- •Intended Audience
- •1.1 Financing the Firm
- •1.2Public and Private Sources of Capital
- •1.3The Environment forRaising Capital in the United States
- •Investment Banks
- •1.4Raising Capital in International Markets
- •1.5MajorFinancial Markets outside the United States
- •1.6Trends in Raising Capital
- •Innovative Instruments
- •2.1Bank Loans
- •2.2Leases
- •2.3Commercial Paper
- •2.4Corporate Bonds
- •2.5More Exotic Securities
- •2.6Raising Debt Capital in the Euromarkets
- •2.7Primary and Secondary Markets forDebt
- •2.8Bond Prices, Yields to Maturity, and Bond Market Conventions
- •2.9Summary and Conclusions
- •3.1Types of Equity Securities
- •Volume of Financing with Different Equity Instruments
- •3.2Who Owns u.S. Equities?
- •3.3The Globalization of Equity Markets
- •3.4Secondary Markets forEquity
- •International Secondary Markets for Equity
- •3.5Equity Market Informational Efficiency and Capital Allocation
- •3.7The Decision to Issue Shares Publicly
- •3.8Stock Returns Associated with ipOs of Common Equity
- •Ipo Underpricing of u.S. Stocks
- •4.1Portfolio Weights
- •4.2Portfolio Returns
- •4.3Expected Portfolio Returns
- •4.4Variances and Standard Deviations
- •4.5Covariances and Correlations
- •4.6Variances of Portfolios and Covariances between Portfolios
- •Variances for Two-Stock Portfolios
- •4.7The Mean-Standard Deviation Diagram
- •4.8Interpreting the Covariance as a Marginal Variance
- •Increasing a Stock Position Financed by Reducing orSelling Short the Position in
- •Increasing a Stock Position Financed by Reducing orShorting a Position in a
- •4.9Finding the Minimum Variance Portfolio
- •Identifying the Minimum Variance Portfolio of Two Stocks
- •Identifying the Minimum Variance Portfolio of Many Stocks
- •Investment Applications of Mean-Variance Analysis and the capm
- •5.2The Essentials of Mean-Variance Analysis
- •5.3The Efficient Frontierand Two-Fund Separation
- •5.4The Tangency Portfolio and Optimal Investment
- •Identification of the Tangency Portfolio
- •5.5Finding the Efficient Frontierof Risky Assets
- •5.6How Useful Is Mean-Variance Analysis forFinding
- •5.8The Capital Asset Pricing Model
- •Implications for Optimal Investment
- •5.9Estimating Betas, Risk-Free Returns, Risk Premiums,
- •Improving the Beta Estimated from Regression
- •Identifying the Market Portfolio
- •5.10Empirical Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
- •Is the Value-Weighted Market Index Mean-Variance Efficient?
- •Interpreting the capm’s Empirical Shortcomings
- •5.11 Summary and Conclusions
- •6.1The Market Model:The First FactorModel
- •6.2The Principle of Diversification
- •Insurance Analogies to Factor Risk and Firm-Specific Risk
- •6.3MultifactorModels
- •Interpreting Common Factors
- •6.5FactorBetas
- •6.6Using FactorModels to Compute Covariances and Variances
- •6.7FactorModels and Tracking Portfolios
- •6.8Pure FactorPortfolios
- •6.9Tracking and Arbitrage
- •6.10No Arbitrage and Pricing: The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
- •Verifying the Existence of Arbitrage
- •Violations of the aptEquation fora Small Set of Stocks Do Not Imply Arbitrage.
- •Violations of the aptEquation by Large Numbers of Stocks Imply Arbitrage.
