- •Intended Audience
- •1.1 Financing the Firm
- •1.2Public and Private Sources of Capital
- •1.3The Environment forRaising Capital in the United States
- •Investment Banks
- •1.4Raising Capital in International Markets
- •1.5MajorFinancial Markets outside the United States
- •1.6Trends in Raising Capital
- •Innovative Instruments
- •2.1Bank Loans
- •2.2Leases
- •2.3Commercial Paper
- •2.4Corporate Bonds
- •2.5More Exotic Securities
- •2.6Raising Debt Capital in the Euromarkets
- •2.7Primary and Secondary Markets forDebt
- •2.8Bond Prices, Yields to Maturity, and Bond Market Conventions
- •2.9Summary and Conclusions
- •3.1Types of Equity Securities
- •Volume of Financing with Different Equity Instruments
- •3.2Who Owns u.S. Equities?
- •3.3The Globalization of Equity Markets
- •3.4Secondary Markets forEquity
- •International Secondary Markets for Equity
- •3.5Equity Market Informational Efficiency and Capital Allocation
- •3.7The Decision to Issue Shares Publicly
- •3.8Stock Returns Associated with ipOs of Common Equity
- •Ipo Underpricing of u.S. Stocks
- •4.1Portfolio Weights
- •4.2Portfolio Returns
- •4.3Expected Portfolio Returns
- •4.4Variances and Standard Deviations
- •4.5Covariances and Correlations
- •4.6Variances of Portfolios and Covariances between Portfolios
- •Variances for Two-Stock Portfolios
- •4.7The Mean-Standard Deviation Diagram
- •4.8Interpreting the Covariance as a Marginal Variance
- •Increasing a Stock Position Financed by Reducing orSelling Short the Position in
- •Increasing a Stock Position Financed by Reducing orShorting a Position in a
- •4.9Finding the Minimum Variance Portfolio
- •Identifying the Minimum Variance Portfolio of Two Stocks
- •Identifying the Minimum Variance Portfolio of Many Stocks
- •Investment Applications of Mean-Variance Analysis and the capm
- •5.2The Essentials of Mean-Variance Analysis
- •5.3The Efficient Frontierand Two-Fund Separation
- •5.4The Tangency Portfolio and Optimal Investment
- •Identification of the Tangency Portfolio
- •5.5Finding the Efficient Frontierof Risky Assets
- •5.6How Useful Is Mean-Variance Analysis forFinding
- •5.8The Capital Asset Pricing Model
- •Implications for Optimal Investment
- •5.9Estimating Betas, Risk-Free Returns, Risk Premiums,
- •Improving the Beta Estimated from Regression
- •Identifying the Market Portfolio
- •5.10Empirical Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
- •Is the Value-Weighted Market Index Mean-Variance Efficient?
- •Interpreting the capm’s Empirical Shortcomings
- •5.11 Summary and Conclusions
- •6.1The Market Model:The First FactorModel
- •6.2The Principle of Diversification
- •Insurance Analogies to Factor Risk and Firm-Specific Risk
- •6.3MultifactorModels
- •Interpreting Common Factors
- •6.5FactorBetas
- •6.6Using FactorModels to Compute Covariances and Variances
- •6.7FactorModels and Tracking Portfolios
- •6.8Pure FactorPortfolios
- •6.9Tracking and Arbitrage
- •6.10No Arbitrage and Pricing: The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
- •Verifying the Existence of Arbitrage
- •Violations of the aptEquation fora Small Set of Stocks Do Not Imply Arbitrage.
- •Violations of the aptEquation by Large Numbers of Stocks Imply Arbitrage.
- •6.11Estimating FactorRisk Premiums and FactorBetas
- •6.12Empirical Tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
- •6.13 Summary and Conclusions
- •7.1Examples of Derivatives
- •7.2The Basics of Derivatives Pricing
- •7.3Binomial Pricing Models
- •7.4Multiperiod Binomial Valuation
- •7.5Valuation Techniques in the Financial Services Industry
- •7.6Market Frictions and Lessons from the Fate of Long-Term
- •7.7Summary and Conclusions
- •8.1ADescription of Options and Options Markets
- •8.2Option Expiration
- •8.3Put-Call Parity
- •Insured Portfolio
- •8.4Binomial Valuation of European Options
- •8.5Binomial Valuation of American Options
- •Valuing American Options on Dividend-Paying Stocks
- •8.6Black-Scholes Valuation
- •8.7Estimating Volatility
- •Volatility
- •8.8Black-Scholes Price Sensitivity to Stock Price, Volatility,
- •Interest Rates, and Expiration Time
- •8.9Valuing Options on More Complex Assets
- •Implied volatility
- •8.11 Summary and Conclusions
- •9.1 Cash Flows ofReal Assets
- •9.2Using Discount Rates to Obtain Present Values
- •Value Additivity and Present Values of Cash Flow Streams
- •Inflation
- •9.3Summary and Conclusions
- •10.1Cash Flows
- •10.2Net Present Value
- •Implications of Value Additivity When Evaluating Mutually Exclusive Projects.
