Арзуманян Р., Сложное мышление и сеть парадигма нелинейности и среда безопасности 21 века

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǮȖȔȐȕȐ. ǮȖȔȐȕȐ ȊȍȘȐȓ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȥȚȖ ȕȈțȒȈ Ȑ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈ ȍȍ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ. Ƕȕ ȊȊȖȌȐȚ șȊȖȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȔ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ț DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ. «ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ – ȥȚȖ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȕȈ ȒȈȘȚȍ Ȑ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊșȍȋȖ ȚȍȈȚȘȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǫȘȈȕȌ-ȚȈȒȚȐȒȈ – ȥȚȖ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȑșȒ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȍ ȉȖȧ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȐ șȖ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȕȍȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȕȈ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ, Ȉ ȕȍ ȕȈ ȒȈȘȚȍ. dzȖȋȐșȚȐȒȈ (ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȍ) ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ Ȑ ȔȍȘȖȗȘȐȧȚȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ Ȋȕȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ Ȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȓȈȕȖȊ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȘȍȠȈȍȚ, ȋȌȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ, ȓȖȋȐșȚȐȒȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȌȖșȚȈȊȒț ȊȖȑșȒ Ȓ ȚȍȈȚȘț ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ, ȋȘȈȕȌ-ȚȈȒ- ȚȐȒȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ șȗȖșȖȉȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȐȓ»1. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ǮȖȔȐȕȐ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȏȈȔȒȕțȚȖȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȜȍȘț Ȑ ȖȘȐȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȕȈ ȚȍȈȚȘ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ. ǭȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȓ ȕȈ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȒȈȔȗȈȕȐȧ. ǮȖȔȐȕȐ ȟȈșȚȖ ȒȘȐȚȐȒțȦȚ ȏȈ ȋȍȖȔȍȚȘȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȝ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȈȝ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȣȔ. ǵȈ ȗȍȘȊȖȔ ȥȚȈȗȍ Ȗȕ ȊȣȉȐȘȈȍȚ ȚȍȈȚȘ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȍ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȕȈ ȕȍȔ. ǯȈȚȍȔ șȓȍȌțȍȚ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȖȗȖȘȕȣȝ ȗțȕȒȚȖȊ, ȏȖȕ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȚȖȟȍȒ ȕȈșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ. dzȐȕȐȧ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȓȐȕȐȍȑ ȖȚ ȖȗȖȘȕȣȝ ȗțȕȒȚȖȊ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȐȍ ȚȖȟȒȐ Ȓ ȚȖȟȒȈȔ ȕȈșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ2. ǸȧȌ ȐȌȍȑ Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ǮȖȔȐȕȐ ȊȖȠȍȓ Ȋ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ǹȀǨ.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǴȖȓȤȚȒȍ. ǼȍȓȤȌȔȈȘȠȈȓ ǴȖȓȤȚȒȍ, șȣȋȘȈȊȠȐȑ ȊȈȎȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȐȐ ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȐ, ȗȐșȈȓ Ȋ «ǰȕșȚȘțȒȞȐȧȝ Ȍȓȧ ȊȣșȠȐȝ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȐȘȖȊ

(Instructions for Superior Commanders), ȟȚȖ «șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍ-

ȕȐȐ ȏȌȘȈȊȖȋȖ șȔȣșȓȈ Ȓ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǺȘțȌȕȖșȚȤ ȓȍȎȐȚ Ȋ ȍȍ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȐ…»3. ǼȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ, Ȗȕ ȗȍȘȍȜȘȈȏȐȘțȍȚ șȓȖȊȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ, ȟȚȖ «Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȋșȍ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȟȘȍȏȊȣȟȈȑȕȖ ȗȘȖșȚȖ, ȕȖ Ȑȏ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȕȍ șȓȍȌțȍȚ, ȟȚȖȉȣ Ȋșȍ ȉȣȓȖ ȉȣ Ȑ ȟȘȍȏȊȣȟȈȑȕȖ ȓȍȋȒȖ»4.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȖȘȉȍȚȚț. ǩȘȐȚȈȕșȒȐȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚ ǬȎțȓȐȈȕ DzȖȘȉȍȚȚ (Julian Corbett) ȗȘȐȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȍȚșȧ șȐșȚȍȔȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȍȍ ȒȈȒ «ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȐȓȣ ș țȟȍȚȖȔ Ȟȍȓȍȑ». Ƕȕ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȊȖȌȐȚ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȖȟȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȣȍ ȞȍȓȐ: «ǩȖȓȤȠȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȌȍȓȖ șȖ șȒȘȣȚȣȔȐ (ȕȍȊȣȘȈȎȍȕȕȣȔȐ) ȞȍȓȧȔȐ, ȔȈȓȍȕȤȒȈȧ – ș ȗȍȘȊȖȖȟȍȘȍȌȕȣȔȐ»5. Ǫ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȗȖȌ «ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ șȚȘȈ-

1 Jomini, Antoine Henri Baron de. The Art of War, Trans. G. H. Mendell, W. P. Craighill, 1862, reprinted by The West Point Military Library series, Thomas E. Griess and Jay Luvass (eds.), Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1971, p. 62.

2 Bartholomees, A Survey of the Theory of Strategy, pp. 13-14.

3 Caemmerer, Rudolf von. The Development of Strategical Science During the 19th Century. Trans. by Karl von Donat, London: Hugh Rees, Ltd., 1905, pp. 276.

