book-instability-of-the-east-2017
.pdf– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
; |
|
|
|
– |
|
), |
|
« |
»; |
( |
- |
– |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
; |
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
; |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
9. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990–1991 |
. |
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
, |
|
( |
) |
, |
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
, |
|
. |
|
|
, |
|
, |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
. |
|
, |
|
|
, |
|
|
|
. |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
, |
, |
- |
|
|
|
. |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1967 |
1975 |
, |
, |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
, |
|
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
. |
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
189
|
|
|
|
- |
. |
|
|
|
, |
|
|
, |
|
- |
2010 |
2011 |
, |
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
10. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
130 |
. |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
( |
|
|
) |
|
, |
|
- |
. |
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
, |
, |
, |
|
, |
|
|
, |
. |
|
|
2 |
. |
|
, |
|
- |
, |
5 |
. |
|
- |
, |
, |
, |
|
- |
|
|
|
||
|
|
. |
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
, |
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
. |
|
|
190
|
, |
, |
|
- |
|
|
, |
|
. |
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
2005 |
|
11. |
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
, |
- |
|
|
|
, |
, |
. |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
- |
, |
, |
- |
|
|
. |
|
|
- |
|
, |
, |
|
- |
||
, |
. |
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
12. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
. |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
- |
||
|
|
« |
». |
||
|
, |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
||
|
- |
|
|
|
|
- |
, |
3,2 |
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
; |
- |
, |
2,7 |
, |
|
|
. |
30 |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
« |
|
|
», 27 |
. |
|
, |
|
191
|
, |
|
|
, |
, |
|
, |
|
2010 |
2013 |
- |
. |
500 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
||
, |
. |
|
|
|
- |
|
13. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
- |
, |
|
: |
|
, |
|
. |
|
, - |
|
|
|
- |
||
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
, |
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
- |
, |
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
. |
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
- |
1. |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
; |
|
|
|
|
2. |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
; |
|
|
|
|
3. |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
; |
|
|
|
|
4. |
|
|
|
|
|
/ |
- |
|
; |
|
|
5. |
. |
|
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
192
, |
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
- |
« |
— |
»14. |
|
|
|
|
|||
, |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
, |
- |
, |
, |
|
, |
- |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
- |
. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
, |
, |
- |
|
|
|
||
, |
. |
|
, — |
, |
|
|
- |
||
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
. |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
, |
, |
- |
. |
|
, |
||
|
|
|
||
|
, |
|
|
- |
, |
|
. |
|
|
|
|
- |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
193
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
, |
|
|
, |
|
, |
|
. |
- |
|
|
, |
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
15. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
, |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
- |
|
, |
|
, |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
- |
|
- |
, |
, |
, |
|
, |
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
, |
, |
, |
, |
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
- |
|
, |
, |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
, |
|
, |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
( |
), |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
194
|
, |
|
— |
- |
|
|
|
. |
|
||
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
. |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
, |
, |
- |
|
|
|
|
, |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
||
————– |
|
. |
|
||
: JШТЧЭ SЭКЭОЦОЧЭ: TСО UЧТЭОН SЭКЭОs КЧН IЧНТК: EЧНЮrТЧР GХШЛКХ |
|||||
1 |
. |
||||
|
|
|
|
Partners in the 21st Century -What to Expect from US-India Relations in 2016 // The White House Office of the Press Secretary. 07.06.2016; The Diplomat. 09.02.2016 // thediplomat.com/2016/02/what-to-expect-from-us-india-relations-in-2016.
2 Heginbotham Eric. The U.S.-China military scorecard : forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996–2017. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corp., 2015. P. 350–354.
3 David C. Gompert, Astrid Cevallos, Cristina L. Garafola. War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corp., 2016. P. 73 // www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html.
4 Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence and Partnerships // An Independent Review of U.S. Defense Strategy in the Asia-Pacific. 20.01.2016 [www.csis.org/.../asia-pacific-rebalance-2025-capabiliti].
5 Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence and Partnerships // An Independent Review of U.S. Defense Strategy in the Asia-Pacific. 20.01.2016 [www.csis.org/.../
asia-pacific-rebalance-2025-capabiliti].
6 SЭrКЭОРТМ AЧКХвsТs‖ US SОМЮrТЭв SЭrКЭОРв ШП AsТКЧ RОЛКХКЧМО: IЧНТК‘s RШХО КЧН CШn- cerns. By Annpurna Nautiyal // Editorial. January 2017. Vol. 41. Issue 1 [www.idsa.in/ strategicanalysis/41_1/us-security-strategy-of-asian-rebalance].
195
7C. Raja Mohan Choppy Waters // Unsure Navigator. 07.03.2017 [carnegieindia.org/ 2017/03/07/choppy-waters-unsure-navigator-pub-68212].
8China to Supply Pakistan With 8 New Stealth Attack Submarines by 2028 // the- diplomat.com/2016/08/china-to-supply-pakistan-with-8-new-stealth-attack-submarines-
by-2028.
9AЮsЭrКХТК ТЧ ЭСО ‗IЧНШ-PКМТПТМ‘ МОЧЭЮrв: rОаКrНs, rТsФs, rОХКЭТШЧsСТЩs // ааа.КЩС.РШЯ.КЮ/
About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook44p /IndoPacific.
10The Pirates of Somalia:Ending the Threat, Rebuilding a Nation // sitere- sources.worldbank.org/INTAFRICA/Resources/pirates-of-somalia-executive-fact- sheet.pdf.
11www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11345278/Mapped-Piracy-on- the-rise-as-ship-hijackings-near-double.html.
12National strategy for the security of maritime areas 2016 (France). P. 20; 26–28 // www.gouvernement.fr/sites/default/files/contenu/piece-jointe/2016/01/strategie_nationale_ de_surete_des_espaces_maritimes_en_national_strategy_for_the_security_of_maritime_areas.
13mfame.guru/malacca-spore-straits-traffic-hits-new-high-2016.
14Len C. China's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative, Energy Security and
SLOC Access // Maritime Affairs: Journal Of The National Maritime Foundation Of India. 2015. Vol. 11. Iss. 1. P. 17–18; Roell P. CСТЧК‘s MКrТЭТЦО SТХФ RШКН - An Ambi-
tious Undertaking // ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security. 2016. May. Issue 423. P. 5.
15 Robinson T.C. What Do We Mean by Nuclear Proliferation? // The Nonproliferation Review. 2015. Vol. 22. Iss. 1. P. 70.
196
Ш |
г г |
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
( |
). |
|
|
|
|
|
— |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
|
- |
|
|
. |
, |
, |
- |
|
|
|
|||
|
— |
, |
|
. |
, |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
XXI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
: |
|
, |
- |
|
|
, |
, |
|
- |
|
|
, |
|
- |
|
|
, |
|
. |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016 |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
1,76 |
|
.: 85% — |
, 15% — |
. |
— |
- |
|
500,0 |
, |
|
400 |
(75%) 100 |
|
— 100 |
( |
. 25%)1. |
, |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
— |
- |
, |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
197
|
— |
, |
( |
|
- |
, |
|
). |
, |
, |
, - |
|
, |
10 |
40% |
|
|
. |
, |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
||
, |
|
. |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
. |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
- |
. |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
, |
XX |
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
, |
|
. |
|
- |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
, |
|
|
— |
|
|
. |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
||
. |
|
|
|
|
- |
|
, |
- |
|
- |
|
|
, |
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
. |
|
, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-,
|
, |
|
|
, |
- |
|
, |
- |
, |
. |
|
|
. |
- |
|
|
- |
|
|
- |
198