Global Warming and Ecological Democracy

Global warming is a complex democracy and equality issue. On a long run the strengthening of the greenhouse effect is a serious threat to everybody. The problem, however, is mostly caused by the rich minority of the world’s population. On a per capita basis some countries are producing a hundred times more climate warming emissions than the world’s poorest countries. And inside each country the more well-off people are always producing more greenhouse gas emissions than the middle- or low-income segments of the population. The rich have more cars and they tend to use them more, they tend to travel more with jet planes that produce several times more greenhouse gases per kilometer per passenger than private cars, they have larger houses that are either heated or cooled down with fossil fuel and they buy more consumer goods the manufacturing of which is causing large greenhouse gas emission.

In reality the industrialized countries – with the significant exception of the USA who produces one third of their greenhouse gas emissions – committed themselves to reducing their real greenhouse gas emission by 1.8 per cent of the 1990 by the year 1012. The next step will be more difficult. In order to achieve the necessary 60-80 per cent reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions much more needs to be done in the North, and the Southern countries must also agree to limit the growth of their emissions.

In the climate conventional negotiations many environmentalists were against the inclusion of carbon sinks (forests absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere) in the treaty. According to many environmental organizations the sequestration of carbon into forests can only be a temporary relief to the problem, because there is a clear limit for how much carbon the forests can absorb. When the trees start to die the carbon is again released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. On a long run the only way to half the build-up of carbon dioxide into atmosphere is to limit the use of oil, coal and natural gases. And what if the forests that have been grown to store atmospheric carbon dioxide will burn in giant forest fires? Other environmental organizations, however, emohasized the benefits of including carbon sinks into the convention. They pointed out that the principle would provide the incentive for the governments to protect their remaining natural forest areas.

In Brasil, Colombia Venezuela, Equador and Peru huge tracts of rainforests have been protected from logging by agreements between the government and the federations of indigenous people living in the forest areas. This has been one of the most important success stories in the history of nature protection, because roughly 30 per cent of all the living species of our planet’s land ecosystems exist in the Amazonian rainforests. The most important ally of the Amazonian rainforest peoples have been the trade unions of people who earn their living by collecting natural rubber, brazil nuts or other products from the rainforests without cutting the trees.

The establishment of carbon storage forests doesn’t have to be a temporary measure. It is possible to manage the forests so, that very high amounts of carbon can be stored in the trees biomass for an indefinite period of time. This can simply be done by lengthening the rotation period used in forestry. Also, there is a surprisingly large number of tree species that can live one or several thousands of years and achieve a very big size – if left in peace. Carbon storage forests would most probably be less vulnerable to forest fires than ordinary forest. Young and small trees burn much more easily than older and lager trees which are often surprisingly resistant to forest fires because of their thick bark. Some trees – like baobab – cannot burn in any kind of forest fires, as long as they remain alive, because of their high moisture content.

Global warming will definitely increase the number and severity of forest fires in different parts of the world, but the higher the average age of the trees will be, the less damage the fires are likely to do.

The greenhouse effect refers to the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to trap the Sun’s infrared radiation. Because of the existence of the present kind off atmosphere, the Earth is currently about 30 centigrades warmer than it should be otherwise be. Without the greenhouse effect the average temperature on our planet would be about –16 degrades Celsius instead of the present +16 degrees Celsius.

Only some gases are efficient in trapping heat into the atmosphere. Ordinary oxygen and nitrogen molecules do not contribute to the greenhouse effect. Most of the natural greenhouse effect is caused by water vapor. Other substances that contribute to the greenhouse effect are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. Besides this humans have invented a number of new greenhouse gases or climate warming substances, that do not exist in the nature. The most important group of such substances are the freons or chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that also destroy ozone in the upper atmosphere. Climate scientists say that man-made emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases might increase the average global temperatures by 1.5 – 6 centigrades during the 21-st century.

According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authoritative scientific body aiming to coordinate research on global warming, the higher temperatures could lead to a rise of 7 to 13 meters in the sea levels during the next 500 years. If sea levels were to become ten meters higher than now, about ten million square kilometers of land and most of the world’s fertile farmlands would be inundated. About half of the world’s people would lose their homes under the water.

The predicted rise is caused by two factors: heat expansion of the sea water and the partial melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic glaciers. According to the IPCC, the thermal expansion of the water “would continue to raise sea level for many centuries after stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations”. It will take about a thousand years before the warming will reach the bottom of the sea, but during this time the warming predicted for the next century could raise the ocean by four meters.

Some researchers claim that the West Antarctic ice sheet is also showing signs of becoming unstable. According to the last satellite pictures the largest glacier of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the Pine Island Glacier, is already losing ice faster than snowfall can replenish it. If the glacier continues to melt at the current rate, it will disappear in 600 years, raising global sea level by five more meters. And these five meters would come on top of the rise caused by heat expansion and by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

If these scenarios become true, the continuous rise in sea levels could become the most important single factor sustaining and deepening absolute poverty in the world – at least for a thousand of years or so. A major part of the world’s population would be pushed into the coastal areas threatened by the rising sea and by hurricanes, because no one else would like to live in these areas, and because the rich and powerful would appropriate for themselves all the good farmland in safer regions. When the sea level will rise, little by little, the poorest people would have to escape and move, over and over again, losing their homes and a major part of their scarce properties one time after another.

Also the areas that are lying on somewhat higher ground would be likely to suffer. Various extreme weather conditions like floods and droughts would become more common. The incidence of devastating typhoons and hurricans might increase by a factor of ten, if the world becomes five centigrades warmer than now. At the same time the destructive power of the worst storms might increase by 50 or 60 percent because of the higher temperatures – and higher wind speeds caused by them.

Besides of the sea levels, the most serious consequence of the global warming could be the drying of the tropical and sub-tropical areas. Even though rainfall would be likely to increase, it is likely that evaporation would increase even more.

A further threat comes from the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The quantity of water in the Himalayan glaciers is not large enough to raise the sea level in a significant way, but the water supply of much of Asia will be affected. Major rivers of Asia get a major part of their dry season flows from the Himalayan glaciers. Indian scientists have projected that by 2030 many of the rivers originating from the Himalayas, including the Ganges, Kali, and Indus, will all be dry during the dry season. These are grave predictions, especially because the groundwater resources in South Asia, South-East Asia and China are also being depleted with a frightening speed.

Task 1

Interpret the following words in English:

negotiation, sequestration, melting, fertile farmlands, scenario, inundated, scarce, hurricane, logging, vulnerable, temporary, democracy, equality, fossil fuel, sink.

Task 2

Give synonyms or close words of the following words:

global, complex, to cause, well-off, segment, significant, to limit, to release, to use, to store, huge, indigenous, roughly, species, lengthen, rotation, average, damage, to trap, to increase, to decrease, aim, to predict, rate.

Task 3

Answer the questions and give your own opinion.

1. Do you agree that Global warming is the problem caused mostly by the rich? Why?

2. Why is it really a difficult problem for negotiating?

3. Why were many environmentalists against the inclusion of carbon sinks in the treaty?

4. How to make the establishment of carbon storage a forests long-term measure?

5. Why would carbon storage forests be less vulnerable to forest fires than ordinary forests?

6. How does the greenhouse effect refer to the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to trap the Sun’s infrared radiation?

7. Where is a lot of extra carbon dioxide come from?

8. What does the increase of the average temperature by 1.5 – 6 centigrades mean for peoples on the Earth?

9. What will contribute to the rise of ocean level?

10. How would the climate change?

Task 4

Render the text into English.