Exclavity under globalization. Selected works
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Population and social groups in the transition economy of Kaliningrad
positive for Kaliningrad people are France and Finland (average score is about 1,8). People from profile A have the best image of France or Sweden, as profile Вhas the best image of Belarus (Table 2).
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Table 2 |
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"Do you think Kaliningrad oblast belongs to....?" (% to those asked) |
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Russian |
Baltic en- |
both to RF |
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Branches |
and Baltic |
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Federation |
semble |
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ensemble |
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Total |
48.6 |
17.1 |
33.9 |
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By sex: |
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male |
48.4 |
18.4 |
33.2 |
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female |
48.7 |
16.1 |
34.5 |
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By age: |
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less than 29 |
41.9 |
25.2 |
32.9 |
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30 — 49 years old |
45.5 |
18.3 |
35.4 |
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over 50 |
56.2 |
10.8 |
32.7 |
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By education: |
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high |
41.8 |
24.7 |
32.3 |
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middle |
44.4 |
17.0 |
38.1 |
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low |
55.4 |
14.8 |
29.9 |
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By settlement type |
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Kaliningrad city residents |
43.7 |
19.6 |
36.2 |
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other town residents |
50.9 |
19.2 |
29.6 |
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rural area residents |
54.5 |
8.5 |
36.5 |
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Concerning the geo-politic identification of Kaliningrad, about half of the respondents express the feeling that Kaliningrad oblast belongs to the Russian Federation and another 34% that Kaliningrad belongs both to the RF and Baltic ensemble. Only 17% think that it is closer to the Baltic ensemble. This shows that socalled separatist opinions cannot find support in Kaliningrad. As the table shows, the idea of RF belonging is typical of profile B, whereas the Baltic belonging is close to profile A. Moreover, more than 80% of Kaliningrad oblast residents think that Russia and
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Exclavity under globalization
Belarus should join as soon as possible and that they will gain from that fact. However, this can be associated with an opening to the West, because a large minority (40%) of the respondents, close to profile A, considers that a larger place should be given to Western experts in Kaliningrad.
Changes in the geopolitical situation of the Kaliningrad region triggered off peculiar phenomena in the circles of the local intelligentsia. On the one hand, part of them took a pro-German position, becoming a source and a mouthpiece for different sorts of projects to extend Germany's control over the region. Such an intensive ideological and cultural pro-German propaganda gave strength to and shaped the structure of those right-wing nationalist forces, which preached isolationism, total mistrust of everything foreign, were strictly oriented to "indigenously Russian values" - something that sounds somewhat strange in the light of the modern position of the region and the history of its assimilation in Soviet times. In opposition to the existing conditions, nationalists and communists twice made up common political structures in the region: the «Russian Frontier Bloc (1993-1994) and a local branch of the «Peoples' Patriotic Forces of Russia» (from 1996). These tendencies are also stimulated by a growing immigration into the region, which reached its peak in 1994 when the increase of the population reached 2% of the number of the inhabitants of the region (18 000 persons). In 1995 it dropped to 8 000-10 000 people. Immigration also helped strengthen the region's agriculture. In the period of 1989-1996 25 000 people, largely from the republics of Central Asia, settled in the countryside. From a strategic standpoint immigration in a way compensated the falling birth rate and growing death rate, supplied the region with a highly qualified and motivated workforce. At the same time such an uncontrolled immigration generates a series of problems. On the one hand, it is crucial to find new jobs, which is rather complicated in the conditions of high unemployment. On the other hand, a steady inflow of migrants with different backgrounds increases cultural and, consequently, ethnic tension in the region. The young population of the regional centre - Kaliningrad - reacts most acutely to the introduction of people bearing different traditions. From 1992 to 1994 the
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Population and social groups in the transition economy of Kaliningrad
number of respondents among young Kaliningraders stating their unfriendly attitude to other ethnic group grew from 25% up to 42%. Here peoples from the Caucasus bear the palm: 48% of the respondents stated their negative attitude to them; 7% dislike the Gypsies and the Baltic peoples (Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians). For the last 5 years the number of ethnic Germans in the region have risen 5 times - up to 5.6 thousand people, the number of Armenians - 2.5 times (5 thousand people), the number of Azerbaijani grew up to 3.5 thousand people. It is obvious that the native and immigrant populations will have to overcome many obstacles on the path to harmonising their relations and integration into a peaceful community.
