12.2 The Economic cycle and its variants

Contemporary social science knows more than 1380 types of cycling, but, for the most part operates only four. Kitchen cycles (cycles of reserves). In 1926, Kitchen investigated short waves (2-4 years) on the basis of a study of the accounts and sales prices moving inventory. These so-called short-term crises.

The medium-term crisis Jugular (business cycle, industrial cycle) - 7-12 years - first broke out in 1825 in England (with his Marx and began to study the theory of crises). 1836. - England, then in the United States. 1847-48gg. - The U.S., then Europe. So named for his great contribution to the study of nature Jugular industrial fluctuations in England, France, the United States based on the fundamental analysis of fluctuations in interest rates and prices. They coincided with the cycles of investment, which in turn brought about a change of GNP, investment, and employment.

Kuznets cycles (16 - 25 years). In the 1930s, the U.S. has been the study of the construction cycle. In "National income" C. Smith (1946) concluded that the indicators ND, consumer spending, gross investment in industrial turnover twenties find related fluctuations. In construction, they have the largest relative amplitude.

Kondratieff cycles (40 -60 years). He presented the results of his research on the dynamics of the index of commodity prices, interest, wages, rent, production of major products from 1770 to 1926. Start a "large" lift Kondratiev linked with the mass introduction of new technologies, involving new countries into the world economy, with the change in production of gold. The rise of the first great cycle of Kondratiev linked to the industrial revolution in England, the second - with the development of rail transport, the third - to the use of electricity, telephone, radio, and the fourth - with the motor industry, the fifth - modern economists associated with the development of electronics, genetic engineering, and microprocessors.

Crises of the late twentieth century are different from those that occurred earlier. First of all, - the phase of the crisis was accompanied by increased general level of prices. Secondly - the shorter was the depression phase, and in the post-war crisis it is difficult to detect. Third, blurs the boundaries between the phase of recovery and recovery phase. Fourth, in the postwar period has increased the duration of recovery phase and the amplitude of fluctuations in business activity - decreased.

Close attention is paid to the agrarian crisis, which caused: a combination of natural factors, the technical backwardness of the industry and the imperfect system of land lost in the organization of labor. They differ in the length and counter-cyclical.

12.3 The concept of economic growth the measurement

Economic growth - the increase of potential and real GNP growing economic strength of the country.

 It is measured in two interrelated ways: an increase in real GNP or NNP (gross and net national product) for a certain period of time or an increase in the national product per capita, an increase in living standards.

  The essence of economic growth is to allow and playing at a new level the basic contradiction of the economy: between the immensity of the needs and limited resources.

  What goals are to economic growth?

1. Raising living standards.

2. Maintenance of national security.

A growing economy is characterized by the annual growth of real product that can be used to better meet the needs of existing or to develop new programs.

  Economic growth is measured by the following indicators:

1. National income (NI) growth per capita,

2. Improving the quality and increasing diversity of manufactured goods and services,

3. Improve the distribution of NI in the population, ie growth in real income per capita,

4. Increase in free time

5. Reducing inflation,

6. Employment growth,

7. Increase in quality of life (social protection of unemployed, the disabled)

8. Increased investment in human capital.

  Economic growth is measured by annual growth rate, which is calculated as follows:

Average. year. % = GDP growth this year, GDP growth last year                                                                   GDP growth last year

where: Yt - GDP for the period t;

Yt-1 - GDP in the previous period.

The optimum ratio is 2 - 3%.