- •10.3Economic Value Added (eva)
- •10.5Evaluating Real Investments with the Internal Rate of Return
- •Intuition for the irrMethod
- •10.7 Summary and Conclusions
- •10A.1Term Structure Varieties
- •10A.2Spot Rates, Annuity Rates, and ParRates
- •11.1Tracking Portfolios and Real Asset Valuation
- •Implementing the Tracking Portfolio Approach
- •11.2The Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Method
- •11.3The Effect of Leverage on Comparisons
- •11.4Implementing the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Formula with
- •11.5Pitfalls in Using the Comparison Method
- •11.6Estimating Beta from Scenarios: The Certainty Equivalent Method
- •Identifying the Certainty Equivalent from Models of Risk and Return
- •11.7Obtaining Certainty Equivalents with Risk-Free Scenarios
- •Implementing the Risk-Free Scenario Method in a Multiperiod Setting
- •11.8Computing Certainty Equivalents from Prices in Financial Markets
- •11.9Summary and Conclusions
- •11A.1Estimation Errorand Denominator-Based Biases in Present Value
- •11A.2Geometric versus Arithmetic Means and the Compounding-Based Bias
- •12.2Valuing Strategic Options with the Real Options Methodology
- •Valuing a Mine with No Strategic Options
- •Valuing a Mine with an Abandonment Option
- •Valuing Vacant Land
- •Valuing the Option to Delay the Start of a Manufacturing Project
- •Valuing the Option to Expand Capacity
- •Valuing Flexibility in Production Technology: The Advantage of Being Different
- •12.3The Ratio Comparison Approach
- •12.4The Competitive Analysis Approach
- •12.5When to Use the Different Approaches
- •Valuing Asset Classes versus Specific Assets
- •12.6Summary and Conclusions
- •13.1Corporate Taxes and the Evaluation of Equity-Financed
- •Identifying the Unlevered Cost of Capital
- •13.2The Adjusted Present Value Method
- •Valuing a Business with the wacc Method When a Debt Tax Shield Exists
- •Investments
- •IsWrong
- •Valuing Cash Flow to Equity Holders
- •13.5Summary and Conclusions
- •14.1The Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •IsFalse
- •14.2How an Individual InvestorCan “Undo” a Firm’s Capital
- •14.3How Risky Debt Affects the Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •14.4How Corporate Taxes Affect the Capital Structure Choice
- •14.6Taxes and Preferred Stock
- •14.7Taxes and Municipal Bonds
- •14.8The Effect of Inflation on the Tax Gain from Leverage
- •14.10Are There Tax Advantages to Leasing?
- •14.11Summary and Conclusions
- •15.1How Much of u.S. Corporate Earnings Is Distributed to Shareholders?Aggregate Share Repurchases and Dividends
- •15.2Distribution Policy in Frictionless Markets
- •15.3The Effect of Taxes and Transaction Costs on Distribution Policy
- •15.4How Dividend Policy Affects Expected Stock Returns
- •15.5How Dividend Taxes Affect Financing and Investment Choices
- •15.6Personal Taxes, Payout Policy, and Capital Structure
- •15.7Summary and Conclusions
- •16.1Bankruptcy
- •16.3How Chapter11 Bankruptcy Mitigates Debt Holder–Equity HolderIncentive Problems
- •16.4How Can Firms Minimize Debt Holder–Equity Holder
- •Incentive Problems?
- •17.1The StakeholderTheory of Capital Structure
- •17.2The Benefits of Financial Distress with Committed Stakeholders
- •17.3Capital Structure and Competitive Strategy
- •17.4Dynamic Capital Structure Considerations
- •17.6 Summary and Conclusions
- •18.1The Separation of Ownership and Control
- •18.2Management Shareholdings and Market Value
- •18.3How Management Control Distorts Investment Decisions
- •18.4Capital Structure and Managerial Control
- •Investment Strategy?
- •18.5Executive Compensation
- •Is Executive Pay Closely Tied to Performance?
- •Is Executive Compensation Tied to Relative Performance?
- •19.1Management Incentives When Managers Have BetterInformation
- •19.2Earnings Manipulation
- •Incentives to Increase or Decrease Accounting Earnings
- •19.4The Information Content of Dividend and Share Repurchase
- •19.5The Information Content of the Debt-Equity Choice
- •19.6Empirical Evidence
- •19.7Summary and Conclusions
- •20.1AHistory of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.2Types of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.3 Recent Trends in TakeoverActivity
- •20.4Sources of TakeoverGains
- •Is an Acquisition Required to Realize Tax Gains, Operating Synergies,
- •Incentive Gains, or Diversification?
- •20.5The Disadvantages of Mergers and Acquisitions
- •20.7Empirical Evidence on the Gains from Leveraged Buyouts (lbOs)
- •20.8 Valuing Acquisitions
- •Valuing Synergies
- •20.9Financing Acquisitions
- •Information Effects from the Financing of a Merger or an Acquisition
- •20.10Bidding Strategies in Hostile Takeovers
- •20.11Management Defenses
- •20.12Summary and Conclusions
- •21.1Risk Management and the Modigliani-MillerTheorem
- •Implications of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Hedging
- •21.2Why Do Firms Hedge?
- •21.4How Should Companies Organize TheirHedging Activities?
