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11 Ultra-Large-Scale Virtual Screening 325
Finally, some recent work revived more classical models: For instance, the Lean docking protocol by Berenger et al. [84] lowers the required docking by about 75% with the help of a linear support vector regressor. Training takes only about 80 s on a single core, and the trained model achieves a throughput of around 5800 compounds per second per computing core. However, Lean docking has so far not been applied to an ultra-large docking scenario. The recent work of Marin et al. [85] relies on ensembles of ngerprint-based linear regression models to accelerate docking-based VS in one-shot and active learning scenarios. Their study utilized the previously published 99 million AmpC dataset [17]. While recent MPNN-based methods achieved higher recalls, their linear regressor ensemble surpassed the performance of more shallow approaches like RF models. Additionally, those simple models are often several times faster in training and prediction cycles than more advanced ML and DL approaches, although their memory footprint remains a potential bottleneck [85]. Importantly, these examples highlight that, while not necessarily with optimal results, ultra-large VS efforts can be feasible in settings with limited access to computational resources and, in particular, GPUs, when relying upon more simple models.
Table 11.5 summarizes implementation and training strategies of the discussed ultralarge ML- and DL-boosted screening approaches. Table 11.6 additionally summarizes application examples on the ultra-large scale. Repositories of open­source tools are summarized in Table 11.10 in the Appendix.
It is important to note that all tools aim to partially replace brute-force docking with a faster stand-in. At the same time, the approaches do not modify the docking and scoring procedure itself. Generally, these strategies rely on the ability of the chosen docking approach to achieve a meaningful enrichment in true actives among the top-scoring compounds. Therefore, the same validation measures that apply for default brute-force docking should be taken into account when utilizing ML-accelerated docking whenever possible (see, e.g., Chap. 7 for detailed validation procedures).
Most approaches discussed herein abstain from exhaustive (hyper)parameter optimization. While one can argue that optimization should always be done when utilizing ML or DL models, most tools demonstrated good performance with default parameters across diverse targets. Optimizing the often thousands or even millions of hyperparameter combinations can be unfeasible or, at best, represents a major additional time investment when speed-up is the primary objective. Further, any optimization needs to reect the scale of the intended production VS. Even though more optimal parameters for specic systems may exist, relying on the same defaults as method authors or published examples is often the preferable choice. How­ever, users should, at the very least , infor m every available parameter choice in the selected tool by small-scale pre-studies or a retrospective analysis of recalls.
326 I. Pöhner et al.
Fig. 11.5 Schematic illustration of a fragment-/reagent-based approach to ultra-large-scale screen­ing. Instead of fully elaborated compounds, the docking inputs are fragments, fragment-sized reagents, or minimal representative scaffolds, sometimes with designated R-groups for enumeration (indicated by the yellow sphere). Following conventional docking, only the most promising starting scaffolds are selected and elaborated into fully qualied small molecules, which are docked into the target receptor in a nal evaluation step
6.2 Reagent- or Fragment-Based Approaches to Screen
Combinatorial Libraries
Ultra-large make-on-demand chemical libraries are often combinatorial libraries created from reagents and predened synthesis protocols to interconnect the building blocks. Several methods seek to reduce the computational cost of screening an ultralarge library by relying on the evaluation of fragment-like reagents or building block composites, as schematically illustrated in Fig. 11.5. In such approaches, only the most promising scaffolds get enumerated, thus substantially reducing the number of compounds to consider. Similar to ML-driven QSAR solutions, the concept of elaborating compounds from virtual fragments is equally not a new development [86, 87] but has recently seen a surge linked to the emerging ultra-large combina­torial libraries and spaces.
With Thompson sampling (TS), Klarich et al. [35] propose a probabilistic search method operating in the reagent space. TS is applicable to various ligand- and receptor-based VS approaches, where the respective methods scoring function informs the belief distribution underlying TS. For each available reaction, reagents are randomly selected, and fully elaborated molecules are generated in silico. Iteratively, the molecules are scored, and the belief distribution is updated. The authors applied TS to a Tanimoto-2D similarity search, a 3D similarity search, and a docking study. They also compared TS with an active learning RF approach. Recalls between 57% and 90% were achieved for different tasks when evaluating no more than 1% of an ultra-large combinatorial library. The application of TS to VS represents a novel approach, and the performance in nding top-scoring hits may require further optimization. Nonetheless, TS achieved 100 to 48,000 times speed­up, and can signicantly reduce computing expenses for screening ultra-large combinatorial libraries.