4 Clausewitz, On War, p. 178.

5 Corbett, Julian S. Some Principles of Maritime Strategy. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1988, p. 308.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȚȍȋȐȍȑ» ȗȖȕȐȔȈȦȚ «șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ», ȗȖȌ ȔȈȓȖȑ – «ȖȗȍȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȍ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ». ǪȈȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐȌȍȑ DzȖȘȉȍȚȚȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȐ ȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȏȈȌȍȑșȚȊțȍȚ «Ȋșȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȕȈȞȐȐ Ȍȓȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǶȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȐșȒțșșȚȊȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȖȔ Ȑ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȍ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȔȖȘșȒȐȍ șȐȓȣ ȒȈȒ ȟȈșȚȐ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȐȓȣ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȍ ȊȔȍșȚȍ; ȖȕȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ»1. Ǭȓȧ DzȖȘȉȍȚȚȈ ȊȈȎȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȔȖȘșȒȐȝ șȐȓ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ Ȋ Ȑȝ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȚȤ ȋȖșȗȖȌșȚȊȖ ȕȈ ȔȖȘȍ, ȕȖ Ȋ șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ șȖȉȣȚȐȧ ȕȈ șțȠȍ. Ƕȕ ȊȍȘȐȓ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȔȖȘșȒȐȍ șȐȓȣ ȘȍȌȒȖ ȗȖȉȍȎȌȈȦȚ Ȋ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȕȖ șȖȏȌȈȦȚ ȗȘȍȌȗȖșȣȓȒȐ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ. ǪȏȋȓȧȌȣ DzȖȘȉȍȚȚȈ ȗȖȓțȟȐȓȐ șȊȖȍ ȖȚȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȔȖȘșȒȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȍ ǹȀǨ2.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǫȈȘȚț. dzȐȌȌȍȓ ǫȈȘȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ «ȐșȒțșșȚȊȖ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ șȘȍȌșȚȊ Ȍȓȧ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ»3. Ƕȕ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȈȍȚ ȘȈȏȊȍȘȕțȚȖȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ: «ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ țșȗȍȝȈ, Ȋ ȗȍȘȊțȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ Ȑ Ȋ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ, ȖȚ ȒȈȓȤȒțȓȧȞȐȐ Ȑ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȟȍȓȍȑ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ. ǾȍȓȤ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈ ȖȉȡȐȔ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔ. ǹȘȍȌșȚȊȈ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȍ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ Ȑȏ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȖȟȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, șȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȦ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ, ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȖȗȖȘȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣ ȞȍȕȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȐ ȥȚȐȝ ȗȘȖȔȍȎțȚȖȟȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ – ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȓȐ ȖȕȐ șȗȖșȖȉșȚȊțȦȚ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȦ ȒȖȕȍȟȕȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ ȐȓȐ Ȏȍ șȗȖșȖȉșȚȊțȦȚ ȊșȗȖȔȖȋȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț țșȗȍȝț. ǰȏȉȣȚȖȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȕȈșȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȌȕȣȔ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȌȍȜȐȞȐȚ4.

ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ǫȈȘȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ șȒȖȘȍȍ Ȗ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȘȖȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, Ȋșȍ Ȏȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȧ. «ǺȖȟȕȖ ȚȈȒ Ȏȍ, ȒȈȒ ȚȈȒȚȐȒȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȕȈ ȕȐȎȕȍȔ țȘȖȊȕȍ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȐȎȕȐȔ țȘȖȊȕȍȔ “ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ”. ȇȊȓȧȧșȤ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ șȐȕȖȕȐȔȖȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌȐȚ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȑ ȉțȌțȟȐ ȖȚȓȐȟȕȖȑ ȖȚ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ țȗȘȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȍȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȔȐ, ȚȍȘȔȐȕ “ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ” ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ “ȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ” (policy in execution). Ǭȓȧ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ “ȊȣșȠȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ” ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȐ ȐȓȐ ȋȘțȗȗȣ ȕȈȞȐȑ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ – Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȝ ȜțȕȌȈȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȑ»5.

ǬȈȓȍȍ ǫȈȘȚ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ: «ǫȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ Ȑ ȘȈȏȊȐȊȈȚȤ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȓȦȌșȒȐȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ ȕȈȞȐȐ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȉȖȍȊȣȍ șȓțȎȉȣ. ǴȖ-

1 Ibid, p. 308.

2 Bartholomees, A Survey of the Theory of Strategy, p. 35. 3 Liddell Hart, Strategy, p. 335.

4 Ibid, p. 322.

5 Ibid, p. 335.

182

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ, ȗȖȌȕȧȚȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȖȋȖ ȌțȝȈ ȕȈȘȖȌȈ ȟȈșȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȚȖȓȤ Ȏȍ ȊȈȎȕȣȔȐ, ȒȈȒ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȕȐȍ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȣȔȐ ȜȖȘȔȈȔȐ șȐȓȣ. ǫȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȘȍȋțȓȐȘțȍȚ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ șȐȓȣ ȔȍȎȌț șȓțȎȉȈȔȐ Ȑ ȔȍȎȌț șȓțȎȉȈȔȐ Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȖȑ.

ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȐȓȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊșȍȋȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȚȤ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤ șȐȓț ȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊȖȋȖ, ȌȐȗȓȖȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ, ȒȖȔȔȍȘȟȍșȒȖȋȖ Ȑ, ȕȍ Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȦȦ ȖȟȍȘȍȌȤ, ȥȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȌȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȍȓȧ ȖșȓȈȉȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. <…> DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȖȑȕȖȑ, ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȔȖȚȘȐȚ ȌȈȓȤȠȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ – ȕȈ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȑ ȔȐȘ. ǶȕȈ ȕȍ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ, ȕȖ ȚȈȒ ȘȍȋțȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑȝ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȐȏȉȍȎȈȚȤ ȕȈȕȍșȍȕȐȧ ȊȘȍȌȈ ȉțȌțȡȍȔț șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ ȔȐȘȈ, ȍȋȖ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖȞȊȍȚȈȕȐȦ. ǷȓȖȝȖȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȔȐȘȈ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȍȐȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȡȍȍ Ȓ ȕȖȊȣȔ ȊȖȑȕȈȔ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȖ ȚȍȔ ȜȈȒȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ, Ȋ ȖȚȓȐȟȐȍ ȖȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, șȜȍȘȈ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑșȊȖȍȑ ȟȈșȚȐ terra incognita, ȖȎȐȌȈȦȡȍȑ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȐȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ»1.

ǵȍșȔȖȚȘȧ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ Ȋ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȚȖȟȒȈ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ ǫȈȘȚȈ ȉȓȐȏȒȈ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈȔ. ǪȊȖȌȐȔȣȍ ȐȔ ȚȍȘȔȐȕȣ Ȑ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȖșȕȖȊȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȋȖ ȒȈȒ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ (ȒȖșȊȍȕȕȣȑ) ȗȖȌȝȖȌ. «ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȚȤ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ ȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ. ǭȍ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚȤ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖșȚȤ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȧ, Ȑ ȖȕȈ ȌȖȉȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȥȚȖȑ ȞȍȓȐ ȟȍȘȍȏ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ. <…> ǽȖȚȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȗȣȚȈȚȤșȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȕȈȖȉȖȘȖȚ, ȖȉȈ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȈ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ. ǬȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȍȚ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ, Ȉ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȗȘȐȌȈȍȚ șȚȘȍȔȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȦ»2.