- •21.8Foreign Exchange Risk Management
- •Indonesia
- •21.9Which Firms Hedge? The Empirical Evidence
- •21.10Summary and Conclusions
- •22.1Measuring Risk Exposure
- •Volatility as a Measure of Risk Exposure
- •Value at Risk as a Measure of Risk Exposure
- •22.2Hedging Short-Term Commitments with Maturity-Matched
- •Value at
- •22.3Hedging Short-Term Commitments with Maturity-Matched
- •22.4Hedging and Convenience Yields
- •22.5Hedging Long-Dated Commitments with Short-Maturing FuturesorForward Contracts
- •Intuition for Hedging with a Maturity Mismatch in the Presence of a Constant Convenience Yield
- •22.6Hedging with Swaps
- •22.7Hedging with Options
- •22.8Factor-Based Hedging
- •Instruments
- •22.10Minimum Variance Portfolios and Mean-Variance Analysis
- •22.11Summary and Conclusions
- •23Risk Management
- •23.2Duration
- •23.4Immunization
- •Immunization Using dv01
- •Immunization and Large Changes in Interest Rates
- •23.5Convexity
- •23.6Interest Rate Hedging When the Term Structure Is Not Flat
- •23.7Summary and Conclusions
- •Interest Rate
- •Interest Rate
23.7Summary and Conclusions
This chapter described several tools that are important forbond portfolio management and corporate financial man-agement of fixed-income securities and interest rate risk.Managers can use these tools to better understand therelation between yield and market price in order to man-age interest rate risk. Among the tools discussed in thechapter were:
•The concept of DV01,in original and term
structure variations, which is a measure of the
slope of the price-yield curve.
•The concept of duration, in MacAuley, modified,
and present value variations, which is a weighted
average of the time at which a set of cash flows is
received.
•The link between duration and DV01and the
formulas needed to use either of them for hedging.
•Immunization and contingent immunization, using
both duration and DV01,which are methods of
converting the cash flows of a bond portfolio into
the cash flows of a zero-coupon bond.
•The link between immunization and hedging and
how to use this link for managing the asset base
and capital structure of financial institutions and
for managing a bond portfolio.
•The concept of convexity, which is similar to the
slope of the price-yield curve, and how it can be
properly used and misused.
The yield curve is not flat and does not shift in a par-allel fashion which complicates the use of these tools. Par-allel shifts lead to arbitrage, thus making it incumbent uponthose who desire a more rigorous analysis of interest ratehedging to develop a sophisticated model of the term struc-ture of interest rates that precludes such arbitrage.Final Remarks.Wall Street firms have developed anumber of sophisticated models that are used to value com-plicated interest rate derivatives, like the “inverse floater”sold to Orange County (see the opening vignette of thischapter). The basic structure of these interest rate deriva-tives valuation models is similar to that of the binomialmodel in Chapter 7. However, here, the risk neutral valua-tion accounts for interest rate factors that evolve along
trees (or grids) with move sizes for these factors deter-mined by the term structure of interest rates and volatility.The level of mathematical sophistication in these models isbeyond the scope of any textbook geared toward thoseseeking a general understanding of corporate finance andfinancial markets. Indeed, the rocket science associatedwith these models has given the rocket scientists—oftenPh.D.’s in mathematics, statistics, economics, physics, andfinance—an unprecedented degree of prestige, compensa-tion, and control over the management and valuation of in-terest rate derivatives.
The level of technical sophistication in corporate fi-nance has also increased considerably over the last twodecades. In some cases, nonfinancial corporations are hir-ing these same rocket scientists to oversee their hedgingoperations. However, this is still the exception. After 23chapters, our message to you is that no matter how sophis-ticated either investment management or corporate man-agement becomes, there are some fundamental principlesin finance that will always be useful.
We believe, for example, that understanding the toolsdescribed in this text is all that is necessary to recognize therisk in Orange County’s investment in inverse floaters andto skirt the disasters from misguided derivatives trades thathave befallen numerous other firms. Aserious student ofthis text, for example, would recognize (perhaps after a bitof thought) that an Orange County inverse floater could betracked by a portfolio with a weight of 3 on a fixed-ratestraight coupon bond and a weight of 2 on par floatingrate bonds. Since the floating rate bond’s duration is zero,this portfolio has three times the duration of a straightcoupon bond (see Result 23.3), and hence, is extremelysensitive to interest rate changes.
In short, one of the basic principles developed in thistextbook—the formation of portfolios to track an invest-ment with risks one is familiar with—can be used to un-derstand the risk of a highly complex security, like an in-verse floater. The lesson here is that one does not needadvanced mathematics or Wall Street’s sophisticated mod-els to master finance. One must, however, go beyond a su-perficial understanding of finance and master its basicprinciples to succeed as a finance professional in the 21stcentury. We wrote this text in the hopes of contributing tosuch an understanding.
Grinblatt |
VI. Risk Management |
23. Interest Rate Risk |
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The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
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Management |
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
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Chapter 23
Interest Rate Risk Management
851
Key Concepts
Result 23.1:If the term structure of interest rates isResult 23.4:Because DV01can be translated into
flat, a bond portfolio with a DV01of zeroduration and vice versa, DV01and
has no sensitivity to interest rateduration are equivalent as tools both for
movements.measuring interest rate risk and forResult 23.2:Let rand rdenote the yield to maturityhedging.
nm
of the same bond computed with yieldsResult 23.5:If the term structure of interest rates is
compounded ntimes a year and mtimes aflat, immunization “guarantees” a fixed
year, respectively. The DV01for a bondvalue for an immunized portfolio at a
(or portfolio) using compounding of mhorizon date. The value obtained is the
times a year is (1 r n) (1 r m)same as the face value of a zero-coupon
nm
times the DV01of the bond using abond with (1) the same market value as
compounding frequency of ntimes a year.the original portfolio and (2) a maturity
Result 23.3:Assuming that the term structure ofdate equal to the horizon date selected as
interest rates is flat, the duration of athe target date to which the duration of
portfolio of bonds is the portfolio-the immunized portfolio is fixed.
weighted average of the durations of the
respective bonds in the portfolio.