11 Ultra-Large-Scale Virtual Screening 327
Another approach relies on the combinatorial nature of the Enamine REAL Space with more than 11 billion compounds. In V-SYNTHES (Virtual Synthon Hierarchi­cal Enumeration Screening), the library is rst decomposed into all possible combi­nations of scaffolds and synthons for all reactions [22]. A synthon can be pictured as a minimal capping R-group or common substructure, from which a fully elaborated molecule can be grown. In the V-SYNTHES approach, all scaffold–synthon com­binations are docked, and only the most promising fragments will have their R-groups enumerated until the molecules are fully elaborated. Docking reduction to only 1.5 million compounds of the 11-billion compound library corresponds to a 5000-fold speed-up of the screen. With a hit rate of 33% (compared to 15% for a smaller-scale classical VS approach), V-SYNTHES helped to identify 14 submicromolar ligands of a cannabinoid receptor [22]. Its application to the ROCK1 kinase achieved a 28.5% hit rate and resulted in several nanomolar ligands [22].
ROCK1 was also the target of Beroza et al. [88] and their largely manual workow termed Chemical Space Docking, which combines several modeling, docking, and chemoinformatics tools. The workow uses the building blocks and synthesis protocols underlying combinatorial make-on-demand chemical libraries like the Enamine REAL Space to dene the searchable chemical space. In a greedy optimization strategy, 500 unique, promising starting fragments were selected from the top-scoring FLExX docking results by properties including their interaction pattern, internal strain, logP, and chemical diversity. For ROCK1, the full enumer­ation of these starting fragments yielded around 5.2 million compounds, which represented a signicant reduction compared to the around 858 million possible virtual product molecules in the considered Enamine REAL subspace. The approach altogether identied 27 actives with K
values below 10 μM, including three
i
compounds with a novel hinge-binding motif not previously observed in ROCK1 [88]. While the authors acknowledge that a more exhaustive sampling of the chemical space may be preferable, their approach showcases how ultra-large chem­ical spaces can be utilized in VS even with very limited computational resources.
In their crystal structure rstapproach, Müller et al. [89] combine Chemical Space Docking with X-ray crystallography-based fragment screening. Instead of docking building block fragments , this approach starts from existing crystallo­graphic evidence: Four fragment co-crystal structures of protein kinase A were selected, and fragments from the Enamine REAL Space with 2.6 billion virtual products were matched onto their position with FlexX docking. Not only does the approach rely on experimentally conrmed interaction patterns, but such template­based docking approaches with partially predened atom positions are also signif­icantly faster than regular approaches that require a more exhaustive sampling during pose generation. After that, the approach resembles Chemical Space Docking, where the most promising matches are enumerated and docked again. Within only 9 weeks, this crystal-based approach achieved a hit rate of around 40% and concluded with a set of additional crystal structures of the novel compounds to conrm the predicted binding modes. The approach identied several low micro­molar to submicromolar inhibitors with novel scaffolds, the most potent of which showed a K
of 744 nM.
i
328 I. Pöhner et al.
Gahbauer et al. [54] likewise complemented ultra-large VS efforts with X-ray crystallographic evidence: To nd inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 nonstructural protein 3 (NSP3), they rst utilized existing crystal structures with bound fragments of up to 180 μMaffi nities. The crystallographic fragments were linked, and the resulting drug-like molecules served as search templates for a 2D similarity search with the SmallWorld server. After screening 22 billion synthesizable molecules in the Enamine REAL database, eight of the 13 prioritized compounds were conrmed as NSP3 binders by crystallographic soaking experiments [54]. In addition to these initial mic romolar hits, the authors aimed to expand the hit diversity in an unbiased fashion: They additionally carried out a conventional docking-based screen of around 400 unique molecules with DOCK3.7. In addition to the default scoring parameters, they also ran a calculation with optimized scoring parameters to better reect the crystallographic evidence for NSP3. This effort added ve additional classes of previously unknown low micromolar inhibitory scaffolds to the hit pool. Most virtual hits had an anionic nature, but the authors nalized their study with a structure-based optimization that successfully replaced anionic groups with neutral groups, opening up a route toward better membrane permeability for the novel NSP3 inhibitor classes [54].
