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• Do researchers have the ability to be biased either consciously by understanding
https://t.me/med1917
that they are biased or subconsciously by removing controls to eliminate their
personal biases? Absolutely
• Although a detailed description of statistical methods is beyond the scope of this
monograph, it is important to have a basic understanding of the application of
statistical tools
• Without this ability, we cannot detect errors in the application and interpretation
of statistics
• Clinicians must understand that the application of statistical methods is a process
• e process starts with a question, evolves into a hypothesis, and establishes the
rules to the game and statistical analyses that will be used to answer each hypothesis before playing the game
• e game is then played, and the data are analyzed based on the established rules
of the game
• Statistics are, therefore, an essential and powerful tool that uses math to mini-
mize the biases that come from our senses through direct observation
• Take home message. It is all about process and starting with a question. If we
start with the answer and seek evidence to support that answer, we have already
lost the game”
2.4 Frequentist Statistical Methodology
• It is the traditional statistical methodology that the practicing Physical erapist
is most likely going to encounter
• is form of statistical methodology makes several assumptions
• It is, therefore, essential to understand these assumptions so that you can recog-
nize when a researcher is taking liberties with the application of this statistical
methodology
—NOTES—
2.5 Frequentist Assumptions
• Assumption 1- e sample is a smaller representation of the population. Sam-
pling bias may occur if a researcher only includes patients that they feel will
meet the inclusion and exclusion criteria for a study instead of screening the
population of interest to see if the patient meets the study’s inclusion and ex-
9
clusion criteria.
a non-random relationship with what is being studied.
If this occurs, the researcher may be creating a sample that has
9
is is a threat to the
internal validity of the study and external validity of the study. is also hinders
the repeatability of the research in future trials
9
• Assumption 2- e choices for the statistical tools that were used to answer each
research question were made before the data were collected. Running multiple
analyses that were outside the original intent injects bias into the process
• Assumption 3- e statistical analysis used the p-value as a rigid decision point
used to accept or reject the null hypothesis. Null statistical hypothesis testing
is a vital reasoning aspect in the use of frequentist statistical methods. We use
inductive reasoning to formulate research questions. When designing a research
study, we need to select which statistical tools will be used to answer each question before collecting the data. From the research questions, abductive reasoning
is used to generate the research/alternative hypotheses (what you expect to find).
is type of hypothesis generation creates a risk for confirmation bias. We must
always make sure that we are not starting with the answer to a question and
creating an environment that seeks to support that answer. e purpose of using
the null hypothesis is to prevent this reasoning error from occurring. Null statistical hypothesis testing is used to make the decision to accept or reject the null
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—NOTES—
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hypothesis. at is it! If you accept the null hypothesis, you are done. is means
that the research hypothesis has been falsified
• Assumption 4- e researcher made the decision of what is “meaningful” if statis-
tical significance is present (rejection of the null hypothesis) before collecting the
data. For example, if there is a statistically significant difference between the two
groups, is it larger than the measurement error of the instruments used to take
the measurements? Does the difference represent at least a moderate (0.50) effect
size? Is the difference larger than the minimal clinically important difference
(MCID) of the tools used to take the measurements?
• Assumption 5-e researcher reports the truth, the whole truth, and nothing
but the truth. “Spin” is defined as “specific reporting strategies used by authors
to convince readers that the beneficial effect of the treatment of interest is greater
than that shown by the results”
10
2.6 Bayesian Statistical Methodology
• e Bayesian approach is not a one and done approach like the frequentist ap-
11
proach
• It is an iterative process that uses prior knowledge and outcomes to construct the
probability of something being accurate or true (called a prior probability)
11
• It then collects data on that variable of interest. e data that are collected are
combined with the data from the prior probability to calculate the posterior
probability
11
• e posterior probability then becomes the prior probability for the next itera-
tion of data collection
11
• e posterior probability may vary significantly during the early iterations of the
process. e more iterations that are completed, the more stable the posterior
probabilities should become
• is is not a rigid process and, ultimately, gets at what the truth is probabilisti-
cally. is process is most like the clinical reasoning process that clinicians use
Establish the Rules, Play the Game, and Get the Results
2.7
• e decision of which statistics are going to be used to answer the research ques-
tions needs to be made before data collection (a priori). To minimize the risk of
a biased result, it is important to establish the rules for the game before you play
the game
• Establish the rules
1. What are the research questions that need to be answered?
2. What are the statistical analyses that I am going to use to answer the research
questions?