Key Terms
contingent immunization |
838 |
MacAuley duration847 |
convexity819 |
|
modified duration831 |
duration826 |
|
present value duration848 |
DV01820 |
|
term structure DV01847 |
effective duration832 |
|
yield beta846 |
immunization819 |
|
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Exercises
23.1. |
A3-year coupon bond has payments as follows: |
23.2.Prove that if the present value of a cash flow is |
|
|
represented by |
-
PV (cash flow) exp(rt)
t
Bond Cash Flow at Year
and for all t’s, rshifts up by a constant , the
t
123
derivative of the percentage change in the bond’sprice with respect to equals the negative of
$8$8$108
present value duration; that is
1dP
(present value) DUR
This 8 percent coupon bond is currently trading at
Pd
par ($100).
a.What is the annually compounded yield of the23.3.Bond Ahas a DV01of $.10 per $100 face value.
bond?Bond B has a DV01of $.05 per $100 face value.
b.Compute the MacAuley duration and ordinarya.If Daniela buys $1 million (face amount) of
DV01(calculated with respect to the annuallybond A, what should her position (face amount)
compounded bond yield).in bond B be in order to hedge out all interest
c.Using DV01, how much do you expect thisrate risk on the portfolio?
bond’s price to rise if the yield on the bondb.If bond Aand bond B are par bonds (that is,
declines by 10 basis points compoundedthey have prices equal to their face values and
annually?have equal yields to maturity), what dollar
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Grinblatt
1713 Titman: FinancialVI. Risk Management
23. Interest Rate Risk
© The McGraw
1713 HillMarkets and Corporate
Management
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
852Part VIRisk Management
|
amount needs to be spent on bonds Aand B to |
b.What is the present value duration of the |
|
immunize the bond portfolio to a horizon of |
straight-coupon bond given the market value of |
|
seven years if $1 million is spent on the |
the bond computed in part a? |
|
portfolio? (Assume that the DV01s were |
c.Assume you hold $1 million face value of the |
|
calculated with respect to a 1 basis point |
straight-coupon bond. How much in market |
|
decline in each bond’s continuously |
value of a 3-year, zero-coupon bond should you |
|
compoundedyield to maturity.) |
hold (in addition to the straight-coupon bond |
23.4. |
The DV01of a Treasury bond maturing on |
position) to have an overall position that is |
|
November 15, 2021, with an 8 percent coupon |
perfectly hedged against a parallel shift in the |
|
(4percent paid semiannually) and a $100 face |
term structure? |
|
value is $.10. The DV01of a Treasury note |
23.6.Compute the duration, DV01,and convexity of a |
|
maturing on May 15, 2012, with a 7 percent |
semiannual straight-coupon bond with three years |
|
coupon (3.5 percent paid semiannually) and a |
to maturity. The bond trades at par with a 6 |
|
$100 face value is $.06. |
percent coupon. Assume the term structure of |
|
a.What is the accrued interest (per $100 face |
interest rates is flat. |
|
value) to be paid on both the bond and the note |
23.7.Compute the duration, DV01,and convexity of a |
|
for a purchase with a settlement date of June |
6percent 2-year par bond that pays semiannual |
|
11, 2002, for each of these fixed-income |
coupons. Assume the term structure of interest |
|
securities? Hint: See Chapter 2. |
rates is flat. |
|
b.If you held a position of $1 million (face value) |
|
|
|
23.8.Discuss how you might use the 6 percent 2-year |
|
in the Treasury bond, what position should you |
|
|
|
bond in exercise 23.7 to hedge a position in the |
|
hold in the Treasury note to eliminate all |
|
|
|
3-year bond from exercise 23.6. |
|
interest rate risk? |
|
|
|
23.9.How would your answer to exercise 23.8 change if |
23.5. |
A2-year default-free straight-coupon bond has |
|
|
|
the bond in exercise 23.7 were a 10 percent 2-year |
|
annual coupons of $8 per $100 of face value. |
|
|
|
premium bond with a yield curve still at a flat 6 |
|
Assume that a default-free zero-coupon bond with |
|
|
|
percent? |
|
one year to maturity sells for $90 per $100 of face |
|
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|
23.10.Discuss qualitatively how your answer to exercise |
|
value and that a default-free zero-coupon bond |
|
|
|
23.8 would change if the bond in exercise 23.7 |
|
with two years to maturity sells for $80 per $100 |
|
|
|
was a 10 percent 2-year par bond. (This means |
|
of face value. |
|
|
|
that the term structure of interest rates is not flat.) |
|
a.What is the no-arbitrage price of the straight- |
|
|
coupon 8 percent bond? |
|
References and Additional Readings
Fabozzi, Frank. Bond Markets, Analysis, and Strategies.Yields, and Stock Prices in the U.S. since 1856.New
3d ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1996.York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938.Kopprasch, Robert. “Understanding Duration andRedington, F. M. “Review of the Principle of Life-Office
Volatility.” New York: Salomon Brothers, 1985;Valuations.” Journal of the Institute of Actuaries78
reprinted in The Handbook of Fixed-Income(1952), pp. 286–340.
Securities,Frank Fabozzi and Irving Pollack, eds.Tuckman, Bruce. Fixed Income Securities: Tools for
Burr Ridge, IL: Irwin Professional Publishing, 1996.Today’s Markets.New York: John Wiley, 1995.