Finally, another strategy for chemical space docking, termed SpaceDock, was recently published by Sindt et al. [90]. Their approach uses a 5.5 billion-compound subset of the Enamine REAL Space with no more than two synthetic steps selected from a small set of robust chemical reactions. SpaceDock relies on docking the unmodied fragment-sized reagents before linking them into fully enumerated compounds. The authors rst used GOLD to dock a combinatorial space of around 98 million compounds to estrogen receptor beta in a retrospective analysis. Only about 0.6% of their screening space constituted true agonist scaffolds, while the remainder were decoys. Encouragingly, true binders were signicantly enriched by SpaceDock, making up 84% of the resulting virtual hits [90]. After establishing the ability of the method to generate known ligands or their close analogs, SpaceDock was applied to the docking of 670 million compounds against the dopamine D receptor. A known ligand and several compounds that could be the results of scaffold hopping from known ligands were again among the virtual hits. The nal hits included binders with submicromolar to low micromolar K a novel scaffold that had not previously been observed in D
, four of which contained
i
receptor antagonists.
3
Table 11.7 summarizes the featured examples that exploit the combinatorial nature of many state-of-the-art ultra-large screening libraries to speed up VS and reduce the associated computational burden.
3

7 Challenges and Future Perspectives

We have, in previous sections, hinted at some practical challenges for ultra-large VS. In this nal part of the chapter, we will address a nal key issue for ultra-large­scale screening: The process of selecting hit compounds for further work-up, or hit
11 Ultra-Large-Scale Virtual Screening 329
Table 11.7 Summary of ultra-large reagent-/fragment-based screening campaigns
Compounds screened Target(s) Tool Mock throughput
22 billion NSP3 Fragment linking + 2D sim-
11 billion Cannabinoid
5.5 billion Not specied SpaceDock 1360 cpds/min Sindt et al.
2.6 billion PKA Chemical Space Docking
858 million ROCK1 Chemical space docking
335 million JNK3 TS (OEDocking) 350 cpds/min Klarich
234 million Random query
Approx. 100 million
94 million Random query
The reported mockthroughput takes the total number of input compounds divided by the total computing time for a single computing unit. Note that most methods utilize conventional brute­force docking with the corresponding low throughput, but accelerate the approach by the signicant reduction of required brute-force docking NSP3 SARS-CoV-2 nonstructural protein 3, PKA protein kinase A, NA not available (authors did not provide total run-time or speed information)
receptor, ROCK1
molecule Not specied SpaceDock (GOLD) 2170 cpds/min Sindt et al.
molecule
ilarity search V-SYNTHES (ICM-Pro) NA Sadybekov
crystal structure rst (FlexX)
(FlexX)
TS (OEShape ROCS) >120,000 cpds/
Tanimoto 2D Similarity search
NA Gahbauer
7200 cpds/min Müller
NA Beroza
min
522 million cpds/ min
Reference (s)
et al. [54]
et al. [22]
[90]
et al. [89]
et al. [88]
et al. [35] Klarich
et al. [35]
[90] Klarich
et al. [35]
triage. Hit triage suffers from unreliable rank-scorin g, which escalates on this new dimension. We aim to highlight the issue and possible solutions to this prime counter-argument against ultra-large VS. Additionally, we address future direc tions and our hopes for the adoption and extension of large-scale benchmarking data. Finally, we discuss some recent developments, which may shape the future direc­tions of ultra-large VS.
7.1 Hit Triage: An Old Problem on a New Dimension
The key objective of VS is to narrow down a large pool of compounds and retain a few promising top-ranked virtual hits for further post-processing and validation, for example, by more extensive computational studies or experimental assays. Ultra­large screening faces two main challenges, which also give rise to most counter­arguments against ultra-large VS: First, we can reasonably dene screening success as the successful enrichment of (to-be-conrmed) true hits among the top-r anked candidates.
330 I. Pöhner et al.
Table 11.8 Summary of purchased compounds and hit rates in recent ultra-large VS campaigns
Screening input Target(s) Ordered Obtained
Actives (Hit rate) Reference(s)
22 billion NSP3 16 13 8 (62%) Gahbauer et al.
