure 4. DuPont System (Bernhardt, 2010, p. 3)
Coverage ratios
Coverage ratios measure the ability to meet interest and other fixed
financing costs.
The ratios that compare debt to equity or debt to assets indicate the
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interest coverage ratio, also referred to as the times interest-covered
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payments associated with debt. The ratio compares the funds available
to pay interest (that is, earnings before interest and taxes) with the
interest expense (Fabozzi-Drake, 2009, p. 82):
RatiocoverageInterest
EBIT
expenseInterest
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33
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interest coverage ratio.
The debt service coverage ratio is a financial ratio that measures a
company's ability to service its current debts by comparing its net
operating income with its total debt service obligations. In other words,
this ratio compares a company's available cash with its current interest,
principle, and sinking fund obligations (Clayman-Fridson-Troughton,
2012, p.385).
The debt service coverage ratio formula is calculated by dividing
net operating income by total debt service:
The debt service coverage ratio measures a firm's ability to
maintain its current debt levels. This is why a higher ratio is always
more favourable than a lower ratio. A higher ratio indicates that there is
more income available to pay for debt servicing.
In addition to ratios, an analyst should describe the company (e.g.,
line of business, major products, major suppliers), industry information,
and major factors or influences 1. Effective use of ratios requires
looking at ratios; 2. Over time; 3.Compared with other companies in the
same line of business. 4. In the context of major events in the company
(for example, mergers or divestitures), accounting changes, and changes
in the company’s product mix.
Financial ratio analysis helps gauge the financial performance and
condition of a company through an examination of relationships among
these many financial items. A thorough financial analysis of a company
requires examining its efficiency in putting its assets to work, its
liquidity position, its solvency, and its profitability.
34
CHAPTER III. ANALYSING OIL COMPANIES
In this chapter I will present the review of the oil and gas industry
in Russia and United States, together with the description of the chosen
companies for the analysis. It continues by ratio analysis of the U.S. and
Russian companies. Four groups of ratios will be calculated for each
company. This part of thesis put forward the following hypotheses.
H1. Historical ratio values are good predictors of their own future
values so ratio analysis is useful in predicting future performance of
Russian and US firms in the oil and gas industry.
H2: The usefulness of certain ratios in the oil and gas industry is
different in the US and in Russia.
3.1. Overview of the industry
Leaders of oil imports now are U.S. (about 11.3 million
barrels/day) and the European Union (about 8.6 million barrels/day).
Exports leaders are Saudi Arabia - 8.7 million barrels/day and Russia
about 4.9 million barrels of day.
The price situation on the world oil market in 2013 remained
favourable for both producers and consumers of oil. Oil price Brent was
above $ 100 per barrel, but did not rise above $ 120 per barrel. At the
same time North American WTI oil for more than three consecutive
years is greatly inferior to the price of North Sea oil Brent.
On average for the twelve months 2013 Brent oil price was $ 108.5
per barrel, or 2.8% lower than the same period in 2012. However, the
North American oil WTI during the same time increased by 4.2% to $
98.0 per barrel. This is due to the increasing demand in the U.S., which
discovered of a number of oil and they increased supply to refineries on
the Gulf Coast.
During the 2013 year the price of oil had been fluctuated and
reached maximum values in the third quarter - $ 117.2 per barrel for
Brent crude oil and $ 110.6 for oil WTI (Figure 5).
The main factors influencing for dynamics of oil prices in 2013
were political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, the
continued rapid growth in demand for raw materials from China, the
economic recovery in the U.S. and the complexity in the Europe
economics. (Analytical Bulletin “Oil and gas extraction and refining
industries: TrendVDQG)RUHFDVWV´ʋ5HVXOWV
Global supplies rose by 600 kb/d in February to 92.81 mb/d. Total
non-OPEC supplies grew by 1.3 mb/d in 2013 and are expected to
35
increase by a further 1.7 in 2014, the highest rate of growth since at least
the early 1990s, driven primarily by the US and Canada. Russia, China
and Brazil will contribute.