MacAuley, Frederick. Some Theoretical Problems
Suggested by the Movement of Interest Rates, Bond
Grinblatt |
VI. Risk Management |
23. Interest Rate Risk |
©
The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
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Management |
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
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Chapter 23Interest Rate Risk Management |
853 |
PRACTICALINSIGHTSFORPARTVI |
|
Allocating Capital forReal Investment
•Managers are likely to make better capital allocation
decisions if they hedge their risks because it forces
them to use forward and futures prices in their
calculations of NPVrather than potentially ad hoc
estimates of expected value. (Section 21.2)
•Firms sometimes build plants in foreign countries in
which they sell their products as a substitute for
hedging when it is difficult to effectively hedge real
exchange rate risk. (Section 21.8)
Financing the Firm
•The Modigliani-Miller Theorem is very general and
implies that, in the absence of market frictions, firms
are indifferent about the currencies of their debt
obligations and the maturity structure of their debt as
well as their debt-equity ratio. (Section 21.1)
•Firms that use derivatives to reduce their probability of
financial distress can create value by increasing their
debt ratio without increasing their probability of
financial distress. (Section 21.2)
•Firms that have high leverage ratios, but also potentially
have high financial distress costs, are more likely to use
derivatives to hedge. (Section 21.2)
•In general, hedging will benefit debt holders at the
expense of equity holders. (Section 21.6)
•Firms can sometimes reduce their funding costs by
combining debt instruments with swaps and other
derivatives. (Sections 21.7, 22.6)
Knowing Whetherand How to Hedge Risk•Firms can benefit from hedging even when shareholders
are not averse to risk. (Section 21.2)
•Firms that are uncertain about whether or not they will
have positive tax liabilities have an incentive to hedge.
(Section 21.2)
•Firms benefit from hedging if it allows them to avoid
the possibility of costly financial distress. (Section 21.2)•Firms benefit from hedging when external sources of
capital are more expensive than internal sources of
capital. However, when investment opportunities are
positively correlated with the hedgeable risk, firms
should only partially hedge. Options may prove to be a
particularly good hedging vehicle in this case. (Sections
21.2, 22.7)
•Management performance can be evaluated more
accurately if managers are required to hedge extraneous
risks. (Section 21.2)
•In most cases, firms benefit from hedging real rather
than strictly nominal exchange rate changes. (Section
21.8)
•Factor models are perhaps the best way to think about a
firm’s risk exposure. (Sections 21.1, 22.1, 22.8)
•Regression slope coefficients give risk-minimizing
hedge ratios. (Section 22.9)
•Even though futures and forward prices are often
virtually identical, hedge ratios using futures can vastly
differ from hedge ratios using forwards. In particular,
hedges with futures need to be tailed and thus are
generally lower than hedge ratios involving forwards.
(Section 22.3)
•The convenience yield of an asset or commodity affects
the hedge ratio when hedging long-term commitments
with short-term forwards or futures. The larger is the
convenience yield, the more correlated it is with the
price of the commodity, and the more unpredictable it
is, the lower is the risk minimizing hedge ratio.
(Sections 22.4, 22.5)
•Firms that set the ratio of the duration of assets and
liabilities to the inverse of the ratios of their market
values will have equity with a DV01of 0 which means
that their stock price is insensitive to interest rate risk.
(Section 23.3)
•It is possible to lock in (that is, immunize) the future
value of an interest rate sensitive liability or asset at a
horizon date by managing the liability to have a
duration that is matched to the horizon date. (Section
23.4)
•Even though DV01and duration are relatively simple
risk estimation and risk management tools in
comparison with the techniques on Wall Street, they
often provide good approximations of the interest rate
risk of an asset or liability and offer useful insights into
risk and hedging. (Sections 23.1–23.3, 23.7)
Allocating Funds forFinancial Investments
•Bond portfolios that are managed to have DV01s or
durations of zero have no interest rate risk. (Section
23.3)
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Grinblatt
1717 Titman: FinancialVI. Risk Management
23. Interest Rate Risk
© The McGraw
1717 HillMarkets and Corporate
Management
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
854Part VIRisk Management
EXECUTIVEPERSPECTIVE
David C. Shimko
The failure to account for and control risks has led, fortu-nately and unfortunately, to several risk management andderivatives disasters since the mid-1980s. Unfortunately,shareholders and taxpayers have unwittingly borne thefallout of these debacles. Fortunately, we now have theopportunity to learn from these mistakes.
These are the lessons taught in Part VI of Grinblatt andTitman’s text. Corporate managers who think that riskmanagement is the province of back-office quants1
shouldread this material, if not for the value in itself, then for theability to use the lessons learned to monitor those who takerisks. We should learn from the past, as Santayana said,“lest we be condemned to repeat it.”
The analysis of Metallgesellschaft AG’s poorly con-ceived hedge, and its implications at the corporate level, isaccurate and easy to follow. Clearly, either hedging wasnot MG’s intent, or hedging was entrusted to managerswith insufficient judgment or experience to hedgeproperly. Alarmingly, the same mistakes are repeated con-stantly in companies around the world. Fortunately formany of these companies, losses have mostly been eithersmall, underscrutinized, or labeled as hedges for account-ing purposes and lost in the paperwork. After studying theMG case, no corporate risk manager should undertake aone-for-one hedge of a longer-dated exposure with ashorter-dated one. Ironically, we know this lesson well inthe interest rate markets. The presentation in Grinblatt andTitman helps us bridge that intuitive gap and apply finan-cial markets knowledge broadly to the practice of corpo-rate finance.