[54]
>12.3 billion
11 billion Cannabinoid
Mpro 1700 1283 117 (9%) Gentile et al.
[34]
80 60 21 (35%) Sadybekov
receptor
et al. [22]
11 billion ROCK1 24 21 6 (29%) Sadybekov
et al. [22]
2.6 billion Protein kinase A 106 93 (75 soluble) 30 (40%) Müller et al. [89]
1.40 billion PLpro 260 178 17 (10%) Garland et al. [73]
1.40 billion A
adenosine
2A
39 39 2 (5%) Tang et al. [74]
receptor
1.30 billion KEAP1 590 590 69/23/12
(2–12%)
a
Gorgulla et al. [7]
1.12 billion Lpd 103 88 6 (7%) Michino et al. [21]
1.00 billion Lin28 163 163 15 (9%) Radaeva et al. [75]
858 million ROCK1 77 69 27 (39%) Beroza et al.
[88]
670 million Dopamine D
3
16 15 10 (67%) Sindt et al. [90]
receptor σ2 receptor 577 484 127 (26%) Alon et al. [19]
490 million 330 million NSP3 90 78 22/11/30
(14–38%)
246 million NSP3 54 46 25/5/8
(11-54%)
a
Gahbauer et al. [54]
a
Gahbauer et al. [54]
235 million Mpro 100 100 19 (19%) Luttens et al.
[57]
150 million MT
melatonin
1
40 38 15 (39%) Stein et al. [18]
receptor
138 million Dopamine D
4
589 549 122 (22%) Lyu et al. [17]
receptor
115 million CysLT1R,
CysLT2R
155 139 10/17
b
(7/12%)
Sadybekov et al. [63]
99 million AmpC β-lactamase 51 44 5 (11%) Lyu et al. [17] 75 million Serotonin 5-HT
receptor
17 4 (24%) Kaplan et al.
2A
[64]
NSP3 SARS-CoV-2 nonstructural protein 3, Mpro SARS-CoV-2 main protease, PLpro SARS­CoV-2 papain-like protease, KEAP1 Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1, Lpd mycobacterial lipoamide dehydrogenase, CysLT1R, CysLT2R cysteinyl leukotriene G protein-coupled receptors
a
Activities in different assays
b
Active on/binding to one or more of the targets.
11 Ultra-Large-Scale Virtual Screening 331
With often only very few of these candidates entering experimental validation (see Table 11.8 for a summary of the discussed campaigns), a rst caveat of ultra­large screening is that your initial set of virtual hits may still be rather largefor instance, even if you consider only the top 0.1% of a billion-scale screen, this would still leave one million potentially promising compounds for consideration in all follow-up procedures [24]. This high numbe r, in connection with a well-known shortcoming of ranking accuracy in VS, can turn hit selection into a dangerous gamble. The scoring functions used in VS often predict a desirable activity prole for compounds that represent inactives [1, 3]. Combining those two aspects, your screen may leave you with a large number of virtual hit candidates, many of which may well be false positives [1, 24].
With the inaccuracies of scoring approaches in mind, should you truly rely on greedy selection and post-process only the very top of the list? One of the rst ultra­large docking-based VS campaigns provided an argument in favor of this concept: As part of their study of the dopamine D
receptor, Lyu et al. [17] investigated the
4
connection between docking rank and hit rate. They sought experimental conrma­tion not only for selected top-ranked virtual hits but also for several compounds with less favorable docking scores. Strikingly, for their target, the authors found a clear drop in the hit rate when moving to less favorable scoring ranges. The authors also compared an automated, purely data-driven, selection of top-scoring compounds with the selection by expert opinion. While expert-driven selection yielded higher­afnity compounds, the hit rate of both approaches remained the same. Thus, despite false positives, drawing the nal hit selection from the top-ranked compounds appears to be a viable strategy at least for some targets. Consistently, evidence suggests that both classical and recent ML-based scoring functions are capable of identifying better hits from larger chemical spaces [6]. However, since scoring is highly target- (or system-) dependent, these ndings do not necessarily generalize. For instance, Alon et al. [19] likewise selected their initial hits from different scoring bins and observed a hit rate of 27% in the highest scoring bin. The second-highest scoring bin, on the other hand, gave a 61% hit rate. However, the authors observed the same general trend of dropping hit rates as a function of less favorable docking scores.