The process of assimilation in the Kaliningrad region was influenced by two opposite tendencies: on the one hand, the formation of the "Soviet" socium (this due to the lack of a local Russian cultural background turned the region into the only completely Soviet - in the cultural sense of the word - region of the USSR), and on the other hand by the active introduction of western cultural patterns and styles in the home environment, which was stipulated both by close relations with neighbouring Lithuania, the most prowestern of the Soviet republics, and the economic specialisation of the region (thanks to working in the fishing and the transport fleet, one fourth of the regional population one way or another was able to cross the borders of the USSR and had relatively high earnings and access to the standards of the western world). These two opposite tendencies are also reflected in the sociological types В and A.
Opinions about transition and economic behaviours
In comparison with a range of Russian regions the population of the Kaliningrad region adapts to new socio-economic conditions more successfully, reacts to changes in the environment (market conditions, legislature, etc.) quite sensitively, adequately perceives the intensification of economic processes (investment, new economic possibilities, creation of new manufactures), exhibits a rather high economic activity. From the point of view of
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political preferences it is impossible to call the Kaliningrad region "red" in any way, although democratic, free market, liberal values are not dominant here. Nevertheless, the region is "advanced" - in the sense of perception and realisation of market reforms much greater than many other Russian regions, so, to some extent, it is prepared for their new stage of development.
The global assessment about transition is a basic feature which organises many economic and political attitudes. Half of respondents consider the transition will last from 5 to 20 years, the other half considers it will last from 20 to 50 years and more. The first group is close to profile A whereas the second group, less optimistic, fits in quite well with profile B. The assessment about the change since 1992 is rather moderated because 70% of the respondents consider that their own situation has not changed and think so all the more as they are closer to profile B. Two minorities are opposed, 11% consider things are better and 18% worse: the former fit in with A profile whereas the latter are intermediate: urban residents under 50 with a middle or higher education, and with an average level of durable goods. Part of the members of the former nomenklatura belongs to this group. The opinions about personal situations in the next five years are better distributed. 36% of the respondents are still sceptical and expect no change: they belong to all social groups but are older. The two other groups are quite opposed, the optimistic ones fit in perfectly with profile A and the pessimistic ones with profile B. Women are more pessimistic than men. As for the future of Russia, the distribution of opinions is a bit more pessimistic - which is a standard feature - but the profiles are similar.
In a historical time of overall change, it is interesting to know what remains still important for the population of Kaliningrad. Our survey shows two answers. The first question deals with the degree of confidence in the institutions (in a broad sense) organising social life. Only two national institutions get the majority of confidence (full or relative confidence) from Kaliningrad's population: the church (60%) and the army (56%). The population of
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Population and social groups in the transition economy of Kaliningrad
the region expresses their confidence in the Governor (56%) and the Mayor of Kaliningrad (54%). Some institutions are characterised by decreasing confidence. The first group (41%-43%) includes the regional mass media, the regional Duma and the Constitutional Court. Other political (Government, the Duma, the President), legislative (the police, courts), economic (banks) or social (trade unions) institutions fuel even more mistrust.
The weakness of political institutions in Russia is clearly shown in Kaliningrad, and is a big problem for expressing interests and representing preferences. The confidence in the mass media in the Kaliningrad region is stronger than expected. Another question concerns the advantages and rights given to the population of the region. The welfare state culture remains dominant; the social advantages have the first rank: subsidies for health care, housing and culture. Family policy measures come second together with the right to vote and the state ownership of land. Far behind are the socio-economic freedoms: the right to entrepreneurship and to go on strike, and in the last position we find socio-economic institutions, parties and trade unions.