3. How am I going to create an unbiased sample of the population of interest?
4. How can I minimize bias while collecting the data?
• Play the game according to the established rules
• Analyze the data based on the established rules
• Get the results
What if you don’t like the results?
2.8
• e results are the results
• Disciplined researchers accept the results and move on
• Unfortunately, some researchers do not like the results, so they try and change
the rules to the game retrospectively after they have played the game
2.9 How can I tell if the researcher changed the rules to the game after getting the
result?
12
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• ere are several conscious and unconscious sources of post-randomization bias-
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es. Although a thorough discussion of these biases is outside the purview of this
monograph, we will discuss a conscious form of post-randomization bias called
12
“cherry-picking”.
literature as data dredging,
Cherry-picking has also been commonly referred to in the
13,14
but is most popularly identified as p-hacking.
15-17
A more detailed discussion of post-randomization biases can be found in an
editorial that was written by Cook and Garcia
12
• “Cherry picking” may be assessed by checking to see if the study is registered
and comparing the registry to what was reported in the study to ensure that the
12
author was following their prospective intent
• Authors will often tout statistically significant differences that are not meaningful
° What is the effect size, and is it meaningful?
° Are the differences larger than the MDC and MCID for the outcome measures
used?
• Are the authors reporting a result that is inconsistent with the prospective study
design and intent?
° For example, the purpose of a randomized clinical trial is to determine if
there is a statistically significant meaningful difference between the 2 treatment
groups of patients on the prospectively registered primary outcome measure.
If there are no statistically significant differences between these groups for the
primary outcome measure, do the authors focus on the secondary outcome
measures? Do the authors focus on reporting on within groups changes or run
a regression analysis to determine which variables were predictive of a result?
• Do the authors use “spin” by presenting the study’s findings in a positive light
that are inconsistent with the statistical findings?
18
—NOTES—
2.10 “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart
you are. If it doesn’t agree with the experiment, it’s wrong.” -Richard P.
Feynman
2.11 Current State of the Use of EBP in Physical erapy Practice
• As many as 25% of clinicians may not be able to identify the conventional defi-
nition of EBP
19
• Ninety percent of respondents reported that their knowledge of research meth-
ods was “strong” or “good” yet were less confident (76%) in their understanding
19
of statistical methods.
ese concepts go hand in hand. Research methods require that the clinician can make prospective choices regarding the analysis that
will be used to answer the research questions. ey also must be able to recognize
when an analysis was consciously changed by researchers that are “cherry-picking” results
12
• ere exist unnecessary delays with the implementation of the best available
20
evidence in physical therapy practice
2.12 Current State of the Use of EBP in Physical erapy Practice (Cont.)
• It has been shown that most clinicians do not follow evidence-based guidelines
21
when treating musculoskeletal conditions
• Physical therapists report they favor the use of EBP in the clinic, yet recognize
that they need to improve their knowledge, skills, and clinical application of
22,23
EBP
• It has been suggested that most clinicians cannot generate a clinically meaningful
question to drive effective searches for clinically relevant research, with reported
24
searches containing one or no elements of a PICO question
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13

—NOTES—
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2.13 What EBP Is
• EBP has evolved into a cliché.
25
Many students, clinicians, and academics routinely parrot the phrase, “EBP is the conscientious and judicious use of current
best evidence in conjunction with clinical expertise and patient values to guide
health care decisions.”