Global oil demand growth of around 1.4 is forecast for 2014, to
92.7 mb/d, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Emerging
markets, despite their recent volatility, are forecast to provide the
majority of this growth, with non-OECD Asia accounting for roughly
half of the gain.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
WTI
Brent
(The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2014) About us, www.eia.gov. Downloaded: April 02, 2014)
The greatest increase in global oil production in 2013 provided
U.S. Government data shows that U.S. crude oil production for 2013
reached its highest levels since 1989, averaging 7.5 million billion
barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration reports that
crude oil production averaged 967,000 barrels per day, or 15 percent,
higher in 2013 than in 2012, the highest production level in 24 years.
(The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2014) About us,
www.eia.gov Downloaded: April 29, 2014)
U.S. crude oil production gains were geographically concentrated
in Texas and North Dakota, which together accounted for 83% of U.S.
production growth (Appendix 1 and Table 2) (The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) (2014) About us, www.eia.gov
Downloaded: April 02, 2014). Production in the Eagle Ford formation in
South Texas reached an estimated 1.22 million bbl/d in December 2013.
Production from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana
36
Figure 5. Price of oil ($ for barrel)
averaged 0.9 million bbl/d in 2013 and reached 1 million in November
2013. Other states with significant production increases included
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Colorado. (The U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) (2014) About us, www.eia.gov Downloaded:
April 29, 2014)
Table 2. - Crude Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Date
2000 89 1211
2001 87 1162
2002 84 1112
2003 81 1098
2004 85 1073
2005 98 1076
2006 109 1075
2007 124 1072
2008 172 1109
2009 218 1094
2010 310 1168
2011 419 1453
2012 663 1983
2013 858 2562
(The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2014) About us, www.eia.gov Downloaded: April 29, 2014)
North Dakota Field
Production of Crude Oil
Texas Field
Production of Crude Oil
According to Rosstat, oil with gas condensate in Russia in 2013
amounted to 522.9 million tons, up 1.1% or 6.1 million tons more than
in 2012 (Figure 6). Under the version of the Ministry of Energy, the
volume of production was in 2013, 523.5 million tons, while the growth
in the annual comparison - by 1.1%, or 5.5 million tons.
Positive dynamics of production was secured deposits in Eastern
Siberia and in the south of the Tyumen region. In addition, the increase
in production is due to technological measures, to expand on some old
oil fields. In August 2013 began to develop Trebs and Titov, which until
the end of the year it was produced 291 thousand tons. In addition, in
late December launched Prirazlomnoe field on the Pechora Sea shelf.
Among the oil-producing regions the highest growth rates in 2013
was recorded in Eastern Siberia - in Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk Region and
Yakutia Resublike (Sakha) (Table 3). Also in 2013 was increased
production in the Yamal-Nenets through the development
Yurkharovskoye and Samburgskoye condensate fields by company
37
“Novatek”. In 2014, production growth in the region will continue due
to the gradual development Novoportovskoye field by company
Gazprom Neft”. In 2014 year in this field will expect to produce about
500 tons. Of the Regions, which reduced production, it should be noted
Nenets AO.
Extraction of oil and gas condensate (mill. t.)
530
520
510
500
490
480
470
460
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 6. Extraction of oil and gas condensate (mill. t.) in Russia
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Table 3. Dynamics of oil in Russia's regions (%)
Regions 2013/2012 2012/2011
Khanty-Mansiysk 98.0 98.4
Yamal-Nenets 105.8 102.0
The Republic of Tatarstan 100.5 100.5
Orenburg region. 100.4 100.0
Krasnoyarsk Territory 117.2 121.6
Republic of Bashkortostan 103.3 102.9
Samara region. 103.7 100.9
Perm Krai 102.8 104.8
Komi Republic 100.7 102.6
Sakhalin region. 98.5 92.4
Nenets Autonomous Okrug 95.9 88.9
Tomsk region. 95.3 103.0
Irkutsk region. 112.3 152.9
Udmurtia 100.5 100.7
Republic of Yakutia (Sakha) 112.3 121.5
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38
3.2. Information about companies
In the thesis six oil and gas Russian and U.S. companies are
analysed. Those were selected based on their size to include the biggest
firms from both countries.