The analysis of behaviour will help identify more precisely the economic culture of the Kaliningrad population. All respondents living in different Russian regions prefer a strong role of the state in the economic development of the country. Respondents were asked to evaluate the role of the state in economic development on a 10 digit scale where 1 means that the state should exercise total economic control and 10 means that the state should never interfere in the economic life. The surveys showed that the average scores were quite close in different regions, starting from 3,28 in the Voronezh oblast, 3,47 in the Krasnoyarsky kray; most liberal people live in the Leningrad oblast. The Kaliningrad oblast citizens are less liberal - the average score is 3,37. Profile A fits in perfectly with liberal attitudes and profile В with the contrary; however for any group the average score for the State economic policy remains on the "strong State" side. The opinions of the Kaliningrad citizens about the objectives of the State economic policy are very
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Exclavity under globalization
consistent with the idea of a strong State in the economy. Choosing from the list of seven possible aims most of the respondents named "stimulate enterprise investments" as the main aim twice more than "increase social care", as in the other Russian regions. As one can expect, people of profile В tend to support the paternalistic idea and people close to profile A are more interested in the economic development of the oblast. This similarity with other regions and the orientation towards economic logic is confirmed by the question about the main objectives of industrial managers in the period of economic transition. The diagram shows similarities of answers in different regions.
Fig. 1
Almost two thirds of the respondents in the Kaliningrad survey answered that industrial managers should take care of business problems in the first place: lower product costs, make profits and find new products to meet the competition challenge. Moreover, people reflect the need for restructuring the economy, among three business tasks mentioned above, they give the highest priority to the promotion of new products. The similarity of economic behaviours among the Russian regions, and despite different identity and geo-political opinions, shows the strength and the effectiveness of the process of sovietisation in Kaliningrad. It also shows
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Population and social groups in the transition economy of Kaliningrad
that the economic culture in Kaliningrad is not more conservative despite the former military orientation of the oblast. Moreover, contrary to a widespread idea, opinions about the SEZ of Kaliningrad are mainly positive (53%) or neutral (37%). Only 5% have negative opinions. Positive opinions are characterised by profile A and the others by profile B, with one difference : positive opinions are better represented in villages, and neutral or negative ones in cities, as if the negative effects of the SEZ were heavier in cities.
The opinions about the economic development potential of Kaliningrad will help determine how the population perceives the economic identity of the territory. Three types of profile answer the question about the leading branches for regional development. A first profile concerns the first branches: the fish industry (82%) and agriculture (65%). This profile is rather blurred, showing a kind of consensus; however it is closer to older people and villagers. The second type of answers is typical of profile A: it supports port services (62%) and tourism (44%). The third type of answers is shared by all categories: it concerns mainly the amber industry (59%) and, with much lower scores, high tech and ship building branches. Another question is what the main development resources of Kaliningrad are. In all respondent groups "access to the sea" is considered to be of the main advantage, slightly more for profile A. On average "natural resources" is the second economic priority with a closeness to profile B. The third resource is "closeness to EU", typical of profile A (for young people it is even the second one), and, with the same score, "natural environment" without a specific profile. The strategic position of the oblast or the quality or price of work forces does not seem to be of great value for the oblast's development in the public opinion.
Many interesting conclusions can be drawn. The economic identity of Kaliningrad is first based on the sea: an opening to the sea, the fish industry, port services, and secondly based on nature: agriculture, amber and the natural resources, the natural environment. Another conclusion is that for many branches or resources, there is a kind of agreement among the population: a full agree-
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Exclavity under globalization
ment for the amber industry and natural environment, a relative agreement for the fish industry, agriculture, the opening to the sea, natural resources. However, beside this consensual basis, new approaches of development appear well connected to profile A: port services, tourism, closeness to EU. One opinion about resources, less shared, is connected to profile B: the strategic military resource. This will help to understand the debates on Kaliningrad's development. All in all, in spite of widespread opinion about the great specificity of Kaliningrad oblast's position in Russia, the basic economic attitudes of its citizens appears to be very similar to those of other provincial Russian oblast citizens. Much more influence do social and demographic characteristics have and their influence is common or very similar to other types of society.
