Intrinsic characteristic of the basic methods of the enterprise development forecasting

The extrapolation method is one of the main techniques for forecasting complex production systems development. It is based on the assumption concerning the invariance of factors which define the development of an object of research. Its essence consists in expanding laws of the development of an object in the past for the future.

The method of functions belongs to mathematical and statistical forecasting techniques which use the so-called auto correlated (self-correlated functions (autocorrelation is the expression of the interconnection between the neighbouring members of the time series). The forecasting process with the use of such functions consists in carrying out two consecutive actions. First, the problem and criterion of its solving is formed, and then on the basis of the time series data the predictable value is defined under condition of minimisation of root-mean-square errors of the foresight.

Methods of correlation and regression models are also widely enough applied in economic forecasting. Forecasting with the use of correlation models consists in the search of statistical connection of one indicator with others (pair correlation or with group of others (multiple correlation). The value of a predicted indicator is defined by the way of the substitution in the regression equation of the value of signs (factors and the estimation of expected average value of a resulting sign. Thus, search of quantitative values of parameters of initial dependences is carried out by means of the least-squares technique.

The method of expert judgements is intuitive in its essence and is used when appropriate information is unavailable. The basis of this method consists in collecting such information mainly by questioning. Questionnaires should make possible receiving of:

- Quantitatively unequivocal answers to questions offered by the expert or to the expert;

- Formalized lists about the character of sources of the argumentation, the level of influence of each source to the answer of the expert;

- Estimation of the level of knowledge of the subject which is offered for the analysis quantitatively defined by the expert (the group of experts), and corresponding conclusions.

The "brainstorming" method is a version of the method of group expert judgements and consists in creative cooperation of a certain group of experts-specialists in solving an assigned task by means of discussion ("brainstorming"). Participants of such discussion should adhere to two obligatory rules of behaviour:

- Not to allow criticism and negative comments of opponents’ reasons;

- Not to object to a new idea, however absurd it would seem from the point of view of its possible practical realisation under specific real conditions (the state of science and technology, managing system, etc.).

The method of morphological analysis is based on using theory of combinations, i.e. on the research of all possible variants, relying on the laws of the construction (morphology) of an object of forecasting.

Forecast estimation of the enterprise development is carried out by way of combining possible variants of the development of an object.

The method of "tree of objectives" is applied in forecasting for the division of the primary tasks into subtasks (smaller tasks) and creating the system of connections checked by expert estimations. For disclosing the major factors, which considerably influence the forecasting model and the connections system construction, matrixes of reciprocal (two-way) influence and the theory of graphs are widely used.

The method of information modelling belongs to the group of specific forecasting methods. It is based on the fact that characteristic features of mass information streams make possible the process of forecasting the development of different objects on the basis of information sources which contain the necessary, logically well arranged documents in certain sequence.

The method of optimisation of separate parameters of investigated objects consists in the most thorough analysis of the greatest possible quantity of factors, which are connected with manufacture and financial and economic activity indicators and take into account the measure of their objectively existing interaction.