26
• In reality, EBP is a process that starts by asking a clinically meaningful question,
seeks to find the best available evidence that can be used to answer the question,
combines the best available evidence in the context of the clinician’s clinical experience, and the values of the patient, and evaluates the efficacy of the process
based on the patient’s response
27
• e commonly cited definition of EBP, therefore, is not a definition. It describes
the contextual elements for the application of the best available evidence after
procedural aspects have been followed to determine what the best available evidence is
27
• To be clear, the best available evidence first must be put in the context of a clin-
ically meaningful question, the highest level of evidence that can be found to
answer the questions has to be identified. e literature then must be critically
appraised to determine the external validity of the findings, and if the study has
a rigorous enough degree of internal validity to help answer the clinical question
2.14 What EBP is Not
• EBP does not start by generating a clinically meaningful answer, look for ev-
idence that supports the answer, ignore the importance of critical appraisal of
the literature if it does not support the answer, and then applies the evidence
supporting an answer in the context of clinician’s experience and values of the
patient
• If a clinician is incorporating this process in clinical practice, this is an example
of a cognitive bias known as confirmation bias. is process is not rational; it is
rationalizing
• EBP also does not involve removing the evidence from the EBP process and rely-
ing solely on clinical experience and patient values if the evidence is inconsistent
with the preconceived answer. is is a logical fallacy known as the fallacy of
incomplete evidence
2.15 “I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t
be questioned.” -Richard P. Feynman
What was the primary purpose of EBP?
2.16
• e whole purpose of EBP was to deemphasize dogma and “gurus” as a means of
informing clinical decisions
• One of the earliest manifestations of this was an editorial titled, “Science or
Cult?” that was published in PTJ in 1963. In this piece, Hislop stated, “Observations are the principal data of clinical science. Sometimes observations are
inaccurate and faulty. Inferences and concepts can arise from such observations
which also may be indefinite and confused. For persons not well grounded in
scientific thought and procedure, this kind of muddled thinking can result in the
indefensible error of offering explanation and rationalization of undocumented
and unproved theory.”
28
2.17 How can clinical expertise help us make our clinical decisions?
• In 1996 Sackett et al sought to clarify what clinical expertise was in EBP.
29
Sackett et al wrote, “By individual clinical expertise, we mean the proficiency
and judgment that individual clinicians acquire through clinical experience and
14
29
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clinical practice.”

• e notion that expertise is attained through experience and practice is likely
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not entirely accurate. e core dimensions of expert practice in physical therapy
have been described as patient-centered care that involves knowledge, virtues/
values, clinical reasoning, and clinical practice style that emphasizes education
30
and individual care
• Experienced clinicians use information from the medical records, protocols,
observation of movement, problem-solving, consideration of the patients psy-
31
cho-emotional and cognitive-perceptual ability, and reflection in action
2.18
How can patient values help us make our decisions?
• e factors that patients appear to value most are their interactions with their
clinician, the organization of the clinic that treatment is being provided, and
32,33
their clinical outcomes
• Incorporating patient values in the process of applying EBP may be more accu-
rately considered patient-centered care. Patient-centered care in physical therapy
involves individualized treatment options, continuous communication between
the patient and clinician, educating the patient during all phases of rehabilitation, establishing goals in collaboration with the patient, sensitivity of the clinician to environmental factors that need to be addressed to empower the patient,
and demonstrating clinical confidence through the demonstration of knowledge
34
and skill while providing care to the patient
• Patient satisfaction may be influenced by:
35
° clinical outcomes;
° the personality and clinical skill of the physical therapist;
° personality and contextual factors related to the patient;
° the interactions that occur between the physical therapist and the patient;
° how the treatment is provided; and
° the features of the clinic where the treatment is provided.
—NOTES—
3.1
Clinical Reasoning and Diagnosis
• Section 3
3.2
What are the challenges in applying clinical reasoning?