In a follow-up effort, Lyu et al. [91] focuse d more on the general implications of massively growing chemical libraries for VS. They extrapolated that with growing libraries, not only can one expect better scores, but there is also a striking increase in artifacts. Articially high-ranked false positives are thus more likely to drown out true positives in the top-ranking bin(s). Thus, when working with ultra-large chem­ical libraries, caution is advised when relying on a greedy top-ranking-only selection logic. Instead, more lenient selection concepts which draw their hits also from lower­scoring bins, or rescoring strategies with alternative approaches should be consid­ered [24, 91]. Bender et al. [24] provide a comprehensive overview of selection criteria and further recommendations for the experimental validation and next steps.
Despite all their problems, state-of-the-art scoring functions, paired with the appropriate caution, clearly can enable successful drug discovery campaigns, as emphasized by many of the ultra-large screens discussed herein, albei t hit rates
332 I. Pöhner et al.
greatly varied between different campaigns (see Table 11.8). Various studies iden­tied novel binders with previously unknown scaffolds. The odds of nding novelty should improve for ultra-large screening approaches, which can, for example, benet a researchers ability to patent the discovered hits and any derived compounds [8]. However, Grebner et al. [4] showed for their 3D shape screening approach that the diversity of obtained hits no longer increased when exceeding library sizes of 10 billion. This is, in all likelihood, extremely target-, approach-, and screening library-dependent, but should serve as a reminder that in ultra-large VS, we should carefully weigh the cost–benet, and not blindly consider biggernecessarily always better.
7.2 Future-Proong VS Approaches
While we cannot be certain how the future of VS will develop in the long run, it is reasonable to assume that VS on the ultra-large scale will become more common. Given the massive resource requirements of standard brute-force approaches, it is also likely that accelerated approaches, and those leveraging the combinatorial nature of chemical libraries, will be more heavily relied upon. The examples discussed in this chapter underline that many approaches are, indeed, already able to proces s ultra-large libraries. However, currently, almost all screens rely on HPC or cloud computing resources to do so. Only a few tools have been specically designed with a focus on state-of-the-art ultra-large libraries or benchmarked on this scale.
We can anticipate developments in dedicated screening software for both HPC and cloud computing, but also more limited computational resource settings. This notion also underlines why we believe that ultra-large-scale benchmarking data is crucial to the development of the eld. As discussed, for example, in the work on Thompson sampling for VS acceleration presented by Klarich et al. [35], completely novel approaches or application domains require careful optimization to maximize performance and recall. Such optimization should take the intended use-scale into account, which requires datasets of suitable size. While many of the brute-force efforts performed so far only released selected top-scoring compounds, if any data at all, one of the rst brute-force docking studies released their full 99 million AmpC and 138 million D gold standard for benchmarking in the eld. With the Glide docking results released by Yang et al. [81], two different ultra-large docking datasets for the same targets are now available (see also Table 11.11 in the Appendix). More recently, two billion­scale docking datasets were released into the public domain: The rst covers docking and rescoring results of 1.4 billion compounds against ve SARS-CoV-2 target proteins [56, 66], the second 1.56 billion Glide-HTVS results obtained with lead-like compounds against two different targets [23, 65] (Table 11.11). These datasets
DOCK docking results [17]. This dataset has since become a
4
11 Ultra-Large-Scale Virtual Screening 333
should provide suitable ultra-large and billion-scale benchmarking data for future approaches. If other ultra-large-scale brute-force approaches are undertaken in the future, it would be desirable if authors released their results to broaden and diversify benchmarking data for ultra-large VS.
In addition to newly emerging approaches and more rigorous benchmarking, the libraries themselves will likely continue to grow. If one considers estimates of the total number of hypothetically possible drug-like molecules in chemical space, which range from around 10
20
to over 1030, even the largest modern screening libraries discussed herein remain tiny in perspective [3]. The emergence of even larger enumerated libraries may be questionable, as their data sizes have already become impractical. Instead, one can anticipate a further surge of nonenumerated combinatorial spaces that store building blocks and synthesis rules rather than the elaborated compounds [15]. This chapter already discussed several approaches that rely on such combinatorial libraries to speed up conventional screening. In ligh t of the likely trends for virtual chemical libraries, we can assume a stronger presence of reagent-based approaches in future VS. If libraries indeed keep growing, combina­torial searches and 2D approaches will become critical components of VS when aiming for the largest spaces, as classical approaches appear to fall short of achieving sufcient throughput to scale beyond current state-of-the-art library sizes [9].