3.2.1. Russian oil and gas companies
3.2.1.1. Gazprom Neft
"Gazprom Neft" - a vertically integrated oil company. Main
activities: exploration and development of oil and gas, marketing of
produced raw materials and the production and marketing of petroleum
products. Proved hydrocarbon reserves classification SPE (PRMS)
company is 1.34 billion tons of oil equivalent (CE), which puts the
"Gazprom Neft" in line with the 20 largest oil companies in the world.
The structure of "Gazprom Neft" includes more than 70 oilproducing, refining and marketing companies in Russia, CIS and far
abroad. The company processes about 80% of its oil. "Gazprom Neft" by
volume of oil refining is among the three largest companies in Russia
and by volume of oil production is fourth place.
Table 4. Basic indicators of “Gazprom Neft”
(Annual reports 2011-2013)
Data Highlights FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Production (MBOE/Day)
BOE - Production per Share 1 Yr Growth
Avg. Reserve Life (Years)
Reserve Replacement Ratio
Financial Highlights (MLN, USD)
Revenue
EBITDA
Trailing 12M EBITDA Margin
Net Income (Losses)
Trailing 12M Earnings Per Share
Price/T12M Earnings per Share
Dividends per Share
Dividend Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield
9189.7 9011.0 9060.0
6.8 -1.9 0.5
36.8 36.4 37.1
161.3 -3.1 68.6
158100.5 153654.3 164932.6
67169.9 54581.2 65154.4
42.5 35.5 39.5
44562.5 39472.6 35791.0
1.9 1.7 1.6
3.0 2.7 2.8
0.3 0.2 0.2
16.3 11.6
5.2 4.2 4.9
N/A
39
Gazprom Neft operates in the following regions of Russia: KhantyMansi and Yamal -Nenets AO, Tomsk, Omsk, Orenburg regions. The
main processing facilities are located in Omsk, Moscow and Yaroslavl
regions, as well as in Serbia. In addition, "Gazprom Neft" implements
projects related to production in Iraq, Venezuela and other countries.
Products "Gazprom oil" are exported to more than 50 countries and sold
throughout Russia and abroad through an extensive network of own
sales companies. Currently, the network of filling stations has nearly
1,750 stations in Russia, CIS and Europe.
The largest shareholder of "Gazprom Neft" is "Gazprom" (95.68
%). The remaining shares are in free float. Basic indicators are shown in
Table 4.
3.2.1.2. Lukoil
OAO "LUKOIL" is one of the largest vertically integrated oil and
gas companies, providing 2.1% of world oil production. LUKOIL is
implementing projects for the exploration and production of oil and gas
in 13 countries. Proved hydrocarbon reserves of «LUKOIL» are 17.3
billion barrels. 90.6% of the Company's proved reserves and 89.8 % of
the production of marketable hydrocarbons account on Russia. The
company is also involved in projects for the oil and gas production in
five countries. Most of the work is concentrated in the four federal
districts – Northwest, Volga, Ural and Southern. Main resource base and
the main oil Productions Company is Western Siberia, which accounts
for 44% of proved reserves and 49% of production. International
projects represent 9.4% of proved reserves and 10.2% of the production
of marketable hydrocarbons. LUKOIL owns oil refineries in six
countries (including CDD ISAB and Zeeland). Total capacity of the
refineries of the LUKOIL is 77.1 million tons / year. In Russia the
company owns four refineries and two mini -refineries, as well as four
gas processing plants. In addition, the composition of the Russian assets
"LUKOIL" includes two petrochemical enterprises.
Data and Financial Highlights are shown in Table 5.
40
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