• Academic programs within the United States do not have a shared view of what
36
clinical reasoning is, how it should be taught, and how it should be assessed
• is variability and lack of agreement of what clinical reasoning is maybe consid-
37
erably limiting the progress of our profession
• Recent efforts have been made to clarify what clinical reasoning is based on the
38
literature
• is updated model discusses the collaborative interaction between the patient
and clinician, recognizes that clinical reasoning is an iterative, adaptive process,
and integrates perspectives, cognitive, affective, and psychomotor conceptional
38
elements
• What this model does not discuss or integrate are the different types of reasoning
or how the process of clinical reasoning may be performed within and between
38
treatment sessions
3.3 Additional Clinical Reasoning Challenges
• One of the significant challenges for any clinical reasoning approach in a clinical
or academic setting is how to account for the lack of certainty when combining
linear (Deductive) and non-linear (Inductive) reasoning processes when going
through the clinical reasoning process
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—NOTES—
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• Exam findings are not dichotomous. ey shift the probability of something
being true
3.4 Reasoning Strategies that are Used to Modify and Refine Hypotheses
• Interactive reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) involves strategic communica-
tion to establish a therapeutic alliance with the patient
39
• Collaborative reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) is the communicative process
used to ensure that the clinician’s values and beliefs align with the patient’s values
and beliefs
39
• Diagnostic reasoning (deductive) attempts to create a linear relationship between
the patient’s activity/participation restrictions, physical impairments, pathology
of body structures, pain mechanisms, personal factors, and environmental fac-
39
tors.
It includes the reasoning related to musculoskeletal pain irritability40
° Musculoskeletal pain irritability is related to the persistence of pain and the
aggravating activities that produce a patient’s symptoms.
41
is concept may
be an essential consideration as the clinician plans on how the data should be
collected during the physical exam to do the least amount of testing to attain
the most amount of information
• Narrative reasoning (inductive) is used to gather information related to personal
and environmental factors relevant to the patient
39
° is is established through open-ended questions and active listening strategies
that allow the patient to tell their story and experiences with their condition
that provides the contextual elements of their beliefs and culture without hypothesis testing
39
• Intervention procedures reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) includes the choice
and execution of interventions that should help the patient if the hypothesis
formulated is accurate
39
° is hypothesis testing strategy may include using a comparable sign related
to the patient’s primary symptoms as a test-retest strategy to determine if the
hypothesis is probabilistically accurate
40
° is may be considered a symptom modification process that tests an interven-
tion’s ability to change the patient’s symptoms
42
• Predictive reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) involves using musculoskeletal
pain irritability and the response of the hypothesis testing through intervention
during the first visit to establish a prognosis
39
° It also involves the process of assessing the patient’s 24- to 48-hour response to
the intervention provided and develops reasoning related to how the prognosis
is modified if the patient is better, worse, or the same at the second visit
3.5 Additional Reasoning Considerations
• Additional reasoning considerations outside hypothesis generation, hypothesis
modification, and hypothesis testing involve the reasoning used to educate the
patient and ethical reasoning
• Patient education reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) involves formulating dif-
ferent ways to educate the patient and ensuring that the education was received
by the patient
39
• Ethical reasoning (deductive and/or inductive) involves doing what is in the best
interest of the patient given the best available information
39
3.6 Bayesian Reasoning
• A possible solution to the integration of deductive and inductive clinical reason-
ing processes may be integrating the concepts of Bayesian reasoning into clinical
training
• Bayesian reasoning involves the application of probability theory to deductive
and inductive reasoning
16
43
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• As data are progressively collected, it shifts the probability that something is true
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• ere is a growing body of literature to support that theoretical instruction in
Bayesian concepts improves the estimation of post-test probabilities during the
reasoning process
44-46
3.7 Additional Common Reasoning Errors
• To optimize clinical reasoning, the clinician must recognize common errors in
the clinical reasoning process
• e two major categories of errors in clinical reasoning are related to logical
fallacies and cognitive biases
—NOTES—
What Causes Errors in Clinical Reasoning?
3.8
47,48
• Inadequate knowledge
• Faulty data gathering
• Faulty data processing
• Faulty metacognition
• e inability to recognize logically fallacious thinking and cognitive biases
3.9 Common Errors in Narrative (Inductive) Reasoning
49
• Superficial psychosocial assessment
• Attempting to use a deductive approach to narrative (inductive) process
• False dichotomy (this or that)
