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Приложение 15
Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X
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Dependent variable: W2
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 6,26421 0,213283 29,3704 0,0000
Slope 0,170075 0,0178045 9,55237 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 19,2355 1 19,2355 91,25 0,0000
Residual 3,7945 18 0,210805
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Total (Corr.) 23,03 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,913913
R-squared = 83,5237 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,459135
Polynomial Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: W2
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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CONSTANT 7,5098 0,401928 18,6845 0,0000
time -0,340691 0,161721 -2,10666 0,0513
time^2 0,0495208 0,0176676 2,80291 0,0128
time^3 -0,00135546 0,000553905 -2,4471 0,0263
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 20,8638 3 6,95459 51,37 0,0000
Residual 2,16624 16 0,13539
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Total (Corr.) 23,03 19
R-squared = 90,5938 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 88,8302 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,367954
Mean absolute error = 0,249388
Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: W2
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 1,85789 0,0257268 72,2161 0,0000
Slope 0,0208641 0,00214763 9,71492 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,289481 1 0,289481 94,38 0,0000
Residual 0,0552095 18 0,0030672
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Total (Corr.) 0,344691 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,916422
R-squared = 83,9829 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0553823
Приложение 16
Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X
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Dependent variable: G
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 10,7925 0,35206 30,6552 0,0000
Slope 0,297812 0,0293894 10,1333 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 58,9802 1 58,9802 102,68 0,0000
Residual 10,3389 18 0,574384
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Total (Corr.) 69,3191 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,922416
R-squared = 85,085 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,757881
Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: G
Independent variable: time
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 2,40303 0,0221894 108,296 0,0000
Slope 0,0211122 0,00185234 11,3976 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,296406 1 0,296406 129,90 0,0000
Residual 0,0410709 18 0,00228172
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Total (Corr.) 0,337477 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,937177
R-squared = 87,83 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0477673
Regression Analysis - Reciprocal-Y model: Y = 1/(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: G
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 0,08897 0,00147935 60,1413 0,0000
Slope -0,00151491 0,000123494 -12,2671 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,00152613 1 0,00152613 150,48 0,0000
Residual 0,000182551 18 0,0000101417
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Total (Corr.) 0,00170868 19
Correlation Coefficient = -0,945073
R-squared = 89,3163 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0031846
Приложение 17
Regression Analysis - Linear model: Y = a + b*X
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Dependent variable: T
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 15,6195 0,590697 26,4424 0,0000
Slope 0,620526 0,0493105 12,5841 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 256,06 1 256,06 158,36 0,0000
Residual 29,1053 18 1,61696
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Total (Corr.) 285,165 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,947595
R-squared = 89,7935 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 1,2716
Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: T
Independent variable: time
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 2,79698 0,0223037 125,404 0,0000
Slope 0,0272774 0,00186188 14,6505 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,494796 1 0,494796 214,64 0,0000
Residual 0,0414949 18 0,00230527
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Total (Corr.) 0,536291 19
Correlation Coefficient = 0,960534
R-squared = 92,2626 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0480133
Dependent variable: T
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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CONSTANT 18,4892 0,392021 47,1639 0,0000
time -0,162129 0,0859762 -1,88574 0,0765
time^2 0,0372693 0,0039768 9,37168 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 280,445 2 140,223 505,04 0,0000
Residual 4,72001 17 0,277647
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (Corr.) 285,166 19
R-squared = 98,3448 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 98,1501 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,526923
Mean absolute error = 0,398498
Приложение 18
Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: W2
Independent variable: time
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 1,86236 0,0203969 91,306 0,0000
Slope 0,0203083 0,00137204 14,8016 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,536157 1 0,536157 219,09 0,0000
Residual 0,0562867 23 0,00244725
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (Corr.) 0,592444 24
Correlation Coefficient = 0,951311
R-squared = 90,4992 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0494696
Regression Analysis - Exponential model: Y = exp(a + b*X)
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Dependent variable: G
Independent variable: time