It’s easy to focus on the potential costs of ignoring riskmanagement and thereby miss the hidden opportunitycosts. For example, the value-at-risk (VaR) concept helpsmany managers measure the potential loss associated withan investment activity. Indeed, J.P. Morgan scored a major
coup with the RiskMetrics™product, a relatively simpleanalytic means to determine VaR transparently. Detractorshave rightly argued that the methodology could beimproved, but they are missing the main point. The criticalimportance of VaR is that one can use it to measure riskand, thereby, risk-adjusted performance. VaR is fastbecoming a measure of capital that, for many purposes,works better than traditional capital measures. That is,regardless of the cost of a project, its performance shouldbe measured relative to the capital it actually places at risk.A$100 million mine and a zero-cost swap have the samerisk if both might lose $40 million. Their performanceshould be measured relative to the $40 million value-at-risk, not the cash investment.
Since the mid-1970s, managers have mastered the con-cept of value-added (or EVA, economic value added, orNPV, net present value). In the next 20 years, I hope thesame can be said of VaR and risk management.
The best managed corporations are starting to evaluaterisk and capital management in the same framework. PeterRugg, the CFO of Triton, funded a greater proportion ofhis company’s Colombian oil production with debt than heotherwise would have been able to do because he hadhedged against oil price fluctuations. Essentially, he con-served equity capital by replacing it with contingent capi-tal provided by hedging. (Translation:Swaps markets borethe oil price risk instead of equity holders.) The equity cap-ital was released to seek higher returns elsewhere.
The messages for risk management are clear.Defensively, we need risk management to know our poten-tial losses and to facilitate planning to protect ourselvesagainst those losses. Progressively, we need risk manage-ment to help us make better investment decisions. Everycorporate executive will someday be seen as a riskmanager—only some don’t know this yet! This book willhelp those executives be better risk managers at first, andbetter managers in the end.
1Quants are employees with considerable quantitative
Dr. Shimko is President of Risk Capital Management Partners, LLC
background or experience, typically hired by a trading floor or
(www.e-rcm.com) specializing in risk management consulting services torisk management department to build mathematical models for
the energy industry. Previously, he headed a consulting group at Bankerspricing and risk assessment.Trust and a risk management research group at JPMorgan.
Grinblatt |
VI. Risk Management |
23. Interest Rate Risk |
©
The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
|
Management |
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
|
|
|
-
Grinblatt
1720 Titman: FinancialBack Matter
Appendix A
© The McGraw
1720 HillMarkets and Corporate
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
APPENDIXA
MATHEMATICALTABLES
ABLEA.1 |
Future Value of $1 at the End of tPeriods (1 r)t |
T |
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Rate |
|
|
|
|
Period |
1% |
2% |
3% |
4%5% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
-
1
1.0100
1.0200
1.0300
1.0400
1.0500
1.0600
1.0700
1.0800
1.0900
2
1.0201
1.0404
1.0609
1.0816
1.1025
1.1236
1.1449
1.1664
1.1881
3
1.0303
1.0612
1.0927
1.1249
1.1576
1.1910
1.2250
1.2597
1.2950
4
1.0406
1.0824
1.1255
1.1699
1.2155
1.2625
1.3108
1.3605
1.4116
5
1.0510
1.1041
1.1593
1.2167
1.2763
1.3382
1.4026
1.4693
1.5386
-
6
1.0615
1.1262
1.1941
1.2653
1.3401
1.4185
1.5007
1.5869
1.6671
7
1.0721
1.1487
1.2299
1.3159
1.4071
1.5036
1.6058
1.7138
1.8280
8
1.0829