«DzȈȒ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ șȘȍȌșȚȊ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ

– ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ Ȋ șțȔȒȍ ȝȐȘțȘȋȈ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ șȘȍȌșȚȊ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȝ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȟȍȓȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. DzȖȋȌȈ ȐȔȍȦȚșȧ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȧȡȐȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ, ȥȚȖ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȣșȚȘȣȑ ȗțȚȤ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȒȖȋȌȈ țșȓȖȊȐȧ ȕȍȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȣ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȋȓțȗȖșȚȤȦ. <…> ǭȋȖ (ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȈ) ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȊȣȉȖȘȍ (ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ) ȗȘȐ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȣȋȖȌȕȖȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȍ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȣȍ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ. ǺȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ, ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȈȧ ȞȍȓȤ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ ȕȍ șȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȊȣȉȖȘȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ, șȒȖȓȤȒȖ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȐ ȕȈșȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȊȣȋȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȍșȓȐ ȖȕȈ șȈȔȈ ȗȖ șȍȉȍ Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȦ, ȍȍ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȍȋȖ. ǬȘțȋȐȔȐ șȓȖȊȈȔȐ, ȌȐșȓȖȒȈȞȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȞȍȓȤȦ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ»3.

1 Ibid, p. 322.

2 Ibid, p. 337.

3 Ibid, p. 339.

183

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ǪȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍ ȏȈȔȍȠȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈ șȖȏȌȈȍȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȗȘȧȔȣȔ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍȔ, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚȤ ȓȐȕȐȦ ȜȘȖȕȚȈ, ȐȓȐ ȗȖșȘȍȌșȚȊȖȔ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȍȋȖ șȐȓȈȔ ȐȓȐ ȓȐȕȐȧȔ ȒȖȔȔțȕȐȒȈȞȐȐ. ǶȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȖ ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȕȣȑ șȖșȚȈȊ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ: «ǷȘȐ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȐ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȈșȗȍȒȚȖȊ Ȕȣ ȕȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȚȍȘȧȚȤ Ȑȏ ȊȐȌț ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ, Ȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȖȉȖȐȝ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔțȦ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȘțȠȍȕȐȧ ȉȈȓȈȕșȈ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ»1. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȍȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ ǫȈȘȚȈ ȗȍȘȍȒȓȐȒȈȍȚșȧ ș ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȔ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ: «DzȖȋȌȈ Ȕȣ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȔ Ȗȉ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȐ ȕȍȗȘȐȧȚȍȓȤșȒȐȝ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ, – Ȕȣ ȥȚȖ ȕȈșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖ ȗȖȌȟȍȘȒȐȊȈȍȔ, – ȕȈș ȕȐȟȚȖ ȕȍ ȖȉȧȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȚȤ ȥȚȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȍ ȖȌȕȐȔȐ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ șȐȓȈȔȐ; Ȕȣ ȗȖȌȘȈȏțȔȍȊȈȍȔ Ȑ șȐȓȣ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȍ, ȐȉȖ ȔȖȘȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȍ șȐȓȣ ȚȍșȕȍȑȠȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ șȊȧȏȈȕȣ Ȑ ȕȍȖȚȌȍȓȐȔȣ ȖȌȕȈ ȖȚ ȌȘțȋȖȑ»2.

ǵȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ǫȈȘȚȈ ȗȖȗțȓȧȘȍȕ șȘȍȌȐ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐșȚȖȊ, Ȉ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȒȘțȋȈȝ Ȗȕ ȗȘȐȖȉȘȍȓ șȚȈȚțș ȌȖȋȔȣ. ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȐȏȖȓȧȞȐȐ șȖȏȌȈȍȚ Ȟȍȓȣȑ ȘȧȌ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ. ǵȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚ, șȚȈȚțș ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȉȣȓ ȗȖȌȕȧȚ ȌȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȍ ȚȈȒȖȋȖ ȗȍȘȍȝȖȌȈ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȧ ȚȍȘȧȍȚ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȑȏ șȊȖȐȝ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊ, Ȑ ȍȍ ȓȍȋȐȚȐȔȕȖșȚȤ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȈȕȐȧ. Ǫ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖȔ ȔȐȘȍ ȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȟȈșȚȖ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ ȍșȓȐ țȌȈȍȚșȧ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȖ ȕȈȌ șȐȓȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ.

ǷȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȍ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ, ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȏȈȔȍȠȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍ Ȑ ȗȖșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȔ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȐ ȗȖȉȍȌȣ ȉȍȏ ȊșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȧȔȖȍ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȍ ș ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ. Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȓȈȕȍ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȗȍȘȍȒȓȐȒȈȍȚșȧ ș ȜȐȓȖșȖȜȐȍȑ ǹțȕȤ-Ǿȏȣ. ǵȍ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȚ șȖȔȕȍȕȐȑ, ȟȚȖ ȏȈȔȍȠȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ ȕȈȗȈȌȈȦȡȍȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȍ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȊȔȍșȚȍ ș ȚȍȔ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȈȍȚ ȊȖȗȘȖș: ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȒȐȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȖȍ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȕȈȗȈȌȈȦȡȈȧ șȚȖȘȖȕȈ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȈȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȣȔ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȖȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȗȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȖșȐȚ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ? ǰ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍ ȕȍȗȘȧȔȖȑ ȗȖȌȝȖȌ ȊȣȋȓȧȌȐȚ ȕȍȗȖȓȕȣȔ Ȑ ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȍȕȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȘȐȧ ȗȘȧȔȣȔȐ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈȔȐ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȐȓȣ3.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǫȖȊȈȘȌț. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȈ ǴȈȑȒȓȈ ǫȖȊȈȘȌȈ (Michael Howard) ȊȣșȚȘȈȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ țșȚȘȈȠȍȕȐȐ, ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȍȕȐȐ Ȑ țȉȍȎȌȍȕȐȐ (reassurance): «ǻȉȍȎȌȍȕȐȍ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ Ȗȉȡȍȍ ȊȖșȗȘȐȧȚȐȍ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ, ȒȖȚȖ-

