A criminal absence of logic

By Jamie Whyte

HOW SHOULD CRIME be punished? For many crimes, my wife’s answer is torture. In her view it has all the virtues to be sought in a punishment: it would be an effective deterrent, proportionate (because similar) to the crime, and cheap. This is an unpopular view, at least in our social circles.

Punishing crime is a tricky business because all punishments are, by necessity, nasty. Torture is very nasty, of course, but imprisonment is quite nasty too. So it was not surprising to learn that Tory thinking is turning against prisons. Mary Ann Sieghart wrote on the comment pages last week that Edward Garnier, the Shadow Minister for Home Affairs, thinks imprisoning criminals ''is hugely expensive and not working''.

This anti-prison position is certainly fashionable. But is it also true? Mr Garnier claims that prisons are failing because recidivism rates are high. Seventy per cent of prisoners are convicted of another crime within two years of being released from prison.

But doesn’t the high recidivism rate show that prison is not an effective deterrent after all? It does not. Testing the deterrence value of prison by observing the portion of ex-prisoners who commit crimes is ludicrous. It is a bad case of the statistical error of ''sample bias''. Prisoners are, by hypothesis, people for whom the threat of prison is an insufficient deterrent to crime. That prison does not deter those who end up as prisoners tells us nothing about how much it deters the rest of the population, nor therefore by how much it reduces crime.

Recidivism is a red herring. Nevertheless, Mr. Garnier may be right that prison is too expensive a way of reducing crime. Alas, Mr. Garnier offers no argument beyond pointing to the cost to taxpayers: £37,000 per prisoner per year. He seems to think that upon hearing this figure we will all leap to the conclusion that prison is too expensive. But it would be a leap of faith, because you cannot tell from its price alone whether or not something is good value. Is £15,000 good value for a car? It depends, of course, on what the car is worth. The same goes for prison. If keeping someone in prison for a year is worth more than £37,000 then it is money well spent.

When imprisoning criminals is such good value, we should be doing much more of it. Especially when, contrary to popular belief, Britain has such a low rate of imprisonment. Admittedly Britain imprisons a higher percentage of its population than any other Western European country. But this is a misleading measure, since it takes no account of the portion of the population who commit crimes. Allow for the extraordinary criminality of the British, and Britain has a low imprisonment rate. Whereas Britain imprisons 12 people per 1,000 crimes, Spain imprisons 48 and Ireland 33.

Measured properly, high imprisonment rates correlate with low crime rates: Spain and Ireland, for example, have lower crime rates than Britain. And when Britain began increasing its prison population 13 years ago, the number of crimes began falling. In 1993 the prison population was 49,000 and the number of recorded offences was 19 million. By 2005 the prison population was 75,000 and the number of crimes 11 million. The same story can be told for the US, where the crime rate has fallen steadily as the prison population has climbed.

Someone who knows these facts, as Mr. Garnier must, may still favour reducing the percentage of criminals sent to prison. But it cannot really be because he thinks prison doesn’t work. It can only be because he is very, very nice.

The Times, April 13, 2006

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* red herring – отвлекающий маневр.

* deterrent – средство устрашения; сдерживающее средство.