- •6.11Estimating FactorRisk Premiums and FactorBetas
- •6.12Empirical Tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
- •6.13 Summary and Conclusions
- •7.1Examples of Derivatives
- •7.2The Basics of Derivatives Pricing
- •7.3Binomial Pricing Models
- •7.4Multiperiod Binomial Valuation
- •7.5Valuation Techniques in the Financial Services Industry
- •7.6Market Frictions and Lessons from the Fate of Long-Term
- •7.7Summary and Conclusions
- •8.1ADescription of Options and Options Markets
- •8.2Option Expiration
- •8.3Put-Call Parity
- •Insured Portfolio
- •8.4Binomial Valuation of European Options
- •8.5Binomial Valuation of American Options
- •Valuing American Options on Dividend-Paying Stocks
- •8.6Black-Scholes Valuation
- •8.7Estimating Volatility
- •Volatility
- •8.8Black-Scholes Price Sensitivity to Stock Price, Volatility,
- •Interest Rates, and Expiration Time
- •8.9Valuing Options on More Complex Assets
- •Implied volatility
- •8.11 Summary and Conclusions
- •9.1 Cash Flows ofReal Assets
- •9.2Using Discount Rates to Obtain Present Values
- •Value Additivity and Present Values of Cash Flow Streams
- •Inflation
- •9.3Summary and Conclusions
- •10.1Cash Flows
- •10.2Net Present Value
- •Implications of Value Additivity When Evaluating Mutually Exclusive Projects.
- •10.3Economic Value Added (eva)
- •10.5Evaluating Real Investments with the Internal Rate of Return
- •Intuition for the irrMethod
- •10.7 Summary and Conclusions
- •10A.1Term Structure Varieties
- •10A.2Spot Rates, Annuity Rates, and ParRates
- •11.1Tracking Portfolios and Real Asset Valuation
- •Implementing the Tracking Portfolio Approach
- •11.2The Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Method
- •11.3The Effect of Leverage on Comparisons
- •11.4Implementing the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Formula with
- •11.5Pitfalls in Using the Comparison Method
- •11.6Estimating Beta from Scenarios: The Certainty Equivalent Method
- •Identifying the Certainty Equivalent from Models of Risk and Return
- •11.7Obtaining Certainty Equivalents with Risk-Free Scenarios
- •Implementing the Risk-Free Scenario Method in a Multiperiod Setting
- •11.8Computing Certainty Equivalents from Prices in Financial Markets
- •11.9Summary and Conclusions
- •11A.1Estimation Errorand Denominator-Based Biases in Present Value
- •11A.2Geometric versus Arithmetic Means and the Compounding-Based Bias
- •12.2Valuing Strategic Options with the Real Options Methodology
- •Valuing a Mine with No Strategic Options
- •Valuing a Mine with an Abandonment Option
- •Valuing Vacant Land
- •Valuing the Option to Delay the Start of a Manufacturing Project
- •Valuing the Option to Expand Capacity
- •Valuing Flexibility in Production Technology: The Advantage of Being Different
- •12.3The Ratio Comparison Approach
- •12.4The Competitive Analysis Approach
- •12.5When to Use the Different Approaches
- •Valuing Asset Classes versus Specific Assets
- •12.6Summary and Conclusions
- •13.1Corporate Taxes and the Evaluation of Equity-Financed
- •Identifying the Unlevered Cost of Capital
- •13.2The Adjusted Present Value Method
- •Valuing a Business with the wacc Method When a Debt Tax Shield Exists
- •Investments
- •IsWrong
- •Valuing Cash Flow to Equity Holders
- •13.5Summary and Conclusions
- •14.1The Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •IsFalse
- •14.2How an Individual InvestorCan “Undo” a Firm’s Capital
- •14.3How Risky Debt Affects the Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •14.4How Corporate Taxes Affect the Capital Structure Choice
- •14.6Taxes and Preferred Stock
- •14.7Taxes and Municipal Bonds
- •14.8The Effect of Inflation on the Tax Gain from Leverage
- •14.10Are There Tax Advantages to Leasing?
- •14.11Summary and Conclusions
- •15.1How Much of u.S. Corporate Earnings Is Distributed to Shareholders?Aggregate Share Repurchases and Dividends
- •15.2Distribution Policy in Frictionless Markets
- •15.3The Effect of Taxes and Transaction Costs on Distribution Policy
- •15.4How Dividend Policy Affects Expected Stock Returns
- •15.5How Dividend Taxes Affect Financing and Investment Choices
- •15.6Personal Taxes, Payout Policy, and Capital Structure
- •15.7Summary and Conclusions
- •16.1Bankruptcy
- •16.3How Chapter11 Bankruptcy Mitigates Debt Holder–Equity HolderIncentive Problems
- •16.4How Can Firms Minimize Debt Holder–Equity Holder
- •Incentive Problems?