1 Ibid, pp. 340-341.

2 Clausewitz, On War, p. 137.

3 Bartholomees, A Survey of the Theory of Strategy, pp. 22-23.

184

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȘȖȍ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȗȍȞȐȜȐȟȕȣȔ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȒȖȑ-ȓȐȉȖ țȋȘȖȏȣ ȐȓȐ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ». Ǫ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȐȋȔȣ ȊȖȍȕȕțȦ șȐȓț ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ țșȚȘȈȠȍȕȐȧ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊ, ȗȘȐȕțȎȌȈȧ Ȑȝ ȖȚȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȒȈȒȐȝ-ȓȐȉȖ ȠȈȋȖȊ ȐȓȐ șȌȍȓȈȚȤ ȌȘțȋȐȍ. ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ǫȖȊȈȘȌȈ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȚ șȗȖșȖȉ, ȗȘȐ ȗȖȔȖȡȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȐȓȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȚȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȈ Ȋ șȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȑ Ȑ ȌȖȓȋȖșȘȖȟȕȣȑ ȔȐȘ. ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȧȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ țșȗȍȠȕȖȋȖ ȍȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȘȐȚȈȕșȒȐȑ ȔȐȘ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȍȔȣȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖ-ȔȖȘșȒȐȔ ȜȓȖȚȖȔ ǪȍȓȐȒȖȉȘȐȚȈȕȐȐ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤ ȔȖȘȍȑ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȓ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕțȦ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȤ, ȒȖȚȖȘȈȧ ȗȘȍȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȣȊȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȖȉȡȐȑ ȔȐȘ1.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒț. ȅȌȊȈȘȌ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ (Edward Luttwack) Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȔȈȕȍȊȘ. ǰȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȍșȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȗȘȍȊȖșȝȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȖȋȕȍȊȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ Ȑ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȘȍșțȘșȈȝ Ȍȓȧ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, Ȋȕȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȚȖȋȖ, ȖȚșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȓȐ Ȗȕ ȐȓȐ ȒȈȗȐȚțȓȐȘțȍȚ. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȍșȚȤ ȕȍ ȟȚȖ ȐȕȖȍ, ȒȈȒ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȖȘȈȎȍȕȣ ȐȔȍȦȡȐȔȐșȧ Ȋ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ șȐșȚȍȔȈȔȐ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧ. ǷȘȖȚȐȊȖȗȖȓȖȎȕȖșȚȤȦ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȧ ȊȣșȚțȗȈȍȚ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȈȕȍȊȘ – «ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ, ȖȚȊȍȟȈȦȡȍȍ ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖșȚȧȔ ȞȍȓȐ». ǵȈȟȈȓȤȕȖȑ țșȚȈȕȖȊȒȖȑ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȈȕȍȊȘȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȐȏȉȍȎȈȕȐȍ ȗȘȧȔȖȋȖ șȚȖȓȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ș șȐȓȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ ȌȖ ȊȣȧȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȍȋȖ șȓȈȉȣȝ șȚȖȘȖȕ – ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐȝ, ȗșȐȝȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȓȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ, ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȊȣȊȍșȚȐ Ȑȏ șȚȘȖȧ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ȅȚȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ ȈȘȔȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȈ. Ǫ ȘȧȌȍ șȓțȟȈȍȊ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȈȚȈȒȖȊȈȕȣ ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ2.

dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȗȉȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ, ș ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȚȖȑ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȑ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ ȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȐ. ǶȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȈȕȍȊȘ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȚȘțȌȕȍȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȐȚȤ, ȕȍȎȍȓȐ ȐȏȕțȘȍȕȐȍ, Ȑ Ȗȕ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȗȘȖȊȈȓȐȚȤșȧ, ȍșȓȐ șȐȓȣ, ȍȋȖ ȊȣȗȖȓȕȧȦȡȐȍ, șȓȐȠȒȖȔ șȓȈȉȣ, ȟȚȖȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȏȈȌȈȟȍȑ, ȐȓȐ Ȏȍ ȖȕȐ ȊșȚȘȍȟȈȦȚ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕȖȍ șȖȗȘȖȚȐȊȓȍȕȐȍ. ǶȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȔȈȕȍȊȘ ȕȍ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȍȚ ȔȈȒșȐȔȣ «șȊȖȉȖȌȕȈȧ ȏȈȔȍȕȈ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖȔ», ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȘȐ ȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ ȗȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȦȚșȧ ȏȈ șȟȍȚ ȕȈȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȍȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ. ǷȖȒȈ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ ȕȍ ȌȖșȚȐȋȓȐ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȋȖ ȉȈȏȐșȕȖȋȖ țȘȖȊȕȧ ȉȖȍșȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȐ, ȖȋȕȍȊȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ, ȉȖȍȊȖȑ ȊȣțȟȒȐ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȈȕȍȊȘȈ ȟȘȍȊȈȚȈ ȕȍȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ. ǷȖ șȓȖȊȈȔ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒȈ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȈ: «ȀȐȘȖȒȖȍ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȍȕȐȍ, ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȍȔȖȍ ȏȌȍșȤ, ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȚȖȔ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȕȍ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȚȖ ȐȓȐ ȐȕȖȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȍȕȐȍ, ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȊȖȍ, ȖȌȕȈȒȖ

1 Howard, Michael. “Lessons of the Cold War,” Survival, Vol. 36, No. 4, Winter 1994-95, p. 165.

2 Luttwack, Edward N. Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1987, pp. 92-94.

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ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȗȘȐȏȕȈȊȈȍȔȖȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ. ǶȕȖ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȋșȧ șȜȍȘȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ șȈȔȈ ȗȖ șȍȉȍ ȗȘȖȗȐȚȈȕȈ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȖȑ, ȊȝȖȌȧȡȍȑ Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȍ ș ȖȉȣȒȕȖȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȖȑ, șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ Ȕȣ ȎȐȊȍȔ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȌȘțȋȐȝ șȜȍȘȈȝ ȎȐȏȕȐ (ȏȈ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍȔ ȐȋȘ, ȗȖȝȖȎȐȝ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕț)»1.

ǷȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȧȚȤ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ ȊȖȑȕȣ: ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȐȑ, ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ, ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ (ǺǪǬ) Ȑ ȋȘȈȕȌ-șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐ- ȟȍșȒȐȑ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȊȈ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ – ȋȖȘȐȏȖȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȑ, ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ Ȑȏ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ, Ȑ ȊȍȘȚȐȒȈȓȤȕȣȑ, șȒȊȖȏȤ țȘȖȊȕȐ. ǵȈ ȗȘȖșȚȖȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȍ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȌȖȘȖȋ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ ȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȍȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȈȔȐ. ǭșȓȐ Ȋ ȖȉȣȟȕȖȑ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȋȣ, ȉȍȏțșȓȖȊȕȖ, ȖșȚȈȕȖȊȐȚȍ șȊȖȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ ȕȈ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȖȘȖȋȍ, ȚȖ «ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȕȖȑ șȜȍȘȍ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȔȍșȚȖ ȊȣȉȖȘ Ȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȉȖȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȗȓȖȝȈȧ ȌȖȘȖȋȈ șȟȐȚȈȓȈșȤ ȉȣ ȝȖȘȖȠȍȑ ȐȔȍȕȕȖ ȗȖȚȖȔț, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȗȓȖȝȈȧ Ȑ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț Ȕȍȕȍȍ șȐȓȤȕȖ țȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȏȈȡȐȡȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ», ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȧ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ, ȧȊȓȧȦȡȍȍșȧ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǪșȓȍȌ ȏȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȍȔ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ ȖșȚȈȍȚșȧ ȊȍȘȍȕ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȔț ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȉȖȘșȚȊț Ȑ șȖșȚȧȏȈȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț ȈșȗȍȒȚț ȊȖȑȕȣ, ȊȍȌțȡȍȔț Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ: «…ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȟȚȍȕȐȍ ȕȍțȌȖȉȕȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȐȓȐ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ, ȧȊȕȣȝ Ȑ țȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȖ ȕȍȏȈȊȍȘȠȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȘȐȋȖȚȖȊȓȍȕȐȑ, ȗȖȌșȚțȗȖȊ ȒȈȎțȡȐȝșȧ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȖȗȈșȕȣȔȐ, ȕȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȧ ȐȓȐ ȗȓȖȝȖȑ ȗȖȋȖȌȣ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȖȉȡȐȔȐ ȈșȗȍȒȚȈȔȐ ȚȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȈșȚȍȘșȚȊȈ ȗȖ ȗȘȐȟȐȕȈȔ, ȊȣȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȔ Ȑȏ ȕȍȖȚȢȍȔȓȍȔȖȑ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȣ ȊȖȑȕȣ»2. ǷȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȍ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȖ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȌȖȉȐȚȤșȧ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ Ȋ ȉȖȦ.