7.3 Other Trends That Might Impact the Future
of Ultra-Large VS
An alternative way to nd entirely novel scaffolds without relying on existing libraries utilizes generative AI [92]. First examples of combining docking with generative AI models have already begun to appear a few years back, for instance, MORLD (Molecule Optimization by Reinforcement Learning and Docking) [93]. The tool was showcased on discoidin domain receptor 1 kinase and the dopamine D
receptor as employed in the ultra-large screening campaign by Lyu
4
et al. [17] discussed herein.
One drawback of generative models, potentially limiting their adoption in VS, has been that the molecules produced in silico may not be synthesizable or even always feasible. This issue was partly addressed by training networks specically on synthetically accessible compounds [94]. However, in an age of searchable ultra­large make-on-demand spaces, generative models may gain more ground in future VS. Rather than seeding docking approaches directly from ultra-large librarie s, generative models could create virtual hits de novo, which can then serve as templates for ultra-large library searches. Indeed, a very recent publication by Popov et al. [95] showcases the combination of generative AI, docking, and ultra­large library searches with their tool HIDDEN GEM (HIt Discovery using docking ENriched by GEnerative Modeling). With the present and future advances in ultra­fast searches of nonenumerated spaces in mind, this may represent a rst blueprint of a future VS strategy, which would partially disentangle docking and ultra-large library searches.
334 I. Pöhner et al.
DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) represent a new trend in experimental screening that may shake up the role of VS in hit identication. DELs allow for largely unbiased, unprecedented throughput in wet lab settings, venturing into the billion­scale and beyond [9, 96, 97]. Those libraries rely on combinatorial chemistry to generate small molecules with a DNA barcode.A protein target can be exposed to the full library in solution, and any nonbinders get washed off. Finally, collecting the bound compounds and amplifying their DNA labels by PCR enables their identi­cation [8]. The ability to test an entire library in a single tube signicantly reduces the amount of required protein. Thus, e.g., mammalian expression vectors or the isola­tion and purication of a specic protein target from a patients organ might become feasible [96]. DELs could further enable the prospective elucidation of SAR proles and hit identication for particularly challenging, even undruggabletargets [96, 97].
Collie et al. [97] discuss novel binding sites and previously unobserved enzyme conformations, which were indirectly discovered by DELs. However, despite their great potential, larger libraries suffer from higher false negative rates and increasing noise [96]. Furthermore, constructing DELs and analyzing the results of DEL assays is not without challenges, and to date, those libraries tend to cover different and rather narrow chemical spaces compared to most small-molecule libraries discussed herein: They are often rich in large, exible, peptide-like compoundsthus not being the rst choices for medicinal chemistry and hit-to-lead optimization [9]. Taken together, DELs can uncover interesting novel information and provide starting points for drug discovery campaigns. As experience with DELs grows and protocols to overcome their probl ems are established, their application, alone and likely also in combination with VS approaches, will likely impact the future of drug discovery.

8 Conclusions

Over the past 5 years, as demonstrated by the various examples in this chapter, the growth of chemical libraries into the ultra-large domain has inspired several ultra­large VS campaigns. An overview of all covered studies in the context of chemical library sizes is shown in Fig. 11.6. As can be seen, in principle, most VS approaches can be applied to state-of-the-art ultra-large libraries, although often with consider­able investment of computing power. Reagent-/fragment-based approaches repre­sent novel and very recent developments in response to combinatorial libraries and spaces that appear on the rise. One can further appreciate that approaches so far did rarely exceed 10 billion input compounds. Ligand-based and accelerated approaches have been applied on that scale, hinting at the VS concepts with the highest potential of adaptation to even larger library sizes.
Many highly potent compounds, often with novel scaffolds, were discovered with the help of those screens for a variety of targets. Typically, the nal hit selections were not data-driven but relied on expert opinion. As such, the in part astounding