- •17.1The StakeholderTheory of Capital Structure
- •17.2The Benefits of Financial Distress with Committed Stakeholders
- •17.3Capital Structure and Competitive Strategy
- •17.4Dynamic Capital Structure Considerations
- •17.6 Summary and Conclusions
- •18.1The Separation of Ownership and Control
- •18.2Management Shareholdings and Market Value
- •18.3How Management Control Distorts Investment Decisions
- •18.4Capital Structure and Managerial Control
- •Investment Strategy?
- •18.5Executive Compensation
- •Is Executive Pay Closely Tied to Performance?
- •Is Executive Compensation Tied to Relative Performance?
- •19.1Management Incentives When Managers Have BetterInformation
- •19.2Earnings Manipulation
- •Incentives to Increase or Decrease Accounting Earnings
- •19.4The Information Content of Dividend and Share Repurchase
- •19.5The Information Content of the Debt-Equity Choice
- •19.6Empirical Evidence
- •19.7Summary and Conclusions
- •20.1AHistory of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.2Types of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.3 Recent Trends in TakeoverActivity
- •20.4Sources of TakeoverGains
- •Is an Acquisition Required to Realize Tax Gains, Operating Synergies,
- •Incentive Gains, or Diversification?
- •20.5The Disadvantages of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.7Empirical Evidence on the Gains from Leveraged Buyouts (lbOs)
- •20.8 Valuing Acquisitions
- •Valuing Synergies
- •20.9Financing Acquisitions
- •Information Effects from the Financing of a Merger or an Acquisition
- •20.10Bidding Strategies in Hostile Takeovers
- •20.11Management Defenses
- •20.12Summary and Conclusions
- •21.1Risk Management and the Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •Implications of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Hedging
- •21.2Why Do Firms Hedge?
- •21.4How Should Companies Organize TheirHedging Activities?
- •21.8Foreign Exchange Risk Management
- •Indonesia
- •21.9Which Firms Hedge? The Empirical Evidence
- •21.10Summary and Conclusions
- •22.1Measuring Risk Exposure
- •Volatility as a Measure of Risk Exposure
- •Value at Risk as a Measure of Risk Exposure
- •22.2Hedging Short-Term Commitments with Maturity-Matched
- •Value at
- •22.3Hedging Short-Term Commitments with Maturity-Matched
- •22.4Hedging and Convenience Yields
- •22.5Hedging Long-Dated Commitments with Short-Maturing FuturesorForward Contracts
- •Intuition for Hedging with a Maturity Mismatch in the Presence of a Constant Convenience Yield
- •22.6Hedging with Swaps
- •22.7Hedging with Options
- •22.8Factor-Based Hedging
- •Instruments
- •22.10Minimum Variance Portfolios and Mean-Variance Analysis
- •22.11Summary and Conclusions
- •23Risk Management
- •23.2Duration
- •23.4Immunization
- •Immunization Using dv01
- •Immunization and Large Changes in Interest Rates
- •23.5Convexity
- •23.6Interest Rate Hedging When the Term Structure Is Not Flat
- •23.7Summary and Conclusions
- •Interest Rate
- •Interest Rate
10.3Economic Value Added (eva)
This chapter’s opening vignette, which described one of the most reprinted articles in
the history of Fortunemagazine, demonstrates that American corporations are wild
about EVAand the related measures of true protability introduced by other consulting
rms. EVAwas originally conceived as an adjustment to accounting earnings that bet-
ter measures how rms are performing.12
However, as this section shows, one of the
keys to EVA’s success is that its implementation provides a system in which managers
are encouraged to take on positive net present value investment projects.
Economic Value Added is simply a way of accounting for the cost of using capi-
tal in computing prot. In contrast to accounting earnings, which charge only for the
interest paid on debt capital, EVAimposes a charge on both debt and equity capital.