1.1717
1.2668
1.3686
1.4775
1.5938
1.7182
1.8509
1.9926
9
1.0937
1.1951
1.3048
1.4233
1.5513
1.6895
1.8385
1.9990
2.1719
10
1.1046
1.2190
1.3439
1.4802
1.6289
1.7908
1.9672
2.1589
2.3674
-
11
1.1157
1.2434
1.3842
1.5395
1.7103
1.8983
2.1049
2.3316
2.5804
12
1.1268
1.2682
1.4258
1.6010
1.7959
2.0122
2.2522
2.5182
2.8127
13
1.1381
1.2936
1.4685
1.6651
1.8856
2.1329
2.4098
2.7196
3.0658
14
1.1495
1.3195
1.5126
1.7317
1.9799
2.2609
2.5785
2.9372
3.3417
15
1.1610
1.3459
1.5580
1.8009
2.0789
2.3966
2.7590
3.1722
3.6425
-
16
1.1726
1.3728
1.6047
1.8730
2.1829
2.5404
2.9522
3.4259
3.9703
17
1.1843
1.4002
1.6528
1.9479
2.2920
2.6928
3.1588
3.7000
4.3276
18
1.1961
1.4282
1.7024
2.0258
2.4066
2.8543
3.3799
3.9960
4.7171
19
1.2081
1.4568
1.7535
2.1068
2.5270
3.0256
3.6165
4.3157
5.1417
20
1.2202
1.4859
1.8061
2.1911
2.6533
3.2071
3.8697
4.6610
5.6044
-
21
1.2324
1.5157
1.8603
2.2788
2.7860
3.3996
4.1406
5.0338
6.1088
22
1.2447
1.5460
1.9161
2.3699
2.9253
3.6035
4.4304
5.4365
6.6586
23
1.2572
1.5769
1.9736
2.4647
3.0715
3.8197
4.7405
5.8715
7.2579
24
1.2697
1.6084
2.0328
2.5633
3.2251
4.0489
5.0724
6.3412
7.9111
25
1.2824
1.6406
2.0938
2.6658
3.3864
4.2919
5.4274
6.8485
8.6231
-
30
1.3478
1.8114
2.4273
3.2434
4.3219
5.7435
7.6123
10.063
13.268
40
1.4889
2.2080
3.2620
4.8010
7.0400
10.286
14.974
21.725
31.409
50
1.6446
2.6916
4.3839
7.1067
11.467
18.420
29.457
46.902
74.358
60
1.8167
3.2810
5.8916
10.520
18.679
32.988
57.946
101.26
176.03
856
Grinblatt |
Back Matter |
Appendix A |
©
The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
|
|
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
|
|
|
-
Mathematical Tables
857
TABLEA.1(concluded)
-
Interest Rate
10%
12%
14%
15%
16%18%20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
1.10001.12001.14001.15001.16001.18001.20001.24001.28001.32001.3600
1.21001.25441.29961.32251.34561.39241.44001.53761.63841.74241.8496
1.33101.40491.48151.52091.56091.64301.72801.90662.09722.30002.5155
1.46411.57351.68901.74901.81061.93882.07362.36422.68443.03603.4210
1.61051.76231.92542.01142.10032.28782.48832.93163.43604.00754.6526
1.77161.97382.19502.31312.43642.69962.98603.63524.39805.28996.3275
1.94872.21072.50232.66002.82623.18553.58324.50775.62956.98268.6054
2.14362.47602.85263.05903.27843.75894.29985.58957.20589.217011.703
2.35792.77313.25193.51793.80304.43555.15986.93109.223412.16615.917
2.59373.10583.70724.04564.41145.23386.19178.594411.80616.06021.647
2.85313.47854.22624.65245.11736.17597.430110.65715.11221.19929.439
3.13843.89604.81795.35035.93607.28768.916113.21519.34327.98340.037
3.45234.36355.49246.15286.88588.599410.69916.38624.75936.93754.451
3.79754.88716.26137.07577.987510.14712.83920.31931.69148.75774.053
4.17725.47367.13798.13719.265511.97415.40725.19640.56564.359100.712
4.59506.13048.13729.357610.74814.12918.48831.24351.92384.954136.97
5.05456.86609.276510.76112.46816.67222.18638.74166.461112.14186.28
5.55997.690010.57512.37514.46319.67326.62348.03985.071148.02253.34
6.11598.612812.05614.23216.77723.21431.94859.568108.89195.39344.54
6.72759.646313.74316.36719.46127.39338.33873.864139.38257.92468.57
7.400210.80415.66818.82222.57432.32446.00591.592178.41340.45637.26
8.140312.10017.86121.64526.18638.14255.206113.57228.36449.39866.67
8.954313.55220.36224.89130.37645.00866.247140.83292.30593.201178.7
9.849715.17923.21228.62535.23653.10979.497174.63374.14783.021603.0
10.83517.00026.46232.91940.87462.66995.396216.54478.901033.62180.1
17.449 |
29.960 |
50.950 |
66.212 |
85.850 |
143.37 |
237.38 |
634.821645.54142.110143. |
45.259 |
93.051 |
188.88 |
267.86 |
378.72 |
750.38 |
1469.8 |
5455.919427.66521.* |
117.39 |
289.00 |
700.23 |
1083.7 |
1670.7 |
3927.4 |
9100.4 |
46890.*** |
304.48 |
897.60 |
2595.9 |
4384.0 |
7370.2 |
20555. |
56348. |
**** |
*The factor is greater than 99,999.
