American-Russian Dualism?

Regarding the assertion of threat potentials in the world, the U.S. and Russia have a closer understanding than the U.S. and the EU. If confronted with a new Chechen terror attack, possibly with weapons of mass destruction, Russia might, according to a source in the Kremlin, strike back with tactical nuclear weapons. The U.S. will also experience further setbacks in the fight against Islamic Fundamentalism and will have to respond with an appropriately tough line of action. Fatal for the future development of Europe would be a new American-Russian dualism in global security questions, which would not take the Europeans into consideration. The EU is threatened to get locked in between two war-waging powers.

Nonetheless, the Russian - American relation-ship does have a latent potential for conflict. The new partnership is not irreversible. Putin's approach to the U.S. does not draw a lot of sympathy in his own country. Many influential representatives of the Russian ruling elite, especially in the military, criticized Putin for his compliance with the former Cold War enemy. Putin can still argue that thanks to Russian politics, the U.S. has again been tied into the framework of the UN Security Council and that the role of the UN as international ´referee` has been saved. A unilateral U.S. advance against Iraq, which is not sanctioned by the UN, would, however, put Putin under pressure in his domestic politics and would endanger the future of the anti-terror alliance.

Currently, Putin is trying to avoid any signs of anti-Americanism in his foreign policy. His visit to China and India at the end of 2002 did not serve, as one might suggest, as the incarnation of the idea of an anti-Western triangle Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi, but rather, as an opportunity to discuss the policy of rapprochement between Russia and NATO with Chinese and Indian leaders.

In the meantime, Beijing has displayed interest in cooperating with NATO. Putin made offers to the Chinese to invest in the Russian oil market. Washington and Moscow seem to have a mutually agreed political strategy in dealing with China, namely to bind the developing Asian superpower to the anti-terror alliance.

A war with Iraq could further change the global political situation. A victory over Saddam Hussein would secure the U.S. a leading role in the oil-rich Middle East. Russia does not want to be cut off from the future oil trade in the Persian Gulf and is trying to secure its interests both in Baghdad and in Washington. Baghdad however cancelled a cooperation treaty with Russia in December, because Russian oil companies had, with the help of the U.S, taken up talks with the Iraqi opposition in exile.

This development made it clear that Russia is being viewed as more menial in the Arabic world than it was before, i.e. as a junior partner of the U.S. The loss of the Iraqi market could be compensated by Russia through newly developed closer ties to the U.S., but how will Russia react if it gets pressure from the Americans to further cut its nuclear and economic ties to Iran and North-Korea?

A further potential conflict could arise in the case of Russia pursuing a neo-imperialist policy in the territory of the post-Soviet states. Putin's urging for Belarus to unite with Russia, Russia's surprising stationing of its own fighter jets in the fight against terrorism in Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan), intended as a countermeasure to the American presence in the region, as well as Moscow's support of eastern Ukrainian and Moscow-friendly oligarchs in the Ukrainian Presidential campaign and the disturbed Russian-Georgian relationship, these are all factors that might weaken the anti-terror alliance. Washington regards Putin as a ´partner`, not an ´ally`. In informal talks with Europeans, senior U.S. officials state that the American-Russian relations were a temporary coincidence of political preoccupation, not more.

At the moment, Putin seems to need the U.S. more than he does the Europeans. Through the strategic partnership with the U.S., Putin was able to bring back Russia into the first division of world politics, step by step.

Ex.5 Find equivalents for the following in the text:

1. вступать в конфронтацию

2. уничтожать

3. слабые проблески демократии

4. незрелая политическая система

5. стихийное вторжение/нашествие