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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Intercept 2,40586 0,0198788 121,026 0,0000
Slope 0,0208069 0,00133719 15,5602 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 0,562806 1 0,562806 242,12 0,0000
Residual 0,0534636 23 0,0023245
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (Corr.) 0,61627 24
Correlation Coefficient = 0,955639
R-squared = 91,3246 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,0482131
Polynomial Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: T
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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CONSTANT 17,9466 0,403878 44,4358 0,0000
time 0,00653995 0,071581 0,0913643 0,0280
time^2 0,0285266 0,0026725 10,6741 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 771,601 2 385,8 1003,66 0,0000
Residual 8,45669 22 0,384395
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Total (Corr.) 780,058 24
R-squared = 98,9159 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 98,8173 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,619996
Mean absolute error = 0,490532
Приложение 19
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: C*
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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time -0,266875 0,0539341 -4,94817 0,0001
G 0,587956 0,193952 3,03145 0,0066
T 0,840162 0,113112 7,42772 0,0000
LAG(P;1) 1,13739 0,122111 9,3144 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 59295,7 4 14823,9 23864,08 0,0000
Residual 12,4236 20 0,621181
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Total 59308,1 24
R-squared = 99,9791 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 99,9759 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,788151
Mean absolute error = 0,623135
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2,12398
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: I*
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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G -0,833901 0,0579763 -14,3835 0,0000
LAG(X;1) 0,216146 0,0134236 16,1019 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 65,0724 2 32,5362 670,48 0,0000
Residual 1,06759 22 0,048527
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Total 66,14 24
R-squared = 98,3859 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 98,3125 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,220288
Mean absolute error = 0,174333
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2,32851
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: W1*
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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T -0,803686 0,0574503 -13,9892 0,0000
LAG(P;1) -0,470517 0,129884 -3,62259 0,0016
LAG(X;1) 0,769246 0,0533909 14,4078 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 9630,8 3 3210,27 12208,99 0,0000
Residual 5,5218 21 0,262943
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Total 9636,32 24
R-squared = 99,9427 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 99,9372 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,512779
Mean absolute error = 0,432184
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2,03317
Приложение 20
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: C^
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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W1@+W2 0,542714 0,190834 2,8439 0,0094
LAG(P;1) 1,64539 0,263503 6,24431 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 59238,5 2 29619,2 9352,74 0,0000
Residual 69,6719 22 3,1669
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Total 59308,1 24
R-squared = 99,8825 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 99,8772 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 1,77958
Mean absolute error = 1,37793
Durbin-Watson statistic = 0,582978
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: I^
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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LAG(P;1) 0,15184 0,103879 1,4617 0,1580
LAG(K;1) -0,0149652 0,0196616 -0,761136 0,4547
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 55,305 2 27,6525 56,15 0,0000
Residual 10,835 22 0,4925
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Total 66,14 24
R-squared = 83,6181 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 82,8735 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,701783
Mean absolute error = 0,489203
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2,04208
Multiple Regression Analysis
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Dependent variable: W1^
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Standard T
Parameter Estimate Error Statistic P-Value
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LAG(X;1) 0,375618 0,00413964 90,7371 0,0000
time -0,306718 0,0177144 -17,3146 0,0000
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Analysis of Variance
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Source Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F-Ratio P-Value
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Model 9632,4 2 4816,2 27008,62 0,0000
Residual 3,92306 22 0,178321
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Total 9636,32 24
R-squared = 99,9593 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 99,9574 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0,42228
Mean absolute error = 0,339677
Durbin-Watson statistic = 0,938878
Приложение 21
-
Точечный прогноз
W226
10,9
W227
11,1
W228
11,4
W229
11,6
W230
11,8
G26
19,14
G27
19,55
G28
19,97
G29
20,39
G30
20,82
T26
37,7
T27
39,3
T28
40,9
T29
42,5
T30
44,3
C26
59,84
C27
61,61
C28
50,11
C29
47,51
C30
29,73
I26
2,0
I27
2,1
I28
1,0
I29
0,9
I30
0,6
W126
23,7
W127
24,2
W128
21,9
W129
22,4
W130
16,7
X26
80,9
X27
83,2
X28
71,0
X29
68,8
X30
49,9
K26
132,4
K27
134,2
K28
134,6
K29
136,5
K30
132,3
P26
19,5
P27
19,7
P28
8,3
P29
4,0
P30
1,0