
- •Systems Thinking
- •You should remember
- •Nonprogrammed Decisions
- •You should remember
- •Tactical Decision-Making
- •Operational Decision-Making
- •The "Smoother" or Problem Avoider
- •The Problem Solver
- •The Problem Seeker
- •Conditions of Risk
- •Conditions of Uncertainty
- •Setting Performance Standards
- •Generation of Alternatives
- •Consequences Evaluation
- •Pilot-Testing and Full Implementation
- •You should remember
The Problem Seeker
The problem seeker, as the name implies, actively seeks out problems and attempts to deal with them before they emerge as major difficulties for a business. This manager is enthusiastically involved with future planning and the creation of contingencies. The problem seeker not only recognizes the need for change but also believes that the best way to deal with change is to anticipate it, not merely react to current needs. This kind of managerial decision-maker makes use of data analysis, not merely to understand the present, but also to project the future. The problem seeker is a corporate champion of research and will devote many hours of dedicated work trying to understand the implications of research data for the company's future.
Although this preoccupation with the future of the company may seem to lead to a neglect of current needs and situations, the problem seeker has a vital role in planning the future of the company. There are two major points in favor of the decision-making style of the problem seeker: (1) It is often easier and more efficient to deal with small problems before they become big ones. (2) It is not enough for a company to change; it must change in the right direction to survive in the rapidly changing contemporary environments of business. The problem seeker is a major corporate resource in planning for the future, but it is obvious that a company must be able to change both in response to current problems and in response to anticipated future problems.
One of the major distinguishing features of these three types of decision-makers is the ability to deal with conditions of risk and uncertainty. The problem avoider seeks to minimize risk and eliminate uncertainty by promoting the status quo, a totally known condition. The problem solver recognizes the need to risk change and function in an environment of uncertainty in which there are unknown conditions and the possibility of unanticipated results. The problem seeker accepts the greatest amount of risk and uncertainty in actively seeking to deal with problems before they have emerged and become known. We now turn to a general description of the different levels and types of risk and uncertainty to better understand the conditions under which managerial decisions are made.
YOU SHOULD REMEMBER
Decision-making within the contemporary business organization involves all the problem-solving styles. The problem avoider, problem solver, and problem seeker each have a role to play within the same company. Although one particular style may be more effective than the others in a specific situation, all organizations are confronted with a complex variety of challenges that will require a variety of problem-solving styles.
Decision-Making under
Different Conditions
Conditions of Certainty
Under conditions of certainty all decision variables and the results of each potential course of action or solution are known in advance. A manager can approach the decision-making secure in the knowledge that there will be no unanticipated results. In this sense, decisions made under conditions of certainty are programmed decisions. An example of these conditions is the relationship between the manufacturing of television sets and inventory levels of parts. There is no uncertainty the higher the level of manufacturing, the lower the level of inventory of parts used in the manufacturing. A decision to increase production leads directly to a reduction in inventory level. A manager making the decision to increase production knows the impact on inventory exactly. Since all results are known before making a decision, many managers prefer to make decisions under conditions of certainty. This is possible only in the most simple situations. There is rarely knowledge of all possible results, and management usually encounters a degree of risk.