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Week Endnotes |
Russia |
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Equities |
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Most/Least Liked Stocks (MLLS)
We last refreshed our Most and Least liked stocks (MLLS) in Week Endnotes – Week #42; earnings season kicks off, AGRO added to ML, of 19 October.
Historical performance
Our RTS-hedged MLLS1 portfolio stepped back -0.4% over this week as the Least Liked (LL) basket (-0.2%) outperformed the USD-valued benchmark due to EVR and NLMK were holding their positions. In the meantime, the Most Liked (ML) stocks went down -1.5%. SBER and SIBN put a negative pressure on the ML portfolio performance.
Figure 1: Most Liked, Least Liked and the RTS Index
40%
30% |
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20% |
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10% |
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0% |
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-10% |
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-20% |
|
Jan'17 Apr'17 Jul'17 |
Oct'17 Jan'18 Apr'18 Jul'18 Oct'18 |
Most liked |
RTS Index Least liked |
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
Figure 2: RTS-hedged MLLS performance
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Jan'17 Apr'17 Jul'17 Oct'17 Jan'18 Apr'18 Jul'18 Oct'18
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
Figure 3: VTB Capital Most/Least Liked Stocks (Russia)
Name |
Ticker |
Rec |
12-mo TP |
Upside |
Dividend yield |
Opened |
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Performance |
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P/E, x |
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EV/EBITDA, x |
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LTM |
NTM |
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Absolute |
Rel. to RTS |
2017 |
2018 |
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2017 |
2018 |
Most liked |
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Sberbank |
SBER RX |
Buy |
RUB 330 |
63% |
6% |
9% |
3/15/2017 |
+23% |
+6% |
5.4 |
5.4 |
|
n/a |
n/a |
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Unipro |
UPRO RX |
Buy |
RUB 3.21 |
16% |
8% |
8% |
3/2/2018 |
-12% |
-5% |
10.7 |
10.7 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
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Inter RAO |
IRAO RX |
Buy |
RUB 8.50 |
113% |
3% |
4% |
3/23/2018 |
-9% |
-2% |
4.4 |
4.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
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Nornickel |
GMKN RX |
Buy |
RUB 14,200 |
21% |
12% |
13% |
6/22/2018 |
+11% |
+5% |
6.8 |
6.8 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
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PhosAgro |
PHOR LI |
Buy |
USD 17.00 |
30% |
4% |
5% |
6/22/2018 |
+3% |
-2% |
7.2 |
7.2 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
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Alrosa |
ALRS RX |
Buy |
RUB 130.00 |
26% |
11% |
14% |
8/7/2018 |
+4% |
+5% |
6.7 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
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Gazprom Neft |
SIBN RX |
Buy |
USD 7.50 |
29% |
4% |
8% |
10/12/2018 |
-3% |
-3% |
4.7 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
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Rosagro |
AGRO LI |
Buy |
USD 13.50 |
33% |
4% |
5% |
10/19/2018 |
-1% |
+1% |
8.8 |
8.8 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
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Least liked |
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Novatek |
NVTK LI |
Sell |
USD 100.00 |
-43% |
2% |
2% |
3/15/2017 |
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+45% |
+28% |
15.1 |
15.1 |
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14.8 |
14.8 |
NLMK |
NLMK LI |
Hold |
USD 23.50 |
0% |
13% |
12% |
1/12/2018 |
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-3% |
+3% |
6.0 |
6.0 |
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4.2 |
4.2 |
EVRAZ plc |
EVR LN |
Sell |
GBp 450 |
-23% |
11% |
9% |
3/30/2018 |
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+31% |
+36% |
5.6 |
5.6 |
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4.4 |
4.4 |
Source: Bloomberg, VTB Capital Research
For the dynamically updated performances of the ML and LL baskets, as well as the history of closed trades, see the MLLS section of the VTB Capital Research Portal
1 The RTS-hedged MLLS portfolio performance is the average of the performance of the basket consisting of Most and Least Liked stocks, as well as short and long RTS index positions for each ML and LL stock, respectively.
9 November 2018 |
10 |