Also, while EVAprefers cash ow to accounting earnings, it recognizes that changes
in capital affect cash ow. When initiating a project, for example, the project’s initial
cash ow Cis probably negative because of a large capital expenditure on items such
0
as machines, land, and a factory. Similarly, at the termination date of a project, the cap-
ital is returned to the rm’s investors in the form of cash as the depreciated capital
assets are sold for their salvage value. This reduction in capital tends to make the ter-
minal cash ow Clarge even when the project may not be very protable in its nal
T
year. Along the way, there also may be additional capital expenditures, sales of capital
equipment, or reductions in the value of the capital due to economic depreciation. By
economic depreciation, we mean the reduction in the salvage value of the capital, esti-
mated by what the market is willing to pay for the project’s capital assets at the end
of a period compared with their value when the project is initiated.
One advantage of accounting earnings over cash ow is that the former tends to
smooth out the abrupt changes in cash ow due to changes in capital and to present a
more stable year-to-year picture of operating protability. Proponents of EVAadvocate
that the smoothing (or, to use accounting terminology, amortization) of capital expen-
ditures over the life of the project can be achieved in a more economically sensibleway.
12The
discussion of the accounting rate of return in Section 10.6 illustrates how accounting earnings
can mislead corporate managers.
-
Grinblatt
697 Titman: FinancialIII. Valuing Real Assets
10. Investing in Risk
697 Free© The McGraw
697 HillMarkets and Corporate
Projects
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
342Part IIIValuing Real Assets
Specically, EVAattempts to account for the cash ow impact of capital. To under-
stand how EVAis computed, let
I the date tbook value, adjusted for economic depreciation, of the project’s
t
capital assets (Special cases: at t 0, it is the purchase price; both at
t 1, the date before the project begins, and at t T,the terminal date at
which the assets are sold, I 0)
t
The date tcash ow, C, is broken into the sum of three components:
t
II the reduction in capital from t1 to t13
t1t
Ir a fair charge for the use of capital from t1 to t
t1
EVA a measure of the project’s true economic protability from t1 to t
t
Since EVAis dened as whatever is left over after accounting for the rst two com-
t
ponents, the date tEconomic Value Addedof the cash ow stream is
-
EVA C(II) Ir
(10.2a)
ttt1tt1
Note that if one groups the Iterms in equation (10.2a) together, then
t1
-
EVA CII(1 r)
(10.2b)
tttt1
There are two special cases. At beginning date 0 (as capital did not exist prior to date
0), there is no charge for capital. Hence, at date 0, equation (10.2b) states
EVA CI
000
At the terminal date T,equation (10.2b) implies
EVA CI(1 r)
TTT1
because all of the capital is liquidated at the terminal date, implying I 0.
T
Now discount the EVAstream from date 0 through date T,generating
EVAEVA
12
Discounted EVA stream EVA. . .
0r)r)2
(1(1
EVAEVA
T1T
(1r)T1r)T
(1
Substituting equation (10.2b) into this formula implies
CII(1r)
Discounted EVA stream CI110
001r
CII(1r)
221. . .
(1r)2
CII(1r)CI(1r)
T1T1T2TT1
(1r)T1(1r)T
CCCC
12T1T
C. . .
0rr)2T1r)T
1(1(1r)(1
NPV
Because the Iterms, representing capital, cancel one another in the expression for the
t
discounted EVAstream, the discounted EVAstream is the same as the NPVof the project!
13Reduction
in capital includes the sale of capital assets as well as economic depreciation. Increases in
capital arise from capital expenditures and economic appreciation in the salvage value of a capital asset.
Grinblatt |
III. Valuing Real Assets |
10.
Investing in Risk |
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The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
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Companies, 2002 |
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Chapter 10Investing in Risk-Free Projects
343
Example 10.6 illustrates this point numerically.
Example 10.6:Computing EVAs
Assume that NASA is allowed to select one of three commercial projects for the next space
shuttle mission.Each of these projects has industrial spin-offs that will generate cash for
NASA over the next two periods.The cash ows and NPVs of the projects are described
below.
-
Cash Flow
(in $millions) at Date
NPV at 2%
012
(in $millions)
-
Project A
17.0
12
9
3.42
Project B
16.8
10
11
3.58
Project C
16.9
11
10
3.50
What are the EVAs and the discounted values of the EVAstreams of the three projects?