3.10 Where does the clinical reasoning process start?
• e clinical reasoning process starts with, evolves through, and ultimately ends
with the patient
• To attain accurate information from the patient, the patient must be central
during the clinical reasoning process
• How the clinician interacts with the patient, therefore, may be crucial to the de-
velopment, refinement, and testing of hypotheses related to the patient’s primary
symptomatic complaint
3.11
Creating a Patient-Centered Environment
• e significant factors that influence the patient-clinician interaction are
50
:
° e physical therapists interpersonal and communication skills
° e physical therapist clinical skills
° Individualized patient-centered care that takes the thoughts and opinions of the
patient into account
° e time the clinician spends with the patient as well as flexibility with sched-
uling clinical appointments
Patient Expectation and Outcome
3.12
• A patient’s expectation may have a considerable impact on clinical outcomes,
and how the examination, evaluation, and treatment is explained to the patient
may have a meaningful effect on the patient’s expectation and clinical outcomes
• An understanding of the contextual factors of the patient-clinical interaction
related to communication may be an essential aspect to consider that may not be
currently present in clinical training
3.13 What is a therapeutic alliance?
• A therapeutic alliance is a relationship between the physical therapist and the
patient that involves mutual agreement on clinical goals and the interventions
that will be used to attain those goals
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53,54
51,52
55,56
57
17

—NOTES—
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3.14 Establishing a erapeutic Alliance
58,59
• Although evidence is lacking in musculoskeletal rehabilitation,
establishing
a strong therapeutic alliance with the patient may have a significant impact on
57,60-63
pain outcomes
and patient satisfaction64
• erapeutic alliance may be enhanced through active listening strategies, chang-
ing the tone and inflection of voice, using nonverbal behaviors, and demonstrat-
63
ing empathy
3.15
How to Establish a Diagnosis
• Classically diagnostic reasoning is a deductive process that is based on a medical
pathoanatomical model
• e purpose of a diagnosis is to create homogeneous subgroups of patients and
match that subgroup of patients with interventions that are most likely to improve the patient’s symptoms
3.16
Diagnostic Assumptions
• e primary assumption in the medical literature is that a diagnosis is a deductive
process
• is assumption requires a cause and effect relationship between pathoanatomy
and the patient’s primary symptomatic complaint
• is may not always be accurate in physical therapy practice
• It is more likely to be true when dealing with conditions outside the axial skel-
eton and less likely to be true when treating spinal conditions secondary to the
convergence of several nerves in this region
• For example, there is considerable overlap between pain referral patterns from
65-70
the lumbar disc, lumbar facets, the sacroiliac joint (SIJ), and the hip
that
make it difficult to ascertain the potential cause of a patient’s symptoms based on
symptom location
71
3.17 Deductive Errors Related to Diagnosis
• Given that over-focus on early/superficial recognition is self-evident, and that
premature anchoring has already been discussed, premature closure is when the
clinician fails to consider other alternatives after the initial diagnosis is made
• e framing effect occurs when the clinician may frame the question in the posi-
tive or in the negative related to the patient. When this happens, people typically
are looking to avoid the negative by framing something in the positive or look
for risk when framing something in the negative
• Commission bias occurs when somebody erroneously thinks that they need to
use a specific intervention to make the patient feel better when they may likely
just get better as a result of natural recovery
• An extrapolation error occurs when you extend previous and occurring events
into those that may arise in the future
• Verification bias occurs when the results of a single diagnostic test keep the
clinician from selecting a more accurate test
3.18 Diagnostic Reasoning and Physical erapy Practice
• Physical therapy clinical practice guidelines suggest diagnostic classification
based on:
° Pathoanatomy and e International Classification of Disease (ICD)
° e International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF)
3.19 What are the requirements of a diagnostic system that is used to classify and
18
72
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treat patients?