«dzȦȉȣȍ ȊȐȌȣ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȕȣ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȖ ȕȈȌ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȖȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȕȍ Ȋ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȐ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȍȋȖ ȏȈșȚȈȓȐ ȊȘȈșȗȓȖȝ, Ȑ Ȗȕ ȕȍ ȋȖȚȖȊ ȐȓȐ, ȒȈȒ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔ, ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖ Ȑ Ȋ ȗȖȓȕțȦ șȐȓț. <…> ǪȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤ ȚȍȗȍȘȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȗȘȐȏȕȈȕȈ ȚȍȔ, ȟȍȔ ȖȕȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ: ȕȍ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȔȕȖȋȐȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕȍ, ȕȖ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȊȏȊȍȠȍȕȕȣȔ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȍȔ (ȏȈȊȐșȈȕȐȍȔ), ȝȖȚȧ ȉȣ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȕȈ ȒȘȈȚȒȖȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ Ȑ ȟȈșȚȐȟȕȖ, Ȋșȍȑ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȗȘȐ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȦȡȍȑșȧ ȉȖȘȤȉȍ. ǩȍȏ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȐȓȐ ȚȖȟȕȍȍ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȖȑ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȘȖșȚȖ ȈȌȔȐȕȐșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ»3.

ǬȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȝ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚȖȊ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ Ȋ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȕȈțȒȍ. Ƕȟȍ-

1 Ibid, p. 4.

2 Ibid, p. 7.

3 Ibid, p. 8.

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ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ, ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ, ȐȔȍȍȚ șȊȖȐ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ Ȑ ȕȐȒȖȋȌȈ ȕȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖ ȕȈȌȍȎȕȣȔ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, «ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȊȣȉȖȘ ș ȞȍȓȤȦ ȌȖșȚȐȟȤ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȐȔȍȚȤ șȊȖȦ Ȟȍȕț, ȊȣȘȈȎȈȦȡțȦșȧ Ȋ ȊȐȌȍ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ (șȐȓ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ, Ȋ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȖȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȉȣȓ ȉȣ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȍȕ». Ƕȕ ȟȈȡȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȏȈȚȘțȌȕȧȍȚ ȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȉȖȍȊȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ – ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȚȘțȌȕȍȍ ȊȍșȚȐ ȕȖȟȕȖȑ ȉȖȑ. Ǫ ȒȘȈȑȕȐȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ țșȐȓȐȧ, ȏȈȚȘȈȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȈ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȊȣȉȖȘȈ Ȑ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ, ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȚȈȒȖȔț ȘȈșȝȖȌț șȐȓ Ȑ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ, ȟȚȖ Ȑȝ țȎȍ ȕȍ ȝȊȈȚȈȍȚ ȕȈ ȋȓȈȊȕȖȍ șȘȈȎȍȕȐȍ1. «ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȒțȘș “ȕȈȐȔȍȕȤȠȍȋȖ ȖȎȐȌȈȕȐȧ” ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ țȌȍȘȎȈȕ ȖȚ șȈȔȖȘȈȏȘțȠȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȘȈȑȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ, ȗȖȔȐȔȖ ȊșȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȟȍȋȖ, ȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȘȈșȟȍȚȖȊ, ȕȍ ȖȚȊȍȟȈȦȡȐȝ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȐ. ǽȖȚȧ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȤȕȖ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȈȧ ȗȖȚȍȘȧ șȐȓ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊ ȕȍșȖȔȕȍȕȕȈ, țșȗȍȝ, ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȍȔȣȑ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȔȣȔ; Ȑ ȍșȓȐ șȚȖȐȔȖșȚȤ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȚȖȟȕȖ ȊȣșȟȐȚȈȕȈ, ȚȖ ȊȣȋȖȌȈ, ȗȖȒȈ ȌȍȓȖ ȕȍ ȖȒȖȕȟȍȕȖ, ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȖșȚȈȊȈȚȤșȧ ȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȖȔ șȗȍȒțȓȧȞȐȑ»2.