Assume a discount rate of 2 percent per period and, for simplicity, no changes in capital at
date 1.Also assume that the negative cash ow at date 0 is entirely a capital expenditure,
implying that EVA 0.
0
Answer:The EVAs of the three projects occur only at dates 1 and 2.The following table
gives the six EVAs and their present values for each project.
PV(EVA)
1
PV(EVA)
2
at 2%
EVA(in $millions)EVA(in $millions)(in $millions)
1 2
-
Project A
11.660 1217.0(.02)
8.34 1917.0(.02)17.0
3.42
Project B
9.664 1016.8(.02)
6.14 1116.8(.02)16.8
3.58
Project C
10.662 1116.9(.02)
7.24 1016.9(.02)16.9
3.50
Note, as suggested earlier, that the summed discounted values of EVAand EVAfor
12
the three projects in Example 10.6 (which assumes EVA 0) are the same as their
0
respective NPVs. Result 10.4 states this formally.
-
Result 10.4
The discounted value of the stream of EVAs of a project is the same as the net present valueof the project.
10.4 |
Using NPVforOtherCorporate Decisions |
Although the techniques examined in this chapter have typically been applied only to
the evaluation of capital investments, the introduction of EVAhas had the effect of
getting managers to think about other uses for the net present value rule. These could
include labor strategies, pricing strategies, product development strategies, and so forth.
To illustrate this point, this section considers two examples. The rst, Example 10.7,
analyzes a labor decision.
-
Grinblatt
701 Titman: FinancialIII. Valuing Real Assets
10. Investing in Risk
701 Free© The McGraw
701 HillMarkets and Corporate
Projects
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
344Part IIIValuing Real Assets
Example 10.7:Laying Off Workers as an Investment Decision
Ace Farm Equipment is currently suffering from a slowdown in sales and temporary over-
stafng.The company can save $600,000 at the end of each of the next three years if it
cuts its workforce by 25 individuals.In four years, however, it expects that its market will
improve and that it will have to hire replacements for the 25 individuals who were laid off.
Ace estimates that the cost of hiring and training workers is $100,000 per employee,or
$2.5million for the 25 employees.If the discount rate is 10 percent per year, should Ace
temporarily cut its workforce?
Answer:The incremental cash ows associated with the layoffs are as follows:
Cash Flow (in $millions)
at End of Year
1234
0.60.60.62.5
$.6 million$.6 million$.6 million$2.5 million
NPV$.215 million
1.11.1234
1.11.1
The negative NPVimplies that layoffs destroy shareholder wealth.
Example 10.8 analyzes a project pricing decision.
Example 10.8:Cutting Product Price as an Investment Decision
Assume that Buzz Beers, a local distributor in Akron, Ohio, currently sells about 10,000 cases
of beer per month, which is 15 percent of the Akron market.Management at Buzz Beers is
considering a temporary price cut to attract a larger share of the market.If management
chooses to lower beer prices from $4.00 to $3.80 a case, Buzz Beers will expand its mar-
ket by 50 percent.Elmer Buzz, the CFO, estimates that the beer costs $3.50 per case, so
that the company would be making $5,000 per month with the higher price but only $4,500
per month with the lower price.However, the company plans to stick with the lower price for
two years and then raise the price to $3.90 per case.Management believes that at this higher
price they still will be able to keep their new customers for the subsequent two years, allow-
ing Buzz Beers to generate a monthly cash ow of $6,000 per month in years 3 and 4.If
the discount rate is 1 percent per month, should prices be lowered?
Answer:The incremental cash ows are as follows:
-
Cash Flow at the End of Month
1
2
...242526
...
48
$500
$500
...$500$1,000$1,000
...
$1,000
$500$500$500$1,000$1,000$1,000
NPV $6,109 … …
1.011.01224252648
1.011.011.011.01
The positive NPVmeans that cutting prices is worthwhile.
Grinblatt |
III. Valuing Real Assets |
10.
Investing in Risk |
©
The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
|
Projects |
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
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Chapter 10
Investing in Risk-Free Projects
345