-
Grinblatt
1723 Titman: FinancialBack Matter
Appendix A
© The McGraw
1723 HillMarkets and Corporate
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
858 |
Appendix A |
TABLEA.2Present Value of $1 to be Received aftertPeriods 1/(1 r)t
|
|
|
|
Interest Rate |
|
|
|
|
Period |
1% |
2% |
3% |
4%5% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
-
1
0.9901
0.9804
0.9709
0.9615
0.9524
0.9434
0.9346
0.9259
0.9174
2
0.9803
0.9612
0.9426
0.9246
0.9070
0.8900
0.8734
0.8573
0.8417
3
0.9706
0.9423
0.9151
0.8890
0.8638
0.8396
0.8163
0.7938
0.7722
4
0.9610
0.9238
0.8885
0.8548
0.8227
0.7921
0.7629
0.7350
0.7084
5
0.9515
0.9057
0.8626
0.8219
0.7835
0.7473
0.7130
0.6806
0.6499
-
6
0.9420
0.8880
0.8375
0.7903
0.7462
0.7050
0.6663
0.6302
0.5963
7
0.9327
0.8706
0.8131
0.7599
0.7107
0.6651
0.6227
0.5835
0.5470
8
0.9235
0.8535
0.7894
0.7307
0.6768
0.6274
0.5820
0.5403
0.5019
9
0.9143
0.8368
0.7664
0.7026
0.6446
0.5919
0.5439
0.5002
0.4604
10
0.9053
0.8203
0.7441
0.6756
0.6139
0.5584
0.5083
0.4632
0.4224
-
11
0.8963
0.8043
0.7224
0.6496
0.5847
0.5268
0.4751
0.4289
0.3875
12
0.8874
0.7885
0.7014
0.6246
0.5568
0.4970
0.4440
0.3971
0.3555
13
0.8787
0.7730
0.6810
0.6006
0.5303
0.4688
0.4150
0.3677
0.3262
14
0.8700
0.7579
0.6611
0.5775
0.5051
0.4423
0.3878
0.3405
0.2992
15
0.8613
0.7430
0.6419
0.5553
0.4810
0.4173
0.3624
0.3152
0.2745
-
16
0.8528
0.7284
0.6232
0.5339
0.4581
0.3936
0.3387
0.2919
0.2519
17
0.8444
0.7142
0.6050
0.5134
0.4363
0.3714
0.3166
0.2703
0.2311
18
0.8360
0.7002
0.5874
0.4936
0.4155
0.3503
0.2959
0.2502
0.2120
19
0.8277
0.6864
0.5703
0.4746
0.3957
0.3305
0.2765
0.2317
0.1945
20
0.8195
0.6730
0.5537
0.4564
0.3769
0.3118
0.2584
0.2145
0.1784
-
21
0.8114
0.6598
0.5375
0.4388
0.3589
0.2942
0.2415
0.1987
0.1637
22
0.8034
0.6468
0.5219
0.4220
0.3418
0.2775
0.2257
0.1839
0.1502
23
0.7954
0.6342
0.5067
0.4057
0.3256
0.2618
0.2109
0.1703
0.1378
24
0.7876
0.6217
0.4919
0.3901
0.3101
0.2470
0.1971
0.1577
0.1264
25
0.7798
0.6095
0.4776
0.3751
0.2953
0.2330
0.1842
0.1460
0.1160
-
30
0.7419
0.5521
0.4120
0.3083
0.2314
0.1741
0.1314
0.0994
0.0754
40
0.6717
0.4529
0.3066
0.2083
0.1420
0.0972
0.0668
0.0460
0.0318
50
0.6080
0.3715
0.2281
0.1407
0.0872
0.0543
0.0339
0.0213
0.0134
Grinblatt |
Back Matter |
Appendix A |
©
The McGraw |
Markets and Corporate |
|
|
Companies, 2002 |
Strategy, Second Edition |
|
|
|
-
Mathematical Tables
859
TABLEA.2(concluded)
-
Interest Rate
10%
12%
14%
15%
16%18%20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
0.90910.89290.87720.86960.86210.84750.83330.80650.78130.75760.7353
0.82640.79720.76950.75610.74320.71820.69440.65040.61040.57390.5407
0.75130.71180.67500.65750.64070.60860.57870.52450.47680.43480.3975
0.68300.63550.59210.57180.55230.51580.48230.42300.37250.32940.2923
0.62090.56740.51940.49720.47610.43710.40190.34110.29100.24950.2149
0.56450.50660.45560.42320.41040.37040.33490.27510.22740.18900.1580
0.51320.45230.39960.37590.35380.31390.27910.22180.17760.14320.1162
0.46650.40390.35060.32690.30500.26600.23260.17890.13880.10850.0854
0.42410.36060.30750.28430.26300.22550.19380.14430.10840.08220.0628
0.38550.32200.26970.24720.22670.19110.16150.11640.08470.06230.0462
0.35050.28750.23660.21490.19540.16190.13460.09380.06620.04720.0340
0.31860.25670.20760.18690.16850.13720.11220.07570.05170.03570.0250
0.28970.22920.18210.16250.14520.11630.09350.06100.04040.02710.0184
0.26330.20460.15970.14130.12520.09850.07790.04920.03160.02050.0135
0.23940.18270.14010.12290.10790.08350.06490.03970.02470.01550.0099
0.21760.16310.12290.10690.09300.07080.05410.03200.01930.01180.0073
0.19780.14560.10780.09290.08020.06000.04510.02580.01500.00890.0054
0.17990.13000.09460.08080.06910.05080.03760.02080.01180.00680.0039
0.16350.11610.08290.07030.05960.04310.03130.01680.00920.00510.0029
0.14860.10370.07280.06110.05140.03650.02610.01350.00720.00390.0021
0.13510.09260.06380.05310.04430.03090.02170.01090.00560.00290.0016
0.12280.08260.05600.04620.03820.02620.01810.00880.00440.00220.0012
0.11170.07380.04910.04020.03290.02220.01510.00710.00340.00170.0008
0.10150.06590.04310.03490.02840.01880.01260.00570.00270.00130.0006
0.09230.05880.03780.03040.02450.01600.01050.00460.00210.00100.0005
0.0573 |
0.0334 |
0.0196 |
0.0151 |
0.0116 |
0.0070 |
0.0042 |
0.00160.00060.00020.0001 |
0.0221 |
0.0107 |
0.0053 |
0.0037 |
0.0026 |
0.0013 |
0.0007 |
0.00020.0001** |
0.0085 |
0.0035 |
0.0014 |
0.0009 |
0.0006 |
0.0003 |
0.0001 |
**** |
*The factor is zero to four decimal places.
-
Grinblatt
1725 Titman: FinancialBack Matter
Appendix A
© The McGraw
1725 HillMarkets and Corporate
Companies, 2002
Strategy, Second Edition
860 |
Appendix A |
TABLEA.3 |
Present Value of an Annuity of $1 perPeriod fortPeriods [1 1/(1 r)t ]/r |