Social groups and actors
The electorate as a social entity. Dynamics of behaviour
Let us look at the data in the table to determine the Kaliningrad oblast's position among other Russian regions in terms of the population's political views.
The data from the last Duma elections show that the political attitudes of the people living in these four Russian oblasts are rather different. Kaliningrad oblast citizens are somewhere in-between "communist oriented" Voronezh oblast and the "new democratic" orientation of Leningrad oblast' citizens: communist support is rather strong in Kaliningrad oblast though there are also quite a number of those who voted for "Yabloko" and "Democratic choice of Russia"; also rather popular was the Congress of Russian communities. How was this electorate structured?
The electorate as a special social entity with its own behaviour started to come about in the Soviet society from the moment of carrying out the first free elections in 1989-1990. By October 6, 1996 the number of voters in the region reached 714 960 people. Today the electorate has become a unique socio-political force capable of influencing the disposition of forces inside the ruling elite.
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Population and social groups in the transition economy of Kaliningrad
An economically active population as a social group
The stake of the initiators of reforms in Russia on the speedy emergence of the middle class interested in further reforming the socio-economic system has proved completely inadequate. It is possible to name three reasons for that:
-at first, the confiscation of all the savings of the population and enterprises during the first months of 1992 as a result of liberating prices without any compensation for bank deposits deprived the population of a possibility to obtain any kind of state property in the process of privatisation;
-secondly, for six years the reformers have failed to create conditions for the development of private entrepreneurship, of small and medium private enterprises, especially in the sphere of production;
-thirdly, a post-Communist, sharply negative attitude to private economic initiatives, especially strong in rural and scarcely populated areas, simply does not allow it to go beyond the limits of large cities.
Thus, small and medium business is forming in extremely complicated conditions. It is possible to suppose at present that the problem of creating a middle class should be connected not with the possession of property, not with the creation of a privileged group of hired workers (from the experience of the West), but rather with the creation of a social institutions related to business and economic activity. Owing to the above-listed characteristics of the Kaliningrad region population, both native and immigrant, this direction can be considered as the most prospective from the viewpoint of shaping up an economically active population as a special social group, a real economic actor and partner in interaction.
The following indirect data describing the development of the population's economic activity in the region is also worth mentioning:
-today about 60 000 people are engaged in the small business sector,
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Exclavity under globalization
-around 20 000 enterprises are registered, out of them 1,267 are joint ventures with foreign partners;
-the overall contribution of small enterprises to the GDP
(Gross Domestic Product) of the region exceeds 20%;
-only in Kaliningrad in private inter-city passenger transportation services 1 500 people are employed;
-in 1997 1 100 persons submitted their income tax returns for more than 100 million roubles, and 100 people - for more than 300 million roubles;
-all in all 35 000 tax returns were handed in over the region.
It is necessary to note that nowadays the basic direction in the development of small business is trade and the sphere of services, while the social and economic potential of the region for its development is quite significant. Taking into account the orientation of our programme to promoting information and knowledgeintensive technologies, it is necessary to bear in mind that the general direction of their realisation should target an independent, economically active population, and in view of the long-term character of the programme (till the year 2010) people, who are capable of such work, should be selected and encouraged in the framework of special educational programmes even today. Besides, the business centre and incubator of small and medium enterprises should take into account the social and political aspects of the development of this direction. Apart from the electorate, which has already developed and in interaction with the ruling elite, an economically active population is the only social group potentially capable of self-organisation, having its own explicit interests and certain skills of defending them in a struggle with rather serious opponents.
In connection with what has been said, the support to this social group, entering the elaborated concept of development quite nicely, should be more thorough, taking into account long-term social, economic and political consequences.
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