• It must be able to discriminate between groups of patients
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• It needs to be comprehensive in its ability to classify all patients and create mu-
tually exclusive groups
• It should not have subgroups that patients never or rarely fit into
• Any system that does not meet these criteria has significantly limited clinical
utility
• To date, there are no known classification systems that satisfy these criteria
73-76
3.20 Challenges With ese Classification Systems
• Pathoanatomical findings are common in the asymptomatic healthy population
• Identifying impairments does not create a deductive link between the assessment
and the diagnosis, the diagnosis and the treatment, and the treatment and the
outcome (ADTO)
3
• Given that there are several overlapping potential sources of symptoms that may
be synchronous in patients who have musculoskeletal symptoms, it may not be
realistic that a linear deductive approach can be used to establish an anatomical
diagnosis for patients that are under the care of a physical therapist
• I am therefore going to discuss a hypothesis-driven, probabilistic, mecha-
nism-based clinical reasoning approach to managing patients that eliminates the
challenges related to using any single diagnostic paradigm
• Without the ability to first determine if the patient’s primary symptoms are mod-
ifiable through mechanical input, it becomes challenging to create a link between
the diagnosis and the treatment
—NOTES—
3.21 A Symptom Modification Approach
• e primary goal of a symptom modification approach is to reduce symptoms
and to improve function using a variety of clinical approaches
42
• In cases where a patient’s symptoms are modifiable during the physical exam, a
symptom modification approach
42
may help create a deductive link between the
patient’s diagnosis and intervention most likely to improve their primary complaint at any given time
3.22
Value of a Symptom Modification Approach
42
• Pain relief may be the desired outcome for many patients
• Reducing the experience of pain with simultaneous improvement in function
may contribute to reducing the impact of the negative influences of fear-avoidance beliefs, kinesiophobia, and catastrophizing while improving the positive
aspects of self-efficacy
• Educating the patient that their symptoms are modifiable, especially in the con-
text that they can modify them, may be a powerful tool for treatment compliance
• If symptoms are reduced, the patient may be able to introduce functional tasks
to help further modulate symptoms
3.23 Uncertainties With a Symptom Modification Approach
42
• Having a patient focus on symptoms may not be prudent in the context of cen-
trally or peripherally mediated symptoms
• It is unknown how long symptom modification must persist to be clinically
meaningful
• It is unknown if symptom modification is even necessary
• ere are other considerations beyond symptom relief that may be important for
the patient, such as improvements in function
• Modification of biomechanics may be beneficial for other reasons beyond symp-
tom modification
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4.1 Integration of Clinical Reasoning Concepts and Suggestions for Improvement
• Section 4
4.2 How do we work through the problem?
4.3 Step 1 of 4-What is the dominant mechanism that is driving the patient symp-
77
toms?
4.4 Potential Mechanisms-Based Sources of Symptoms
• Smart and colleagues identified 3 possible sources of a patient’s symptoms
through a mechanisms-based classification for musculoskeletal pain that included
° Central sensitization
° Peripheral neuropathic (radicular or referred)
° Nociceptive
80
78
79
• ey have also established the discriminative validity of these 3 pain mecha-
81
nisms
4.5 Refinement of the Mechanism-Based Model
82
• Chimenti et al82 modified the work of Smart and colleagues by:
° Changing the name of the central sensitization classification to nociplastic
° Placing each mechanism in an overlapping Venn diagram to illustrate that all
3 sources of symptoms may occur at the same time
° Putting the interaction of these classifications in the context of the movement
system and psychosocial factors
82
° Linking these mechanisms to physical therapy interventions that may be most
appropriate to address the patients symptoms
82
• Generating a hypothesis related to the mechanism of the patient’s dominant
mechanism at any given time and then attempting to modify their symptoms by
testing the hypothesis with an exam strategy or intervention that should improve
their symptoms may provide a robust and reasoned approach when applied iteratively within and between treatment sessions
4.6 Nociplastic (Central Sensitization)
73
77
• In the absence of red flag findings, nociplastic symptoms are characterized by
pain that is disproportionate, non-mechanical, unpredictable, and diffuse
78
• Patients that have nociplastic symptoms have a strong association with maladap-
tive behaviors related to the presence of negative beliefs (fear-avoidance), lack
of positive beliefs related to self-efficacy, and dyskinetic movement related to
kinesiophobia
78
• is cluster of findings was found to have a sensitivity of 91.8% and a specificity
of 97.7%
78
• If a patient has nociplastic mediated pain, it is expected that the physical exam
may not significantly change the patient’s primary symptomatic complaints
• ese findings strongly suggest that the patient should be educated that their
pain experience may not be driven through mechanical input, especially early
during the rehabilitation process
77
• e focus should be on using techniques to increase the patient’s function with-
out increasing their symptoms
77
• Numerous techniques have been proposed to be useful in this context. e
method that matches the patient’s and clinician’s beliefs is likely the best choice
of intervention at any given time
77
20
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