DzȈȘȚȐȕȈ țșȓȖȎȕȧȍȚșȧ ȚȘȍȕȐȍȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȖȍ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȔ ȘȐșȒȖȔ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏțȍȔȣȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, șȊȖȌȧ ȕȈ ȕȍȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚ ȊȕȍȏȈȗȕȖșȚȐ. ǪȖȏȔȖȎȕȣ ȚȈȒȎȍ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȗȘȧȔȣȍ ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȘȐȍȔȓȍȔȣȔȐ. «ǭșȓȐ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȚȈȒ ȖșȓȈȉȓȍȕ, ȟȚȖ ȍȋȖ șȐȓȣ ȔȖȋțȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȖȍ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȓ ȚȖȔț Ȏȍ ȖȉȍȏȌȊȐȎȍȕȣ, ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ ȐȕȌțșȚȘȐȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȈ, șȖ ȊșȍȔȐ ȊȣȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȒȘȐȚȍȘȐȧȔȐ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ, șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ, Ȉ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȓȖȋȐȒȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ – ȕȍțȔȍșȚȕȖȑ»3. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ șȊȖȐ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ Ȑ ȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȍȚȍȕȌȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȖȓȤ Ȗȉȡȍȑ ȚȍȖȘȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǺȈ Ȏȍ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȥȓȍȔȍȕȚ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȓȖȋȐȒȐ Ȑ ȊȗȖȓȕȍ ȓȖȋȐȟȕȖȋȖ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ, ȚȖ ȍșȚȤ ȗȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȖȉȖȉȡȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȧȚ Ȓ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȐȦ Ȑ șȈȔȖȖȚȘȐȞȈȕȐȦ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȟȍȚȒȖ ȖȟȍȘȟȐȊȈȧ ȋȘȈȕȐȞȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȔȖșȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ ȜȖȘȔȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌț. ǴȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ ǴȈȘȚȐȕȈ ȊȈȕ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌȈ (Martin van Creveld) «ǺȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ», șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȦ ȕȈ ȖȉȓȖȎȒȍ, ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ «ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȘȈȌȐȒȈȓȤȕțȦ ȘȍȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȈȞȐȦ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ șȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ». DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚșȧ Ȓ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȔ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȒȈȔ, șȟȐȚȈȦȡȐȔ ȚȍȖȘȐȦ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ țșȚȈȘȍȊȠȍȑ Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȡȍȑ ȖȉȢȧșȕȐȚȤ ȒȚȖ, ȒȈȒ Ȑ ȗȖȟȍȔț ȊȍȌȍȚ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȋ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕțȦ ȥȗȖȝț. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌț, ȊȖȑȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȍ

1 Ibid, pp. 9-10.

2 Ibid, p. 10.

3 Ibid, pp. 10-15, 17.

187

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔ ȈȒȚȖȔ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ. ǩȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȊȣșȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȍ șȖȔȕȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ ȖȕȈ ȊȖȖȉȡȍ ȒȖȋȌȈ-ȓȐȉȖ ȧȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ȚȈȒȖȊȖȑ. ǪȖȑȕȣ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ ȕȍ ȊȍȌțȚșȧ ȊȖȒȘțȋ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, Ȑ ȖȕȐ ȗȘȖȊȖȌȧȚșȧ ȕȍ ȗȖ ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȔ

ȐȖȉȡȍȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȔ ȗȘȈȊȐȓȈȔ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȖȑȕ1. ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȍ ȜȖȘȔȣ, Ȑ ȜȖȘȔȈ ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȈ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞȈ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊșȍȋȖ ȓȐȠȤ ȖȌȕȖȑ Ȑȏ ȕȐȝ, ȗȘȐȟȍȔ ȕȍ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘțȦȡȍȑ. ǹ 1991 ȋȖȌȈ Ȑ ȊȖȏȘȖȎȌȍȕȐȧ «ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȖȊ ȔȈȓȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖșȚȐ» Ȋ ȔȐȘȍ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȦȚ ȌȖȔȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȈȒȚȖȘȈȔȐ: «Ǵȣ ȊȝȖȌȐȔ Ȋ ȥȘț ȕȍ ȔȐȘȕȖȋȖ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ șȖȘȍȊȕȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȚȖȘȋȖȊȣȔȐ ȉȓȖȒȈȔȐ, ȕȖ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȥȚȕȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȐȘȍȓȐȋȐȖȏȕȣȔȐ ȋȘțȗȗȈȔȐ». ǶȗȣȚ Ȑ ȊȣțȟȒȈ ȗȘȖȜȍșșȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ ȕȖȊȣȔ țșȓȖȊȐȧȔ Ȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȈȔ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȐȔ ȗȘȐȝȖȌȐȚșȧ ȘȍȠȈȚȤ. ǿȚȖȉȣ șȗȘȈȊȐȚȤșȧ ș ȐȏȔȍȕȐȊȠȐȔșȧ ȔȐȘȖȔ, ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈȔ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȗȘȐșȚțȗȐȚȤ Ȓ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȦ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȝ șȐȓ, ȐȓȐ Ȏȍ ȖȕȐ ȘȐșȒțȦȚ ȐșȟȍȏȕțȚȤ ș ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȒȈȘȚȣȔȐȘȈ2.

ǷȘȐȘȖȌȈ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȈ ȌȐȒȚțȍȚ ȔȖȚȐȊȣ Ȑ ȞȍȓȐ țȟȈșȚȕȐȒȖȊ ȉȖȘȤȉȣ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȥȚȖ ȕȍȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȈȒȚȖȘȣ, ȚȖ Ȑȝ ȞȍȓȐ ȕȍ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȚșȧ ȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔț ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȦ Ȑ ȖȗȐȘȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȚȈȒȐȍ ȈȉșȚȘȈȒȚȕȣȍ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȗȖȕȧȚȐȧ, ȒȈȒ șȗȘȈȊȍȌȓȐȊȖșȚȤ, ȘȍȓȐȋȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘ. ǴȖȚȐȊȣ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȧ ȕȖșȧȚ ȐȕȌȐȊȐȌțȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ Ȑ ȕȍ ȗȖȌȌȈȦȚșȧ ȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȖȔț ȈȕȈȓȐȏț. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, ȗȘȐȊȣȟȕȣȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ șȖ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ ȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȕȍȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȊȣȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȕȍȖȎȐȌȈȕȕțȦ ȘȍȈȒȞȐȦ, ȒȖȚȖȘțȦ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȗȘȖșȟȐȚȈȚȤ Ȑ șȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȘȈȔȒȈȝ ȒȓȈșșȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȑȕȣ3. DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ DzȓȈțȏȍȊȐȞ ȕȍ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȓ, ȒȈȒ ȊȍȌȍȚșȧ ȊȖȑȕȈ, Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȚȧȋȈ Ȓ ȚȖȚȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȧȊȓȧȓȈșȤ ȖȠȐȉȖȟȕȖȑ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȍ ȗȘȈȊȖ, ȒȖȕȊȍȕȞȐȐ, ȘȧȌ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȖȊ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȦȚ ȔȍȎȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ, ȕȍ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȧ ȐȔ ȖȉȘȍșȚȐ ȚȖȚȈȓȤȕȣȑ ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘ.

ǵȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșȕȣȔ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌȈ ȕȈ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ. DzȈȒ

ȐdzȦȚȚȊȈȒ, ȊȈȕ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ șȟȐȚȈȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȓȤȕȖȑ. ǭșȓȐ ȞȍȓȤȦ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ țȕȐȟȚȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑșȒ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, ȚȖ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ ȔȈȕȍȊȘ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȊșȒȘȣȚȤ ȍȋȖ șȓȈȉȣȍ ȔȍșȚȈ. ǺȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȊȖȑȕȈ ȍșȚȤ șȖșȚȧȏȈȕȐȍ, ȚȖ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒ ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȐȔȈȍȚ ȈȕȈȓȖȋȐȟȕȣȍ ȠȈȋȐ, Ȑ ȏȈȌȈȟȈ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȏȈȡȐȚȍ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ șȓȈȉȣȝ ȔȍșȚ ȖȚ țȌȈȘȖȊ ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ. ǺȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȒȊȐȕȚȥșșȍȕȞȐȍȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ «…șȗȖșȖȉȕȖșȚȤ ȖȚȊȓȍȟȤ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ (ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ), ȖȉȔȈȕțȚȤ Ȑ ȊȊȍșȚȐ Ȋ

ȏȈȉȓțȎȌȍȕȐȍ». ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȐ ȟȘȍȏȔȍȘȕȖȔ țȊȓȍȟȍȕȐȐ ȌȈȕȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȍȑ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȖ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȚȤ, ȋȌȍ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȔȍșȚȖ ȖȉȔȈȕ Ȑ ȊȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȏȈȉȓțȎȌȍȕȐȍ

1 Creveld, The Transformation of War, p. ix.

2 Ibid, pp. ix, 57.

3 Ibid, pp. 125-156.

188

ǹdzǶǮǵǶǭ ǴȃȀdzǭǵǰǭ ǰ ǹǭǺȄ: ǷǨǸǨǬǰǫǴǨ ǵǭdzǰǵǭDZǵǶǹǺǰ ǰ ǹǸǭǬǨ ǩǭǯǶǷǨǹǵǶǹǺǰ 21 ǪǭDzǨ

ȗȘȖȚȐȊȕȐȒȈ, Ȉ ȋȌȍ ȘȈȏȊȖȘȈȟȐȊȈȦȚșȧ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȍ țșȐȓȐȧ. ǪȈȕ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ ȋȖȊȖȘȐȚ Ȗ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒșȈȝ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒș ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ Ȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ. ǷȘȐ ȥȚȖȔ Ȗȕ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚ Țȍ Ȏȍ ȈȘȋțȔȍȕȚȣ, ȟȚȖ Ȑ dzȦȚȚȊȈȒ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȒȘȈȚȟȈȑȠȐȔ ȘȈșșȚȖȧȕȐȍȔ ȔȍȎȌț ȌȊțȔȧ ȚȖȟȒȈȔȐ ȕȍ ȊșȍȋȌȈ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȗȘȧȔȈȧ ȓȐȕȐȧ. ǬȘțȋȖȑ ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒș șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȔȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȍȑ șȐȓ Ȑ Ȑȝ ȘȈșșȘȍȌȖȚȖȟȍȕȐȍȔ. DzȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȧ, ȉțȌțȟȐ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȑ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȐȔțȡȍșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȋȓȈȊȕȖȔ ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ, ȗȖȊȣȠȈȍȚ ȠȈȕș ȗȘȍȎȌȍȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈșȒȘȣȚȐȧ ȏȈȔȣșȓȈ. ǰ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, ȗȈȘȈȌȖȒș ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȌȍȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖșȚȐ (effectiveness and efficiency), ȒȖȋȌȈ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȕȈȧ, ȔȖȌȍȘȕȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ țȧȏȊȐȔȖȑ1.

ǪȍȘȖȧȚȕȖ, ȥȚȖ țȕȐȒȈȓȤȕȣȑ șȓțȟȈȑ Ȋ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȔȣșȓȐ, ȕȖ DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ ȗȖȏȎȍ ȗȘȐȠȍȓ Ȓ ȒȘȐȚȐȒȍ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȊȏȋȓȧȌȖȊ. ǹ ȖȌȕȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, Ȋ ȕȖȊȖȑ ȘȍȌȈȒȞȐȐ ȔȖȕȖȋȘȈȜȐȐ ȖȚ 2003 ȋȖȌȈ ȌȍȓȈȍȚșȧ ȊȣȊȖȌ Ȗ ȕȈȉȐȘȈȕȐȐ ȊȍșȈ ȕȍȚȘȈȌȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȔȐ ȊȖȑȕȈȔȐ – «ȋȓȈȊȕȣȑ ȚȍȏȐș “ǺȘȈȕșȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȊȖȑȕȣ”, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȜȓȐȒȚȣ ȔȍȎȌț ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ ȌȍȘȎȈȊȈȔȐ șȝȖȌȧȚ ȕȈ ȕȍȚ, ȗȖȌȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȐȐ ȌȍșȧȚȐ ȓȍȚ ȗȖșȓȍ ȗțȉȓȐȒȈȞȐȐ ȒȕȐȋȐ», Ȑ «ȐșȚȖȘȐȧ șȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊțȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȍ Ȗ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȔ șȌȊȐȋȍ ȖȚ ȊȖȑȕ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ ȚȘȐȍȌȐȕșȚȊȈ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȓ ȌȘțȋȐȔ ȗȖȌȚȊȍȘȌȐȓȖșȤ Ȑ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȍȚ ȗȖȌȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȚȤșȧ ȟțȚȤ ȓȐ ȕȈ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ»2. ǹ ȌȘțȋȖȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, DzȘȍȊȍȓȤȌ ȊȣȕțȎȌȍȕ ȒȖȕșȚȈȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȒȖȕȊȍȕȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ ȖșȚȈȦȚșȧ ȈȒȚțȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ, Ȑ ȕȍȚ șȐȔȗȚȖȔȖȊ Ȑȝ țȝȖȌȈ ș ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȞȍȕȣ3.

ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ șȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ǫȘȍȦ. DzȖȓȐȕ ǫȘȍȑ ȌȈȍȚ șȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ șȚȘȈȚȍ-

ȋȐȐ: «ǷȖȌ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȍȑ ȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȦ șȗȖșȖȉ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȐȓȣ Ȑ țȋȘȖȏȈ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȐȓȣ Ȋ Ȟȍȓȧȝ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ»4. Ǫ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȐ ǫȘȍȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȈȧ ȘȖȓȤ ȖȚȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȍȑ, ȐȓȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ. ǫȘȍȑ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ ȊȖȑȕȈ, ȉțȌțȟȐ șȓȖȎȕȣȔ ȜȍȕȖȔȍȕȖȔ, ȚȘȍȉțȍȚ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȈȒȐȝ Ȏȍ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ. DzȈȒ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍ, șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ț ǫȘȍȧ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ, ȒȈȒ ȔȐȕȐȔțȔ, 17 ȘȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȧȔȐ, Ȑ, ȟȚȖ ȊȈȎȕȖ, ȥȚȖ «ȝȈȘȈȒȚȍȘȕȣȍ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȍȌȐȕȖȋȖ ȞȍȓȖȋȖ <…> ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȌȘțȋ ȕȈ ȌȘțȋȈ». ǸȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȐ ȋȘțȗȗȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȗȖ ȚȘȍȔ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȧȔ: ȕȈȘȖȌ Ȑ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȈ, ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȈ Ȓ ȊȖȑȕȍ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ. ǷȖșȓȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȍȑ ǫȘȍȑ ȏȈȌȈȍȚșȧ ȊȖȗȘȖșȖȔ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȖȕȐ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȚ ȌȘțȋ ș ȌȘțȋȖȔ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ ȖȒȖȕȟȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ țȚȊȍȘȎȌȈȧ ȞȍȓȖșȚȕȖȍ Ȑ ȕȍȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȍ ȊȐȌȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȑȕȣ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȈȧ ȘȖȓȤ ȖȚȊȖȌȐȚșȧ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȖȑ ȈȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ. ǪȖȑȕȈ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȊȍȟȕȣȔȐ,

1 Ibid, pp. 63-94, 119, 120-220.

2 Creveld, The Transformation of War Revisited, p. 5.

3 Ibid, pp. 7-14.

4 Gray, Modern Strategy, p. 17.

189

ǸȈȟȤȧ ǨǸǯǻǴǨǵȇǵ

ȒȈȒ ȊȍȟȕȈ ȟȍȓȖȊȍȟȍșȒȈȧ ȗȘȐȘȖȌȈ, Ȑ ȕȈȔȕȖȋȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȈȉșȚȘȈȒȚȕȣȔȐ, ȟȍȔ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȖ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȚȈȒȐȍ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ, ȒȈȒ ȐȕȚțȐȞȐȧ, ȒȖȋȕȐȞȐȧ, ȒțȓȤȚțȘȈ Ȑ ȌȈȎȍ ȔȍȚȈȜȐȏȐȒȈ1.

ǽȖȓȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȊȏȋȓȧȌ ȕȈ ȊȖȑȕț Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȒȘȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȊȈȎȕȣȔ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȍȋȖ șȓȍȌșȚȊȐȍȔ șȚȈȕȖȊȐȚșȧ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖȋȖ ȖȉȔȍȕȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȍȑ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȦȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȊȏȈȐȔȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȒȈȒ ȔȍȎȌț șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȕȖșȚȧȔȐ, ȚȈȒ Ȑ Ȋ șȐșȚȍȔȍ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ. DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȦȚ ȘȈșȗȖȏȕȈȚȤ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț ȕȖȊȣȝ ȧȊȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȓȈȕ ȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȐ, ȚȍȔ șȈȔȣȔ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȧ ȚȘȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȚțȔȈȕ ȊȖȑȕȣ Ȑ șȖȝȘȈȕȧȧ ȈȌȍȒȊȈȚȕȖșȚȤ Ȓ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȧȦȡȍȑșȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ.

ǷȖȗȣȚȒȐ ȖȉȖȉȡȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ Ȓ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. Ǫ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȘțȋȈȝ ǹȀǨ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȧ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ: «ǰșȒțșșȚȊȖ Ȑ ȕȈțȒȈ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȔȖȡȐ șȐȕȝȘȖȕȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȚȍȈȚȘȈ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȑ (ǺǪǬ), ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȑ/ȐȓȐ ȔȕȖȋȖȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ»2. ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ ȒȈȒ ȜțȕȒȞȐȦ ȖȚ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȔ. Ǫ «ȅȕȞȐȒȓȖȗȍȌȐȐ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȑ ȌȖȒȚȘȐȕȣ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȐȒȈ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȒȖȔȐȚȍȚȈ ȕȈȟȈȓȤȕȐȒȖȊ ȠȚȈȉȖȊ» (Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia) ȌȈȍȚșȧ șȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ: «ȅȚȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȐȕȚȍȋȘȐȘțȦȚ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȏȈȌȈȟȐ (ȞȍȓȐ), ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕțȦ ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒț Ȑ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȒȖȕȞȍȗȞȐȐ (șȗȖșȖȉȣ, ȗțȚȐ, ȔȍȚȖȌȣ), Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȘȍșțȘșȣ, ȊȖȖȘțȎȍȕȕȣȍ șȐȓȣ Ȑ ȊȐȌȣ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ (șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ)»3. ǶȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ șȖșȘȍȌȖȚȈȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȍȏȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȐ Ȑ șȓțȎȐȚ ȧȘȒȐȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȖȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȈ, ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȦȡȍȋȖ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȈșȗȍȒȚȣ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ: ȒȈȒ, ȒȈȒȐȔ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȔ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȦȚșȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȞȍȓȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, Ȋ ȓțȟȠȍȔ șȓțȟȈȍ, ȐȔȍȍȚșȧ ȒȖȘȘȍȓȧȞȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȓȧȔȐ Ȑ șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ Ȑȝ ȌȖșȚȐȎȍȕȐȧ. ǶȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍ ȕȍ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȍȚ ȊȖȗȘȖș, ȟȍȘȍȏ ȒȈȒȐȍ ȊȖȍȕȕȣȍ ȞȍȓȐ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȌȖșȚȐȋȕțȚȤ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȟȍȓȍȑ, Ȉ ȅȕȞȐȒȓȖȗȍȌȐȧ ȖȚșȣȓȈȍȚ Ȓ ȚȍȖȘȍȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔț ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚț «ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȊȖȍȕȕȈȧ șȚȘȈȚȍ-

ȋȐȧ» (National Military Strategy).

ǪȖȍȕȕȣȑ ȒȖȓȓȍȌȎ ǨȘȔȐȐ ǹȀǨ (U.S. Army War College) ȌȈȍȚ ȌȊȈ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ. ǷȍȘȊȖȍ: «DzȖȕȞȍȗȚțȈȓȤȕȖ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȦ Ȕȣ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔ ȒȈȒ ȊȏȈȐȔȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȞȍȓȧȔȐ, șȗȖșȖȉȈȔȐ (ȗțȚȧȔȐ, ȔȍȚȖȌȈȔȐ) Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈȔȐ»4. ǰ

1 Ibid, pp. 24-43.

2 U. S. Joint Staff, Joint Publication 1-02. DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. Washington, DC: United States Department of Defense, 12 April 2001, pp. 507, 357. 12 January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/ new_pubs/jp1_02.pdf.

3 U. S. Joint Staff. Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia. Washington, DC: United States Department of Defense, 16 July 1997, pp. 731, 542. 12 January 2011. http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/dod/docs/encyd_h.pdf.

4 Dorff, Robert H. “A Primer in Strategy Development,” in Joseph R. Cerami and James F. Holcomb, Jr. (eds.). U.S. Army War College Guide Strategy. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2001, p. 11. 12 January 2011.

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